Uncommitted got over 100k votes in Michigan

[DestinyIsles]

this is pretty big considering their goal was 10000, and they got 20000 in 2012. I wouldn't read too much into it since Biden got over 80% of the vote. However, if a large percentage stays home in November or vote third party Trump could win in Michigan. The Biden campaign has some work to do in Michigan.

[rso]

1. RSO

No biggie, almost 300k voted against Trump.

[True Dough]

2. A much higher number of Haley voters

say they will not vote for Trump.

Trump has a lot of work to do in Michigan. Joe will be fine.

[Kaleva]

5. I agree

[former9thward]

7. All the polls in Michigan have Trump ahead.

They have been very consistent. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-biden

[JohnSJ]

11. The point is those believing that Haley voters will vote for Biden

is an illusion. We are only fooling ourselves that will happen.

The republicans turned out by 300000 more than Democrats to vote in the primary, and that is a huge problem.

[former9thward]

15. No question.

Alot of people who live in Blue states and just hang with people like themselves seem to think Everyone I know is voting for Biden. That is fine but the election will be decided in five or six swing states, Michigan being one of them.

[Demsrule86]

27. I live in Ohio. And all the Trump crap has finally disappeared. My neighbor who except for

his Trump allegiance is a nice guy has removed every inch of his Trump paraphernalia. This has been there for more than four years. I have seen signs all around that Trump has lost and is losing supporters. The loss of Roe was such a big deal that we voted last year for a constitutional amendment and women still feel the same way. Trump is going to lose. Also, I would not be surprised if Republicans lost in areas that they take for granted.

[JohnSJ]

30. That is fine, but do they still support Vance? What I am saying

is while some may no longer be enamored by Trump, would they actually vote for Biden, and I have doubts about that.

[Demsrule86]

33. Yes, women will vote for Biden as will the men who love them...

Many will vote for Biden because of January 6th and his continued threats against Democracy. Even those Trump voters who stay home benefit us.

[JohnSJ]

35. I hope so. Ohio is a critical state

[Demsrule86]

39. We have not won in Ohio since Obama...but I am hopeful. However, I was speaking generally.

Ohio has a weak Democratic Party. Hopefully, we can change this.

[Demsrule86]

24. Some of them have said they won't vote for . Trump is going to lose the General.

He will lose Independents and women...and the idea his golden sneakers and racist rhetoric will help him with Black voters is just ridiculous.

[True Dough]

16. I think you misunderstood my post

I didn't claim that Haley came out ahead. I'm saying that a large percentage of her voters are anti-Trump and when it comes to the general election, they will either refuse to vote for TSF or will simply stay home and not venture out to the polls.

[former9thward]

17. Yes, but I don't think I share that view.

A lot of Republicans voted against Trump in the 2016 primaries and there were many Never Trumpers among the party leaders (Jeb Bush, etc.). But in the general election the Rs were pretty united in who they voted for.

[True Dough]

20. The passage of time is a key factor

We're talking eight years later when Trump is facing 91 indictments and has made numerous public statements that are beyond abhorrent.

Yes, his hard-core supporters will stick with him no matter what. But a significant portion of Republicans have bailed out, finally seeing the truly reprehensible nature of that creep.

[Demsrule86]

32. This is not 2016 when Trump was an unknown before he attempted to over throw the

government and destroyed Roe.

[JI7]

3. We need to try to get those that voted Haley

I would be interested in seeing the demographics of those that voted for her. I would guess most are women .

[JohnSJ]

8. If that actually happened, Michigan would be ours, but the fact

is Haley is a hard right conservative, and while they may not vote for Trump it is far from certain they would vote for Biden. They most likely wouldn’t vote if they didn’t vote for trump

[Demsrule86]

29. Less Republican voter is also going to help us.

[JohnSJ]

4. Just the fact that 300000 more republicans voters turned out is not

a good sign for us. I don’t buy the argument that the Democratic primary was known Biden would win, and that is why Democratic turnout was less than republican turnout. The same thing can be argued about republican turnout because it was clear trump would be the nominee.

I am pretty sure most of those republican votes in Michigan, other than uncommitted, will go for Trump. The same cannot be said for the uncommitted Democratic voters.

I think we have a major problem in Michigan, and there is not much Biden can do about it.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. We Don't Agree On That

I read your OP on this, but got distracted so I'm responding here.
The R primary was a contest between 2 actual candidates. Two real people.
The D primary was between a person & an abstraction.
Rs against TFG were motivated to actually cast a vote against him. D voters who wanted Biden knew it was a done deal, and voting against an abstraction is not a motivator. The most motivated people on the D side were the whiners that think Biden has a magic wand he's not using.
The fact that a concerted campaign to get "uncommitted" attention got only 1 in 7 votes is not a real concern.

