New batch of swing state polls shows Trump leading.

[MyNameIsJonas]

Morning Consult has new swing state polling and it shows continued struggles for Biden head-to-head, as he trails in every one of the states he flipped in 2020, as well as Nevada.

Here's the breakdown and how they compare to the previous poll:

https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/01/2401055_Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-4_Crosstabs_All-States-compressed-1.pdf

Arizona: Trump 47, Biden 44 (Trump 46, Biden 42)

Georgia: Trump 49, Biden 41 (Trump 49, Biden 43)

Michigan: Trump 47, Biden 42 (Trump 46, Biden 42)

Nevada: Trump: 48, Biden 40 (Trump 47, Biden 44

North Carolina: Trump 49, Biden 39 (Trump 49, Biden 39)

Pennsylvania: Trump 48, Biden 45 (Trump 44, Biden 46)

Wisconsin: Trump 49, Biden 44 (Trump 45, Biden 41)

So since the last polls done in December, Biden has lost ground.

When Kennedy is added, the outcome does not change but Trump expands his lead to 8 in Arizona, 6 in Michigan, 12 in Nevada, 13 in North Carolina and 8 in Wisconsin. With Kennedy, Trump's lead narrows by one-point in Georgia and stays at three in Pennsylvania.

Tough numbers all around for Biden. He continues to struggle solidify support, while Trump has done a better job hitting his 2020 totals in these states.

Lots of time to turn it around for Biden. But at the moment, he seems to be heading backwards - at least with this batch of polling.

It does seem none of Trump's erratic behavior the last few weeks has blunted his momentum. Let's hope Biden can find some of his own in the next few weeks.

[stonecutter357]

1. lol

[MyNameIsJonas]

2. I know, every single poll is lying.

[GreenWave]

54. They cannot keep up with changes in technology and cannot reach everybody

This is why some polls are off by 10% or more.

[MyNameIsJonas]

64. Every poll can't be wrong.

Biden likely isn't doing as badly as these polls suggest but they're far from the only polls that have him losing. The reality is he's struggling in a lot of these states and no amount of poll denialism is going to change that.

[Kingofalldems]

67. Should we give up?

[MyNameIsJonas]

71. No but we should be aware of his vulnerabilities.

But really, not much we can do. I've already given Biden a few hundred dollars the last few months and I'll give more. I'll still work to GOTV but the current message Biden's campaign is pushing doesn't seem to be working.

In fact, I think it could end up hurting. All we hear, even here, is how great the economy is and this and that but for a lot of people, it's rough.

Hearing how awesome the stock market is doing or how low unemployment is doesn't help those who are struggling to pay rent or buy groceries. And continuing to tell people how great things are can come across as out of touch.

[riversedge]

77. The link says this was an on-line poll. I have no idea what that means.

[sheshe2]

114. I have seen on line polls before...

Actually participated for the fun of it, you can skew the polls because you can vote multiple times. The few I did were about the gop/trump. I wouldn't take any on line poll seriously.

[Cha]

122. I would not either.. Thanks, she!

[elleng]

126. Sounds like 'useless' to me.

[mucifer]

3. I keep hearing from moderate people I know they don't like trump or Biden

it's sickening. These are people that voted for President Obama that are considering Haley. It's so messed up. They know how to message. I think the cost of food, insurance, housing etc and the xenophobia are working for them. Plus he is losing young voters on Gaza.

[MyNameIsJonas]

5. Yup. Biden is in trouble.

It's easy for so many here to bury their heads but they're not seeing the one constant that every poll is showing: Biden is bleeding out support to third parties.

Even when third parties aren't included, Biden often falls into the low 40s in these polls as there are large undecideds. Trump has done a much better job according to these polls holding onto the support he received in 2020.

If Biden loses in November, it'll be due to third parties. Trump still isn't expanding his vote total but he doesn't need to if Biden loses even a small amount of support to third parties.

[Torchlight]

9. Dig into numbers. Trump is barely ballast.

Trump is hemorrhaging independents and moderates at a rate that far outpaces the relatively minimal losses Biden is suffering (and no need for the reductio ad absurdum slogan).

I see no evidence that simply disagreeing with a premise or a conclusion is burying heads in sand.

