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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsI'm feeling much more optimistic Biden will win now
Last edited Thu Jan 25, 2024, 07:17 PM - Edit history (1)
1. In states that are currently engaged and voting Trump is under performing and doing terrible with moderates
2. Trump isn't doing anything to appeal to moderates and in fact he is sounding more extreme. He made an attempt in Iowa but he has no impulse control and that will help sink him.
3. Biden will likely raise a billion in campaign funds this year as he did last time and has hardly dipped into any of his money yet and Trump's war chest will be drained by his constant legal battles that are only going to get worse.
4. Trump's legal issues are going to start taking center stage in the news cycles. If he gets convicted on just 1 thing polls show his numbers will take a major hit.
5. The economy doesn't appear it's going to dip into recession but continue to do really well as inflation drops
6. Mitt Romney was beating Obama in the polls a year out and we saw how that turned out
7. The abortion issue alone may be enough to shift it to us in a close election and is why Dems are out performing most polls
8. Trump's making more and more dementia type gaffs which is neutralizing the age advantage he had over Biden
9. Biden has a TON of artillery to start firing at Trump in the next 11 months. Ads showing all the people who worked for Trump saying he is crazy and a threat to democracy. Just playing clips of Jan 6th and trump saying they were peaceful shows he is chaotic, a liar, and dangerous.
10. Trump saying he would be dictator for a day was a MAJOR fuck up! Anyone on the fence will be freaked out by this and the ads will be playing non-stop leading up to election day.
11. I think all the stress and anger are causing his cognitive decline to speed up making the likelihood of more gaffs and angry chaotic outbursts very likely.
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Scrivener7
(59,522 posts)I'm someone who feels more in control if I hold all the possible pitfalls in my mind so I am not surprised by them and can work against them, but I'm becoming more optimistic.
forgotmylogin
(7,952 posts)It seems Nikki Haley understands that there's a chance 45 might get disqualified, and that's why she's hanging in despite numbers that would cause all other candidates to drop out. There are two possibilities.
#1: Trump is anointed with special powers nobody else has and kept on the ballot. If his trial dates get delayed through his machinations, he might get to run. This will hopefully again infuriate Democratic voters who will swarm like honeybees to the polls on Election Day like last time to suffocate a killer hornet. The election will be a terrifying politically apocalyptic nail-biter with tons of challenges and hopefully won't get thrown to the House or the USC to decide.
#2: If Trump is forced to step aside for any of a hundred reasons, it's a match between Biden and Haley. While Haley has a raft of problems, she's actually a much legitimately better candidate with appeal that might challenge Biden for voters. She's the lesser of two evils, but she seems much more an "old school" Republican, and likely has much more of a conscience and lacks the grudges Trump plans to have his revenge for. She will lose bigots who'd never vote for a woman or someone whose parents are from India despite being a US citizen, and likely most hardcore MAGAts who will stay home in protest, but will gain moderates and conservatives back to the fold. Like most presidents, in the situation where she gets elected, I suspect she will drift more moderate to govern everyone as one would hope under normal political circumstances.
My choice would be #2 - get Trump out of the picture early and have a legitimate election minus legal drama. Trump is an easier candidate to beat fairly, but he won't play fair.
Scrivener7
(59,522 posts)like you I would prefer Haley. BUT one thing that weighs against Haley is that we should never underestimate the sexism of the American public. I think she would be less strong against Biden than we might think because she is a woman.
Trueblue Texan
(4,466 posts)I'm seeing more and faster mental decline in TFG than ever before. I don't know if he even makes it to the primary. That scenario worries me even more than him being the candidate for the Rs. I expect nothing but chaos, no matter what happens.
CrispyQ
(40,970 posts)Is the VP candidate their new presidential candidate?
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)forgotmylogin
(7,952 posts)Again, she's the lesser of two evils. My hope is she was originally throwing red meat to the pro-life crowd. I hope in the unlikely event of a Haley presidency, she would swing more moderate since she's seems to have a conscience.
