Biden Has a Michigan Problem

[applegrove]

Biden Has a Michigan Problem

January 21, 2024 at 10:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard 75 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/01/21/biden-has-a-michigan-problem/

"SNIP..........

“Michigan is flashing warning signs for President Biden’s re-election bid,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Top Democrats in this state that will help decide the presidential race are sounding alarms about recent polls showing Biden trailing Donald Trump, the Republican presidential front-runner, by nearly double-digits. Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is seeking to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in the state’s Senate race, has expressed concerns that Biden’s bad poll numbers could hurt her race and other down-ballot contests, according to people who have spoken with her.”

“Biden is working to shore up his support in the state, including with overtures to its more than 300,000 auto workers. He is expected to address the United Auto Workers at its political conference in Washington, according to people familiar with the plans, in an effort to secure the union’s endorsement as soon as this week. White House aides have said Biden plans to return to Michigan before the Feb. 27 primary.”

.........SNIP"

[Ocelot II]

1. Says the Wall Street Urinal, the source of this article.

Got a few grains of salt to sprinkle on Murdoch's rag?

[dchill]

56. REC'D for correct pronunciation!

😁

[brooklynite]

69. Are you saying the story isn't true?

Elissa Slotkin isn't worried?

[bigtree]

80. is it just this republican rag's opinion pieces that we should accept as 'true'

...or should we just let any republican mouthpiece tell us about the state of our race in Michigan?


from the Michigan Democratic Party:

“Let’s be clear, this poll — like all polls right now — are noisy and non-predictive. Michigan Dems’ program to re-elect President Biden and Vice President Harris isn’t designed to win the next poll; it’s to win this November.

"What we know is that it’s January 2024, and the voters who decide this election are not thinking about the choice that will be on the ballot come November.

"We also must remember the facts about this poll, it was conducted by a longtime Republican operative whose similar poll underestimated President Obama’s margin of victory in Michigan by seven points in 2012.

"Our focus and energy right now is squarely on laying the foundation for what the choice will be in November. We know Michiganders are mobilized around the President's agenda of creating jobs, fighting for freedom, and protecting our democracy. That's how we got a Democratic trifecta in Lansing -- and that's how we'll win Michigan again in November."

Tommy Kubitschek, spokesperson for the Michigan Democratic Party

...who the fuck here believes a word out of Slotkin's mouth?

[brooklynite]

82. I do... because I know Slotkin.

I met her in 2018 during her first campaign and have kept in touch with her. She's notable for winning -- and holding -- a seat with a large proportion of Republican rural voters. Her perspective on the potential State vote in November is worth considering.

[bigtree]

84. that's no excuse for bringing republican news org propaganda against Democrats here.

...this is what I understand Slotkin is saying, and I didn't need a republican newspaper posting anonymous gossip to tell me this.

Slotkin calls for ‘new blood’ in Democratic Party but says she will support Biden if he runs in 2024

“I’ve been very vocal, including with my own leadership in the House, that we need a new generation, new blood – period, across the Democratic Party, in the House, the Senate and the White House,” she continued. “But if the sitting President of the United States decides to run, we’re going to support him.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/09/politics/biden-2024-elissa-slotkin/index.html

...hopefully she's not actually one of those folks who think openly disparaging the president's chances in her state is some kind of political genius strategy.

This WSJ gossip isn't a direct quote, it's an opportunistic slam from some weasel undermining her.

[brooklynite]

90. But you criticized Slotkin personally...

who the fuck here believes a word out of Slotkin's mouth

[bigtree]

92. nice try, angling to make Slotkin the issue here

...when you know she has nothing to do with whether this is propaganda from a known republican news org.

That's all the Slotkin you're going to get from me.

[H2O Man]

124. I agree about the WSJ.

But I think Elissa Slotkin is a valid source. There are states where the polls are not positive right now. But this is January, and there is time between now and the election. Things change, and I am confident that with hard work at the grass roots level, we can crush the defendant in the general election.

Polls can be useful but they aren't always providing accurate pictures.

[bigtree]

125. yeah, Slotkin is a peach

...but the poster is trying to divert from their defense of this catapulting of WSJ anti- Biden propaganda with this concern about what this person WSJ dredged up says she thinks.

Would that it had actually incuded a poll, instead of this sloppy sourcing and opinion presented as analysis.

Whatever Slotkin thinks is irrelevant. She is publicly supporting the president, and this WSJ hit piece supposed that anonymous sources telling us what she believes is more credible than what she actually says.

It doesn't take much imagination to envision that meme spreading like truth on forums like this. Indeed, that is the reason this WSJ report used this anonymous snake who presumed to speak for her.

I'm not going to even pause a second to think that the congresswoman was using the WSJ to start a whispering campaign of woe in Michigan about Pres. Biden.

I'm less concerned with what the WSJ says she thinks, than what she actually says. Some folks here's mileage may vary.

Best regards.

[H2O Man]

162. I hear you!

And agree.

[marble falls]

135. Useless polls are distracting us. Maybe the polls are suggesting Joe should go MAGA? Ignore the polls and ...

... let's keep up the work of re-electing Biden/Harris.

[qazplm135]

178. I'm sure she is worried

Michigan was close the last two times, there's no reason it won't be close this time, so yeah, everyone should be "worried" because it could go either way just like the last two times.

Polls right now aren't particularly meaningful. They just aren't. Whether they say Trump is up OR Biden is up.

Having said that, the reality remains that either candidate can win Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, or Arizona. PA and NV probably lean D but could go the other way. NC leans R but could go the other way.

It's going to be a long and hard fight. So folks need to stop freaking out about this poll or that poll and roll up their sleeves knowing it's going to be a hard fight regardless of what the polls say. No one is running away with these states. Not Trump, not Biden, which means Biden has a chance in every single one and we need to do what we can to maximize it.

[Yoyoyo77]

127. Michigan is a top state for arab american immigrants,

Michigan is also one of the states with the most Ukrainian immigrants, how much would the two voting blocks offset each other?

[elias7]

133. And then there's TFG who wants to ban Muslims

I imagine the Arab American population does not appreciate the two options to choose between.

[LeftInTX]

183. They probably won't vote. Too many low info voters don't think. We've seen it too many times.

They came out for Biden in 2020. But they will likely just not vote at all. This will hurt Biden.

[FSogol]

190. Gosh, the Library opened early today!

so long

[brush]

2. Joe has very popular Dem. Gov. Whitmer on his side so I'd disregard WSJ bs.

[Quixote1818]

3. Then why is Biden up by 4 in the latest Michigan poll?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

[applegrove]

6. But only in one poll. Look down the list of polls. Trump wins in most

of them. Sticking our heads in the sand is not going to help.

