Prediction: Dean Phillips wins the NH Democratic Primary...

[brooklynite]

No consequential number of Biden write-in votes.

[Voltaire2]

1. I doubt that.

[brooklynite]

4. Because.....?

[Voltaire2]

20. Because we aren't stupid voters.

NH dems aren’t idiots.

[JohnSJ]

108. You called it Voltaire. Wonder if the OP will self-delete?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

2. And then he tries to pretend it's a mandate... NT

[Cha]

57. lol... DP got his "mandate" alright...

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

88. Right! Hi Cha. How are you?

[Cha]

110. Really Happy that

President Biden Won write ✍️ in NH!

I hope you’re doing well now.

[Demsrule86]

135. I went back into AFIB two weeks ago...had cardiaversion twice since then...so I need an ablation

write now on ramped-up heart meds and just waiting for the process to play out. I feel fine though.

[Demsrule86]

134. Oops...this thread did not age well.

[Lovie777]

3. 21 on the Democratic ballot...................................

[tritsofme]

5. Even if Biden wins as a write-in, keeping him off the ballot was incredibly stupid.

These sorts of awkward headlines were inevitable, and completely unnecessary.

[brooklynite]

7. A point I raised with DNC Chair Jaime Harrison...

....is that you can't say you're skipping the NH Primary and NOT concurrently announce when and how NH Democrats will have an alternative opportunity to vote.

[oldsoftie]

36. Exactly nt

[W_HAMILTON]

40. Was this Jaime's response?

I wonder if he -- like me -- honestly didn't know what the heck you were talking about.

From your suggestion, it sounds like you have a complete misunderstanding of what happened here.

[brooklynite]

43. What did I misunderstand?

Do you know when New Hampshire Democrats will get to select delegates for the Democratic convention? And how they'll express their opinion?

[W_HAMILTON]

46. They refused the alternative date that was offered to them because they didn't want to take a backseat to South Carolina

When they did that, they forfeited the right to have a say delegate-wise. They were *literally* offered an alternative date where they could have voted and had their delegates treated as any other state. They refused. Now, it matters little. The DNC may agree to some sort of deal where they still seat them but they only count as 1/2 a vote like they did with Michigan in 2008, but that matters little and it occurs only after-the-fact. Negotiating with them for such an agreement before they cast their vote basically rewards them for their behavior and defeats the purpose of sanctioning them for doing what they did.

So, I reiterate, Jaime probably had no clue what you were talking about.

[brooklynite]

47. So your view is "screw the Democratic voters if the Republican Government refuses to change the date"?

That's a great way to encourage Biden votes in November in a State he needs to win.

As for Jaime Harrison, yes he understood me, and his answer was "The State Party will decide". So far, I'm not aware that they have.

[W_HAMILTON]

48. No, my view -- which is also fact -- is that they can run a separate nominating process on their own...

...and not be beholden by "Republican government" decisions.

Do you think Jaime Harrison and the DNC aren't well aware of how this process works? You think you are instructing them? You think you know better?

And based on your original post, I would kindly suggest you stop predicting the behavior of New Hampshire Democrats.

[brooklynite]

50. My point is that the DNC and the State Party HAVEN'T announced what that alternative process is.

[W_HAMILTON]

56. Once again, why would they? The state party refused to change their date -- period.

What is the point in offering an alternative when any alternative you offer hinges on them being willing to move their date to begin with -- something they were unwilling to do in the first place?

[brooklynite]

60. So you're saying NH Democrats won';t have an opportunity to pick delegates?

Screw em?

Iowa has announced an alternative date and voting process. New Hampshire has not.

[W_HAMILTON]

62. "Iowa has announced an alternative date and voting process."

Yeah, now you're starting to get it!

Iowa did what it was asked to do, which is why it hasn't been sanctioned.

New Hampshire did not, which is why it was sanctioned.

As for how/if New Hampshire gets to select delegates, that is a discussion for a later time, like it was for Michigan in 2008. Not for before the process, which they refused to change and instead pushed ahead with despite objections. Once again, why would you sanction them for their actions, only to announce you aren't really gonna follow through with it before they actually commit the violation you were sanctioning them for in the first place? That defeats the whole purpose of sanctioning them for their actions if you tell them ahead of time that they aren't really gonna be sanctioned.

