Trump Holds Small Lead in North Carolina

[applegrove]

Trump Holds Small Lead in North Carolina

February 21, 2024 at 8:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard 114 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/02/21/trump-holds-small-lead-in-north-carolina/

"SNIP........

A new Emerson College/The Hill survey of North Carolina voters finds Donald Trump just ahead of Joe Biden in the presidential race, 47% to 44% with 10% still undecided.

With third-party candidates added to the ballot test, Trump’s lead grows to 46% to 37%, while 5% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively.

........SNIP"

[TexasDem69]

1. North Carolina isn't currently winnable for Biden

Don’t spend money there and don’t waste time thinking it is. It isn’t as unwinnable as Tennessee or West Virginia but is less blue than Georgia, which is probably out of reach as well

[brooklynite]

2. Disagree...

I'm overly cautious about winning back Red States, but we have a strong Governor's race and Two State Supreme Court races this year. and Trump's victory margin in 2020 was lower than any other State.

[SoFlaBro]

3. How do you figure that GA is out of reach? It went Biden last time and two Democratic Senators.

[TexasDem69]

6. It did, by the thinnest of margins.

But it’s got a historic red tint and the polling from Georgia all shows Trump winning handily. To win Georgia Biden would need outstanding turnout among Democrats and I’ve got no faith in that happening. I hope I’m wrong but I’d bet I’m not. We’ll know if about 9 months.

[SoFlaBro]

10. +6 with a MOE of 3 and 10% undecided doesn't mean he is winning handily. It means jack shit with those undecided #s.

[womanofthehills]

17. Georgia Polls

Georgia - not looking great but latest poll a little closer

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/georgia

[SoFlaBro]

26. The same polls that predicted Senator Walker from Georgia?

[All Mixed Up]

7. This poll says otherwise.

[TexasDem69]

9. This poll shows a best case scenario

Of Biden losing by 3%, twice what he lost by in 2020. He loses by 10% in a worst case scenario, which is similar to Trump’s margin of victory in states like Ohio. North Carolina is a pipe dream, but the larger point is that if Biden wins North Carolina he’s going to win reelection easily. So focus on states we really need, like Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.

[SoFlaBro]

11. What are you talking about? There are a large number of undecideds in this poll. Best case scenario is Biden +6

[TexasDem69]

18. If you think Biden carries NC by more than 10,000 votes

You’re delusional. President Obama—the greatest politician in my lifetime—defeated McCain by about 14,000 votes in NC in 2008, then lost to Romney by almost 100,000 votes in 2012. Hillary lost NC by about 150,000 votes in 2016, and Biden lost by about 70,000 votes in 2020 in a year when everyone hates Trump.

[SoFlaBro]

25. Not quite as your delusion thinking the polls are the final word on the snapshot of the race.

[John Farmer]

35. Trump is a uniquely bad candidate.

Worse than 2016 or 2020.

It's difficult to imagine that any undecideds will settle on Trump this time around.

[Celerity]

20. it's Trump with a 9 point lead when 3rd parties are tossed in

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/north-carolina-2024-poll-trump-47-biden-44/

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of North Carolina voters finds 47% support former President Donald Trump on a 2024 ballot test, while 44% support President Joe Biden. Ten percent are undecided. With third-party candidates added to the ballot test, Trump leads 46% to 37%, while 5% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Eleven percent are undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “A majority of voters under 30 break for President Biden over Trump, 53% to 35%, along with a plurality of voters in their 30s, 47% to 40%. Voters in their 40s are evenly split: 45% support each candidate. Voters over 50 support Trump over Biden, 52% to 40%. In addition, independent voters in North Carolina break for Trump over Biden, 43% to 40%.”



Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 41% in a hypothetical match-up, and California Governor Gavin Newsom 49% to 34%. Voters were asked if President Biden’s age raises doubts in their mind about voting for Biden, or if it is not a serious consideration for them: 58% say it raises doubts, 42% say it is not a serious consideration. Voters were also asked if former President Donald Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious doubts or if it is not a concern: 52% say it raises doubts, 49% say it is not a serious consideration for them. The economy is the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by healthcare (14%), education (12%), immigration (10%), housing affordability (8%), crime (7%), threats to democracy (6%), and abortion access (5%).