[bigtree]

15. the rest are Detroit News polls which has endorsed republicans for almost 150 years

from the Michigan Democratic Party:

“Let’s be clear, this poll — like all polls right now — are noisy and non-predictive. Michigan Dems’ program to re-elect President Biden and Vice President Harris isn’t designed to win the next poll; it’s to win this November.

"What we know is that it’s January 2024, and the voters who decide this election are not thinking about the choice that will be on the ballot come November.

"We also must remember the facts about this poll, it was conducted by a longtime Republican operative whose similar poll underestimated President Obama’s margin of victory in Michigan by seven points in 2012.

"Our focus and energy right now is squarely on laying the foundation for what the choice will be in November. We know Michiganders are mobilized around the President's agenda of creating jobs, fighting for freedom, and protecting our democracy. That's how we got a Democratic trifecta in Lansing -- and that's how we'll win Michigan again in November."

Tommy Kubitschek, spokesperson for the Michigan Democratic Party

...no one wins by focusing on negative articles and negative polls. It's certainly not some genius organizing strategy.

[TexasDem69]

26. Detroit News had Hillary beating Trump by 10 points

In October 2016. So maybe its polls suck but those polls aren’t manipulated to favor Republicans.

[bigtree]

34. yeah, their polls suck

...and their readership is republican.

Why is anyone here relying on their polls?

More importantly why is DU stuck in discussing 'Biden down in Michigan' based on a WSJ opinion article?

Really not interested in defenses of republican news orgs pontificating and polling about our Democratic president.

What the fuck do people here expect them to put in their papers?

[edisdead]

45. How does pointing out that they had a flawed poll boost their integrity?

Confused.

[JohnSJ]

22. That is correct, and it is concerning. That being said, the actually race for president isn't yet in

full effect, and once Super Tuesday is over, I suspect it will start.

[Midnight Writer]

77. Yes, many people are not truly paying attention yet.

The reason we spend billions on campaigns is because they can shift numbers like these.

Campaigns work.

[Blaukraut]

4. What is he supposed to do?

He can't drop 20 years. He can't shout over the 24/7 lies fed to the public via news and social media. He can't out-Trump Trump with appealing to the lowest common denominator.

Biden has been the best president in my adult life, but I seem to be in the minority of folks who think so. What is it going to take for him to break through this damn brain fog that seems to have the US population firmly in its grip?

[womanofthehills]

23. The Middle East is exploding

He needs to promote a ceasefire. Many old folks are ok with wars - but the young aren’t esp seeing dead & injured Gaza kids on their phones everyday.

[TexasDem69]

27. No, he needs to go all in on supporting Israel's

Efforts to eradicate Hamas’ rapists and murderers. Hamas is no better than Nazis.

[Beakybird]

55. If the Middle East is at war, it's going to send up the price of gas and everything else.

There might be other ways of containing Hamas short of a protected street to street combat.

[KPN]

134. In order to win MI? He needs to call for Netanyahu's resignation

over indiscriminate destruction of Gaza, and 100% back a two state solution, while at the same time supporting the goal of eradicating Hamas without harming innocent Palestinians if he wants to shore up his and down ticket support in Michigan. Hamas is one thing. The Palestinian people and the American Muslim community in Michigan are another.

Or we could just 🙈 🙉🙊 and risk losing.

[womanofthehills]

191. The country is very divided on this

Now that Israel is being accused of genocide and thousand of young are marching all over the world every weekend, totally supporting Netanyahu might not be a good political move - let alone a humanitarian one.

[MistakenLamb]

160. the youth are calling Hamas justified for 10/7

[betsuni]

119. +1

[DFW]

5. I really get the impression that the "news" media is becoming less and less a purveyor of news

And more and more a conduit of slanted points of view, donning an undeserved label of objectivity that is in no way justified.

[emulatorloo]

7. Well we know the WSJ is just a hi-brow version of Fox.

Same owner, same sewage.

[DFW]

14. But, alas, no longer alone in carrying Republican water

That is a huge difference over 2o years ago.

[JustAnotherGen]

50. Excellent observation eom

[bigtree]

20. why is this republican rag bashing Biden allowed here?

...inquiring minds would like to know?

[womanofthehills]

39. It's not about bashing Biden - it's about the scary news of Trump

polling high in states that previously voted for Biden.
Trump has big leads in states Biden won (AZ & Georgia). We need to take this very seriously and not put our head in the sand until it’s too late.

I think getting out of wars could help with the youth vote. And - the border needs to be dealt with somehow. I feel sad for all the families & little kids coming over but Trump will use that big time.
Trump is dumb but Ramaswamy isn’t (sleezy but not dumb) & now on Podcasts I hear he’s advising Trump on how to attract the young.

[edisdead]

49. what do you suggest we do?

Are you already phone banking and door knocking in MI? Are you writing post cards? Are you doing much other than hand wringing and being very concerned?

If Joe were to rewrite our Israel and effectively our middle east policy how do you think that plays out in the media? How do you think the GOP runs with that?

This election comes down to, do you want a ham or a shit sandwich. If you can’t figure it out nobody is going to convince you to not eat shit.

[bigtree]

66. no. It's about a known republican news paper's opinion piece spreading negative propaganda about Biden

...and folks here thinking this is some genius political strategy enabling them here on a Democratic message board.

[sheshe2]

152. I don't watch the polls.

The youth vote, I prefer to listen to young activists such as Victor Shi.

[applegrove]

71. So we cannot post any bad news and discuss ways to

make it better?

[bigtree]

83. that's not what's happening

...you've catapaulted a known republican rag's opinion piece onto a Democratic message board and you want Democrats here to debate and handwring over it.

You got my opinion of it, but you apparently want some kind of affirmation from me of this deliberately anti-Biden article like the Democratic party needs the opinion of Trump-coddling conservatives.

I think you should be ashamed pushing this falderal here.

[Demsrule86]

140. Honestly, this doesnt qualify as news- it is opinion and I dont think

It needs to be posted here.

[kelly1mm]

126. 'These are not the droids we are looking for ..... move along, move along..... ' nt

[womanofthehills]

24. The young are not into traditional cable news

Young people I know get all their news from social media on their phones. Few will put down their phone to watch a cable news show. Some are into the independent journalists who have no sponsors to placate.

Podcasts, TicToc, YouTube, Reddit, Twitter. Everyone in the world has a cell phone & we can now follow journalists from around the world and get a more balanced view. I’m older but I haven’t had a tv in over 10 yrs because I find info on the net more interesting.

[yellowdogintexas]

107. Give a listen to Bob Cesca's interview with Rachel Bitcofer

It is a very interesting conversation about polls, what they mean now, what we need to be doing (getting out our vote)

She is a political scientist and very smart.

[shrike3]

157. Social media is crap when it comes to purveying news.

One of the reasons people believe all kinds of crazy things. That said, using new forms of media would be one of the better ways to reach younger people. Give them actual facts if they'll listen.