[brooklynite]

65. No, Iowa didn't...

The Iowa Democratic Party announced an alternative date and process because the State doesn't hold a Primary. The NH Democratic Party knew this was coming, and knew (as the DNC) did that New Hampshire REPUBLICANS wouldn't change the date (required to be first by State Law) and didn't announce an alternative plan.

Apparently you think its okay for Republicans to interfere with the Democratic nominating process if they want to?

[Bettie]

69. State law requires a caucus

and, they passed a new law that we could not do it by mail, but as long as we held an in-person caucus, we could do presidential preference by mail and release on a later date.

NH and Iowa Democrats are both constrained by state laws and, at least in Iowa, we don't have the legislatures or the Governor's office, so we can't change the laws.

[brooklynite]

70. NH Democrats aren't constrained; they just need to develop a Caucus process.

[W_HAMILTON]

71. I was quoting your own words, brooklynite.

And once again, you don't have to be beholden to using a state-run primary system -- or in Iowa's case, a caucus system -- to select your nominee. The New Hampshire state party was free to literally do almost anything it wanted to select its nominee -- other than go ahead of South Carolina.

It went ahead of South Carolina.

And, thus, it was sanctioned for doing so.

This isn't really that complicated.

[brooklynite]

73. You're blaming the Democratic Party for the actions of the Republican State Government.

If you think that's a good way to turn out Democratic votes, I'd like to understand why.

[W_HAMILTON]

111. No, I'm blaming the state party for the actions of the state party.

You know, the same place where the national party has laid the blame, hence why they are being sanctioned for their actions.

The state party didn't need to have the "Republican State Government" sign off on their nomination process. They could have simply not used the traditional primary system to begin with and come up with their own alternative, as the Iowa state party did to get around similar obstruction from their "Republican State Government."

Once again, you predicted Dean Phillips to win the primary here. You are the last person that should be making predictions about voter turnout.

[LiberalFighter]

63. According to Green Papers...

NEW HAMPSHIRE will have 10 delegate votes at the Party's 2024 National Convention: MOTE: Due to its 23 January primary being noncompliant (in conflict with Democratic Party Rules 12.A and 21.C.1.), the New Hampshire Democratic Convention delegation has been dropped from its originally assigned 32 to only 10 delegate votes total. The breakdown of same is now: 7 district [originally 15], 2 at-large [down from 5], and only 1 pledged PLEO delegate [down from 3]; there will be 0 voting DNC Members [originally 5], 0 voting US Senators [originally 2], and 0 voting US House members [originally 2].

[edisdead]

82. The point is.... You were wrong.

You could just quit while you are a mile behind.

[Cha]

74. Rec.. TY for that Refresher Course!

[bigtree]

11. It's not hard to do, and most people there know how to write in a candidate

...and there has been a big push from almost every state Dem legislator and party official to promote it.

The actual process of voting for Biden in New Hampshire is fairly easy. The Democratic ballot will have 21 names on it, including the president’s leading challengers Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., and self-help author Marianne Williamson.

Below those names, there is an empty line that says “write-in.” Voters must fill in the oval on the line and legibly print Biden’s full name. The secretary of state’s office has said that as long as the “intent” of the name listed is clear, the vote will likely count for Biden.

Biden is widely expected to win the New Hampshire primary.

An overwhelming 64% of likely Democratic primary voters in a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University/Boston Globe survey said they planned to back the president on Jan. 23, compared to 6% who said they supported Phillips and 2% who supported Williamson.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/01/21/biden-write-in-new-hampshire-campaign/72299891007/

[MichMan]

12. If President Biden specifically didn't want to participate in NH primary, why go against his wishes by writing him in?

[Cha]

78. omg.. No Worries it's okay if Dems Write him in.. Okay?

Link to tweet

.

[W_HAMILTON]

121. Because they didn't want to have the dubious and shameful distinction...

...of having Dean freaking Phillips embarrassingly declared as their state's primary winner?

