2024 She's the Difference: The Wildcard of the 2024 Election

[brooklynite]

AARP

She’s the Difference is AARP’s ongoing research series exploring the priorities and concerns of women age 50 and over — a critical voting demographic. Since 2019, AARP has worked with top-rated political pollsters from both sides of the aisle to conduct in-depth quantitative and qualitative research to explore — and explain — the mindset, attitudes, fears, and hopes of women voters ages 50 and up.

Women voters aged 50+ have serious worries about the future of our country, including economic concerns and fears about political division.
○ Seven-in-ten (70%) women 50+ think the country is on the wrong track, and only 27% believe America’s best days are ahead. Troublingly, nearly half (47%) think the best days are behind us.
○ When they are asked to choose the two biggest issues facing the country today, cost of living tops the list (38% say it is a top issue), followed by immigration (32%), threats to democracy (20%), and political division (16%).
○ Only 28% of women 50+ expect the economy to improve over the next year, while a plurality (42%) expect the economy to get worse.
○ Women 50+ are not convinced that the coming year will bring greater stability to our country, with only 19% saying they think things will become more stable, while 46% think they will become less so. Among those who believe the country will become less stable, when asked what factors are most strongly driving this instability, the top responses chosen were government dysfunction (63%), the economy (58%), political division and partisanship (55%), crime (55%), and the situation at the southern border (53%).

Women voters aged 50+ are deeply dissatisfied with our political leaders and believe their own voices aren’t being heard. They worry about the coming election and are closely divided between the two parties.
○ These voters are likely to say they are not being heard by leaders — 65% of women voters 50+ say they think local elected officials don’t listen to the views of people like them, and 75% feel that way about political leaders in Washington.
○ Over half of women voters aged 50+ disapprove of the job President Biden is doing (56%), though Biden very slightly edges out former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, earning 46% of the vote to Trump’s 43%. Biden does especially well among women 65+, winning this group over Trump by a 7-point margin; women aged 50-64 are particularly likely to say they are undecided (15%).
○ Women voters 50+ split right down the middle on the generic Congressional ballot question, 45-45. Here, there is little difference between women aged 50-64 (who break for Republicans by 2 points) and women aged 65+ (who break for Democrats by 1 point).
○ Women 65+ are especially likely to think the result of the 2024 presidential election will “really make a difference to them personally” (82%), compared to 69% of women aged 50-64.
○ When asked to choose from a list of different emotions they might be feeling about the upcoming 2024 election, a plurality say “worried”, with 48% of women 50+ saying this describes their feelings.

[H2O Man]

1. Recommended.

[All Mixed Up]

2. The overall head-to-head numbers are discouraging.

They aren't the best for Biden.

According to exit poll data done by Edison from 2020, Biden won women 45+ (not 50+ but a five-year difference isn't likely to yield a significant difference) by around 54-45.

So, that means Biden is doing eight-points worse than he did with this demographic in 2020 and Trump is only two-points worse. That is, however, a swing of ten-points.

With how narrow the election was in some states in 2020, Biden can't afford to lose ground with women voters.

Granted, there's a good amount of undecided voters here and I suspect they lean Biden, but he's got way more to win over to secure reelection than Trump likely does.

In 2016, an election Trump won, and likely his best path to winning in November, Trump lost the 45+ women vote to Hillary 49.5-46.5 - or very similar to what he's getting in this poll.

Regardless, if he's to replicate his 2016 victory, he'd only need to bump his vote total up by 3.5 points and Biden would likely need to outperform the 49.5 Hillary saw (so, breaking 50%), which means maybe scoring four-to-five points better than he is currently if he's going to win.

[WarGamer]

3. A significant portion of those women don't like the taste of dog food.

Let me explain.

Women are more likely than men to reach retirement age with significantly LESS work credit for Social Security.

Spend time raising kids? Less work credits.

Spend time caring for aging parents? Less work credits.

Spend time going back to school? Less work credits.

Self employed, lower income? Less work credits

Crap jobs all your life? Less work credits.

110% possible for a woman to hit 67 years old and receive a social security benefit of...

900/mo

That's not even dog food.

Biden actually campaigned on raising the base SS payment structure in 2019 but I haven't heard anything since.

If an American reaches 62 years old with sufficient quarters of employment... the BASE SS payment should be 1500$ as of today and COL set at inflation PLUS 1% annually.

[phylny]

4. Yeah. I'm 65 years old and I'm f'n pissed off

that women have fewer rights over their own bodies than when I was young and having sex and vulnerable. I’m going to Roe my vote and so are my peers. Older women.

[TexasBushwhacker]

5. Yup. I'm 67 and have to continue to work

I just don't have 35 decent paying years. I will work until I die.