Problem with independent journalists: some, not all, have an axe to grind. They may not have sponsors, but they have a POV, and may well ignore anything that conflicts with that POV. I read independent journalists myself, but as with everything else, I try to take a look at what they're trying to achieve.

[shrike3]

156. You too, eh?

Last edited Mon Jan 22, 2024, 04:57 PM - Edit history (1)

I pick through everything that I read these days. Who is this person, who do they write for and what is their agenda? Cable news is utterly useless, it is all a big show. There are a few print sources I trust, but again, I have to consider bias.

I used to work in media, and narratives form. I've been in the room when it's happened. I haven't worked in elite newsrooms, but I don't imagine they're much different. Somebody says ahead of time "the story is this," and that's what they chase. Any information which counters that narrative is downplayed or, sometimes, dismissed. A lot of it is laziness. A writer for Salon actually said that quiet part out loud: it's just easier. You know ahead of time what the story's going to be, you know how to play it, plan for it. Easier on the news-gatherer: they know what to look for.

[DFW]

182. Hard to overlook

I live in Germany, and what a difference.

My dad was a prominent member of the Washington print press, was there for 50 years, and was President of the Gridiron Club. It's not like I wasn't in the thick of it for decades. I probably spent more time in the Senate Press Gallery as a kid than anyone who was NOT a reporter or a Senator. I know what was what then, and what is not now.

[uponit7771]

8. Yawn, more high MOE / low sample / GQP weighted polls

[Silent3]

13. If other elected and insider Democrats are concerned, it's no yawning matter

Do you really think you know better than they do the significance of the polls? Those other Democrats aren't so smart, like you apparently are, to say "more high MOE / low sample / GQP weighted polls" and somehow know there's nothing to worry about?

[uponit7771]

17. I trust Biden's campaign polling ***SCIENCE*** and their actions that don't show such concern in Michigan article does

[bigtree]

18. lol, 'elected and insider Democrats'

...that's just tongue-wagging gossip.

The 'significance' of this opinion piece is it's value to those who want to spend their time claiming there's something wrong with the president and party, instead of highlighting the president's strengths.

This fellow Taggard at 'Political Wire' is keen to the effect of propaganda, obligingly posting a 'Biden doomed' blurb from a paywalled Wall Street Journal opinion piece, and some Duers are keen to catapault that propaganda here.

Folks justifying their handwringing off of a clearly conservative rag's anti-Biden article ought to be ashamed to do that on a Democratic message board.

[edisdead]

54. So other than the one noted person

Why are all three paragraphs wrapped in quotation marks with no attribution to a person being quoted?

[womanofthehills]

44. We should not Yawn

This is worrisome and maybe the Dems need some new people to run Biden’s campaign.

[uponit7771]

63. No it's not, too little specifics and few to no solid sources. When JB changes tactics in state I'll look

[BlueIdaho]

87. What are you personally going to do

To improve President Biden’s chances for success in 2024 - and writing things on Democratic boards doesn’t count as action.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. So the folks who elected Whitmer are going to reject Biden?

I don’t think so.

Of course, Biden shouldn’t take any state in the Rust Belt for granted, but I think framing it as a “MIchigan problem” is hyperbole.

[Bucky]

10. States swing all the time. Don't fool yourself into thinking the political world is binary.

Overconfidence killed us in 2016 and then went on to kill about a million more Americans than necessary with a nearly ignored virus in 2020.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. That's my point- this isn't binary, overconfident vs. "MIchigan problem"

Biden can campaign strategically in MIchigan, but I haven’t seen any evidence that any Pearl-clutching is warranted, and the strong support for Whitmer’s aggressive progressive governance, along with indicators that folks are finally recognizing the benefits of Bidenomics, would seem to indicate a favourable foundation for Biden’s MI campaign.

[brush]

33. Yep, and trump ignored the virus, but wants everyone to forget his part in millions of Americans dying.

[Bucky]

43. Trump's not just fooling dumb people.

Smart people, clearheaded successful business people, college graduates, lawyers and doctors and hardworking blue collar heads of households are being fooled and are rationalizing that Trump's bluster and "exaggerating" and pugnacious style is just the "shock that the system needs" to start working right. It's annoying and mindnumbingly naive, but millions of people are giving up on old fashioned American republicanism and civic virtues.

I think we'll outvote them (barely) this time around, even if we don't win back the House, but the long term consequences to what Trump is only a symptom of is troubling. People are forgetting because they want to forget. I think pearl-clutching is more than justified.

[brush]

46. RIght. We outnumber the criminal defendants supporters. And women are still pissed about him bragging...

about taking away abortion rights.

[TexasDem69]

28. Why do you think the folks who elected Trump in 2016

Won’t do so again?

[brush]

35. Because he lost in 2020 by an even larger margin, remember that?

[MyNameIsJonas]

48. It's not 2020 anymore.

Biden is way more unpopular than he was in 2020.

And that was an election he won by only about 40,000 votes among a handful of states.

As much as Trump has been dinged by all the chaos around him personally, Biden's extremely strong negative ratings are almost neutralizing Trump's weaknesses.

Biden absolutely is handicapped by his current perception as a president struggling. That wasn't there in 2020. In fact, that was Trump's weaknesses.

[brush]

52. It's even farther from 2016, which is before trump became a criminal defendant indicted for 91 felonies.

And also now women are still pissed that the criminal defendant is bragging about snatching away abortion rights. But keep on pitching for the criminal defendant on this Democratic site. What side are you on?

[MyNameIsJonas]

57. None of that changes the fact Biden has extremely bad numbers.

There's a reason most polls have him losing Michigan. It's not that Trump is somehow more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020. It's that many who voted for Biden in 2020 have decided they won't vote for him in November.

And they're leaning voting third party.

[brush]

59. We still outnumber magats. And Biden will beat your favorite again. But keep rooting for the defendant.

[MyNameIsJonas]

61. I'm not cheering for that. I'm just not burying my head in the sand.

It's plenty clear Biden's biggest challenge is going to be winning over those who are thinking of voting third party. It doesn't matter if the anti-Trump vote outnumbers the MAGA vote if 10% of the vote goes to a third party candidate.

In that scenario, Trump just needs to win the percentage of voters he won in 2020 and he wins.

[brush]

62. Everyone of your posts are touting trump's advantages. Remember this is a site promoting Dem candidates...

not the advantages of magats.

Maybe try mentioning how Biden's policies have bought down inflation way lower here than the rest of Western countries, how he's united and re-energized NATO, has lowered gas prices by half in many states, his infrastructure projects are providing millions of good paying jobs in many states, including red ones, he's help many students pay back student loans, he's also fighting for democracy and not favoring fascism like trump is...come on tout positive realities that are happening in the nation and stop touting trump's imagined advantages.

[MyNameIsJonas]

85. This is a lie.

I never said Trump had an advantage. I only said Biden's disadvantage compared to 2020 is his low popularity. That's it. You're going off on things that don't have anything to do with the post.

