NY Siena poll: Biden still up big in NY

[Polybius]

Biden 46, Trump 37

Biden 41, Trump 32, Kennedy 13, West 3

Virtually unchanged from a November poll where Biden was up by 10. When adding in 3rd Party candidates, the poll spread stayed the same.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/new-york/trump-vs-biden

[Prairie Gates]

1. New day, same old song

[MyNameIsJonas]

2. One thing that stands out is that Biden has not solidified his support there.

Trump's numbers are virtually unchanged from his 2020 totals. But Biden won New York with 60% of the vote in 2020 so to be at 46% shows there's work to do.

[Polybius]

3. There are way too many undecideds

I assume that they will either go to Biden or stay home. I doubt many go to Trump.

[MyNameIsJonas]

4. Right. But if they stay home, or vote third party, it can hand the election to Trump.

[H2O Man]

5. Not in NYS.

Zero chance of that.

[MyNameIsJonas]

6. This is a nationwide problem for Biden.

It doesn't matter if he's not at risk of losing New York. That's irrelevant. The issues he's seeing in this poll are pretty universal: Biden is underperforming his 2020 totals across the board. And it's the same reason in every poll - he's losing support to undecided or third party candidate.

Hopefully they come back by November but right now, it's impacting his numbers everywhere.

[H2O Man]

7. The poll in

the OP was about NYS. Hence, your first response started with " One thing that stands out is that Biden has not solidified his support there.," followed by two sentences that focused specifically on NYS. And now you say that New York is "irrelevant."

[MyNameIsJonas]

11. The point is clear. I am sorry you can't understand it.

Biden's problem in New York is not unique to just New York. That's generally how elections work. Rarely is a presidential candidate's problems isolated to just one state. What Biden is seeing in New York is bleeding into other states as well. Whether he's at risk of losing New York is irrelevant. That isn't the point. The point is that he's seen a significant decrease in support in New York.

Biden won New York by 23 points.

That means he's doing 15 points worse currently than he did there in 2020.

It's irrelevant to whether he'll win the state - he will - but the main issue isn't irrelevant.

If Biden "only" wins New York by eight/nine points, it'll be the narrowest the state has been won by a Democratic candidate for president since Dukakis won it by four points in 1988.

The fact Biden won 60% of the vote in 2020 and now is at 41% in a multi-person race does not bode well for him nationally. It only reinforces the truths: Biden is underperforming his totals nearly across the board, especially in multi-person polls.

Another example is New Hampshire. Biden won this state by seven points n 2020 and yet the latest Marist poll has him winning it by only three when Kennedy is included.

I promise you if Biden is losing that much support in New York and New Hampshire, it's going to bleed over into other, more important states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin.

And he didn't win those states by a significant margin in 2020 - so, any loss of support could absolutely lose him those states.

[Johonny]

8. There is one n in Siena College

[Polybius]

9. Thanks

Fixed.

[LiberalFighter]

10. Kennedy getting 13? Hogwash!