[Model35mech]

14. If feelings about a non-appearing candidate in NH are strong

might Biden get the same treatment as HRC did in WI?

[iemanja]

84. Chomping at the bit are you?

How disappointing for you.

[Demsrule86]

139. No...

[iemanja]

83. the point is to stop letting a few white people pick the nominee

It was not stupid, as the results show. NH can fuck themselves.

[brooklynite]

85. President Biden will be competitive in NH in November. President Biden will not be competitive in SC.

Discuss.

[iemanja]

104. African Americans are the base of the Democratic Party

and therefore SC far more closely resembles the party. Additionally, given your colossal flop in this thread, you're hardly in a position to be making prognostications.

[llmart]

113. K&R for...

"colossal flop".

[LetMyPeopleVote]

117. The DNC made a good decision in moving New Hampshire and Iowa from being the first

Neither state represents the demographics of the Democratic party.

[Demsrule86]

90. It was decided that South Carolina would go first...period.

[shrike3]

6. Well then, everyone's just got to get behind him.

One thing really annoying about this guy: if he actually had a chance, that'd be one thing. But nobody's heard of him. he has no mojo. No excitement. He held a campaign event, and nobody showed up. Maybe there's a better candidate than Biden out there, but it sure aint' him.

[tavernier]

16. And it double sure ain't trump.

He’s still running against Obama in some alternate universe.

[bigtree]

8. he's polling almost 50 points behind in EVERY poll other than ARG

...and he's aggravated NH voters so much that the write-in campaign has taken off.

A University of New Hampshire/CNN poll released Jan. 9 showed 69% of likely Democratic primary voters say they will write in Joe Biden's name, compared with 7% who plan to support Dean Phillips.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/politics/cnn-new-hampshire-poll/index.html

RCP Average 1/3-19 Biden (Write-In) +48.
Biden 58.7
Phillips 10.7
Williamson 5.3
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/nh/2024_new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary_2-8340.html

Jan 21: Phillips remains underwater by double-digit margins in NH.
https://www.newsweek.com/dean-phillips-chances-beating-joe-biden-new-hampshire-latest-polls-1862604



https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/30/biden-new-hampshire-democrats-write-in-campaign-00124217

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[LetMyPeopleVote]

119. Dean Philips is now complaining that President Biden is NOT taking his calls

Link to tweet

[Captain Zero]

140. Did Phillips call to concede?

He should.

This is as bad as losing to none filed.

In the rural Indiana county I grew up in, one year there was a Republican on the ballot for coroner and the Democratic slot had 'none filed'.

None Filed won. By like a thousand votes.

[LiberalFighter]

9. I doubt there will be any consequential number of Phillips votes.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. You forgot the quotation marks around "wins"

As was the case with the spoiled child at Willy Wonka’s factory, Phillips will win NOTHING, no delegates, maybe 24 hours of notoriety in the media, and then he will fade from view, never to be heard from again.

[bigtree]

15. but we'll have this moment in the loop where it's okay for some

...to come onto this Democratic message board and talk down our eventual Democratic nominee's chances in this election like he's some opposition figure.

Winning.

[Cha]

18. Excellent point. Rec TY

[hlthe2b]

13. I think you'd have to be on the ground to get a real sense, but what I've seen and read does not

suggest to me that Philips is going over well in NH. Of course, when you depend on write-ins (as is the case for Biden) that's quite the uphill battle (but just ask Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, it can be done).

He had a very rude episode/partial meltdown with the Press that has gotten some "X" attention--if that is at all typical of Philip's performances, he may be more bluster than credible... He may have trouble getting any support out of his own Minnesota home state too so he's probably wise to have announced plans to forego reelection.