Don't try to convince me Biden's a better option than Trump. I am already going to vote for Biden. But right now there's a lot of people who voted for him in 2020 who are thinking of voting third party.

And that makes Biden vulnerable and it does no one any good to deny these issues.

[brush]

97. Again, try posting the positive things Biden has done for a change, not all negative pls.

[MyNameIsJonas]

114. I have in plenty of threads. This thread is about a problem he's facing.

It does no good to be a Pollyanna.

You want to bury your head in the sand. That's fine. I won't be joining you. I see a lot of problems Biden has to overcome. I am confident he will but those problems exist and just focusing on the positive ain't going to solve 'em.

[brush]

115. You do what you do, and so will I. Biden will beat the crminal defendant once again.

[MyNameIsJonas]

121. I hope so. But he isn't right now. And that should concern a lot of people.

Hubris is what gave us Trump in the first place. I might not have posted back in 2016 but I read a lot of posts and there were people convinced there was no chance in hell Trump could win.

Throw in a strong third party this November and there's absolutely a chance. The one constant has been Trump's support. He doesn't lose it. In fact, between 2016 and 2020, his support nationally increased by nearly a point. The only reason he won in 2016 was because of a strong third party campaign between Johnson and Stein. And a big reason he lost in 2020 is because the third party support collapsed and went to Biden.

Polls are pretty clear that at the moment, Americans are rejecting both Trump and Biden in higher numbers than they did even in 2016. But Trump's support isn't the one taking a hit - Biden's is.

Biden received 51% of the popular vote in 2020.

In the most recent Harvard-Harris poll of Biden-Trump-Kennedy, Biden's at 36%. That's a drop of 15 points from his 2020 total.

Trump isn't seeing near the drop. He's down two-points.

Biden is bleeding out support to Kennedy and other third-party candidates.

The hope is that they come back around the closer we get to the election but it's just insanity to believe there is no way Biden can lose this race. He's far too unpopular for anyone to say that.

[brush]

123. Koch's Americans for Prosperity just issued that trump is a loser in Nov.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218615480

[kelly1mm]

130. Hmmmm, are you in the habit of believing Koch brothers propaganda? When Koch

next says 'Biden sucks!' will you be posting that? If not why not? Isn't the Koch brothers network to be believed for what they put out now ...... I mean you are asserting that we believe this link, correct?

[brush]

131. I campaigned against Americans for Properity for Obama and for Hillary at DMV and Social Security offices...

where voters have to show up. My wife and I registered voters, competing against them. Did phone banking by Zoom for Biden in 2020. I know they've always been the enemy against Democratic candidates and now against Biden. If they're now against funding trump and calling him a loser, I consider it a good sign for Biden in November.

But you keep on with what you believe, maybe try working to GOTV for Biden instead of snarky keyboard warrioring.

[Demsrule86]

139. What gave us Trump was an anti-Democratic party faction who worked to undermine Clinton.

Stein the Russia troll princess had help from Russia. Trump was unknown politically and barely won. He has won nothing since then. Trump won't win a General. As others including pundits have pointed out, Trump's support even among Republicans is soft. And of course the video of him bragging how he destroyed Roe will help destroy him. Roe Roe your vote.

[MyNameIsJonas]

169. This is just hubris.

Plenty of evidence for anyone paying attention that Biden has lost a lot of support from 2020, especially over Israel.

They're not going to vote Trump but they have made it clear they won't vote Biden, either.

Biden loses if he can't shore up those voters. I don't think you guys grasp just how unpopular Biden is right now.

As much as you want to pretend it's a two-person race between Biden and Trump, lots of voters, especially young voters, don't see it that way.

Biden has to figure out a way to win them back.

[Demsrule86]

141. What problem? A bullshit poll with shitty internals is not a problem. It is created

to undermine President Biden. Positivity and support of our ticket is important. So I mostly hide such posts.

[MyNameIsJonas]

144. There's more than just one bullshit poll.

You're free to bury your head in the sand and pretend everything is okay. I've worked too many campaigns to know when there are major warning signs about support. And ignoring the problem isn't going to magically make it go away.

Fortunately, there is time to get things turned around - but it requires being honest about the situation.

I didn't work with the Biden campaign four years ago (I was focused on a local race) but I knew someone who was pretty high up in the campaign. There were some key moments where the campaign had to pivot.

In late summer of 2020, the campaign realized, due to COVID, they were at a massive disadvantage with their GOTV and voter registration efforts in swing states like Pennsylvania and Florida. The DNC, along with the Biden campaign, decided to forgo in-person, door-to-door voter registration and GOTV efforts. It was the responsible thing to do but politically it hurt them because the Republicans and Trump campaign were actually going door-to-door. It allowed them to register new voters and Republicans in Pennsylvania actually registered more new voters than Democrats.

In October, sensing things narrowing with their internal polling, the party finally allowed door-to-door registration and GOTV campaigning. With how close the race ended up in PA, as well as other swing states, it might have actually saved his butt.

Around this time, at least in September, it also became clear that Trump was benefiting from resuming holding rallies. Those rallies again were used as GOTV efforts but also a way to register new voters. Biden hadn't held any rallies since winning the nomination but the campaign realized they were still needed to beat back the image he was living in his basement and to also aggressively motivate the base.

So the campaign pivoted and started holding in-person rallies (though with drive-in rallies where people attended in their cars).

My point? The campaign saw warning signs and adjusted. They needed to. They realized they were at risk of losing their lead. And with how close these states were, that adjustment likely saved his campaign.

But it takes accepting the reality to do something like that - not rejecting it because it's not positive enough for you.

[Demsrule86]

153. And they are all done the same way with bullshit aggregates...they don't even keep it

even by using the same parameters...nope whatever confirms their bias. And they are biased and don't have enough participants...Real Clear is one of the worst. They are now GOP pollsters...living on money from the GOP and clicks on their worthless polls by GOP types.

[MyNameIsJonas]

168. lol

What are you even rambling about? Now every pollster is a GOP pollster? That's wild.

[spooky3]

86. Why do you presume that those leaning third party

Are only 2020 Biden voters and not Trump voters?

[MyNameIsJonas]

88. Because that's what the polls are showing.

Look at the latest Marist poll for New Hampshire:

Biden vs Trump and Biden leads Trump 52-45.

When Kennedy is added to the mix, Biden leads Trump but it drops to 44-41-12.

So, Biden's seven-point lead is down to three. Biden also loses eight=percent of his voters to Kennedy, while Trump only loses half that.

Biden won New Hampshire by seven in 2020.

[spooky3]

91. But (a) experts agree that polls this far ahead of the election

aren’t good at predicting election results; (b) this poll shows that Trump also loses support to a third party, so the picture is more muddled than implied by your earlier post; (c) New Hampshire is not necessarily representative of other states and is not a swing state, important in the electoral college.