A plurality of voters (47%) think things in North Carolina are on the wrong track, while 32% think things are headed in the right direction. President Biden holds a 38% job approval in North Carolina, and 54% disapproval. Governor Roy Cooperholds a 44% job approval, while 37% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. In the gubernatorial Republican Primary, 30% support Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, while 7% support Bill Graham, and 7% support Dale Folwell. A majority of voters (57%) are undecided. In the Democratic Primary, a similar majority are undecided (53%), while 34% support Josh Stein, 5% Marcus Williams, 4% Chrelle Booker, 3% Gary Foxx, and 2% Michael Morgan.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill North Carolina survey was conducted February 14-16, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (NC S.O.S.).

[womanofthehills]

23. They might not be undecided but 3rd party

Independents -Kennedy, Stein & West

[All Mixed Up]

13. lol huh?

Where are you coming up with this stuff?

[TexasDem69]

19. What makes you think Biden has any chance of carrying NC?

Obama did once, Hillary didn’t, Biden didn’t, and the state isn’t trending blue.

[All Mixed Up]

22. Because the Biden campaign seems to think they have a chance...

And this might shock you, TexasDem69, but I trust their expectations over some rando on a message board.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/22/bidens-north-carolina-24-00107703

How many presidential campaigns have you won?

[TexasDem69]

36. Did you read that article that you posted?

It says nothing all about Biden committing to NC, but just includes a lot of “we hope” language from NC democrats. In any event, spend your money where it might matter, and NC isn’t that place in 2024

[All Mixed Up]

38. Did you?

Here, let me help you out:

The Biden campaign came out early in May with a strategy memo outlining its 2024 path to victory, including its plans to target the Tar Heel state. The DNC and campaign have already run ads in North Carolina this cycle, including on television and on two billboards in Charlotte and Rocky Mount highlighting Biden’s economic agenda. The campaign also tapped Cooper, who is legally barred from running for another term for governor, and Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, as members of the president’s national advisory board.

“I think the road to reelection will run through North Carolina this time. And we’re encouraged by the [Biden] campaign’s early commitment to our state,” said Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

But what the hell does Roy Cooper know, right? Better email him and remind him that you, TexasDem69, clearly understand the situation more than he does.

Good luck with that lmao

[TexasDem69]

39. You just proved my point

The campaign has a “memo” and Roy Cooper said there’s a chance. That’s all you need to know

[All Mixed Up]

40. You're so confused you don't even remember what your point is.

Poor thing.

You literally said there was nothing in the article about Biden committing. Let me quote you just because you seem to not remember what you put in your previous message:



From the article:



You have the current governor of North Carolina, who is also part of the national advisory board for his campaign, saying he's committed and in your reply upthread says the article says nothing about committing to NC.

That just isn't true. Committing is literally used by Roy Cooper. Just admit you got confused.

[TexasDem69]

41. If you think the Biden campaign is going to commit any money

To NC, or really thinks it might win NC then more power to you. Put your money where your mouth is. But you won’t, because you know NC is a pipe dream, as does Biden, which is why there are a bunch of platitudes about the state and nothing more. I grew up in NC, and as we say there, bless your heart.

[All Mixed Up]

42. Got it. So they're lying.

Nice to see you think so little of him.

Here's another article from last month that discusses Biden's effort in North Carolina:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-aims-north-carolina-2024-election-comes-into-focus-2024-01-18/

And an article on the state's campaign leadership:

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article284089378.html

But you seem to have it all figured out. That's some weird investment in a state they're not committed to like you incorrectly said.

They're all lying and you, some rando on the internet has all the answers.

lmao

You're done here. Hopefully in the future you won't just make shit up and then pretend you didn't say it.

[W_HAMILTON]

30. And polls showed Biden losing Georgia in 2020 -- your point?

[TexasDem69]

37. They did not

Many polls had Biden ahead or the race tied in 20202 in Georgia. I hope I’m wrong about NC in 2024–Trump will not win if he loses NC—but I’ve seen nothing in that state to suggest Biden has a chance.