[MyNameIsJonas]

12. Point me to to this data.

[Torchlight]

18. Most recently, just last week Haley picked up 58% of New Hampshire's independent voters

who made up about 44% of the primary electorate, compared with Trump's 39%. Compare that to Trump taking 71% of independents in the the last go-around there.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/exit-polls/new-hampshire/republican-primary/0

[MyNameIsJonas]

25. I meant nationally. Not a state Biden won by 7 points in 2020.

And that number is irrelevant when discussing indies vs Biden. Especially since a lot of Democrats openly admitted to changing their registration to independent in NH to vote Haley.

I'm not worried about Trump pulling in more support than he did in 2020. I'm worried that Biden is losing support to third parties.

But the most recent polls shows Biden doing worse among independents voters than Trump.

[Torchlight]

29. Republican state primary seems pretty damned relevant to the here and now. More so than polls

Trump losing that much absolute support in one cycle is stunning, and without any valid comparisons to Biden's side.

I'd hate to think anyone was 'burying their head in the sand' because the numbers don't support a particular narrative, and then begin moving goalposts in reponse.

[Kingofalldems]

40. Bad things about Democrats.

[yardwork]

97. Yes, that was disgraceful.

[Polybius]

59. I hear the same thing, and age is sometimes thrown in

"Both too old" BS is thrown out a lot.

[Mad_Machine76]

141. Not likely

That Haley will be the nominee.

[DestinyIsles]

4. If people believe this then I got a NFT bridge to sell you

[MyNameIsJonas]

6. Yeah. Every single poll is lying.

[brooklynite]

7. ...except the ones that say something we like.

[MyNameIsJonas]

13. Which are becoming fewer and fewer.

[NoRethugFriends]

30. Enjoying this, aren't you

[MyNameIsJonas]

31. I don't enjoy losing.

[Demsrule86]

147. Well happy days for you then...because we are going to win...

[Demsrule86]

62. Oh yeah, one would think they would learn from past er errors.

[Cha]

109. No kidding.. TY for saying what I've been thinking!

Unreal.

[awesomerwb1]

83. Your comment history

is interesting. Keep up the good work bro.

[JohnSJ]

44. Like those who told us Biden would lose in NH?

[Demsrule86]

65. Same crew.

[brooklynite]

118. What does my comment on the DU community's response to polling have to do with New Hampshire?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

101. And if you dont look at them, President Biden will win:)

[obnoxiousdrunk]

8. Yes it is

a conspiracy .

[kcr]

87. Polls are unreliable, particularly this early

[SoFlaBro]

116. Online Polls are hot fucking garbage.

[Takket]

10. These polls are worthless hardly anyone is paying attention to this stuff

You may as well ask a lot of these people who if they like Star Trek or Star Wars better and they’ll give you an answer even if they’ve never seen either one.


When we get into the fall and the economy is still humming and drumpf is on trial or convicted, people will actually make an informed choice and Biden will win most of those states.

[JohnSJ]

11. The polls also say in these swing states that if trump is convicted, over 50% of those swing state

voters will NOT vote for trump if he is convicted of a crime.

That sure indicates to me a lot of volatility in these polls, and uncertainty.

[MyNameIsJonas]

14. Do you really believe that?

That there's a huge segment of the population who say in no terms will they vote Trump if convicted but are fine doing so RIGHT NOW?

That doesn't wash, especially since he was already convicted by a jury of sexual abuse and he still leads.

[CrispyQ]

17. There are more of us then there are of them.

We have to GOTV & be on the lookout for dirty tricks & intimidation cuz there is going to be chaos galore this election.

[MyNameIsJonas]

26. I agree there's more anti-Trump vote than pro.

But as it was in 2016, a lot of that anti-Trump support is also anti-Biden or at least looking third party.

[JohnSJ]

43. Really. In this poll 43% voted for trump in 2016, and only 33% voted for Hillary. 5% voted

someone else.

This poll is weighted in favor of those who voted for trump in 2016

[JohnSJ]

45. This poll is weighted in favor of those who voted for trump in 2016.

In the polls statistics, 43% voted for trump in 2016, 33% voted for Hillary. 5% voted for someone else.

There are a lot of complicated supplementary questions in this poll, that give contradictory responses, especially with questions on abortion and guns, and social security.

