'Uncommitted' vote against Biden blows past goal in Minnesota's Democratic primary

[WhiskeyGrinder]

https://www.startribune.com/uncommitted-vote-against-biden-blows-past-goal-in-minnesotas-democratic-primary/600348773/

A push from progressive Minnesotans and members of the Muslim community to get voters to check "uncommitted" in the state's Democratic presidential primary won nearly 46,000 votes on Tuesday, far surpassing their goal of 5,000 votes.

Organizers of the campaign declared victory Tuesday night, saying the result will send a message to President Joe Biden that large factions of his own party want him to support a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

(snip)

The campaign is building on momentum from a similar push in Michigan, which earned more than 100,000 votes in the state's primary last week. Both Minnesota and Michigan were crucial states in Biden's 2020 victory.

While Biden overwhelmingly won the primary with 70% of the vote, the uncommitted votes came in second, earning nearly 19% of the vote and beating Minnesota DFL U.S. Rep. Dean Philips in his home state. Given their turnout, organizers said they will be able to send delegates to the DNC's convention in Chicago in August.

[Walleye]

1. Who do you suppose these folks will vote for in the general election?

[bigtree]

2. if you look at the exit polls, they expressed support for Democratic priorities

...those are Biden votes from engaged voters certain to show in the general.

[underpants]

3. The problem both sides face is voters not voting for POTUS

and that could translate down ballot if people don’t vote at all.
I think they still vote for Biden but they wanted to make a statement

[Ocelot II]

9. Voting uncommitted was performative. They were "sending a message," blah blah blah,

knowing it wouldn't change the result, and mostly in the 5th CD. Elsewhere in the state most people were just voting, not performing.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

4. Some will vote for Biden. Some will not vote in the presidential election. No idea on what the breakdown might be.

[bigtree]

7. not anywhere near the same on the republican side

James Singer @Jemsinger 16h
More evidence Donald Trump has a real problem consolidating GOP primary voters and moderates

Exit polls: VA GOP primary voters: Feelings if Trump wins the nomination?
· Satisfied: 62%
· Dissatisfied: 36%

NC: Feelings if Trump wins the nomination?
· Satisfied: 74%
· Dissatisfied:…

"Notably, 78% of Haley voters in the North Carolina Republican presidential primary, 69% in California and 68% in Virginia are unwilling to say they'll support the party's nominee whoever it is."

Link to tweet

[Walleye]

11. I hope that holds up, but it seems like Republicans have some kind of disease

[bigtree]

17. I think most of this represents independents in open primaries

...the results were starkly different in a closed primary I looked at last night, I think in Texas.

[All Mixed Up]

22. The problem with these numbers...

1. There were no exit polls done on the Democratic side so we don't know if Biden's numbers, at least the satisfied/unsatisfied part would be similar to Trump's. We can assume maybe not because he's winning by a wider clip than Trump but it's not an apples to apples comparison as Haley was a much more visible and known candidate than Dean Phillips. Biden has only faced token opposition in this race. A more known Democrat might have done substantially better than Phillips.

2. You mentioned in another post that Haley is doing better in open primaries than closed, meaning crossover appeal. How many Haley voters in these open primary states ever supported Trump? How many actually voted Trump in 2020? I suspect that number probably mirrors, or is close to, the polling on whether they'll vote for Trump or not in November.

So, is Trump actually losing support or are these old school Republicans and independents who never supported Trump in the first place?

That's the million dollar question. If Trump never had these voters to begin with, then he isn't actually losing anything.

[bigtree]

24. all but one ST race had President Biden pulling 90 plus percent of the vote

...and the exit polls I saw where there was a large vote for a non-candidate showed concern for issues associated with Democratic agendas, and no hint of what attracts voters to the MAGA cult.

It's been made clear in most reporting that most of those uncommitted voters are protest actions, and intend to be Biden votes in the general.