Ideally at minimum completely unchaining OBGYN doctors from making advanced medically-necessary calls and not requiring an inviable pregnancy to be carried until the woman is lying on the floor dying, plus unlimited access to termination in cases of rape or incest.
mobeau69
(12,374 posts)
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)That will destabilize the world and let China think they can invade Taiwan and lead to who knows how many more conflicts bubbling up.
Doodley
(11,913 posts)mobeau69
(12,374 posts)15. Trump would endanger Medicare and Social Security.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)Doodley
(11,913 posts)
TigressDem
(5,126 posts)AND even when he's exercising outdoors playing golf.... he's basically carrying a lightening rod.
One can only hope.
niyad
(132,440 posts)rod. .is it still true that limp dick state has the highest number of lughtning strikes in the country?
One continues to hope.
Dulcinea
(10,090 posts)where the bishop was playing golf in a thunderstorm & got electrocuted by a lightning bolt?
usonian
(25,325 posts)While GQP spouts nothing but culture wars, they actually do have a platform.
Here's what they want.
• Government dictates what you read, your religion and your private life. Period trackers mandatory, and report to the government. I call it "tubal litigation"
• More welfare for the rich.
• Americans pitted against each other along lines of race, color, religion, gender and income. Vilification of blacks, Jews, Muslims, homeless, and women of strength, with increasing violence, even murder against them.
• Private health care companies deny needed treatments to save money. (Death panels are here!)
• The wealthy pay even less in taxes.
• Every civil right is eroded by clown judges living in the 18th century rewriting the constitution.
• Worker's rights and benefits reduced in order to create greater profits for businesses.
• Safety nets removed, so that homeless, and jobless people are left to die on the streets.
• More, more, more of culture war.
• GUNS, everywhere, with no limitations or requirements. Kids get them freely.
• Minorities and women blamed for every imaginable blip.
• Support of authoritarian regimes across the globe, who eagerly imprison, "re-educate", murder and commit atrocities on others.
• Lies, hate speech and threats are welcomed on "social media" and given support by government officials.
• Medical care and prescription drug costs skyrocket. (and more ... )
Reposted from:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18584492
CentralMass
(16,971 posts)I hope that we have a good turnout.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)
Lanius
(662 posts)When Trump came on the scene the family on that side split between Trumpers and never-Trumpers. To this day they still barely speak to each other.
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)I'd imagine that you can never have much in the way of confidence if it is based on if Republicans will vote for a Democrat.
byronius
(7,973 posts)Voted for Obama and has never turned back.
Makes it easy to love and respect him. He’s 85 and hikes every week with a senior group, mostly in their nineties.
D23MIURG23
(3,138 posts)If you watch the Bulwark channel on youtube it's full of former republicans who are now committed to Biden. Bill Kristol (of all people) is a regular guest who is now anti-Trump and committed to vote for Biden. I know people IRL who are like this as well.
A few of my old friends who are libertarian have gone Trump sympathetic. A couple claim to be Gary Johnson voters in the last election, but will defend basically anything Trump has done.
I think the dividing line is whether you are actually patriotic at the end of the day, and what you think of government institutions. If you hate the US Government and want a president who will wage war on it then Trump is your guy. If you support our system of government and think the US Government can be a force for good, then you are in the Biden camp. As the campaign moves on IMO this is going to become clearer.
CrispyQ
(40,970 posts)lots of ballots had voted for the republican senator but left the presidency blank. They don't have to vote for Biden they just have to leave Trump blank or not vote at all. Trump at the top of their ballot will hurt almost all their down ballot races. 
bigtree
(94,265 posts)
Brainfodder
(7,781 posts)And all his lying goons trying to make up whatever to cover/normalize his awful?
He never has details, just generic negative statements and the same ones, plus add:
1) His cognitive test result bragging
2) His crowd size bragging
3) His 50ish% wins as landslides
How many Republicans testified against him to grand juries, 250+?
Nine months+, MUHAHA!
