NY-3 Special Election today, and we have a blizzard.

[edhopper]

Up to 9 inches of snow in the district to replace Santos.
How ever this comes out it won't mean anything in terms of who people support overall. It will only show which people were able to come out and vote. The variables will be everything from owning cars to having kids at home because schools are closed.
My gut tells me we lose this one based on who will be able to vote.

[Historic NY]

1. They kept telling people and telling people.

[blm]

2. Mail in ballots will most likely determine the winner

[edhopper]

3. You may be right

It's just that with such a lower turn out, in an election that already was going to have a low turnout, anything can happen.

[NJCher]

15. Here's a pic of early voting in NY3

Looks like a lot of people voted early.

Pic at link of story about early voting in NY3.

[blm]

17. Good

[NJCher]

18. the sun is now shining

and I think most voters will get out in a bit--those who haven't already. MSNBC just did a report on Chris Jansing and they said the weather was really bad, but people were still showing up. A reporter told about a tree in the road and seeing 2 cars on the side of the road.

At the end, the reporter said the sun was starting to shine.

Both sides were tweeting out phone numbers where anyone who wanted to could get a free ride to the polls.

I just went out and shoveled and in my opinion, the storm is over. It's 39 degrees now, at least in Northern NJ.

[W_HAMILTON]

21. When do those have to be in by? Will we even know the results tonight?

[NJCher]

32. yes, watching on MSNBC now

I think we'll know tonight. I'm sure you know this by now, but just in case...

[WhiskeyGrinder]

4. "It will only show which people were able to come out and vote."

This is true of all elections.

[edhopper]

8. Not really

in most elections it is who decides to come out and vote. Today there is a large group of voters who will not be able to vote because of this snow storm. I hope you can see the difference.

[getagrip_already]

5. Plusses and minuses

We had a strong early voting push- good
Seniors are most likely to stay home - good for us
Queens less likely to be paralyzed than Nassau- good
Nassau dot likely to plow gop streets first - bad
Ny3 gop very organized - bad
Media still supporting gop - bad
Nassau far more important than queens - bad

Let's hope people having the day off and being pissed - good

[NJCher]

13. ny3 being very organized

was talked about on Brian Lehrer, WNYC. There's one guy there, a republican who works either for the party or the county or local government, who is very efficient. I tried to remember his name but couldn't.

The local infrastructure (like clearing the roads) operates on behalf of the republicans, it was said on this program. Also Suozzi told about how the freaking county workers go out and remove his signs in the early morning time of their job.

[getagrip_already]

16. Always been that way in nassau county....

The party and county govt operated as one.

The streets will be plowed preferentially based on voting maps. Blue streets won't get plowed very quickly. Red streets very fast and often.

Same for parking at voting sites. Blue precincts, good luck.

[karynnj]

6. Or it might mean early voting will have been crucial

It is hard to guess which party might be more impacted by snow for today's voting.

[NJCher]

7. Run that past me on the gut thing

You have a gut feel that more republicans can get out than democrats?

Or is it a gut feel based on motivation of the voter?

————————

Does anyone know why the election couldn’t have been postponed?

I agree with the remark upthread that early voting/mail in ballots will play an outsized role or even be decisive in this election.

Does anyone know if republicans were encouraging mail in ballots in this election? Seems like I read that.

[edhopper]

9. I don't know why they didn't postpone the election

if I read it somewhere I will post.
As for my gut. It is just thinking about who may actually vote. I have no way of knowing, and I hope I am wrong, it's is just a feeling, not a prediction.
Read reply #5, there are a lot of moving parts here.

[brooklynite]

22. Why would you postpone an election, absent a natural disaster?

[edhopper]

23. Well

they closed the schools because of the northeaster.
I don't know what the protocol is in NY.
Especially for this election which had an arbitrary date.
Have you seen anything in the news that discussed postponing or not?

[brooklynite]

24. It was never considered...

Absent a collapse of the power grid or an order to stay home, elections aren’t cancelled. Especially after a week of early voting.

And a forecast of 5-7 in isn’t considered a disaster.

[SocialDemocrat61]

25. Free wings day at TGI Fridays?

🤣

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Weather may not be a big issue after all. Latest Glen Cove prediction is 39F and 1-3 inches

[NJCher]

14. yes

1-3 inches is nothing much. Whew. Hope this holds.

on edit: to add it's 32 here in Northern NJ. Might be a day where a lot of this snow melts down.

Glad to hear the polls are busy (your other post).

[Stinky The Clown]

11. Live report on MSNBC from Farmingdale at 10am saying traffic at polls busier than expected.

[GuppyGal]

12. Even with the influx of minorities in these suburbs Nassau County is Republican Scum hotbed. nt

[Cha]

19. I read the snow has stopped

now.. Good Luck to Tom Suozzi!!

[FelineOverlord]

20. I hope Suozzi wins!

Of course they will have to run this again in November, but I'd love to get a Dem in right now.

Tom Suozzi
@Tom_Suozzi
The snow has stopped and the roads are being cleared. Polls are open until 9pm…still time to get out and vote!

Thanks to my friends from IUOE Local 30 for coming out and helping me GOTV!

#LetsFixThis

Link to tweet

Tom Suozzi
@Tom_Suozzi
Live from Massapequa…the snow is melting and the roads are clearing. Good for voters…for snowmen, not-so-much.⛄️

Polls are open until 9pm!
Need a ride? Call [phone]

#LetsFixThis

Link to tweet

[Golden Raisin]

26. I'm across the river in Manhattan

and the snow here stopped around 1:00pm. The sun came out and the skies were blue. We only had 2 or 3 inches at most. I'm not saying the situation was identical in NY-3 (Queens and Nassau) but the storm was originally hyped as being 5-9 inches and we didn't even get anywhere close to that. I'm hoping people in NY-3 were able to get to the polls without too much difficulty.

[LiberalFighter]

27. They keep saying early voters tend to be Democratic.

Will have to see if it turns out that way.

I had always thought it was Republicans were the ones that early voted.

[edhopper]

28. To be realistic

Santos won by 10% so this is an uphill battle.

[marble falls]

29. Dang it, Ed ...

... is this a comment on Democrats all being unable or unwilling to go to the polls in bad weather???

All I've read today says that the polls were busy. Big turnout - Democrats win, small turnout - Republicans win.\



Data Reveals the Core of Democrats’ Success in Special Elections

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/upshot/special-elections-democrats-turnout-2024.html

It’s strictly about turnout among the highly engaged, not about winning over Republican-leaning voters, but still suggests a slight edge heading into November.



Over the last year, two different sets of data have yielded two very different theories of where Democrats stand heading into 2024.

On one hand, there’s polling. Survey after survey shows President Biden even or trailing against Donald J. Trump. Voters, especially young and nonwhite voters, appear extremely dissatisfied with the president. No matter how good the economy looks to economists, most voters still say it’s bad.

On the other hand, there’s election results. Almost every time polls bring Democrats down, there’s a special election result to bring them back up. Special elections occur outside regular election cycles to fill a vacated seat, and overall Democrats have outperformed Mr. Biden’s 2020 results by four percentage points in these elections since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, according to data compiled by Daily Kos.

The limitations of polling are well known, especially almost a year before an election. The limitations of relying on special elections, on the other hand, are not as well understood. Unlike polls, special election results are hard facts, which make them tempting to view as a clear read into the 2024 electorate.

-snip-

[edhopper]

30. No

I was just thinking out loud about how it will affect the election. I truly don't know who will not come out and who will.
It is a tough race that has gone GOP for a few years.

[marble falls]

31. I agree, Ed. We need to treat every election for every office as a five alrm fire.