Why Ted Cruz is bulletproof in 2024

[brooklynite]

The Hill

What a difference six years makes.

A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll released on Feb. 1 shows that Cruz enjoys a robust nine-point advantage in vote intention over the presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Colin Allred, 49 to 40 percent. He enjoys a 10-point advantage over the other viable Democratic Party nominee, Texas State Senator Roland Gutierrez.

How could this be? First, Democrats have President Biden dragging down the entire Texas Democratic ticket. Three out of five Texans has an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and the Biden administration’s specific policy positions on immigration/border security, oil and natural gas, and culture war issues such as DEI and transgender athletes are at odds with those of most Texans. For example, 62 percent of likely voters support, and 33 percent oppose, Abbott’s efforts to secure the Texas border with Mexico, an effort that is sharply criticized by the Biden administration.

Second, neither of the two viable Democratic U.S. Senate candidates (Allred and Gutierrez) appear able to recreate the “Beto magic” of 2018 to allow them to be everything to everyone. In fact, even O’Rourke himself would be unable to recreate that magic if he had opted to be the Democratic nominee this year.

Third, the Cruz campaign (and Texas Republicans more generally), once bitten and twice shy, learned from their near-death experience in 2018. As a result, from now through November, Cruz will monitor his support and that of his Democratic rivals and react accordingly with fundraising and advertising to blunt Democratic momentum before it has time to consolidate, as occurred in 2018 for O’Rourke.

I never saw Beto as the White Knight candidate many others did, and there's no data today pointing to an ability to improve on his 200,000 vote loss. Our focus has to be on holding Ohio and Montana, not getting worked up about defeating Republican we love to hate.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. That's as bedrock as it gets

Abbott has created a cult of his own around Texas Republicans. Those moving to the state can't even make a dent. Cruz could vacation in Cancun with a 20 year old rock star and it wouldn't move the needle.

[DestinyIsles]

2. Democrats have not won statewide in Texas since 1989

to say this is about one issue or one Canidate is very naive if you look at the history of this state. We were never going to win the senate race in 2024 and I doubt that is going to change.

[gab13by13]

3. The Hill posts right wing talking points,

I will never click on it.

So we should just give up on Texas because of an article from The Hill?

SMFH. How about we concentrate on New York where we lost numerous House seats in districts that Biden won?

[brooklynite]

6. We in New York are concentrating on the House seats...

I also model every competitive race in the country, from Senate down to State Legislature to inform my choices as to where my support should go. And one of the lessons I convey to others is: a dollar you give to a well-meaning but hopeless candidate is a dollar you can't give to a candidate who actually has a chance of winning

I assume, based on your principles, you'll be supporting our candidates in Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming?.

[gab13by13]

8. I like Alred, he is a good candidate.

If you had a better source than John Solomon's The Hill, I will take a look. I do not click on The Hill for news.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

4. I reckon Texans vote for SCUMBAGS like Cancun Cruz

Because they fear Democrats would actually WORK for them, rather than just show up to say they do.

Or run away when the shit hits the fan.

[Goodheart]

5. My biggest take from that report?

How fast time flies. How quickly my life is passing.

It seems like only yesterday that I stayed up watching that Texas Senate race when Beto almost won.

[DFW]

7. 9 months until November, so..........

May you be as accurate with this as you were with Dean Phillips winning New Hampshire

It ain't over til it's over.

[gab13by13]

9. Why do people source The Hill?

John Solomon used to be a big wig there and today Jonathan Turley writes articles for them.

I see a lot of headlines on my home page and I just SMH at them and never click on them, I don't care to be mis-informed.