[Sympthsical]

12. Concur with this, rec

Edit: And to add another point. This is a lot of people to turn out for an uncontested election. SC's numbers were crazy low. I think at last glance Biden got 700,000 here. He got around 800,000 in 2020.

I mean, when no one else is running, that's not nothing.

[JohnSJ]

22. 100000 uncommitted Democratic votes is significant, and I am not sure they will

vote for Biden in the general. We definitely need some anti-Trump republicans or independents, or we are in trouble in Michigan

[Demsrule86]

31. No it really isn't. These voters voted for Bernie Sanders in the 2020 primary.

We saw the same sort of thing in Michigan in 2012. I think you are making more out of this than there really is and there are many more Jewish voters in this country. If Biden did some sort of crackdown, we would surely lose this vote. In the late 60's, the Vietnam War was way more personal for Americans. But consider that The pro-war candidate still won. McCarthy offered to end the war.

And it was our war. Of course, primarying a sitting president is a sin that always leads to disaster, but I digress. The Middle East situation is not our war. We don't have the power to end it. Biden is not a king and has an uncooperative Congress thus we are limited in what we can do in the Middle East and elsewhere...but I expect some sort of deal with Netanyahu will be achieved. And soon he will be gone.

[ProfessorGAC]

36. Didn't Actually Read My Post, Did You?

I laid out why I disagree.
Your response is "Because I day so."
Pretty weak rejoinder.

[JohnSJ]

37. Sure I read your post. I just think that the arguments you presented on the

Democratic primary analysis could be applied to the republican primary. Trump is the Republican candidate. After Haly’s showing in NH and South Carolina, it was pretty clear that Trump would be their nominee. Still a lot of republicans came out for their primary

[Kaleva]

10. Just under 300k turned out to vote for Haley

Add the 30k plus that voted uncommitted, there is your difference

[MistakenLamb]

19. it was a non competitive primary, let's see the turnout for the August senate primary before we wring our hands too much

[ecstatic]

6. I fully understand the purpose but I still have a bad feeling about it

The messaging is too confusing for voters. Protest vote against Biden but somehow vote for him in the fall? Will regular, non-political people understand that? I really wish this could have been resolved in a different way.

[Beastly Boy]

13. The media will read a hell of a lot into it.

Expect to hear all about the 13% uncommitted Democrats (which itself may be false) and zilch about Biden's 80% until at least the next primary.

Expect Trump bringing this up in his every speech, and his Tlaib-hating minions cheer extatically over it. Expect Trump bitch about Democrats caring more about foreigners than they do about "real Americans".

Expect a sufficient number of the uncommitted mess up Michigan general elections in November.

This is an unforced gift to Trump no matter how you look at it. I've seen this before. It's 2016 all over again.

[Kaleva]

14. We don't know how many were Rs voting to make Biden look bad

People are operating under the assumption that 100% of those who voted uncommitted are Democrats or voters who usually vote D

[MistakenLamb]

18. Biden got half a million votes in a non competitive primary too

[William769]

21. This troll is no longer with us.

Go Blue 2024!

[Demsrule86]

23. About the same as voted this way during 2012where Obama won by 9:30 on election day.

So you are wrong. Trump lost way more votes. And of course, we have a party coming after women and trying to end democracy...so I am not worried. Roe, Roe your vote.

[onenote]

25. 2012 were caucuses, not a primary. Stop comparing 2012 to 2024

[SoFlaBro]

26. A big nothing burger. 13% is in line with every Michigan primary. Try again.

[betsuni]

28. The voters have some work to do in Michigan to not be idiots.

[Nanjeanne]

34. Considering that Hillary lost Michigan by a bit over 10,000 votes - it does make it something the Democrats should

be concerned about. Unfortunately, it's not the popular vote that will win it for us - but the electoral college. And states like Michigan are ones we really need to win.

The counties where uncommitted beat Biden - like Dearborn and Hamtramck- we really need to win. And college towns like Ann Arbor and East Lansing - uncommitted got a fairly substantial percentage.

[krawhitham]

38. They failed, 13% uncommitted for Joe in 2024 and 11% uncommitted for Obama in 2012

[Greybnk48]

40. Meh! Listen to the analysis on Lawrence O'Donnell's show last night.

The uncommitted movement is a nothing burger for Biden vote-wise.

HOWEVER, imo and the opinions of many, their sentiment is totally valid, duly noted, and I will add that the massacre that was ordered on Gaza is evil and vile.

Despite his success last night, the President needs to come out FORCEFULLY against the illegal slaughter of civilians in Gaza, AND against the Netanyahu. Everyone should know who he is by now.

I don't want to fight with anyone here about it. It seems pretty basic to know that murder of innocents is always evil.