[former9thward]

76. That adds to 81%.

Who did the other 19% vote for? No one?

[JohnSJ]

78. They didn't indicate in the statistics, so I assume they didn't vote.

[JohnSJ]

42. I guess you only believe the polls you want. How convenient. That has been confirmed

by multiple pollsters, and you don't believe it. Bloomberg, which was involved in the poll you stated, and just reported that on Bloomberg TV.

The poll you posted also indicated this. When asked if they think abortion is important, 55% of WOMEN think it is very important. That runs counter to other polls which indicated more like 70% + women think it is very important.

"Nine months ahead of the first presidential primary of the 2024 election season, many voters, especially women, say candidates’ views on abortion will again be a key issue, and Democrats hold a strong edge over Republicans on the issue, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds."

https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/press-release/new-kff-survey-finds-abortion-remains-key-issue-for-voters-with-democrats-holding-a-sizeable-edge-over-republicans-a-third-of-women-say-theyll-only-vote-for-someone-who-shares-their-views/

In the poll across all demographics around 60%+ believe Democracy, healthcare, is important.

yet when they reword the question:
Asking this a different way, what is the sing most important issue to you when deciding how to vote in the November 2024 election:

The economy, immigration, and democracy garner the most

Abortion, foreign affairs, social security not so much, and they didn't even list healthcare.

With that question abortion garners only 9% of women in this poll which is a complete contradiction to what other polls are saying.

Except for climate change, handling China, and education, according to this poll around 20-25% of African Americans think trump can handle all the other issues better?

Really? Do you believe that 20% of African Americans think trump can handle the majority of issues better than Biden?

On abortion, 34% of women think trump can handle it better than Biden, and 40% of women think Biden can handle it better than trump? Do you believe that?

On social security 40% of registered voters think both trump and Biden can handle that equally. Same with Democracy and Healthcare. Do you believe that?

For registered voters handling of Unions, trump has a slight majority? Really?

This is a very complicated poll, with a lot of supplemental question, and contradictions.

So you can push this poll all you want, as you have other polls, but there is a lot of volatility going on, and what this poll or others don't measure what will women, minorities, and the young voters actually do in November.

Another interesting statistic in this poll:

Of Those polled 43% voted for trump in 2016
33% voted for Clinton
5% voted for someone else.

[calguy]

130. Which goes to show...

Last edited Wed Jan 31, 2024, 10:17 PM - Edit history (1)

Polls can produce almost any outcome desired, depending on which questions are asked, and how those questions are worded.
Two things are important to me with early polls. One: Most voters won't even be tuned in to the election like we are until around September.

Two: Biden has definite vulnerabilities, but he hasn't even started campaigning yet. A lot of big time money is lining up behind him and is yet to come in play.

[JohnSJ]

135. Excellent perspective

[ProfessorGAC]

92. So...

...you want everyone to accept these results ("All polls are lying?&quot , but you immediately question the results you don't like.
That's awfully convenient.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

145. Who's cherry picking polls now?

[CrispyQ]

15. Meh. We're so far out from the election these polls don't mean anything.

Everything is getting worse for Donald—his legal problems, his finances, his health, his good looks, (checking if y'all have had your coffee) all of it is spinning into a tighter & tighter downward spiral.

Also, none of the $250 million in ads that we learned about yesterday have even started yet.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/politics/2024-election-biden-super-pac/index.html

CNN — The preeminent super PAC helping to reinforce President Joe Biden’s reelection bid has reserved $250 million in television and digital advertising in top battleground states in hopes of carrying the message from the Democratic convention in August through Election Day.

Best of all...today could be Engoron Day!!!

[Walleye]

16. One thing I do know, Putin loves this constant polling, it keeps him hanging on in Ukraine

[Emile]

19. Another one of your Biden is in trouble posts.

[Blaukraut]

21. It's starting to work.

I'm just about ready to give up. Biden is going to lose and there isn't anything I can do about that. If voters are willing to overlook everything horrible Trump has done, and at the same time, willfully ignore everything Biden has accomplished, there is no solution.

[MyNameIsJonas]

27. I've posted plenty of positive polls too. But there haven't been many lately.

I'm not the reason Biden is struggling. Remember that.

