Is Nate Silver Right Or Wrong Here?

[Tom of Temecula]

Link to tweet

[FBaggins]

1. Yep!

We'll find out which in November

[Haggard Celine]

2. There is a coordinated effort to bring Biden down.

[Demsrule86]

5. That is a bunch of bullshit. Nate Silver is sadly a Republican...and as for Biden's popularity...

kind of odd he has double Trump's numbers in the primary and his party has won every special election since 2016...recently flipped a seat in Florida. Fuck Nate Silver. Take my advice and delete this thread.

[BOSSHOG]

7. I second your emotion Demsrule86

[Haggard Celine]

9. Who are you replying to?

I can't delete the thread. I didn't start it.

[Demsrule86]

11. It was a general comment not meant for you...sorry.

[Haggard Celine]

19. No problem.

[Cha]

33. I think the OP needs to see it, Dems.. TY

[Demsrule86]

50. So true Cha...How is it going?

I am not down at all about this election...I think we beat Trump and maybe win in places that will be surprising...Roe Roe Roe you vote, Biden's accomplishments, and the January 6 insurrection will bring Trump down IMHO.

[Cha]

55. I'm not down either.. I'm in Fighting MODE!

[Demsrule86]

63. Me too! I am well enough to make house visits...we try to keep in touch with the voters

in our area even after the elections...made some friends this way. I am excited about this election. I love elections and I hate Trump so it is going to be fun helping take the bastard down.

[Cha]

66. Oh I am so glad to

hear that Dems

You are Strong!

[gab13by13]

3. I ignore polls, including his.

[Demsrule86]

20. I thought he quit? Sounds like he was fired. He is a has-been trying to climb aboard the Trump train no doubt.

'What happened to FiveThirtyEight?
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/nate-silver-leaves-538-abc-news-disney-layoffs-1235401689/

[mahina]

24. Well that explains a lot!

Thanks!

[Demsrule86]

29. Thanks for reading it...I wish I could tell Silver to F off but I am banned at twitter.

Heart broken really not to be on Musk's shitty website

[mahina]

53. I'll go do it

[Demsrule86]

64. Thank you!

another heart!

[Bucky]

26. This is what everyone says before they fall: "Ignore the facts I don't like"

Just make sure you personally are doing something to move the needle. This year is smelling more and more like 2016

[doc03]

42. We have a lot of shoot the messenger mindset here when

we hear something we don't like. This isn't something that started after the SC report. Many Democrats have been
concerned about age for a long time. I am not talking about here on DU, some Democrats and independents have both
had those concerns.

[BOSSHOG]

4. I don't understand

“Without giving anyone a choice.” Choice to run? Elected democrats are keeping other elected democrats from running for president? Too late now. I’ll be on the Biden Bus til long after the election is over. I supported and defended for decades. I’m not in the mood to let my work go for naught.

[Silent Type]

23. I think the reference is to the tradition of not primarying an incumbent Prez,

especially in an election that some people think “age,” and particularly appearance of age, will be an issue. Fortunately, he’s running against a scumbag who has many more issues.

[W_HAMILTON]

38. It's not tradition -- it's brains.

It's not like almighty DNC managed to keep every Democrat off the ballot, save Dean fucking Phillips and Marianne fucking Williamson.

Anyone could have done what they did and challenged Biden.

The difference is that no one else was stupid enough to. No one wanted to essentially end their political career as a Democrat by doing so. And this isn't some mandate from high up -- look at how all of us turned on Dean Phillips (and rightfully so, I'd say). This is we, the voters, deciding.

[BootinUp]

6. Why should I care about Nate Silver's political opinions? nt

[TwilightZone]

8. "without giving anyone a choice"

Dean Phillips is running. He's getting demolished.

[Demsrule86]

10. I would send Nate a fuck you...but I am off twitter...you suck at polls now since you started

carrying water for Republicans.

[unblock]

12. Stats knowledge doesn't mean understanding of governance even if he applies it to politics

[Bucky]

13. He's on the money, Biden's age and approval ratings are things we're ignoring

And sadly saying "age" is the issue is a polite way of saying apparent feebleness. I'm sorry. I love Joe Biden. He was my first choice in 1988 and 2008. My God, yall youngsters should've seen him go to work on Robert Bork. He's mortal, however, and brilliant as he is, his failure to groom a successor for this year and pass the baton threatens to be a catastrophic mistake. I hope we get past this crisis, but I'm not confident we will.