[All Mixed Up]

26. Biden has not faced a serious primary challenge.

And states where Biden did less than 90% on Super Tuesday (and I'll round so I won't count California, which was 89.5%):

Utah (88%)
Colorado (84%)
Texas (85%)
Oklahoma (73%)
Minnesota (71%)
Arkansas (89%)
North Carolina (87%)
Virginia (89%)
Massachusetts (83%)

Not bad numbers at all but of course, Biden wasn't facing any real, viable competition.

Still, 17% of voters in Massachusetts voted for someone other than Biden.13% in North Carolina. 29% in Minnesota. 15% in Texas. 16% in Colorado.

Again, not bad numbers but if Biden was facing an actual primary challenger that was decently known, who knows how narrower those margins would become?

And that's my point.

[bigtree]

30. that doesn't mean the party isn't behind him

...there's no serious challenger because he's a strong incumbent.

Period.

Inventing opposition for the sake of a hypothetical is just fantasy politics.

And much of that uncommitted vote represented deliberate protest campaigns on issues that aren't in any way suppported by any republican, much less a republican candidate for president.

It's always been this way.

Let's not ignore that Obama had an average uncommitted vote of about 10% in 2012.

His uncommitted numbers in Michigan, for instance, were almost identical to Biden's.

Link to tweet

[All Mixed Up]

35. I never claimed Biden doesn't have the party behind him.

The question isn't where he has the party behind him but how much of the party behind him?

Biden has won 85% overall of the Democratic Primary. That's about five-points worse than Obama in 2012 nationally (Obama won 90% of the overall primary vote in 2012). BTW, the average uncommitted vote for Obama in 2012 was 4.9%.

Five-percent isn't a lot. Of course, there's still a lot of states left to hold their primaries and 'uncommitted' might climb higher depending on the state. We'll see.

But the real question is how those 15% plan on voting. We don't have those numbers. If 90% of that 15% plan on voting Biden in November, he's probably in a good spot.

With that said, the concerns about Biden among *some* Democratic faithful, especially as it relates to Palestine, is significantly more vocal than anything we heard in 2012 with Obama.

Just look at Minnesota, where in 2012 Obama won 96.3% of the vote in their caucus. As I showed already, Biden won 71% in the Minnesota Primary.

I think Biden could be doing A LOT worse but it's hubris, imo, to ignore some of these warning signs. There's clearly frustration with Biden, especially as it relates to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Is it going to be enough to sabotage his reelection chances? I lean no but as I said in my main post: without actual data on these uncommitted voters, we just don't know. And we don't have data on them.

[David__77]

36. Also note that at least in CA the total omits writeins and undervotes.

It will be of interest to do comparative analysis including these buckets of votes in the totals.

[Pototan]

8. People will get the government they deserve

The only way to save Democracy in America is to vote and support Joe Biden for President.

Anything else will contribute to the disaster.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

10. The concept of "deserving" is such an odd one, particuarly when talking about government in a widely disenfranchised

nation.

[Walleye]

12. Well, people who choose not to vote are definitely disenfranchised by themselves

[JohnSJ]

31. Exactly.

[Walleye]

13. We have to try to drill it into their heads that not voting for Biden, is voting for Trump

That is the cold hard facts of life

[WhiskeyGrinder]

14. People are generaly very aware of what the stakes are when they check one box over another -- or don't.

[Walleye]

23. I hope so.

[FHRRK]

5. Is there a comparison to 2012

They pulled a fast one in Michigan and had a 10k goal.
Turns out Uncommitted had 5x that vote in the 2012 Primary.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

6. Uncommitted got a little more than 3% in 2012. OTOH, that was a caucus result; this is Minnesota's first

presidential year with a primary.

[FHRRK]

19. Thanks

Hard to compare, but they did seem to increase a the %.

I get their point.

Just need to be smart about making a point vs tearing down Biden

[Demsrule86]

16. Yes, when I saw the internal polls in 12, I literally cried. I was worried that we would lose.

I had voters who slammed their doors after screaming about Benghazi and other stuff including the ACA...and remember, we only call on Democrats. But we won by 9:30 on election night.