[MyNameIsJonas]

117. Polls CAN be a decent predictive measure for how the electorate is feeling at the moment.

Yes, that can change - but at the moment, it's clear voters are not satisfied with either Biden or Trump. It's not muddled. Muddled would be Biden keeping his seven-point lead - not losing a total of four-points from that lead when a third party candidate is thrown into the mix.

Trump is not losing near the support at this moment according to polls. That isn't to say things can't change but it does mean things have to change or Biden could be looking at an election defeat in November.

So, while polls this far out aren't necessarily predictive, they do give you an idea of what to expect.

Case in point: Marist's January, 2020 poll that had Biden beating Trump by eight in New Hampshire:

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_NH-NOS-and-Tables_2001241124.pdf

The only change between January and November was a one-point decrease off Biden's lead. That's it.

If Biden wins New Hampshire by seven again, he's probably going to be all right.

But if he only wins by two or three in November, it means he's lost support and it's unlikely that will be contained just to one state. Typically it bleeds over to other states and that includes states Biden barely won, like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona.

[spooky3]

118. You are cherry picking data or offering opinions without data, which is

fine, but not convincing (to me, anyway). I’m going to wait and see. Meanwhile, events that Biden can’t control are likely to play an important role, eg, what Netanyahu does, whether inflation subsides further.

[MyNameIsJonas]

122. I am not cherry picking any data. You asked a question, I gave an answer.

I picked New Hampshire because it was the most recent poll that came out that included Kennedy.

A national poll from Harvard-Harris also shows Kennedy hurting Biden.

In a head-to-head between just Biden and Trump, Biden loses by six. When Kennedy's thrown in, he loses by eight.

Neither are good - but eight is crushing.

Reuters/Ipsos shows less of a drop for Biden. But he goes from being tied with Trump in a two-person race to losing to him by one when Kennedy is added.

[bigtree]

37. Biden won Michigan by three points

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/michigan/

[Fiendish Thingy]

70. Why do you think they will?

Post-two impeachments, post 91 indictments, and especially, Post-Dobbs…the political climate in 2024 is far different than 2016.

I’m not overconfident, but neither am I worried.

[Freethinker65]

11. So after women and families voted to protect rights at State level

Those same voters will vote for Trump to take those rights away at the Federal level AND punish the state for ever electing that woman from Michigan.

[LiberalFighter]

12. Elissa Slotkin should focus on her campaign. Not blame Biden.

[edisdead]

58. THIS is the ONLY takeaway that DU should be pointing out!

[brooklynite]

73. She is focusing on her own campaign..;.

...which includes evaluating the overall electoral bent of the State and the potential for coattails, or a lack thereof.

[Cha]

120. They'll see how fucked up it can Get if the Traitor

gets in Again and we Lose our Democracy.

[edhopper]

19. Haven't Democrats won

The last 3 elections in Mich.?

[TexasDem69]

29. They've won one of the last two presidential elections

[edhopper]

31. Yes

But didn't they become stronger 2016.

[TexasDem69]

32. I'm not sure

I think the fact that we had 4 years of Trump’s terrible policies and idiocy from 2016-2020 really helped Biden, and now that Trump hasn’t had a platform for implementing his awfulness there might be complacency. I don’t think Trump is any more popular, just that the folks who don’t follow politics and didn’t vote in 2016, but made a difference in 2020, might not vote in 2024

[edhopper]

36. That is a problem

in many States

[Aepps22]

41. I agree

Complacency will get us but I’m glad for news like this because it encourages me that I still need to do my part to GOTV, donate and push against nonsense online. I don’t think Trump loses voters but his base only wins if we stay home so being alert and keeping our eyes on the prize will be critical

[brush]

38. Exactly. The last one by 7 million+ votes. And women are still pissed at trump bragging about snatching away abortion...

right. But keep right on pitching for trump on a Democratic site.

[TexasDem69]

98. Nobody is pitching for Trump on this site

I’m just not burying my head in the sand like you are. This is the second time in this thread you have accused a DU member of “pitching” for Trump. You need to stop that bullshit—it’s untrue and unbecoming.

[Seeking Serenity]

111. Not legitimately, they haven't

The last time they can legitimately claim to have won the presidential election was in 1956. Period. End of it.

‐----30-----

[kelly1mm]

128. How was the 2016 election not legitimate? Did President Trump not win the Electoral College

vote? How was the 2004 election not legitimate? Did President Bush not win the Electoral College vote?

Going back to 1984, did President Reagan not with the Electoral College vote (not to mention every state other than MN and DC?

[Seeking Serenity]

132. 2016 doesn't even deserve a response

Everyone here knows that was a foreign/Comey-influenced stitch up.

As for 1984, King Ronnie of Dementia did not legitimately win in 1980 (because of his campaign's having talks with Iran re: our hostages behind the backs and against the interests and efforts of the lawful US government). As such, he shouldn't have had the institutional privilege of incumbency as that was fruit of the poisonous tree of 1980.

Same thing with 2004. In 2000, Dim-Son would not have won Florida but for the SC fiddle. Thus his "re-election" in 2004 was also fruit of the poisonous 2000 tree, and thus illegitimate. (Same principle applies to Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972.)

They have not legitimately won a presidential election since 1956. And I suppose one could make an argument that even that election wasn't legitimate as the Eisenhower/Nixon victory in 1952 may not have been legitimate because of Dick(head)'s lies regarding his receiving illegal gifts and so forth, leading to his infamous "Checkers" speech.

[kelly1mm]

176. You have a VERY interesting definition of legitimate. We will have to agree to disagree. nt

[LeftInTX]

64. There are tons of middle easterners and Muslims in Michigan

[applegrove]

74. Exactly.

[applegrove]

75. Exactly.

[enid602]

21. for Joe

Ceasefire now!! For Joe!!!

[TexasDem69]

30. Joe doesn't support a ceasefire

Nor do Democrats. Nor does any reasonable person who supports justice.

[enid602]

40. Biden

Dems (according to polls) have supported a ceasefire for 2 months now. Biden is trying to support an ally, but his actions indicate he’d prefer a ceasefire.

[TexasDem69]

99. Which actions are those? Has he called for a ceasefire?

[enid602]

100. Pressure

Letting it leak to the press periodically that he’s pushing for humanitarian ceasefires, more humane treatment and food aid.

[kelly1mm]

129. and that has gotten exactly what? How many Palestinians have died during that time? Look

I am in support of Israel continuing the offensive until Hamas is rendered ineffectual as a fighting/governmental force so I am fine with the President's wishy/washyness but come on, at least be honest .....

[DemocraticPatriot]

180. So who made you spokesperson for all "Democrats" and 'reasonable' people??

I didn't hear about that election..... and I'm a reasonable Democrat who would support a ceasefire at this point.