[BootinUp]

17. When is there not a crisis for any Presidential candidates campaign.

People need to calm the f down and focus on the task at hand.

[Bucky]

22. I agree: calm down

The task at hand is going on the offensive and bringing light to Trump's massive problems. But don't lose sight of (or vainly ignore) our strategic vulnerabilities. That historically is how giants fall.

[Demsrule86]

48. Hey Bucky! How are you? Hope you are well.

It is nice to see you...been recuperating with heart crap so have not been around much...anyway a heart for you.

[BootinUp]

52. TY

[Demsrule86]

28. Rec'd!!!!

[BootinUp]

44. We are going to tear Trump to pieces

[Demsrule86]

65. Rec...yes we are!

He will be trashed in the end...Nothing could be worse for Trump than losing. I will enjoy his suffering so much.

[Demsrule86]

27. Biden has been a great president and is doing fine. Trump is what about 2 1/2 years younger.

Biden is the candidate so it is up to us to push back on this bullshit. Do you think whoever we picked wouldn't get the same treatment? Biden is a known quantity and an incumbent. He will win. He has always been underestimated. It is no different now. If he were as unpopular as the mostly shitty polls say...we wouldn't be winning elections.

[LeftInTX]

36. He would still be the nominee.

I wouldn't expect to give it up either. Of course, we need people for 2028.

[W_HAMILTON]

41. You didn't support him in 2020? Who did you support, pray tell?

[Silent Type]

49. Kind of where I am. I get why Biden had press conference, but don't think it helped him.

Hugging Taylor Swift at Super Bowl would have been a boost.

[brush]

56. We'll see. People have been underestimating Biden for years. And trump is no spring chicken.

And are you actually buy the bs from Hur's report about Biden's"apparent feebleness when trump is babbling incoherently at his rallies regularly?"

[Silent3]

14. You do when running an untested candidate against your own sitting President...

...would be an even worse play.

Biden doesn't have the kind of ego that would prevent him from stepping aside if that would be the best way to defeat Trump.

[Demsrule86]

31. Carter might have won if Kennedy didn't run. You don't run someone against an incumbent unless you

want to lose...same was true when Johnson didn't run...we got f'ing Nixon.

[JohnSJ]

39. Actually Carter lost because of the Iran hostage crisis, the unions

voted against him becof airline deregulation, and Reagan’s people urging Iran not to release the hostages until after the election

[Demsrule86]

47. Kennedy did Carter some serious damage.

I disagree. Kennedy did some serious damage to Carter. And the Democrat Congress totally screwed him over. A friend of mine worked for Kennedy in his later years in the Senate. He told her his only regret was not getting healthcare when Carter was in office. Carter was an outsider you know...one of the first Governors to run...at least recently.

[JohnSJ]

60. No doubt about it, but the Iran Hostage crisis was a huge deal, and labor voting for

Reagan also

[dchill]

15. "...Right Or Wrong Here?"

Let's take a poll!

[Demsrule86]

37. Our poll would probably be more accurate than the crap that is being spewed at the moment

with their low sample numbers and aggregate bullshit.

[Walleye]

16. Democrats should never listen to election advice from Republicans

Also a lot of Democrats should be ignored too

[tinrobot]

18. Pull a successful president with a proven track record? For who?

Who exactly does Nate suggest as a replacement?

(crickets)

[mahina]

21. So very wrong.

[Johonny]

25. Hey it worked pushing Johnson out

And Nixon got crushed by the new guy, right? Right?

[LeftInTX]

40. Exactly. We got stuck with an old guy anyway.

Humphrey never won a primary. He was a backroom deal.

[Cha]

30. Fuck OFF, nate.. does that answer you question?

And, that's really Anti Democrattic Bullshit posted on DU.

[W_HAMILTON]

32. He's wrong -- and wrong in such a way, I think much less of him now.

We are currently going through primaries and people are getting a chance to vote.

