Could abortion flip a red Senate seat blue in Florida?

[In It to Win It]

POLITICO

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell was brutally ousted from her seat representing Florida in the U.S. House in 2020. She’s plotting her revenge — in the form of a Senate bid.

Mucarsel-Powell, a native of Ecuador who migrated to the U.S. when she was 14, thinks she can oust the former two-term Florida governor, Republican Sen. Rick Scott.

Why? She says Floridians are fed up with abortion restrictions, and she’s aiming to tie her campaign to a ballot initiative to enshrine a right to abortion into the state constitution — though it still needs to hold up against the Florida Supreme Court to appear on the ballot in November.

“That ballot initiative has over 150,000 signatures from Republican voters here in the state of Florida,” she tells Women Rule in an interview. “This is a purple state.”

If Florida is purple, it’s certainly been taking on a more maroon hue in the recent elections.

In 2020, Florida was one of two states where Donald Trump performed better than he did in 2016. And in 2022, Democrat Val Demings challenged incumbent Marco Rubio for his Senate seat, losing by a whopping 16 points. Gov. Ron DeSantis also won reelection by a 20-point landslide against Democratic challenger and former Gov. Charlie Crist.

But she is the first Democrat to run for Senate in Florida since DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban — and Floridians have a complex relationship with reproductive rights.

[OnDoutside]

1. South American Spanish speaking pro choice Latina

Not a bad combination at all, but does she stand a chance even in the Dem primary ?

[Aristus]

2. I'm not Hispanic, but I have seen that it's not necessarily a unifying factor.

I've known Cubans who didn't like Puerto Ricans, who didn't like Mexicans, who didn't like Latin Americans, etc.

[Pacifist Patriot]

4. It's absolutely not.

[Jose Garcia]

6. She has a pretty clear path to the nomination

The General Election will be difficult considering how red the state has been trending and Scott's ability to self-finance.

[brooklynite]

7. Who would she lose to in the Primary?

[Diamond_Dog]

3. It seems to me

That although abortion access is pretty much desired by the majority of people, it’s not a big enough issue to flip an anti-choice R seat to D. Probably most R men just write it off as a “women’s’ issue”. “Doesn’t affect me so I don’t care.” I hope I’m wrong.

[Pacifist Patriot]

5. I'm hoping it was a slap across GOP female faces and will get them to stop voting against their own interests.

I have my doubts and my hopes.

[mahina]

8. I miss Val Demmings. Hope she returns.

[wryter2000]

9. Me, too

She was one of the good ones

[rubbersole]

10. Florida is ripe for the blue tsunami.

People of all stripes are disgusted by desantis. Even magats. I play golf with 2 antique repubs on Wednesdays...they have granddaughters and get what's happening because of them. Anecdotal for sure, but it offends thinking people when rights are on the line.

[et tu]

11. yes!

[pwb]

12. Women do not forget losing freedoms.

We win big all over red America. IMO.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

15. But do they forget WINNING freedoms?

I worry that the abortion issue is no longer the big poll draw that it once was, in MI, OH, anywhere that won an amendment to the state constitution guaranteeing the right to an abortion.

gotv

[ShazzieB]

17. I don't know why it wouldn't still be a big draw.

In the area of reproductive rights, things are getting worse instead of better in states like Florida all the time.

Even those of us in "safe" blue states will be in danger soon if enough of the wrong people get
elected.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

18. I hear you. I just don't see the same level of excitement around here.

Maybe after the Lions' season is over ...

[rubbersole]

19. The Lions deserve more success. Not because their fans have suffered since the dawn of time...

..but because they're good and fun to watch. With a great coach. I live in Florida and like all our teams (college especially). The Bucs are 'hot' and Mayfield is impressive. But my $10 is on Detroit. 🏈🦁🥳

[ShazzieB]

20. I'm sure it varies from place to place.

And it's probably affected by what else is going on (like the Lions). But I'm pretty sure it's still a big deal in a lot of places.

I don't really know that much about the situation in Florida, except that they keep tightening their abortion laws more and more. I can't help but think there must be SOME concern about it down there. At least I sure hope so!

[pwb]

21. Abortion and sports eh?

Women will vote against pukes in every state regardless of what their state abortion law is. Do you think women will vote for pukes in states like New York that have laws protecting women's freedoms? No this is personal, all over the country woman are forming up.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

23. No, I don't think women will vote for repugs in greater numbers.

But I'm not seeing the same level of excitement about GOTV, registration, etc, as there was during the election that approved the amendment to the state constitution.

I hope you're right. I hope women are "forming up" to vote D.

[TurboDem]

13. Along with abortion she needs to pound the hell out of him about

wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare. If she does that I really think she can give him a run for his money!

[Tribetime]

14. Hopefully it will also give Biden four more years

[ShazzieB]

16. I applaud her for ztepping up to the plate.

I don't know what it would take to dislodge Rick Scott, but if she's got the moxie to give it a shot, good for her!

[mcar]

22. She's a good candidate

It all depends on Democratic and NPA turnout here. It was abysmal in 2022. We are working hard to change that - and if the RWNJ FL Supreme Court allows the abortion and legalized pot amendments on the ballot (they should bc they both comply with the law, but...).