[gab13by13]

48. How is he struggling?

because of polls? Bidenomics Baby.

Where I go to for my news he isn't struggling.

[Fullduplexxx]

20. You might as well come to grips with the fact that trump will win he will pardon himself then persecute allthe dems

Because america is a melting pot of ignorant slobs

[Freethinker65]

22. So we are doomed?

On the positive side, Trump is not over 50% in any of those polls. "God's" blasphemous gluttonous vindictive self serving adulterer and rapist hasn't cracked 50% in those swing states yet. The self anointed candidate, once again stoking fear of minorities and promising he alone would have prevented every bad thing that is happening in the world and has a secret magical plan to fix everything in the world that he will reveal at some nebulous future date, has yet to convince enough moderates/independents in swing states.

I really don't care about who in the next few weeks is ahead in the polls.

Who is ahead in September/October is more meaningful. What really matters is who is ahead after the actual votes are counted.

[TheBlackAdder]

51. All is lost.

[progressoid]

23. Lots of nay sayers on these polls.

Unfortunately, Morning Consult does a relatively good job.

[gab13by13]

24. You posted 7 states,

I propose a wager, 100 dollars per state for charity. I get the points that Trump is favored by and I will be nice, subtract 1 point which should give you the advantage.

PM me if you are interested?

[Quixote1818]

28. These ended January 22nd. Before a lot of bad things started happening with Trump like the Nancy / Haley gaff

Haley ripping into Trump, the end of the rape trial. Also, Morning Consultant polls are of registered voters and not likely voters. Biden does way better with likely voters.

[MyNameIsJonas]

35. Those are valid points.

Thank you for some added context.

[VMA131Marine]

32. It's the economy stupid!

I don’t care what the polls say this far out. If the economy keeps improving like it has been and there’s no recession (which now seems very likely), then it’s Biden’s race to lose. People don’t vote out incumbents when the economy is good.

Wasn’t Bob Dole leading Bill Clinton at this point in 1996?
Romney leading Obama in 2012?

[LeftInTX]

37. There wasn't a GOP nominee this time in 2012.

I think most polls were nation wide

It was Perry, Huntsman, Bachman, Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, Ron Paul.

No one really knew how it was gonna go. Most thought it would be Romney, but the tea party was unpredictable.

Ron Paul won Iowa
Romney won NH
Gingrich won SC
Santorum won 6 states.

[MyNameIsJonas]

38. I do think as the economy improves, so should his numbers.

At this point in 2012 and 1996, Obama and Clinton were leading in most polls.

[Quixote1818]

52. Obama was actually trailing Romney in the very last poll by 1 pt.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx

He was trailing Romney by 5pts a month before the election. Everything broke towards Obama the last month which is very common for an incumbent once people tune in and many don't until the last month.

[MyNameIsJonas]

70. Fortunately, we have a record of polls from 2012.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney

You can see that for most the campaign, Obama led Romney. It was generally narrow but he led.

Obama also led pretty much wire-to-wire in moat swing states.

Look at Michigan in 2012:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls

Starting with January 1st, 2012 all the way to election day, Romney led in all of six polls.

That's it.

Now look at Biden:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-biden

Since November, Biden has trailed in six polls. In just a two month's span, Biden has trailed in the same amount of polls that Obama trailed in over a span of about ten months.

Biden has led in just one poll.

Biden is absolutely weaker than Obama. Not only is he losing nationally, something Obama only marginally did throughout 2012, he's losing in the swing states on average. Obama never trailed in the average of polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin once 2012 began.

[Quixote1818]

72. Yes, I saw that after I posted the Gallup poll as I contunued to search around

It is interesting that Obama lead by less than a point and won by almost 4. So ether the polls were off by three or things just broke to the incumbant at the end which is probably what happened. That's common in history.

[MyNameIsJonas]

75. I think it was the reverse of 2016.

Polls broke late for Obama. Similarly, polls broke late against Hillary in 2016.

The one thing Biden has going for him right now is that Trump will be his likely opponent and he's a far weaker opponent than Romney was for Obama.

But as much as I love Joe, Obama was also a once-in-a-generation kind of candidate and a big reason he won in 2012 is that he really motivated the base and got them to the polls ... not necessarily out of fear but likability. Lots of people genuinely liked Obama.