[PortTack]

21. That's right! I'd be willing to bet its the same in MN

[TwilightZone]

15. MI and MN both appear to have set intentionally low goals.

The organizers almost certainly knew going in about what to expect. That's why they're organizers. It looks like they set low goals for public consumption so that the campaigns could appear more successful than expected.

[usonian]

18. Democrats don't get more left wing than in CA, and Biden took 90% of the vote or more

Two candidates ran against him, no “uncommitted”.

[David__77]

29. Note CA state results do not include undervotes or write-ins.

Not that it makes a huge difference... The California state statistics do not include undervotes (nothing filled in on Democratic ballot for president) or write-in votes.

For instance, while Biden has 89.4% of Fresno County votes for qualified Democratic candidates, this omits the 7% of votes (at the moment) that are undervotes for president and the >2% that are write-ins.

State data for county:
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/county/fresno

Fresno County data showing undervotes/write-ins:
https://www.fresnocountyca.gov/Departments/County-ClerkRegistrar-of-Voters/Elections/Election-Results/2024/RESULTS-FOR-MARCH-5-2024-CONSOLIDATED-PRESIDENTIAL-PRIMARY-ELECTION

Of course, counting is not complete so those numbers may change. For comparison, in 2020 primary, there were 3.0% Democratic presidential primary undervotes and just 2 write-in votes:
https://www.fresnocountyca.gov/Departments/County-ClerkRegistrar-of-Voters/Elections/Election-Results/2020/RESULTS-OF-THE-MARCH-3-2020-PRESIDENTIAL-PRIMARY-ELECTION

In Sacramento County in 2020, there were 1.5% undervotes among Democratic ballots:
https://elections.saccounty.net/ElectionInformation/Documents/2020-March-Primary/M2020-Statement%20of%20the%20Vote%20-%20Web%20and%20CD%20Version.pdf

Currently, the Sacramento County undervote rate is 7.4%: https://eresults.saccounty.net/

[PortTack]

20. FYI: President Obama had a very similar number of uncommitted voters in MI during his reelection bid

It’s not a big deal

[TakeItEasy]

25. Cease fire now.

Stop sending our tax payer dollars to support genocide.

That's it.

[JohnSJ]

28. How about demanding release of the HOSTAGES? Did you also speak out when hamas killed,

raped and tortured civilians on October 7, which precipitated this whole tragedy?

[JohnSJ]

27. They assume Biden isn't aware? and if they refuse to vote for him in November, and we lose

because of that, they DESERVE ANYTHING THAT TRUMP DOES TO THEM

[WhiskeyGrinder]

33. Isn't aware of what?

they DESERVE ANYTHING THAT TRUMP DOES TO THEM

Does that mean you would let those things, whatever they are, happen?

[NoMoreRepugs]

32. Just WTF do these people expect the Biden administration to do? Seriously, what?

No disrespect, but if you really want to change things move back and work on making the changes you want. Don't set everything at the feet of JoeB.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

34. Stop flooding arms into Israel despite mounting alarm over war's conduct

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218749922

The United States has quietly approved and delivered more than 100 separate foreign military sales to Israel since the Gaza war began Oct. 7, amounting to thousands of precision-guided munitions, small diameter bombs, bunker busters, small arms and other lethal aid, U.S. officials told members of Congress in a recent classified briefing.

The triple digit figure, which has not been previously reported, is the latest indication of Washington’s extensive involvement in the polarizing five-month conflict even as top U.S. officials and lawmakers increasingly express deep reservations about Israel’s military tactics in a campaign that has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities.

…

Taken together, the weapons packages amount to a massive transfer of firepower at a time when senior U.S. officials have complained that Israeli officials have fallen short on their appeals to limit civilian casualties, allow more aid into Gaza, and refrain from rhetoric calling for the permanent displacement of Palestinians.

“That’s an extraordinary number of sales over the course of a pretty short amount of time, which really strongly suggests that the Israeli campaign would not be sustainable without this level of U.S. support,” said Jeremy Konyndyk, a former senior Biden administration official and current president of Refugees International.