If his complaint is that no viable Democrats challenged Joe Biden, well no shit. Look at how we all turned on Dean Phillips for doing so. The same would have been done to any other candidate that tried to pull a stunt like he did. And that is not the dastardly DNC pulling the levers, that is not men in smoke-filled rooms deciding this -- it is we, the voters. We are the ones that are lashing out against those that challenged Biden.

For all the talk about how unpopular Biden is, if no Democrat can challenge him because we, the voters, would turn on them, maybe the original question of whether Biden is really that unpopular should be rethought. Just because some voters may have reservations about Biden doesn't mean they think anyone stupid enough to challenge him is some perfect candidate that everyone is clamoring for. Much the opposite, really.

[Cha]

43. Rec.. yeah, Nate's Gaslighting. MW Dropped out and DP got less votes

than she did in SC was it?

[bigtree]

34. Nate Silver is a troll

...using a troll argument for clicks, or something more politically devious.

[Cha]

45. Exactly.. TY. Like I said.. Nate is Gaslighting.

[Demsrule86]

46. Excellent analysis...I agree with everything! Hearts for you.

Welcome to DU and I am not being snarky!

[chowder66]

51. I'm voting for Biden AND Harris.

Everyone is mortal.

[Freethinker65]

54. Nominating an elderly adulterous self serving multi-bankruptcy declaring loser to the current President is being serious

[Joinfortmill]

57. Ugh

[Clash City Rocker]

58. So the best way to bring downTrump is for Democrats to attack each other

While even Trump’s “opponents” are afraid to say anything against him?

And he stresses Biden’s age without mentioning his many accomplishments, or Trump’s age, or his many crimes?

“Wrong” isn’t a strong enough word.

[Ferrets are Cool]

59. Is this NOT an unabashed bash of President Biden?

Or am I missing something. If it is, why is it still HERE???

[Sympthsical]

61. I see

[czarjak]

62. Pick your poison?

Sounds like an odd excuse. Never pick the fast fast-acting poison if that's the case.

[Tom of Temecula]

67. This post had been pulled by a DU Jury

I thought that was a bit draconian, and appealed their decision. I received the following this morning:

Your appeal has been approved

Dear Tom of Temecula,

You recently had a post removed because a DU Jury determined by majority vote that it broke the following rule: Don't peddle right-wing talking points, smears, or sources.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218672038

The Administrators have reviewed your appeal and determined that the post did not break the rule. Your post has been reinstated.

Regards,

The DU Administrators

Thank you. Nate Silver's opinion might be unpopular with some, but that is hardly a valid reason for suppressing it.

[SYFROYH]

68. I can't think of anyone else better situated to win the Presidential election.

I have issues with Joe, but he has done good things as President and knows how to defeat Trump. I appreciate his wisdom of politics.

[SYFROYH]

69. I can't think of anyone else better situated to win the Presidential election.

I have issues with Joe, but he has done good things as President and knows how to defeat Trump. I appreciate his wisdom of politics.

[muriel_volestrangler]

70. If we take him seriously, then he's wrong

There is no "Johnny Unbeatable" (as the Lawyers, Guns and Money blog is putting it) waiting in the Democratic wings to sweep to victory. If we look for a poll that looked at Trump vs. other feasible Democrats, we find the didn't do any better:

Trump (50-46%) and DeSantis (50-45%) have statistically insignificant 4 and 5-point advantages over Biden.
...
Trump’s advantage is within the survey’s margin of sampling error in hypothetical ballots against Kamala Harris (Trump +5 points), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+4), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (+2), and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (+1).

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-support-trump-hits-62-gop-primary

(Yeah, a Fox News poll, from November 2023, but anyone can go ahead and find another that compares matchups. And I don't think for a moment that Manchin would survive publicity - he really is an asshole, in all sorts of ways, and it would show.

So, no, renominating Pres. Biden is quite reasonable; given his great record as president (eg negotiating the IRA), it's wise. Biden gets the moderate vote (including, sadly, people who think the presidency really ought to belong to white men); Harris as VP is as good a backup as you can get. To question a "commitment to democracy" just shows Silver has lost it. Parties usually renominate successful first term presidents basically unopposed.