The final polls gave Suozzi a narrow lead -- 3-4% -- over Pilip. But, the Democrat won by more than 8%.

[pnwmom]

Another reminder not to get discouraged by polls that appear to be bad news for Democrats. Pollsters aren't getting good samples of voters anymore, and their results are less predictive than ever.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-yorks-3rd-congressional-district-poll-suozzi-holds-slight-edge-over-pilip/

Voter Turnout Could be Deciding Factor in Tight Race

The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New York’s 3rd Congressional District finds 50% of likely voters plan to support Democrat Tom Suozzi, while 47% support Republican Mazi Pilip, and 3% are undecided ahead of the February 13 special election. When including the 3% of undecided voters, Suozzi’s support increases to 52%, and Pilip to 48%, within the poll’s +/- 3.5% margin of error.

[mucifer]

1. Still only 72% counted so we don't know the exact end count.

[pnwmom]

7. Kornacki predicts 8%, so I changed it to that. The point remains.

The polls were wrong.

[JohnSJ]

2. Obviously within the margin of error. (Sarcasm)

[dsc]

11. Actually it is

unless they had a very large sample. But it would be at the outer edge.

[Happy Hoosier]

13. Perhaps... but a trend seems to be emerging.

Democrats have been overperfroming. And so have "our" issues. I'm not suggesting there is some bias in polling, but I do think that the polling population models are missing a phenomenon.

[dsc]

16. We are over performing

but some of it is also impression. Polls where we do worse have been promoted more than ones in which we do well. So the polls is percieved to be worse for us than it actually is. But we are also doing better than expected in many cases. Given Biden's numbers we should be getting slaughtered in these kinds of races not performing better than usual. The Bucks county result is phenominal for us unless the candidate for the GOP was a child molester or something.

[Happy Hoosier]

17. I agree....

... and that is somewhat natural... we are more prone to being terrified by TSF than be comforted by positive polls. And I get that. I'm terrified of TSF. It's crazy that he is polling anywhere near Biden.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. They adjusted their sampling after 2016

And they’ve never adjusted it back.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

4. Nassau still being processed. Win should narrow when count reaches 100%

[gab13by13]

5. I looked it up because I did a post on polls,

The latest poll had Suozzi +1. There were other earlier polls all +4.

I wish the polls would do a Vegas style gambling game. Over/under - Give me the number and I will bet the over every damn time.

There are very few polls, if any, that ever miss over for the Democrat, they always miss under. OK that's an absolute statement.

[Demsrule86]

6. Also, consider if a president is in real trouble, you don't see results lik this...Fuck the Biden bullshit

polls.

[gab13by13]

8. YES,, and a heart for you

Seriously, I can't remember a poll that was wrong by overestimating the Democrats margin. They always miss under estimating.

[LowerManhattanite]

9. I grew up in the next district over...

(Gregory Meeks’ 5th) and my folks still live there.

Pilip had NO CHANCE. 👎🏾

Granted, once you cross the City Line into Hempstead, Long Island is a bastion of white flight and GOP-friendly goofiness, but too much of that 3rd District is in the denser populated Queens proper. And NO ONE there knew her. 🤷🏾‍♂️ Suozzi, his moderate fuzziness aside was well known on the island and in Queens.

[no_hypocrisy]

10. When the media repeatedly claimed that this race was virtually a "dead heat,"

it just didn't make sense to me. Suozzi had more experience; he knew the district well; and he knew the issues.

Again, I believe the media ignored the true polling numbers and made this race a 50/50 proposition in order to sell commercial time.

[former9thward]

12. The polls were accurate.

The polls were predicting about 4%. When the counting stopped it was at 8% and steadily decreasing. I think it will end at about 6%. That is very accurate considering the snowstorm which had a dampening effect on same day voting which tends R. The polls were good in this election -- much to the disappointment of some.

[pnwmom]

18. The weather affected our side, too, and the difference is still almost 8%, at 93% of the vote.

Since the remaining vote to be counted would be absentee, why should that favor Pilpa?

Polls ahead of the election showed Suozzi ahead of Pilip by 3 or 4 points, but he appeared likely to finish ahead of expectations as returns came in Tuesday night. Suozzi led Pilip by nearly 8 points with more than 93 percent of the vote counted, according to a Decision Desk HQ count late Tuesday

SNIP

Robert Zimmerman, the Democratic nominee who lost to Santos in 2022, received only 52 percent of the vote in the Queens portion of the district and 45 percent in Nassau. Suozzi stands at above 60 percent in Queens and a majority in Nassau as of the latest vote count.
Biden, while comfortably carrying the district in 2020, only won the Queens part of the district by 20 points, according to the nonpartisan elections analysis website Inside Elections, compared to Suozzi’s 24-point lead. .

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4466966-takeaways-tom-suozzi-george-santos-donald-trump-mazi-pilip-new-york/#:~:text=Polls%20ahead%20of%20the%20election,Desk%20HQ%20count%20late%20Tuesday.

[LiberalFighter]

14. I think pollsters are oversampling Republicans.

[ananda]

15. Yes. For awhile I've been adding points to every Dem leaning poll.

Polls are skewed to the right these days.