[bigtree]

17. not even Phillips thinks so

Phillips seeks to lower expectations in New Hampshire

Phillips told NewsNation anchor Chris Cuomo in an interview on Monday he expects he can get above 25 percent of the vote in the first-in-the-nation primary, but getting to the 20s would be “literally unexpected and quite extraordinary.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4423736-phillips-new-hampshire-primary-2024/

[Voltaire2]

19. Unprocessed Writeins is crushing it.

[mcar]

21. Wrong

Link to tweet

I've seen enough: Pres. Joe Biden (D) wins the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

[Ms. Toad]

22. Last report I saw had upwards of 70% write-in votes.

Not necessarily all for Biden - but it sounds like there are a consequential number of them.

ETA: 73.4% as of 7:42 PM

[Hassin Bin Sober]

23. This aged like milk

?feature=shared

[brooklynite]

25. I don't object to being wrong...

...my assessment was based on the lack of an organized write-in effort by the Biden campaign or anyone else.

[WA-03 Democrat]

39. How kind n/t

[Beetwasher.]

58. Uh Yeah, That's the Ticket!

LOL

[Renew Deal]

89. And Jim Beam

[Demsrule86]

95. Do you know how hard it is to organize a write in campaign...that is a serious grass roots

operation. The GOP was busy making phone calls lying that there was no such vote. And yet, there were more than a few intelligent voters who when questioned today said they were there to vote for Biden. Bidend won more of his party's vote than Trump did.

[JohnSJ]

109. +++

[edhopper]

141. Maybe their polling told them

they didn't need to waste money on that.

[Prairie Gates]

33. LOL

What's the saying? "More money than..."

[Hassin Bin Sober]

106. .

[bigtree]

24. lol

...

Link to tweet

[senseandsensibility]

26. I think Biden will win

The write in campaign was a good idea.

[FHRRK]

27. LOL - Somethings are as consistent as the sun rising.

[MustBeTheBooz]

28. Yawn!

Why do you do this?

[Carlitos Brigante]

29. .

?feature=shared

[MistakenLamb]

30. got that one wrong huh?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

31. Current vote with 21.9 % vote counted

Votes received and percentages of total vote
Candidate Votes Pct.
Write-ins 15,898 73.9
Dean Phillips 4,559 21.2
Marianne Williamson 963 4.5

An estimated 21.9 percent of votes have been counted.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/01/23/new-hampshire-primary/?itid=hp-top-table-high_p002_f004

[MLAA]

32. Wasserman disagrees and called it for Biden.

Not sure how reliable he is.

[lapucelle]

34. Wasserman called it for Biden.

Link to tweet

[lapucelle]

35. CNN just called it for Biden. N/T

[Cha]

66. I Am So Happy About This!

Link to tweet

[DemocraticPatriot]

37. WRONG on BOTH counts! Remind me

not to come to you for advice about winning lottery numbers
(although this result was less chancy than a lottery ticket)


Dean Phillips is no Gene McCarthy---
and McCarthy at least had "a cause"!
(opposition to the war in Vietnam)


Phillips had no just cause here, his only cause was 'Biden is old', and he will finish far behind McCarthy's numbers in 1968...

(while McCarthy ran against the incumbent Lyndon Johnson who likewise was not on the ballot but was written-in by NH Democrats and out-polled McCarthy with write-in votes, the margin of victory was just a few percentage points, which was very bad for the incumbent--- I am sure you are very familiar with those historical facts, but they didn't seem to play into your prediction here)


Tonight's results are a Big Victory for the New Hampshire Democratic activists who organized the "Write In Joe Biden" effort!

I trust you are happy with this result, even though your prediction was quite wrong!

[LeftInTX]

51. Biden wasn't even on the ballot...LOL

That's what this was based on. But obviously grass-roots won tonight!

[Wounded Bear]

38. MSNBC is calling for Biden...nt

[spooky3]

41. Darn. I so wanted Vermin Supreme to win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/01/23/new-hampshire-primary/?itid=hp-top-table-high_p002_f004

[Ocelot II]

42. Or...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218620934

[Lucinda]

44. Or not!

[sinkingfeeling]

45. Nope.

[unc70]

49. You are really taken with yourself and wrong again

Surprise! Surprise!

Tell us again who you have spoken to recently.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

52. Dean Phillips is clearly not a winner

Link to tweet

[Cha]

68. "3 years down with 5 to Go.. "

Link to tweet

TY!