[pecosbob]

25. OMG...Dems in disarray.

Stay tuned for the next article warning of calamity...something or other about DSA or No Labels.

[Ferrets are Cool]

42. Bullshit

Fuck these negative articles.

[spanone]

47. ...and I'm sure there's a red wave coming too.

The wingnut media is pining for another trmp mal-administration.

trmp will then investigate any media that doesn't kiss his ass.

[MyNameIsJonas]

51. The polls never pointed to a red wave.

The people who talked about a red wave are doing exactly what you're doing right now: they didn't believe the polls because they couldn't fathom that with the state of the country at the time that Democrats wouldn't get soundly beat.

Polls show Biden doing very poorly in Michigan. Anyone who ignores the red flag is only setting themselves up for a big surprise.

[edisdead]

53. Question...

Why are all three paragraphs wrapped in quotation marks with no attribution to a person being quoted?

[vercetti2021]

60. Well guess we should all just quit

A lot of younger dumbasses are willing to let Trump win because their conscious just can't bring themselves to vote for Biden. Despite Trunp will deport muslims in mass and usher in a dictatorship. But fuck if they didn't get their way once again!

[BootOutTheGoons]

65. Then campaign harder and get louder

State with a popular Democratic governor has a Biden problem? Really?

Meanwhile the WSJ is owned by MFing Murdoch. Since when are we trusting MFing Murdoch anything?

[edisdead]

67. This.

[vercetti2021]

79. DU addicted to panic

If people are shitting themselves of a WSJ rag...lord help us lol also I doubt Michigan is gonna vote more to the right than Texas..

[BootOutTheGoons]

95. Right you are

I can't see Michigan electing Whitmer and other progressives at the state level, then tripping all over themselves for IQ45

The WSJ and New York Post are MFer Murdoch rags. No idea why they're taken seriously when Faux Noise is blown off

We know Biden will campaign plenty in Michigan and other midwest states. This isn't over yet and right now it feels like panic

[MichMan]

159. Michigan is closely divided

Dems are tied in the Michigan House and hold the Senate by only two seats. It isn't as solidly blue as people think

[Autumn]

68. yes he does. Muslim Americans in Michigan will not vote for Biden because of Israel's was on Gaza.

In light of the conflict in Gaza, a grassroots movement said it's mobilizing Muslim voters against voting to re-elect President Joe Biden.

Dozens of protestors held a news conference outside the FBI building in downtown Detroit to call on other Muslims and allies to abandon the democratic party.

"Gaza is a graveyard for children, and Biden continues to reject a ceasefire," said Huwaida Arraf, a Palestinian Christian who lives in Metro Detroit.

Arraf said Biden should've done more to force a ceasefire, and because of that, innocent civilians continue to be killed in Gaza.

"W"This is a genocide, and Biden is responsible," said Imam Imran Salha with the Islamic Center of Detroit.

Salha and others in attendance are calling on Muslims nationwide to abandon their support for Biden.

"This is an effort in Michigan, in Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota, California, every single state that is a swing state, we will make sure you lose," Salha said.

Salha said Biden's unwavering support to the state of Israel and his unwillingness to call for a ceasefire, has led to innocent civilians being killed, and for that reason, he is urging Muslims not to support the democratic party. hen Biden loses the 2024 election, it is his making and the making of the Democratic party," Arraf said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/michigan-muslim-leaders-urge-not-to-vote-for-biden/

[vercetti2021]

72. These people are fucking stupid

Trunp literally said he will deport them...but hey optics. Also didn't a few of these organizations essentially say that support Hamas?

[Quixote1818]

76. Guess they forgot about Trump's Muslim ban? nt

[Elessar Zappa]

78. Idiots.

Anyone who does not support Biden is supporting Trump.

[EllieBC]

89. That would make sense.

Of course they’d stay home before they vote for him.

They support anti LGBTQ policies: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/06/15/us/hamtramck-michigan-ban-pride-flags-public-property/index.html

[Autumn]

96. Yes, but they did turn out for Biden in 2020

Michigan's large Arab American and Muslim American populations turned out big for Biden in 2020, helping him clinch the battleground and solidify his win over Donald Trump for the presidency. AP reported that 64% of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in 2020, while 35% supported Trump. And in heavily Arab American counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little less than 70%.

Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa. Michigan's Arab American population includes Muslims and Christians, along with recent immigrants and families whose ancestors arrived in the late 1800s alike.

But the Israel-Hamas war is throwing the support of Michigan's large Arab American population into doubt for Democrats.
Because they feel the White House is disproportionately supporting Israel at the cost of the lives of Palestinians, leaders in Muslim American communities have been encouraging others to not put Biden down on their ballot in 2024.

Lajevardi said that sentiment has rung true for Muslims across the country. She says that in her online surveys of Muslim leaders and mosques, she's seen skyrocketing disapproval of Biden since the start of the war — and at a rate higher than that of Trump, who famously called for "a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States," during his first campaign for president in 2015.
It is precisely because of that disapproval that crosses party lines that Lajevardi says a growing number of people feel it is not worth voting for either political party, Democratic or Republican.

https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians

[EllieBC]

105. Great people. Just hate the LGBTQ

community. No biggie though, right?

[vercetti2021]

116. Of course not

We are extendable to the masses. Fuck our rights amirite?

[Autumn]

148. Yeah, like Christian hate the LGBTQ. No biggie there. amirite?

[EllieBC]

186. No that actually is important.

You won’t catch me saying it’s not.

Good try though!

Also 2 city commissioners were fired for defying the pride flag ban. That would have easily set off 100 threads here had it been done by the usual suspects who are Christians. But the outrage just wasn’t as strong.

[MistakenLamb]

161. those non Biden Muslims are also anti Democratic Party

due to our support for the LGBTQ community. They desire the utter destruction of Israel, no Democrat should be seeking their vote

[Botany]

81. Oh please President Joe has been great for Michigan.

Michigan will be as blue as her waters. Biden’s bad “poll #s” are a product of GOP, Russia,
dirty media, and billionaires disinformation. Btw by any metric Joe B. Is doing a great job.
He has put > 1 billion $s into the Great Lakes which is worth trillions to the Wolf Oh Rinny
state.

[LeftRightLeft]

93. Guys, what's happening is there's a large pro-Democrat constituency of Arabs in Michigan

They are non to pleased w/Biden's no-holes-barred support of Israel's actions.

This has been reported for almost 2 months now.

The polls are not invalid, nor are they rightwing talking points.

Do not brush them away.

[bigtree]

94. so, guys, 'Arabs' in Michigan should be more worried about Trump's promise

...to reinstate his Muslim ban that Pres. Biden overturned.

But go on and tell us how Michigan Democrats will 'pleased' to vote for Trump over Biden.

Trump vows to expand Muslim ban and bar Gaza refugees if he wins presidency

Doubling down on the hardline immigration policies that have long animated his base, Donald Trump on Monday vowed to bar refugees from Gaza and immediately expand his first-term Muslim travel ban if he wins a second term following the deadly attack on Israel last week.