We are gonna need a bigger FORK!
durablend
(9,270 posts)There's no chance they're going to play fair
Scrivener7
(59,522 posts)LymphocyteLover
(9,847 posts)
CTyankee
(68,202 posts)Nikki exemplifies that in the GOP. That's gotta hurt...
LymphocyteLover
(9,847 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Biden isn't at risk of losing support to Trump. He's at risk of losing support to third party candidates. There are a lot of voters who really dislike both Biden and Trump. In fact, in the latest YouGov poll (which was frequently quoted here as it was one of only a handful that had Biden up on Trump - tho now he's down to Trump in it) Trump actually has a better overall favorability rating than Biden.
Trump is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, while Biden is viewed favorably by 44% of voters. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 52% - Biden 53%.
That's a total difference of four-points.
Not a lot but in 2020 exit polls, 52% of voters viewed Biden favorably and 46% unfavorable - or almost identical to his total nationally.
For Trump, it was 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable - or similar to the final outcome.
That means, compared to election day, 2020, Biden's unfavorable rating has risen by seven-points, while his favorable has dropped by 8 points. That's a net difference of 15 points since election day 2020.
Conversely, Trump's unfavorable rating remains unchanged at 52% and his favorable rating is also unchanged.
What does that tell me? Trump has not lost much support from 2020 but Biden has. That support Biden lost isn't going to Trump but it very well could go to a third party and that definitely could win Trump the election depending on how many of those voters don't vote Biden.
Right now, if 2024 mirrors the 2020 election where Biden and Trump receive the percent of support as their favorable numbers, Trump would win the popular vote 46% to 44%, with the rest going third party.
That would win him the election, even though he didn't grow his support from four years ago.
Biden has work to do to get his numbers back up again. At this point, I'm not sure I'm ready to say Biden is the underdog but I'm not convinced he's the favorite, either.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)think favorably of Trump?
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)If they supported him then, not really hard to imagine why they'd support him now.
Think of it this way: if after four years, an impeachment, cozying up to dictators, hundreds of thousands dead from COVID, they still supported him in that election, it's not a surprise they'd still support him now.
et tu
(2,387 posts)we are going to have a big blue tsunami,
women's lives depend on it~
Sane1
(214 posts)Is “Sammy the Bull” Gravano. Great guy!
ificandream
(11,837 posts)And those mentions aren't likely to stop.
Mad_Machine76
(24,957 posts)The Republicans keep coming up empty-handed regarding their "Biden Corruption/Crime Family" wet fever dreams. To date, none of their attempts to pin anything on JOE have borne any fruit and their impeachment inquiry, such as it is, is going nowhere fast.
sop
(18,624 posts)Only way Biden loses is if Democrats don't turn out.
oldsoftie
(13,538 posts)LymphocyteLover
(9,847 posts)
NNadir
(38,049 posts)...in contrast to Biden's excellent intellectual and physical condition will seal the deal.
womanofthehills
(10,988 posts)According to Reuters new poll. Low voter turnout can be a problem & no matter what a jerk Trump is - he is still leading in all but one poll.
“Eighteen percent of Americans said they would not vote in next year’s election if it’s a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump, according to a poll released this week.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 67 percent of Americans said they were “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new.” In addition, 18 percent said they are not likely to vote in the November election if it is a choice between Biden or Trump. “
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/18-percent-in-new-poll-say-they-wouldn-t-vote-in-trump-biden-rematch/ar-BB1hg4im
oldsoftie
(13,538 posts)He's spending a ton of it on legal bills & the GOP donors are closing their wallets. Will the Kochs donate to him? Who knows, but a lot of BIG $ donors have already said "nope"
Abortion is a major deal to may GOP voters who never thought they'd see it banned.
I really wish Haley could've win last night; it may have been the tripwire to make trump TOTALLY lose his shit; beaten by a WOMAN!
BUT......this election will be won in GA,WI,MI,AZ,PA & NV. Biden only won 2020 by about 45000 votes even though we had record turnout. In SUCH an important election.
