Is Biden in Denial About the Polls? Or is the happy talk just spin?

[brooklynite]

New York Magazine

There is a persistent strain of thought among many Democratic partisans that polls showing Biden trailing are inaccurate. The theory goes that polls have missed Democratic Party strength in the 2022 midterms and a series of special and off-year elections, thereby demonstrating that polling predictably underestimates Democratic strength at the polls.

This theory is deeply unpersuasive. In the Trump era, Republicans have gained strength among low-propensity voters, while Democrats have gained among high-propensity voters. This means low-turnout elections systematically select for a more Democratic electorate, a reversal of the historic pattern. It does not necessarily translate to presidential elections, which draw a much larger cohort. In 2020, polls heavily overestimated Biden and underestimated Trump.

These partisans often point to the widespread expectation of a “red wave” in 2022. But that narrative was driven by reporters and pundits ignoring the polls, which showed a much closer split and no red wave. It is not a reason to discard polls. Polls are not and never have been perfect, and they usually miss the result by at least a little. But it is impossible to predict beforehand either the size or the direction of a polling error.

The polls may be underestimating Biden, but they may just as well be underestimating Trump. To assume Biden must be doing better than the polls indicate is nothing more than wishful thinking.

[TexasBushwhacker]

1. Let me check my crystal ball

National polls mean nothing as long as we have the fucking electoral college!

[All Mixed Up]

3. It's not just national polls where Biden is trailing, tho.

[All Mixed Up]

2. Polls are an incomplete picture.

Most polls released right now have a high undecided number and that makes them pretty useless at the moment, especially when a lot of these polls are within the MOE.

What we do know is that Trump has likely shored up his base support a bit more than Biden. But that also means maybe he's capped out at his current percentages. What is not evidence, and there's no proof of this, is that Biden is losing support to Trump. So, much of the support Biden garnered in 2020 is either undecided between Biden, voting third party or not voting at all - but again, no evidence that they're voting Trump.

If there's 10% undecided and Biden wins 70% of that, that'll add 7 points to his average right now.

Until we get further into the election season, it's pointless to look at polls RIGHT NOW and claim much of anything beyond the fact it's an incomplete picture.

[RockRaven]

4. What is the upside to admitting you are trailing a traitorous fraudster and rapist?

How does that help achieve the goal exactly?

[58Sunliner]

5. Anyway...

[William Gustafson]

6. Polls mean nothing these days...

All polls taken are taken from Land Lines. Most people have gotten rid of land lines, with the exception of the baby boomers.
Most of the younger generations use their cell phones as their "landline".
So, most of these polls are not accurate because it leaves out hundreds of millions of voters.

And this "Biden is too old" is a Russian talking point.... I see what he has done, and I will be voting for him again. If he passes away the day after he is in office, I trust Kamala to fill in the shoes. And God willing, Joe will be around for another 4 years to lead our country....

Russia will spread propaganda just like they did in the last two elections... so they can get their comrade into office (Trump), but believe nothing, and watch what they do instead.... It's telling what they are going to do to this country.

[ITAL]

7. They're not necessarily just calling landlines

I did a political poll a year or two ago on my cellphone. It wasn't about national politics, but about state stuff here in California.

[womanofthehills]

11. Wrong - NYTs says 3/4 of polls now on cell phones

1/4 land lines. Some polls are also online polls.

[regnaD kciN]

19. The big difference is...

…on modern cell phones, you can see who’s calling beforehand. Old-time landlines didn’t give you that choice. And most cellphone users won’t pick up a call from an unknown number.

[BootinUp]

8. In January 1983, a poll showed Reagan losing to Mondale by twelve percentage points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan_1984_presidential_campaign

[All Mixed Up]

9. What was he polling vs Mondale in March, 1984?

A poll done almost two years out from an election seems less reliable than polls done eight months from the election - or at least not a very good comparison.

[BootinUp]

10. The economy had recovered in 83 so he was in better shape.

Bidens economy only got reported as better, 2 months ago really.

[All Mixed Up]

12. Reagan had nearly two years to get voter sentiment behind him.

Biden does not have two years. He has only a handful of months.

It's clear the economy has not helped boost Biden's numbers. Using Reagan's polling is an apples to oranges comparison.

The last time Biden led Trump in the average of polls for a prolonged period of time was back in September.

[BootinUp]

14. I am not that worried. The economy is going to start booming and

the actually campaigning is just starting. Biden has been taking a lot of disinformation shots, and now he has to work harder to deflect some of that. It is certainly in Bidens favor that Trump is running one of the worst campaigns I have ever seen.

[All Mixed Up]

18. What is your definition of booming?

Unless prices start going to down and gas, which has gone up again, goes down, the booming metrics have been there for months and months (job creation, unemployment)

Even inflation has largely been unchanged the last few months:

[BootinUp]

21. Consumer confidence, lower inflation,

Interest rate news continues to be positive.

[Mountainguy]

13. It's March

There's not a lot of reason to be worried about polling right now, and even less reason to tell people you are worried about it.

[BootinUp]

15. +1

[JI7]

16. What exactly are people supposed to do ?

Maybe the polls are accurate and he is behind . What is he supposed to do that he isn't doing ?

[Tom of Temecula]

17. What if the polls are right?

[Silent3]

20. Low turnout favors Democrats? Since when?

First of all, I'm actually in favor of the overall point of this article - I think there's an awful lot of wishful thinking about Biden's chances and careless dismissal of the significance of polls. I personally think Biden has a good chance of winning, but I don't get there by chanting "Polls are meaningless!" or "It's too early!".

Perhaps the Dobbs decision is getting more Democrats out during low turn-out elections than we've been used to seeing, but my general impression over time is that the rabid Republican base has been among committed voters in off-year and special elections.