Before people overthink the polling discrepancy in NY-3.....

[brooklynite]

It's important to keep in mind that there was a significant development in the late days of the campaign that shifted votes to Suozzi. A major issue in the campaign was immigration and the border (nb: neither Pilip nor Suozzi ran heavily on reproductive rights). Pilip was running ads about the "border crisis", and Suzzi was running a defensive action on the issue. What changed things was Trump and Johnson spiking the border deal legislation in the last week which damaged Pilip's campaign, and allowed Suozzi to assert his (you may not like this) "reach across the aisle and work together" message.

The issue had all the makings of a political storm. Illegal border crossings reached an all-time high in December, and the arrival of more than 170,000 migrants in New York City has brought the sense of chaos close to home.

Rather than shrink from the issue, though, Mr. Suozzi made the migrant crisis a centerpiece of his campaign. He called for Mr. Biden to close the border and went on local news to call for the deportation of a group of migrant men charged with assaulting police officers in Times Square.

When his opponent, Mazi Pilip, condemned a bipartisan Senate deal that included stiff border security provisions that conservatives had demanded, Mr. Suozzi went on the attack, accusing her of putting partisanship over national security.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/nyregion/suozzi-democrats-win-santos.html

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Maybe

But then why did the most recent polling show a big shift to Pilip? The last poll taken over this past weekend showed the race had tightened. It was Suozzi +1. The polls showing a bigger Suozzi lead were from before the immigration deal was killed by Trump and Johnson.

[brooklynite]

2. The last poll (JL Partners) was by a pro-Republican firm.

The previous polls had Suozzi +4.

[BootinUp]

3. You would probably need exit poll data or to do more interviews to

nail down what happened. imho.

[Renew Deal]

4. I don't think it had a big impact either way

The only people talking about the border as a political issue of importance are existing republican voters. The rest of the world is on other things.

[brooklynite]

8. Strongly disagree...

The migrant crisis is a big issue in NYC and many of NY-3 voters commute to work in Manhattan.

[Renew Deal]

10. But does it sway votes?

I'm not saying it's not an issue. Just around the politics of the issue. I'm not convinced that independent voters are deciding over border issues.

[brooklynite]

14. What issue do you think is driving them?

Consider that NYS is not at risk for abortion bans.

[ColinC]

5. It isn't just going to affect the ny3 race. Dems will bludgeon the GOP with it from here till november

[karynnj]

6. Having a workable government, more than the particular issue, may be the true factor

That is very good for Biden because it is what he has always spoke of and which led to all the accomplishments in the first 2 years. It was Biden who pushed for the bipartisan deal and made real compromises to get it. It is also Biden who worked on the bipartisan foreign aid bill.

Contrast the Trump, "I will be a dictator for one day" ordered both of those bills killed. Could there be a bigger contrast?

Incidentally, last night the NYT take away article, obviously written before results, was as much a both sides article, that after speaking of the needed optimism for us, on the how it is good for Republicans, used the phrase, "exceedingly close". That was changed to just speak of the unpopularity of Biden. It also has one take away that the snow hurt the Republicans which is unprovoked especially as it seems that the Nassau results did not show that the election day voting was mostly Republican.

[Think. Again.]

7. It seems we're always...

...thinking about why this or that individual poll didn't line up with actual results, as though complicated excuses for all the specific poll failures somehow means that polls in general are fine.

But they aren't. More often than not, polls fail to give a good indication of what the results will be. And that's the bottom line.

[brooklynite]

12. President Biden and Congressman-elect Suozzi disagree with you...

Both campaigns have internal polling operations.

Consider that the public audience fixates on the top line vote percentages. There's a lot of useful data in the polling internals about demographics, issue concerns, etc.

[Think. Again.]

15. As you might know...

...internal polls and public clickbait polls are 2 different things.

Since we here in the public are only privy to to public clickbait polls, those are obviously what we are discussing and reacting to.

[brooklynite]

16. Siena College and Emerson College don't do "clickbait"...

and none of the NY-3 polling was done by the "corporate media"

[Think. Again.]

18. Well then...

...maybe even non-clickbait polls should be ignored if they're gonna always be wrong.

[brooklynite]

20. Polls aren't wrong if they're not exact.

They're an order of magnitude analysis of voter intent at the time of polling. That intent can change. The House decision to spike the immigration bill, supported by Pilip, changed the dynamics of the race.

[BannonsLiver]

21. Uh huh

[brooklynite]

22. If conspiracy theories give you comfort.....

[BannonsLiver]

23. Is pointing out someone was just plain WRONG a conspiracy theory?

[NoRethugFriends]

9. You were still saying very close the day of the election

Please explain, given you apparently noticed that development.

[brooklynite]

11. I was basing my assessment on what Tom Suozzi last told me.

I was traveling last week and wasn't in the loop on how the campaign was playing out.

[getagrip_already]

13. Because polling sucks as a predictive tool

That's not how it's being used.

It's a media tool, used to draw eyeballs. It works very well for that.

Polls done by the campaign are more accurate, but are more expensive. They send people out knocking on doors and stand them at supermarkets and on sidewalks. They also rarely release their data.

[BannonsLiver]

17. Looks like it's CYA Wednesday.

“I’ve been told personally it will be VERY close.”

[Think. Again.]

19. with tears in his eyes?