Turnout is the biggest factor over & above all the good points you made.
Baltimike
(4,441 posts)
MistakenLamb
(791 posts)Independent voters and College Educated voters are mostly repealed by him
LymphocyteLover
(9,847 posts)but still we can't take anything for granted.
Joinfortmill
(21,169 posts)Burst into tears, after I wrote in Joe's name
SarahD
(1,732 posts)Moderates and unaffiliated voters seem.to be turning away from Trump.
GreenWave
(12,641 posts)and it's for COVID which wiped out many Magat voters for believing IQ 45-47= -2!
agingdem
(8,849 posts)Last edited Thu Jan 25, 2024, 07:44 AM - Edit history (2)
gone is the larger than life real estate magnate/television personality...he has a malicious history and a trunk load of toxic baggage..set aside the 91 felony counts/tax fraud/sexual assault/tossing the Constitution/revenge and retribution/fomenting violence/Nazi dictator speak...I'm talking while he occupied the a Oval Office: massive corruption/ignoring and downplaying a global pandemic/1,000,000 covid dead because of his callous disregard for human life/the Muslim ban/overt racism/Charlottesville "good people of both sides"/separating families/babies in cages/"shit hole countries"/weaponizing the DOJ to punish his perceived enemies/an "acting" cabinet of conmen/insulting our allies/dissing NATO/romancing oligarchs and despots/sharing classified information with Russian dignitaries/nepotism on a grand scale/enriching his bottomline by accepting "bribes" from our enemies/plotting a coup/inciting an insurrection/debasing election workers by name...
Trump is no longer a curiosity or an anomaly..he's a rambling amoral delusional malignant psychopath and one of the most despised subhumans on the planet..he's a "known" and he ain't gonna win..
LiberalFighter
(53,544 posts)There might be some key points by themselves that can do him in. But add more to the scale.
DC77
(144 posts)This is a doozy.
wiggs
(8,812 posts)Putin, Netanyahu, Orban, or SA to influence or for Trump to make a shitshow out of.
Dem leaders and pundits listening?? Biden over Trump is an EASY case to make, but it needs to be made over and over and over.
Qutzupalotl
(15,824 posts)Trump rambles, and his condition is only going to deteriorate. Joe has command of the facts and a calm, steady demeanor.
If Trump bails, highlight his cowardice by including an empty chair with a red tie on it. “That's what we used in debate prep.”
senseandsensibility
(24,975 posts)I agree with all your points and am feeling more confident as well.
Tribetime
(7,145 posts)Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)senseandsensibility
(24,975 posts)It seems good though.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)is expected to win not which person because several other people draw from the main candidates. For example for which party, Predictit has Dems winning the Presidency but has it almost even with Trump as far as Biden vs Trump because guys like Newsom pull a lot from Biden. Unless it's a head to head match-up then you are getting a clouded picture. Also, they are much less likely to be accurate this far out. How they are betting the night before the election is when they are by far the most accurate. Right now they are just showing trends and in the past week Biden / Democratic Party has gained momentum. Probably because Trump did poorly with independents in Iowa and NH and because of Trump calling Haley, Nancy Pelosi.
Sports betting sites are going to be mostly people who vote on sports, dabbling with politics, people who don't really know tried and true political trends and who are not looking deeper into the numbers. They are probably looking only at current poll numbers, which have actually tightened to about even.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Can't trust polls - at least the ones showing Biden losing.
Can't trust betting sites - at least the ones that show Biden losing.
Just don't believe what's in front of our eyes. Got it.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)As we saw with Obama vs Romney. Also, will you admit that the polls have been mostly wrong recently with most Dems over performing in congress and local races? Mostly because of the abortion issue.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)They shouldn't be taken as gospel but they're not meaningless. They at least give you a snapshot of the mood of the country, especially as it deals with a president running for reelection.
The truth of the matter is that at this point in 2020, Trump was losing on average to Biden 44.5 to 48.5 - or a margin of 4 points. Biden would win by 4.5 points that November.