Speaking to supporters in Iowa, the former president said that if he returns to the Oval Office, he will immediately begin “ideological screening” for all immigrants and bar those who sympathize with Hamas and Muslim extremists. The war between Israel and Hamas has sparked what is now the deadliest of five Gaza wars for both sides, with more than 4,000 dead.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/17/trump-muslim-ban-gaza-refugees

January 18, 2024
Remarks by President Biden Before Marine One Departure

REPORTER: Are you concerned with the Arab American votes voting for you during this election because of Gaza? Many say they will not vote for you.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, look, the former President wants to put a ban on Arabs coming into the country.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/18/remarks-by-president-biden-before-marine-one-departure-42/

[Autumn]

101. They are citizens, Trumps Muslim ban will not impact them.

[bigtree]

104. that's really myopic, after all, the suggestion is these Americans are so jazzed about Gaza

...that they'd let Trump back in???

Ffs, they're supposed to be rejecting Biden for Gaza when Trump is taking such a hostile stance against even refugees?

All the while this president is bending over backward to provide for them.

It couldn't be more clear that all of this noise about 'Arabs' not voting for Biden is completely ignoring the absolute danger to actual Arabs of refusing to vote for Biden and allowing a Trump presidency.

That propaganda is so absurd that it insults everyone engaging in this falderal.

[Autumn]

163. I've seen interviews with those people. What is absurd is thinking that them not voting or voting 3rd party

won't matter. Who are you going to blame then?

[bigtree]

167. who handpicked those people for those interviews?

...and what would be the result if those same networks bothered to show ANYONE who supports this president and his policies, given that 81 million of us voted for him?

THAT goes the point of this fellow Taggard projecting an anti-Biden blurb from a republican newspaper's anti-Biden opinion piece, and some DUers taking that cue as an opportunity to further denigrate the Biden administration.

It's not some mere happenstance that some here feel compelled to debate negatives about our eventual Democratic nominee, because that's the intention of both the republican newspaper, Taggard, and as expressed on this thread, the op.

I think all of that is a curiously navel-gazing pursuit on a Democratic message board in the middle of trying to reelect our Democratic president, but others mileage may vary.

[Autumn]

170. You'll have your answer after the election.

Can't wait to see who will get the blame this time if they sit it out or vote 3rd party.

[bigtree]

171. no, Autumn

...the people interviewed that these networks pick for their viewers to anguish and whinge about are deliberately chosen to elicit this attempt to divide 'Arabs' (as the poster I was responding to referred to the diverse community of different nationalities) from the Democratic party or just stir up shit.

I'm going to guess that most people aren't as myopic as these clickbait reports suggest, and can easily make the judgment that refusing to vote, or voting for Trump would be a calamity to their lives and to the concerns expressed in these network news interviews.

Anyone spending time spreading anxiety or concern about this canard needs to be checked hard. They are engaging in dangerous and misinforming sophistry.

[Autumn]

174. That's a piss poor argument. Those people are protesting people being murdered. You ought to try listening to

them. Biden is the best president of my lifetime but he's wrong on this.

[bigtree]

177. first of all, Biden isn't murdering anyone, so enough with the hyperbole

...Biden doesn't control the Knesset.

Biden doesn't control Netanyahu, but the Israeli leader is bosom buddies with Trump. Wtf do these critics think Trump is going to do? Jesus, the stupid is stunning here.

Here's our president last week:

"Israel's security can rest on the United States, but right now it has more than the United States. It has the European Union, it has Europe, it has most of the world ... But they're starting to lose that support by indiscriminate bombing that takes place," Biden said.

Biden alluded to a private conversation in which the Israeli leader said: "'You carpet bombed Germany, you dropped the atom bomb, a lot of civilians died.'"

Biden said he responded: "Yeah, that's why all these institutions were set up after World War Two to see to it that it didn't happen again ... don't make the same mistakes we made in 9/11. There's no reason why we had to be in a war in Afghanistan."

Biden said Netanyahu must "change," adding that "this government in Israel is making it very difficult." He also said that ultimately Israel "can't say no" to a Palestinian state, which Israeli hardliners oppose.

Biden said: "We have an opportunity to begin to unite the region ... and they still want to do it. But we have to make sure that Bibi (Netanyahu) understands that he's got to make some moves ... You cannot say no Palestinian state."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-israel-starting-lose-support-over-indiscriminate-bombing-gaza-2023-12-12/

..if all you're doing is highlighting some either/or choice in this, you're not dealing with the reality that this is not an American war, and Pres. Biden is guided by his very correct principles, and his obligation to our own national security.

I do understand though, the importance for those who want to make this just an American election issue to divide people from the party to be as myopic as possible in their advocacy.

It's not actually about doing the right thing. It's just not. It's a cynical political ploy to blame Biden for what Israel is doing. Let's hope these demagogues don't succeed.

[Autumn]

164. Yeah, you go tell them that.

[bigtree]

165. why not?

...the president has.


January 18, 2024
Remarks by President Biden Before Marine One Departure

Q How concerned are you with the Arab American votes during this election? And what Iowa means to you, to your reelection race?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I don’t think Iowa means anything. The President got 50-some-thousand votes — the lowest number of votes anybody who’s won got. You know, this idea that it’s been a runaway, I think he can characterize it any way he wants. I’ll let them make that judgment.

What was the second part of the question?

Q The part was: Are you concerned with the Arab American votes voting for you during this election because of Gaza? Many say they will not vote for you.

THE PRESIDENT: Well, look, the President wants to put a — the former President wants to put a ban on Arabs coming into the country. We’ll make sure he — we understand who cares about the Arab population, number one.

Number two, we got a long way to go in terms of settling the situation in Gaza.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/18/remarks-by-president-biden-before-marine-one-departure-42/

[Autumn]

166. Again, they won't care if Trump puts in a Muslim ban. They are US citizens.

A. Muslim. Ban. Won't. Impact. Them.

[bigtree]

172. again, then, it's sophistry that they care at all about Gaza.

...try to keep up.

Trump's. Gaza. Ban. On. Refugees. Will. Impact. Their. Supposed. Concern. About. Biden.

That makes them full of shit if they sit out or vote for Trump. In what alternate universe would allowing Trump to win advantage ANY of their concerns about Biden?

[Autumn]

175. Well one thing for sure, you would know sophistry. I have no desire to keep up with you. Have a nice day.

[bigtree]

179. I know blaming Biden for Israel in Gaza is sophistry

...and anyone deciding to sit on their hands in this election and enable Trump into office shouldn't be taken seriously about concern for Gaza, or anything else for that matter.