[W_HAMILTON]

43. They absolutely did.

The average of the polls leading up to the election was Trump +1.0.

And if you go back to this time in 2020 -- so around February 2020 -- polls actually showed Trump +8.0.

The polls were wrong -- Biden won the state.

Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/georgia/trump-vs-biden

[ProudMNDemocrat]

34. It is still early yet..

With all that is coming out, and has yet to come out, there is hope that Joe can pull out slim victories in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. The issue of Abortion tied in with Women's Reproductive Rights, attacks on the LGBTQ+ community, Trump's overt corruption and ties to Putin, Democracy, etc., will drive voters out.

Yes, the mess in Israel is important. Perhaps there are level headed Palestinian-American voters who understand that Joe is NOT against the 2 state solution, but is doing his best to persuade Netanyahu to drop his plans to control all Palestinian lands. He has been working on that. He has concerns for the Palestinians there.

This is a complex election cycle indeed, but I am confident that Joe is the right man for the times we are living in.

[vercetti2021]

4. I'm gonna say

This will be the Biden spoiler state. It flips, its automatically over for Donny shit pants.

[dsc]

5. I was actually polled for this

and have to say that this is fairly close to what happened in 2020. Trump won by a bit under 1.5 points in 2020 here. 49.9 to 48.6. I think he has a shot here. We have many races on our ballot and the GOP is likely to have a governor candidate who is as divisive as Trump if not more so. We should get good Dem turnout.

[All Mixed Up]

8. Any chance of an abortion referendum making it on the ballot?

[moose65]

14. Nope

North Carolina doesn’t do citizen-initiated ballot initiatives.

[All Mixed Up]

24. Bummer. I think having that on the ballot would nearly guarantee the state for Biden.

[dsc]

28. No

Only the legislature can propose amendments in NC

[triron]

12. Must be a lot of dumb shits there.

[moose65]

15. Oh my gosh

Amazes me that supposed liberals can trash an entire state.What paradise do you live in?

[rockfordfile]

16. I'm sure there's just as many dumb shits in CA or any other state.

[Upthevibe]

31. rockfordfile...

As a Californian, I assure you that you are absolutely correct....Having said that, I do take into account the importance of differentiating between raw numbers and the per capita numbers.

[Upthevibe]

29. triron........

There are a lot of "dumb shits" everywhere!

IMHO, one of the main and shocking things we've learned over this past decade is how horrible and absolutely brainless some of our fellow citizens are. And they are in EVERY state. It was right here in my city of Los Angeles where pro-Nazi's were hanging flags off of the 405!

I was just speaking with a friend today about North Carolina and wondering if we had a chance there. I want to hear from folks who are there and who are truly knowledgeable about the ins and outs of the various states.

I was telling my friend that I'm not at all supportive of investing money, time, resources, and energy in states where we really don't have very much of a chance. I haven't given up on Georgia. I think we need to focus on the swing states. I realize other states might feel "left out" because they aren't getting attention but IMHO, it's how we win.

[moose65]

33. I don't know...... maybe!

All of our statewide elections are extremely close. We have a Democratic governor, attorney general, and Secretary of State, but we also have Republican troglodytes like Mark Robinson, our current Lt. Governor who had never been elected to office before 2020. He hopes to be our next governor, and if he wins, Goddess help us.

The NC Dem party has been very ineffective ever since the Republicans took over the state legislature in 2010 for the first time in 100 years. However, the new party chair is a young woman who was a great organizer in college, and they have been working on getting younger voters registered to vote. I am hoping that some of that youthful enthusiasm will help us.

Also, Jeff Jackson, who was just gerrymandered out of his House seat, is running for Attorney General and he is a great campaigner and all-around good guy. I am hoping that he may have some "reverse coattails" and actually help with turnout in ALL races this fall.

[Bad Thoughts]

21. NC is a campaign drain for Republicans

It might be too hard for Democrats to win, but they can force Republicans to spend more here than in other states. It's worth it to keep campaigning.

[NoMoreRepugs]

27. Sorry, but I call bullshit.

[Polybius]

32. In what way?

Do you think Trump is further ahead, or behind?