You mention Obama vs Romney but in polling averages at this point, Obama was beating Romney by an average total of 47.3 to 45 - or a margin of 2.3 points. Obama would win that election by 3.9 points.
Obama was in much better shape in 2012 than Biden is right now. Especially in swing states. Do you want to know how many polls in 2012 from Ohio had Obama losing? Eight. Eight out of hundreds. That's through the entire span of the campaign vs Romney.
From the end of 2011 through to election day.
It was the same in Michigan. Obama rarely trailed in the major swing states.
You want to know the last time Biden led in a poll in Michigan? October. By two.
He did tie in one from October but since that poll, he's been down 5, 10, 4 & 8 points there.
Biden isn't winning reelection without Michigan. Just like Romney wasn't winning the White House without Ohio. Right now, Biden has way more in common with Romney than he does Obama and that's concerning.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)In Iowa and NH Trump is doing terrible with independents and moderate Republicans. Most people are simply not paying much attention to this election right now except in these states. In almost every election you see a big shift one way or the other starting a couple of weeks before the election as people make their absolute final decisions. Also, the economy is improving and inflation is dropping. Wages are outpacing inflation. By any historical standards incumbents with a good economy are very hard to beat.
I'm not saying Biden has this in the bag. It's going to be close but the new data we are starting to see in states that are paying attention is extremely encouraging.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Trump isn't going to increase his vote total over 2020.
My concern is third parties. That's where Biden can lose this election.
They're going to decide this race and right now, polling suggests a lot of voters are waaaaaay more open to voting third party this year than we were seeing in 2020.
The way I see it: both Biden and Trump are starting this race at 45%. There's 10% who are undecided/thinking of voting third party.
The good news is that I think most that 10% is not going to vote for Trump no matter what.
But Biden needs to win at least half of that 10% or he's at risk losing similarly to how Hillary lost in 2016.
If Biden gets half that 10%, that pushes him to 50% nationally and that probably is enough to win him the electoral college.
But my fear is a 2016 scenario where Biden gets 48%, Trump 46% and the third parties get 6% or something and the narrowness of the win throws the EC to Trump.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)honest.abe
(9,238 posts)
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)honest.abe
(9,238 posts)So many were "concerned" about Hillary.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Because you all ignored the warning signs and kept telling everyone there was no chance Trump could win. So, a bunch of voters got complacent and decided to vote third party since Hillary had it in the bag anyway.
You want to know why Biden won in 2020? Because every voter was scared shitless he was going to lose and concerned about him losing so they decided not to vote third party. They banded together and third party support dropped from 6.04 in 2016 to 1.95% in 2020.
You're recreating the same environment that we heard in 2016: Hillary is inevitable. There's no way Trump can win. All these third party voters will eventually wise up and come around ... and it never happened.
To ignore what voters are saying is absolute hubris.
Biden should 100% be focused on why he's polling so poorly at this stage of the race.
But continue on, pretending everything is fine. Ignorance is bliss as they say.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)Response to honest.abe (Reply #91)
Post removed
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)honest.abe
(9,238 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Pisces
(6,235 posts)Out there and everyone should be concerned. If you’re not concerned you learned nothing from 2016!
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Being terrified that Biden could lose is not the same thing as thinking he will lose.
But I am not confident at the moment. Now, to be fair, I am not confident he will lose - I just don't know what to think. For eight years we've been told this is finally what gets Trump and every time, he seems to hang around. Right now, I am not feeling better about the election. That isn't to say in a month I won't be feeling better. But for now, I worry. I'm scared shitless.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)RCP tracks the betting markets and Trump has his biggest lead there on the averages since the campaign really began:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/
Election Betting Odds is another site that pulls odds from multiple markets. Trump leads Biden 51.2-37.4:
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Tribetime
(7,145 posts)MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Predict is included in the electionbettingodds.com site I linked to.
The markets still favor Trump on the whole.