[Mad_Machine76]

140. Joe seems likable

I wouldn’t hesitate to have him over as a houseguest for dinner.

[Polybius]

61. I often wonder how FDR won in 1936 in a mega landslide if it's the economy

Wasn't the recession/depression in full swing? Did Republicans not hammer it?

[Chakaconcarne]

33. These polls are just too much for me to handle... I'm going to leave the country.

[Omnipresent]

34. Bad news early is..

Good news now!
There is time and unforeseen circumstances, between now and November.

[MyNameIsJonas]

36. Agreed.

[retread]

39. Here's another poll of swing states.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/131734-poll-romney-surges-ahead-of-obama-in-the-dozen-swing-states/

[DemocratInPa]

50. Did Obama face the problems Biden is facing?

Two wars, one includes attacks on American bases in the Middle East

Crisis at the Souther Boarder

Cost of everyday things high
just to name a few

[Demsrule86]

74. Yes, I worked the campaign and Obama's numbers were terrible in the beginning...I actually

I cried when I saw the first batch of polls, yet it was over by 9:30 PM on election day. Biden recently won a write-in primary (not easy to do) and we have won every election since 2016...even in 22 the GOP did horribly. I believe we will win and all the bullshit here and elsewhere is just plain wrong. The idea that Roe and January 6th won't be important is foolish and wrong.

[MyNameIsJonas]

86. Obama's numbers have never been as bad as Biden's.

Not in disapproval.

Not in head-to-head nationally.

Not in the swing states.

Obama led in most polls throughout 2012 when it came to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Biden has trailed in most swing state polls.

The largest lead Romney ever had on average, from February, 2011 to election day, was 1.5.

In 2012, Romney only held an average head-to-head lead vs Obama for about a week.

Currently, Trump leads Biden by an average of 4 points. Trump leads in every swing state on average.

The last time Biden had the lead nationally on average? September 13.

Over four months ago.

[Demsrule86]

146. I worked for the Campaign and saw internal polls which are more reliable than the

so called polls referenced here. And they were dreadful. I will never forget how it made me feel...desperate! No offense intended but I saw internal polls...did you?

[Polybius]

63. Two key differences:

Among registered voters, Obama holds a slight 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

{mosads}The poll was conducted in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. There was no state-by-state breakdown of results.

[MyNameIsJonas]

85. The problem isn't one poll.

It's multiple. Go look at how many polls Obama trailed in those states.

Just look at Michigan as an example:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls

Biden in just the last two months has trailed in as many Michigan polls as Obama did from the start of 2012 to election day.

[wayanr]

41. Ignore at your own risk

He who frames the question wins the debate.
Randall Terry

Many people consider themselves victims and Trump is very good at tapping into that. Some became "victims" of foreign trade and lost their jobs. Some feel they are unable to practice their religion in the way they want to. Some feel overwhelmed by the number of immigrants crossing the border. Some have their comfortable world-view turned upside down by LGBTQ rights and medical care for trans people. Some hear that they are personally responsible for any transgression against any minority. For those who don't feel like a victim, Trump is good at convincing them they are, and that only he can save them.

[JohnSJ]

47. Are you a fan of Randall Terrys, that you feel inclined to quote him?

[Cosmocat]

73. YEP

His master skill is knowing and speaking to the lesser aspects of the human spirit.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

107. Very well stated.

[Cha]

125. Why are you Quoting Randall Terry?

Anti-abortion activist calls to punish women and abortion providers after leaked Roe v Wade decision

An anti-abortion activist celebrated a leaked draft opinon that revealed that the US Supreme Court will overturn Roe v Wade and Planned Parenthood v Casey, saying his ultimate plan was to punish every abortion provider, including women who seek abortions.

Randall Terry, who leads Operation Rescue, is one of the most prominent anti-abortion activists in the United States. On the night that the draft opinion--initially leaked by Politico--showed at the Supreme Court building up with a group of anti-abortion protesters with a ukulele talking about dancing on the grave of Roe v Wade, the landmark decision that enshrined the right to an abortion.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/randall-terry-roe-punish-women-b2070240.htmlproviders after leaked Roe v Wade decision

[AZSkiffyGeek]

129. I'd like to think people don't know the name

At least I hope so…

[Cha]

131. If you're going to quote him I would think

they know who he is.. So prominent.