[sheshe2]

75. Here is the full quote.

BREAKING: BIDEN CRUSHES DEAN PHILLIPS AS WRITE IN CANAIDATE

President Joe Biden has emphatically won the New Hampshire primary, with almost 75% of Democratic primary voters writing his name in today.

This represents the first time in American history that a candidate has won a primary contest via write in. It also shows Democrats are firmly behind him as our standard bearer!

This guy just keeps making history! Congratulations, President Biden!

#BidenHarris2024 #4MoreYears

[former9thward]

77. Someone does not know history.

Johnson beat McCarthy in NH in 1968 as a write in candidate. Where is this "first time in American history" coming from?

[Captain Zero]

138. Dean Phillips. Young, Cold and out of touch

And he could have done all that staying in Minnesota.

[PufPuf23]

53. Wet blanket from Brooklyn.

Cracks me up, Biden will win easily on write ins.

[we can do it]

54. Guess again.

[Beetwasher.]

55. LOL

[Cha]

61. & SMH

Link to tweet

[dchill]

59. Heh.

[BumRushDaShow]

64. Over and over and over

without fail.

"John Fetterman cannot win."

"Summer Lee cannot win"

Now graduated to "Biden cannot win".

[Emile]

72. +1

[obnoxiousdrunk]

80. AOC is a one hit wonder

add to the list.

[Prairie Gates]

115. The AOC hate in Cobble Hill goes well beyond political differences

Obsessive and deeply disturbing.

[misanthrope]

67. Even if, so what?

What matters is what happens at the convention. People old enough to recall party conventions that weren't as scripted and pro forma as what we've seen the past few decades know all about this.

[DemocraticPatriot]

76. WHY would you even want to post something like this???? Even if

it WAS your personal prediction of the results..... ?????

Cautioning against 'overconfidence' in the General Election is one thing---
but demoralizing the party faithful while a primary election is in progress is quite something else....

Remember the words of President Lincoln ?

paraphrased:

'Sometimes it is better to keep your mouth shut, and be thought a fool,
than to open it and remove all doubt'

I am sure I have failed to abide by that advice a few times--
but never in such a spectacular manner as you have done here!!!!


Oh well, anyone can have a bad day, and you certainly have done so here!

"Never underestimate President 'Fighting Joe' Biden" !!!

[Renew Deal]

91. There are lots of reasons

Trolling and posting while drunk are two potential reasons.

[DemocraticPatriot]

96. those would probably be MY reasons, but not those of the person

from whom the post originated----- I presume.

He is a longtime party big-whig

[Renew Deal]

98. lol

[DemocraticPatriot]

99. I post drunk too much.... LOL but I am honest about it

[Renew Deal]

100. I never do

Most of the time.

[DemocraticPatriot]

103. Good!

lol

Most of the trouble I have gotten myself into was a result of that....

[Prairie Gates]

114. Bridge for sale!

Connects Manhattan and Brooklyn.

[Celerity]

123. Abraham Lincoln? Mark Twain? Biblical Proverb? Maurice Switzer? Arthur Burns? John Maynard Keynes? Confucius? Anonymous?

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/05/17/remain-silent/

Dear Quote Investigator: Here are two versions of an entertaining saying that is usually credited to Abraham Lincoln or Mark Twain:

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.

It’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt.

The phrasing is different, but I think these two statements express the same thought. When I mentioned this adage to a friend he claimed that it was in the Bible, but it does not sound very Biblical to me. Can you resolve this dispute?

Quote Investigator: There is a biblical proverb that expresses a similar idea, namely Proverbs 17:28. Here is the New International Version followed by the King James Version of this verse:

Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent, and discerning if he holds his tongue.

Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding.

The quotations that the questioner listed use a distinctive formulation that is certainly more humorous. In the biblical version one is thought wise if one remains silent, but in the questioner’s statements the word “wise” is not used. Remaining silent simply allows one to avoid the fate of being thought a fool or stupid. This maxim has many different forms, and it is often ascribed to Abraham Lincoln or Mark Twain. However, there is no substantive evidence that either of these famous individuals employed the maxim. The wonderful Yale Book of Quotations (YBQ) investigated the saying and presented the earliest known attribution to Lincoln in Golden Book magazine in November 1931:

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.
— ABRAHAM LINCOLN.