Tribetime
(7,145 posts)honest.abe
(9,238 posts)
lees1975
(7,046 posts)If these polls had been reliable to predict the 2020 outcome, a year before the election, Trump would have won by double digits. They're a joke. They only get accurate when elections get close, otherwise, they can't write stories defending their alleged credibility. They show how close they were just a few weeks out, but you never hear them say anything about a six month average. Or they just flatly change what they actually showed and then lie about it.
Look how badly the "great" A+ polls missed New Hampshire. They predicted almost exactly the opposite of what happened.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)Four years ago today, Biden led Trump by four points in the average of polls.
In fact, there was no point in the h2h average between Biden and Trump where Trump led Biden:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
What I know is that for months, we've been told to ignore polls this far out and every other sign Biden might be in trouble.
Well sure, polls should be taken with skepticism this far out. But it's just crazy to not see at least some major warning signs for Biden.
I hear how Trump is more unpopular than ever and yet his polling vs Biden only continues to improve.
Take Ipsos, which is a fairly respected polling firm. In their December poll, Trump led Biden 38-36.
In their poll out today, Trump leads Biden 40-34.
Now, since there's a huge undecided total from this poll, it's not something I would freak out over.
But it does show that Biden isn't growing his support. He's down two points. Trump is up two points.
Dismissing these numbers is not smart. Biden is struggling and so many of you are just telling us to ignore what's right in front of us.
Every month, it's the same since September: ignore polls this far out.
And here we are at the end of January, four months later, and Biden's position has actually weakened.
Still being told this far out doesn't matter.
Well I'm terrified we're going to wake up on election day with Biden down 5 to Trump, and down in major swing states.
I do not feel confident at all in Biden's chances. That doesn't mean I think he's going to lose but I've yet to see any substantial reason to believe he's going to win.
At this point in 2020, I absolutely thought Biden or any Democrat for that matter could beat Trump.
And on this day in 2012, I thought Obama would win too.
Of course, the polls had both winning. But back then, DU wasn't against polls. It was only conservatives who attacked polls.
But I feel like Biden is hurtling toward the same spot Trump found himself in four years ago and so many here are ignoring the warning signs.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)It's statements like that from those who appear to be knowledgeable Democrats will hurt Biden's chances the most. It will demoralize his supporters and reduce campaign donations and campaign efforts. If you really care about Biden winning this election I would suggest refraining from these types of negative comments.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)1. I'm not here to please you. What you find garbage is irrelevant to me.
2. I'm also not here to bury my head in the sand. I've made well-reasoned points on why I'm worried. I have not attacked Biden or even put him down. But I'm not going to pretend he's in an enviable place right now. He's not. And no amount of pretending otherwise is going to change that.
So we can all just bury our heads, ignore the warning signs and wake up the day after election day completely floored Biden lost - or we can see the vulnerabilities of his campaign and hope his campaign is not taking the same approach so many here are taking by dismissing every warning sign.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)I also am not here to "please you". I am here to make sure Joe Biden wins in Nov. Why are you here??
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)I am curious about that logic lol
You're falling into the same trap everyone on DU fell into back in 2016: any level of concern about Hillary's chances were met with people becoming unglued. There was no way Hillary could lose! You're just trying to depress voter turnout!
Guess what?
The exact opposite happened. People refused to see the warning signs and the threat of Donald Trump as president never felt real. So many voters thought Hillary had it in the bag that they decided to vote third party and enough of those voters threw the election to Donald Trump.
Refusing to accept the reality of the current landscape is dooming Biden to a loss - either by ignoring what needs to be done or by setting up expectations that there's no way he can lose and everything suggesting he could lose is just fake news.
That level of complacency is just screaming for voters to support someone other than Biden and Trump. After all, Biden has this in the bag, right?
My concern is my concern. I see the exact same environment that gave us Donald Trump in 2016 forming again this go around. And yes, it's frustrating sitting back and watching everyone pretend everything is hunky-dory.
