Heads up. Senate danger in blue, blue Maryland. Larry Hogan is running for Senate and he can win

[Stinky The Clown]

He just announced he is running in the Republican primary for the open Maryland Senate seat.

He polled high as the governor for two terms. This is going to be a hard win for Democrats, if they can even pull it off. In my view he is the front runner for the GOP primary *and* for the general.

[Orangepeel]

1. absolutely he's a threat. But he won in non-presidential years

With high turnout, the democrat should win. But we can't take anything for granted!

[2naSalit]

2. Who is the Dem running?

[Orangepeel]

5. There are two main contenders

Congressman David Trone who has a lot of money and is advertising heavily and Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks who probably has more endorsements (although Trone also has a lot).

[2naSalit]

6. Interesting, thanks.

I have heard these names but I hadn't placed them yet.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. Trone has Hakeem Jeffries, among others.

Trone has been spending a TON of money on TV ads already. Alsobrooks has only sent a few text messages

[spooky3]

14. Yes, we've seen these in NoVA also. Seems very good on issues

Teachers’ unions are backing him.

[Orangepeel]

29. Yes, he has some good endorsements and really good ads. She has Gov. Moore and Senator Van Holland

With Hogan in the race, Trone's big bank account might be really important

[WarGamer]

16. Angela should THANK YOU...

Not knowing who these two were, I went to their websites... both pretty good but the dude is already rich.

So I kicked Alsobrooks $50. She's EXTREMELY impressive.

A++

[Orangepeel]

30. Good

I like them both

[Cha]

18. TY!

[spooky3]

12. Primary hasn't been held yet. Rep, David Trone is running and

Has a ton of personal money (from his business, Total Wine) and has been advertising heavily. There is a popular councilwoman also running.

[Elessar Zappa]

3. Damn, that's sad that we don't have a guaranteed win in a state like Maryland.

Who’s his Dem opponent at this time? I’d like to send some money.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Answers directly above

^^^^^

[kelly1mm]

4. Still totally (and likely) winable but will cause $$$ to be spent here rather than in true

battleground or red states. I would give him a 20% chance of winning and would be to the left of Romney/Collins if elected. Still a Republican, but no Ted Cruz .......

[elleng]

13. and he'll have to spend a lot of time 'wrestling' with magats,

NOT something I want my Senator to have to do.

[Bleacher Creature]

7. He's not the favorite.

Marylanders are smart enough to recognize the difference between a moderate Republican as governor and a moderate Republican as a vote in favor of Mitch McConnell (or someone worse) as Senate majority leader.

Don't get me wrong, this race just got a LOT harder but it's still ours to lose so long as we don't screw it up.

[elleng]

11. a LOT harder

[kimbutgar]

9. Just remind women and LGBTQ people that if the repuke take the senate they will lose their reproductive right

Start with the ads now DNC and remind the voters repukes don’t care about them and want to take the country back to the 1900’s. A repuke is a repuke even a moderate one! And they are not to be trusted!

[Stinky The Clown]

24. Its not about any one "moderate" GOPer, it is about a GOP majority vs a DEM majority

[spooky3]

15. The good news is, he won't be a NoLabels prez candidate nt

[elleng]

33. Right, might be RATIONAL

and then have to wrestle with all the nuts.

[Arazi]

17. What are his positions on abortion and trans rights?

I think Rs are vulnerable there and Dems need to hammer the message about loss of rights and equality with the GOP

[Cha]

21. Good Question!

[TheKentuckian]

19. But...but...he did a credible job, is moderate, and whatever

STOP VOTING FOR REPUBLICANS EVER!!!

[Stinky The Clown]

20. The Dems

Angela Alsobrooks is Prince Georges County Exec. (she replaced sitting Congressman Glen Ivey)
https://www.angelaalsobrooks.com



David Trone is a sitting congressman and rich. Spending a ton already on TV ads. Has good endorsements
https://davidtrone.com



We currently favor Alsobrooks but with Hogan in the race it is about WINNING not principle. Either Dem is really okay.

[Cha]

22. Thanks for that... may the Best Dem

For Winning the Senate Seat Win the Primary.

[mikewv]

23. Hogan is a "Rino"

as Trump and trump republicans have labeled him. Yes, he is a popular X-Maryland Governor but he is not going to be popular with Trumpers. In a Presidential election year, I would guess that either Democrat candidate would win. Although, a smaller margin of victory. Which does not matter. The good thing is he will not run as a 3rd pary candidate for President. As mentioned before.

[Silent3]

25. If he doesn't caucus with Dems, he's useless to us

Even if he were less conservative than Manchin he's useless to us if he doesn't caucus with Dems.

[mikewv]

27. My point was, that he is not going to win

Maryland will stay blue. No need to worry

[Polybius]

35. That's a bad outlook

While no confidence is horrible, over-confidence is even worse. Be very afraid

[Kingofalldems]

26. Trump is hated here.

Should be no problem.

[WarGamer]

31. Yeah, Hogan has never run in a Presidential cycle before...

He won in 14 and 18... midterms (in 18 he won by 12%)

If the Trump hatred gets people to the polls he should be toast.

[Polybius]

36. Hogan hates him too though

At minimum we will be forced to spend money there.

[EarlG]

28. This might be tougher for Hogan than expected

Possible reasons why:

1) Hogan burned his bridges with the MAGA base by turning on Trump. His Republican support in Maryland could be weak, which would mean he would have to win a larger share of the indie and Dem vote.

2) Hogan can’t get Trump’s help with the base by seeking an endorsement, because that would hurt him with indies that he needs to win over to stand a chance.

3) it wouldn’t be easy to tie Hogan to Trump, but it WOULD be easy to tie him to Republican control of the Senate, which Marylanders would not want. As a few people have pointed out, a governor is different than a Senator this respect. It’s why blue states like Massachusetts sometimes elect governors like Mitt Romney, but reliably vote for Democratic presidents and Senators like Elizabeth Warren.

Point 3 is where the rubber meets the road in a state like Maryland because no matter Hogan’s positions, you can still tie him to the worst the other side has to offer and hammer him with ads saying that a vote for Hogan would be a vote for a Mitch McConnell-controlled Senate and all that would bring (national abortion ban, etc.)

Hogan wouldn’t be a pushover, but I think he could be weaker than expected in a Senate race.

[WarGamer]

32. not to mention, Hogan's successful runs were in midterm years. 14 and 18.

[radius777]

34. Usually voters vote ideologically for federal office, however

it's still dangerous whenever there's a well-known/well-liked person running - that's how Manchin, Tester won in deep red states.

In Maine in 2020 Susan Collins should've lost in a state Biden carried by 9 points - yet still easily defeated Sara Gideon by 8 points.