And, that's why I asked the posted.. hoping to get an answer.

[wayanr]

150. Perhaps I should have researched a different quote

I don't remember where I found that quote attributed to Randall Terry. I believe in those particular words regardless of who says them. My purpose in including his name was to acknowledge the words were not mine but first said by someone else. Any suggestions for alternate wording that would be more acceptable to this group?

[DemocratInPa]

49. The Polls may be lying, but...

I still fear turnout is going to be bad in November.

I just don't see as many people turning out as did in 2020. I have 2 Gen Z, including one that phone banked for Biden and as of now neither are voting. I think one will, but the other is upset over Biden's stance on Palestine.

The bottom line as much as we hate Trump, Biden just isn't as popular as we here think he is, especially among Independents and I am thinking his favoritism among the young may be slipping.

I think Biden will win, but I think it's going to a complete dog fight. I tho, am not as confident as I was in 2020.

[progressoid]

58. Yep. And if Trump is out and Haley is the nominee, I fear even worse results from the independents.

She does well with people who don't favor Trump or Biden. Often those people make or break an election.

[Poiuyt]

89. I agree - I would much rather face Trump than Haley

though I would absolutely dread having Trump as president again.

[Demsrule86]

156. The elections siince 16 show that isn't true...including the seat we took in Florida recently.

Doom and gloom...seriously unhelpful. Biden is our candidate period. And incumbents have a big advantage even without Trump...also known as the Roe killer and soon-to-be felon.

[gab13by13]

53. Waiting on anyone who believes in this poll

to take me up on my wager for charity.

7 states - 100 dollars per state.
I will take the points that this poll shows and deduct 1 point to give any poll believer the advantage. I am taking President Biden of course.

Poll believers PM me.

[JohnSJ]

57. This poll is hardly straight forward at all. If you look at the supplemental questions, the

answers have a lot of contradictions in the responses.

Also, the statistical data at the end noted that those comprised of this poll:

43% voted for trump in 2016, 33% voted for Hillary in 2016, and 5% voted for someone else.

That indicates to me that the poll is weighted in favor of those who voted for trump in 2016.

There are also a lot of complicated supplementary questions in this poll, that give contradictory responses, especially with questions on abortion, guns, and social security.

[Polybius]

66. +1

I think NC is the only one I'd say is almost definitely going for Trump, with GA as a probably. The rest nope.

[ripcord]

55. I noticed people shout out the results of polls that they agree with

But then downplay those they don't, it seems a bit irrational.

[Kingofalldems]

56. Really? Examples please.

[Polybius]

68. Here ya go:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218638536

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218589275

[Kingofalldems]

69. I see no downplay of other polls there.

[kcr]

88. What is irraltional

is believing that polls this early mean anything.

[Demsrule86]

60. Back with more huh?

Sounds like BS to me.

[SoFlaBro]

119. Looks like endless concern trolling to me.

[Demsrule86]

143. It sure does.

[Ponietz]

79. Dewey defeats Truman

[Charging Triceratops]

80. Polls are propaganda, that's all!

[BannonsLiver]

81. Some definitely are engineered for that purpose

Last edited Wed Jan 31, 2024, 04:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Usually those being conducted for a candidate or state party, for example.

But I think a better question to contemplate is just how relevant polls and polling are in our current world. I’m not sure myself.

[maptap22]

82. Online polls

Are garbage.

[JohnSJ]

84. This poll is influenced by the primaries, which is essentially republican, since Biden

effectively has no challengers.

Biden and the Democrats have a record amount of money for the campaign.

The RNC is essentially broke, and the republican PACs right now are paying for trump's legal expenses.

This same poll indicates that if trump is convicted, 50% of the trump supporters in the poll will not vote for him.

In other words, there are too many variables, and I do not believe we will have a clear picture of things until after the Democratic Convention.

[honest.abe]

90. Way too early to make any kind of judgements based on polling.

BTW.. Biden is not in trouble. If anything Trump is in trouble. He is going to be drowning in court cases in the next several months.

[gab13by13]

91. I don't do polls, I believe in legitimate exit polling.

I saw one poll that I can believe in, A convicted Trump loses to Biden by 6 points.