Well if I can scare enough people into taking this threat seriously, so they know that Biden absolutely can lose this election still and no one should feel confident he's going to breeze to reelection, maybe that will convince people to wise up and realize the truth of this election - whether a voter or someone tied to the campaign.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)Our job is donate, organize and get out the vote. Incessantly reminding us about "concerns" you have about Biden is not helping that effort.
MyNameIsJonas
(744 posts)- if you've donated at all.
My role is to discuss the election. I am not going to be a cheerleader for the ignorant. Fortunately, I don't need to be: you have that role locked down.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)Get lost.
Response to honest.abe (Reply #97)
Post removed
wiggs
(8,812 posts)has a major personality disorder and has had all his life. More time needs to be spent discussing this.
https://www.salon.com/2016/11/06/why-donald-trump-scares-you-so-much-and-why-it-matters/
GopherGal
(2,905 posts)about the phrase "enthusiasm gap"
When I google it, it brings up articles positing that this (like seemingly everything else) is a problem for Biden. Until I scroll down the search results list a little and hit some articles that mention democrats' closing of the enthusiasm gap as an explanation for the repuke underperformance in midterms. The articles focus on enthusiasm among pro-Trump republicans vs enthusiasm among pro-Biden democrats.
I think TFG's bragging about overturning Roe plays to his Ride-or-Die base, but isn't going to do him any favors with independents and may actually feed enthusiasm for Biden.
Trump's legal issues and general vileness may rile up his cult base (and his personality disorder means he can't resist pandering to them), but won't do much among independents. But might motivate democrats.
I think the healthy turnout for the write-in indicates Biden enthusiasm is not in such dire straits as the M$M would have us believe.
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)Even if people aren't that excited about Biden, Trump is so vial, Dems will show up to keep Trump far away from the Presidency.
WarGamer
(18,613 posts)When it's election day... people will vote AGAINST Trump even if they're not thrilled with Biden.
kimbutgar
(27,248 posts)TFG is an insane megalomanic who needs to be soundly defeated in 2024 because he is not what America stands for !
D23MIURG23
(3,138 posts)The most effective attack they've had against Biden seems to be the age attack. If they nail Trump with a bunch of attack ads where he's claiming to be running against 'Obamna' and confusing Nancy Pelosi with Nikki Haley, that could neutralize the attack and flip the narrative.
Kind of like the swift boat campaign against Kerry, except not based on lies.
TSExile
(3,363 posts)All the sound bytes of him gloating about being responsible for overturning Roe and mercilessly slandering E. Jean Carroll. Women are angry and he is America's undisputed abusive ex-husband who refuses to go away. That message might even be more effective.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)Biden just needs be normal and make it clear that Trump is not.
Oneironaut
(6,299 posts)WarGamer
(18,613 posts)Biden currently has 117m...
They expect that he will raise a billion+ during the campaign... most recent candidates have.
2020, Biden raised 1.7B and Trump 2.0B
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/20/858347477/money-tracker-how-much-trump-and-biden-have-raised-in-the-2020-election
Quixote1818
(31,155 posts)After listening to him again, he is suggesting Biden will probably raise a billion like he did last time. My mistake.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Q47L_Es9RpM
Shermann
(9,062 posts)
JuJuChen
(2,253 posts)
budkin
(6,849 posts)Especially as Trump is put in the spotlight and people remember how horrible he is.
CrispyQ
(40,970 posts)Everyone is tired of him except his base. I believe there is a large group of republican voters who aren't Never Trumpers, but they aren't Maga either & they are sick of Donald John Trump. They are sick of his constant whining. They are sick of his legal problems. Mostly though, I think they are sick of having to defend their support of this vile piece of shit to family & friends because there is no defense. I never thought there was but there is absolutely zero now.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)More optimism!
shrike3
(5,370 posts)There's someone on this board whose sole purpose seems to be to talk about what a weak candidate Biden is. I can't name them, against the rules. I put them on ignore because I had enough. But I recently looked at DU from another device, and wasn't logged in, and they're still at it. Annoying. We've got enough issues without this nonsense.