[MistakenLamb]

181. they want another ME war against Israel that's their goal

[NickB79]

112. Dictators can do whatever they want when they gain power

Dictator Trump won't give a damn about "citizenship", or any other "laws" or "rights" his subjects may try to claim they have.

[shrike3]

155. Trump will amp up the anti-Muslim rhetoric, which will impact them.

There's still the notion in the back of people's minds that sharia law will spring up everywhere.

That said, you're right that a Muslim ban would not concern them. They're like a lot of other people. If it doesn't impact them personally, they don't care.

[LeftInTX]

184. I haven't researched Trump's Gaza plan, but I'm sure it calls for utter-destruction of Gaza.

If Muslims are basing their decisions on Israel/Gaza, Trump would be much worse.

Registered Muslims have extremely high voter turnout - at 71%.

However, we must also keep in mind that many complainers may not be registered voters or even US citizens (They may be here on work/student VISAs)


It's gonna take alot of work in the fall to reach out to those voters. However, with a turnout rate of 71%, something tells me they aren't holed up in apartments living paycheck to paycheck.

I'm also worried about black voters. Many of them are very strong supporters of Palestine, maybe more so than Muslim voters. They are more likely to sit out an election or vote third party.

[TexasDem69]

102. Any American interested in justice

Should fully support Israel’s attempts to eradicate Hamas. If you don’t and want to vote for Trump then you aren’t an American.

[LeftRightLeft]

103. Good luck w/THAT rhetoric.

[pwb]

106. Doubt it.

Pukes think we forget.

[Seeking Serenity]

108. Remember, people

There is no reading or posting of any articles that contain negative information about Biden or Democrats more broadly.

Don't read any of them. No one wants to see them.

[shrike3]

109. Isn't this the same state where the GOP is broke and trying to sell a building it doesn't even own?

And now has dueling party directors because the one members removed won't leave?

I'm not disputing the OP. But what a weird world we live.

[Xoan]

110. Gotta be a fool to believe this bullshit!

[peggysue2]

113. From what I've been reading, the Republicans have a Michigan problem with the State Party in absolute tatters

Republicans fighting Republicans, two different people claiming to be the head of the state party itself, all sorts of finger-pointing and accusations of betrayal, grifting and yada, yada. Plus a financial implosion. That means any sort of organization preparing for the 2024 election is pretty much nil at this point.

So, Biden may have problems but it's not as if the GOP is in great shape.

[shrike3]

145. Made that same point upthread.

According to Rachel, the GOP is so broke, it tried to sell a building it doesn't own to raise money.

Whatever Biden's problems, the opposition is not in great shape.

[peggysue2]

146. Sorry for the repeat then, shrike

But exactly right--the GOP Michigan State party is from all accounts involved in a serious civil war at the moment. No organization, no money, no direction.

[shrike3]

149. That's all right. I don't know that that many people read my post.

But the Michigan GOP is a mess. If the Biden goes to war to win voters there, I can't see them mounting much of a challenge. Weird situation.

[LeftInTX]

188. The RNC will step in...Trust me!

[Tribetime]

136. Too many people ignore warning signs

I hope there is a plan b because if we run and lose to this clown. There's no excuse we get what we deserve

[dwayneb]

138. We are at war - never underestimate your enemy

We need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of our enemy with unbiased and clear vision.

Winning the 2024 election will require us to take action and to have a battle plan. Pretending that Trump does not have a lead in a key state like Michigan is a recipe for disaster. We need to make a battle plan on the intelligence we have in our hands.

[shrike3]

150. Fortunately, the Michigan GOP is cooperating.

It's an absolute mess. At least we'll have that in our favor.

[Demsrule86]

142. What warning signs? Winning elections? Roe Roe your vote.

[dwayneb]

137. Real Clear Politics average of polls is the best resource

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-biden

Average of 18 polls has Trump ahead by 6 points. Averaging tends to give a more realistic assessment.

This is not good. No doubt Biden's campaign management is watching this one very closely.

[Demsrule86]

143. Real Clear politics takes money from the GOP and is slanted in their polling.

"...The top brass over at RCP is not exactly nonpartisan. The goal of their broader website seems pretty explicitly to be to push Republican news out to Republicans. I suppose that has knock-on effects for how they analyze polls. They really aren’t impartial, for example, when it comes to writing about the performance of different firms.

So it’s possible they see Republican overperformance in polls from 2016 and 2020 as a harbinger of bias in 2022 because that’s what the color of their partisan glasses dictates. Plus, there is a big information ecosystem effect on the right: RCP can get a truckload more clicks from conservatives looking for GOP-friendly numbers if they create rosy averages that get cited by other prominent right-leaning media figures.

This should make us automatically skeptical of RCP’s “adjusted” aggregates of polls. Not only does the method they are using to predict bias in the polls this year have no track record at all (in that they have never done this before —though one website, UnskewedPolls.com, did a terrible job doing something similar in 2012), but worse, even if you backtest the strategy artificially it still completely falls apart. Based on my cursory analysis presented here, it is likely that RCP is adding both bias and noise to their readers’ interpretations of polls. Speaking from the perspective of the historical performance of this strategy, that is true to the point where readers might be better off guessing the opposite of whatever RCP’s data analysts are cooking up...

They are asserting that view to their readers as if it is the ground truth, a precise estimate of bias in polls that must be adjusted for in order to produce a reliable picture of public opinion. History suggests that such an endeavor is unlikely to produce accurate results."⚠️

https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans

[Demsrule86]

147. They are shit polls using questionable aggregates.

for the right wing and get plenty of rightwing clicks.

'The error RealClearPolitics is making (intentionally, I think—and I’ll explain why) is in asserting that they can predict bias in the average of polls ahead of an election. They assert, statistically speaking, that they can do this by looking at the average error in their average of polls in each state over the past three election cycles.

But you do not have to go back very far to see that this is not true. If you had tried to predict the bias in Senate polls in 2014 by averaging the bias in the polls in 2008, 2012 and 2014, for example, you would have predicted that polls were underestimating Democratic candidates’ margins of victory nationally by 1.3 percentage points. Yet in reality, the polls that year ended up overestimating the Democrats by 3 points:'

https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-polling-website-where-republicans

[Joinfortmill]

151. Ok, but it's the WSJ, so there's that.

[flying_wahini]

154. The GOP coffers are broke in Michigan. As is Arizona.

Throw them some money.

[Mad_Machine76]

158. All of these stories are frustrating because they don't attempt to answer the one question that should be getting asked:

What does Joe Biden/DNC need to do in order to win (aside from change his age, which, of course, he can't do and is mostly irrelevant anyway with Trump not being much younger)?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

173. Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Urinal

[Nixie]

185. Wasn't Jared supposed to broker peace in the Middle East?

He got his office in the White House and they forced a security clearance through that he didn't qualify for due to excessive debt and financial problems.

Biden and democrats should be focusing on that instead of lame attacks.

[betsuni]

187. Why is anything Biden's fault?