Since Lincoln died in 1865 this is a suspiciously late instance, and it provides very weak evidence. Further, YBQ indicated that the phrase was in use years before this date with no attachment to Lincoln. The ascription of the saying to Mark Twain is also dubious.

snip

[texasfiddler]

79. Your prediction was wrong. Why did you post such an incorrect thought?

[brooklynite]

86. So people should only post predictions that turn out to be true?

[dpibel]

94. Insiders who counsel Jaime

should really have a better grasp of the sitch.

But, hey. Wear that face egg with pride!

[Demsrule86]

87. You were joking right?

I had no doubt Biden would win.

[madaboutharry]

92. Even folks from Brooklyn sometimes get it wrong.

Dems from New Hampshire weren’t going to let Dean Phillips have a win. I would have cast a write-in vote for Biden if I lived in NH.
I wouldn’t want Phillips to have an inch.

[Demsrule86]

101. My hubs say those in Brooklyn...need to discuss things with those from the Bronx before making...

predictions. Hubs was born in the Bronx of course.

kidding...

[madaboutharry]

102. My mom is from Brooklyn.

She’s never wrong….🧐

[edisdead]

97. Oh man this is one to bookmark!

Get thee to the greatest ever page!!

This is some spectacular fail right here.

[JohnSJ]

107. Definitely

[SoFlaBro]

122. Epic! Exactly as I PREDICTED! KnowNothingStradamus is around here somewhere.

[LudwigPastorius]

105. I guess Phillips didn't give people the urge to go...

to the polls to vote for him.

[SocialDemocrat61]

112. Wow! That was spectacularly wrong!

Last edited Wed Jan 24, 2024, 09:47 AM - Edit history (1)

Talk about a humiliation and total loss of credibility.

[SaintLouisBlues]

146. Although it's hard to lose something you don't have, he gave it the old college try.

[Vinca]

116. Phillips got creamed. It was amazing. I've never seen a write-in candidate do it, but Joe did.

Plus, I heard there were quite a few Dems who changed their party affiliation at the polls and voted for Haley just to mess with Trump. New Hampshire is weird. You can change parties right after you walk in the door, if you want, and change it back as you leave.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

118. These results make me smile

Link to tweet

[JI7]

120. Is he still running ?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

124. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[MineralMan]

125. Makes me smile, too.

Doom and gloom is an ugly way to go, I think.

I'm happy the OP was so badly incorrect.

[Cha]

145. TY LMPV.. Music to my Eyes!

[MineralMan]

126. How amusing.

[edhopper]

127. Awaiting our resident insider

Last edited Thu Jan 25, 2024, 01:57 PM - Edit history (1)

to admit how wrong he was.

[MineralMan]

129. You'll wait a long time for him...

Maybe that should be a song title...

[brooklynite]

136. Dince ackowledging mistaken predictions the key point, you'll be doing the same?

I acknowledged I was wrong on Tuesday.

[MineralMan]

143. Well, you made an excuse for why you were wrong, anyhow.

Go back and reread this thread. All of it. That's my suggestion.

[brooklynite]

132. How about...on Tuesday?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18620822

[JohnSJ]

128. Do you have any stock tips you would recommend?

[MineralMan]

130. Nyuk, Nyuk...

[lees1975]

131. This was about as accurate a prediction as RCP or 538 or BTRNR

[Captain Zero]

133. DU posts usually age better than this one.

But that's just my opinion.

[SoFlaBro]

137. It's like a turd with a tip. Smoke up.

[Chakaconcarne]

142. Is it too late to delete the thread?

[John Shaft]

144. Cringe

[LetMyPeopleVote]

147. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Cha]

149. "I Don't Always Decline To Be On A State Ballot But When I Do.."

Priceless!!

Link to tweet

[honest.abe]

148. Delete is your friend.