Mar 5th: TIPP and Morning Consult Polls have BIDEN in a 1 pt lead. Where are the chicken littles today?

[SoFlaBro]

https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling

So calm down. Three other polls released this week show them in a tie. Economist. AP. ImpactResearch.

So it is what we expected. A dead heat with many many undecideds.

Stop getting worked up over a slanted NY Times poll that claims Orange Bastard is tied with women and has doubled the number of black votes he will receive.

From Morning Consult:
"Biden retakes lead from Trump: Biden leads Trump, the likeliest Republican presidential nominee for 2024, by 1 percentage point (44% to 43%) in our latest national tracking survey. It’s Biden’s first lead over Trump since early January, and is driven by coalescence among the voters who backed him last time around: 85% of Biden 2020 voters say they’d vote for him if the election were today, the largest share since early September."

[Silent Type]

1. Hopefully, it's a positive trend. But dead heat with that POS, 6 months from now

will have me refilling anxiety pill Rx.

[SoFlaBro]

2. Undecideds hover between 10%-20% with 1 poll showing that as Dems spread policy positions, independents lean heavy Dem.

[Silent Type]

3. That's another good sign. But I question how anyone can be undecided at this point.

[SoFlaBro]

12. People are busy watching The Masked Singer and The Office reruns. They aren't paying attention....yet.

[Demsrule86]

4. Please stop. The polls are ridiculous...to early and aggregates are dismal a failure.

[SoFlaBro]

5. Pretty sure that's what I just said. Too early to tell anything other than it is a horserace with many undecided.

[DBoon]

6. The sky is rising! The sky is rising!

The sky was falling yesterday, but now it is back up.

[SoFlaBro]

8. It's a lol'er coaster!!

[All Mixed Up]

7. If Biden is up one, that means he's doing three-points worse than he did in 2020.

That likely will net him an electoral college loss.

But these polls are basically the same as the ones that show him narrowly losing: at the end of the day, it's all within the MOE (or most anyway) and there remains a lot of undecided voters. So, you can't really make heads or tails except that this election is up for grabs according to the polls.

Morning Consult having him up one at 44-43 means 13% remains undecided. That's a big number.

[PortTack]

9. NO...polls are abysmally inaccurate these days. Look at the last 3 election cycles where they were so far off

This one isn’t any different

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-polls-were-mostly-wrong/

https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-elections-statistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/03/02/what-2020s-election-poll-errors-tell-us-about-the-accuracy-of-issue-polling/

The only accurate measure is how Dems have been over performing since ‘18

?si=Zku2AU6rnvk_wIwE

[All Mixed Up]

10. Not really.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/us/elections/2022-poll-accuracy.html

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats

[SoFlaBro]

11. Interesting. I had not seen that before. I knew it! The polls were full of fucking shit in 2018, 2020, and 2022.

[elocs]

14. "There remains a lot of undecided voters." How in the hell is that ever even possible??? n/t

[elocs]

13. "So calm down." How I love being lectured to, I'm certain others here enjoy it too.

But I've had 50+ years of voting exclusively for Democrats and more times than I can count I've watched them too often be complacent and lose elections as a result. So anything that motivates Democrats and the Left to get out and vote for Biden is a good thing.
So no, I won't calm down.