[liberalmediaaddict]

93. America is sleepwalking towards fascism

People better wake up before November.

And Biden supporters like myself need to do everything we can to GOTV and remind people what the Trump presidency was really like.

There seems to be collective amnesia about the events of 2020 and January 6th, 2021.

[mcar]

94. Another poll last week showed Biden comfortably ahead

in PA. Polls, especially at this stage, are useless.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

95. My name is Brian and I see what you're doing

[BannonsLiver]

96. I love 80s music

?si=Hz6rQ3X4DM3vYQ4Y

Down to the last drop! Good stuff.

[Abolishinist]

98. Good bass playing, and the lyrics are pretty good as well!

So does this mean there is now only one more to go?

[BannonsLiver]

99. On my countdown?

No, still working my way through Zenyata Mandata

[DemocratSinceBirth]

124. I don't want to run afoul of DU rules.

But as a general rule it's surprising how some posters can fall for obvious bait.

[Kingofalldems]

132. This is the type of thing I mentioned on the DU survey I got.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

139. Our friend is no longer with us.

[Kaleva]

100. OP can't respond in this thread anymore

[Laura PourMeADrink]

103. What do you mean K ?

[Kaleva]

104. Looks like OP had a post hidden in this thread

When that happens, they are blocked from making anymore posts in the thread

Just saying this in case some wonder why OP doesn't respond

[honest.abe]

115. Lovely! A bit weary of his "Biden is in trouble" posts.

[SoFlaBro]

120. Seems like a regular occurance from certain posters.

[RandomNumbers]

108. Profile says FFR'd.

Is that as permanent as it used to be?

[Kaleva]

111. He wasn't a little over an hour ago

But he is now. And I do believe FFRd is pretty much permanent.

[emulatorloo]

128. They hit 5 posts hidden, so bye bye I guess.

They were just a little too obvious and gleeful.

And RELENTLESS.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

102. Recommended for sheer bravery

[honest.abe]

142. I think it was kamikaze.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

149. Ya...hide!

[rso]

105. Polls

First of all, actual election results are far better indicators than polls, and democrats have been winning almost every competitive election since Donnie won in 2016. Also, today’s Quinnipiac poll has Biden up by 6, so polls are all over the place.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

[spooky3]

106. Morning Consult is a right leaning polling outfit. Nt

[NoRethugFriends]

110. Missed this one, eh?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4440504-2024-election-biden-leads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

[Blue Owl]

112. Oh, right....

[WarGamer]

113. This poll fails to reinforce my preconceived biases, thus it is bullshit and shall be ignored.

But seriously though, its still early and Trump has probably peaked. Summer polls will look different.

[Kingofalldems]

133. OP is gone.

Too bad.

[WarGamer]

136. huh?

[Kingofalldems]

137. FFR'ed

[honest.abe]

117. Jonas has been FFR'd!

[SoFlaBro]

121. About time.....

[sheshe2]

123. Ooops!

[shrike3]

138. At last.

I'm surprised he lasted as long as he did.

[vercetti2021]

144. About time

I knew the person was a sleeper cell, guess their daily dose of Biden is in trouble/struggling/doomed finally caught their ass

[shrike3]

152. As did I.

[samsingh]

127. while i don't ignore polls i find it suspicious

that President Biden is behind Traitor crook crybaby Trump in so many swing States. Not believable.

[muriel_volestrangler]

134. Polls were taken before the jury rape verdict

In the national poll taken mostly after that, Trump lost ground among women from the month before. His crimes are starting to take their toll (I know the thread starter is no longer here, but the point seems worth making).

[vercetti2021]

148. I'm surprised it took this long for Jonas to get FFR'd

The person was always posting negative shit about Biden in trouble here and he's struggling there. It was a constant theme with this poster and I'm shocked it took this long for people to figure out he was a sleeper cell.

[JohnSJ]

151. I suspect you weren't the only who noticed that proclivity.

[shrike3]

153. He definitely was not the only one.

[shrike3]

154. Before I put him on ignore, I told him: "The next time your minders give you an assignment,

brush up on your pretending-to-be a Democrat skills."

It was so obvious.

[lees1975]

155. I have zero confidence in any poll showing Trump in the lead.

Zero. Those are all bought and paid for.