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We had a whale of a fight in our house tonight, my kids telling me that they wouldn't vote for Biden because "he's bombing the Palestinians in Gaza". This comes from their social media groups, as well as from their very alt-Left grandmother who is very pro-Hamas. We are not, I understand that, but this seems to be a very pervasive sentiment among the Tik-Tok generation.
Ocelot II
(115,869 posts)considering he implemented a Muslim ban and he's Netanyahu's good buddy.
PufPuf23
(8,839 posts)Walleye
(31,062 posts)The Wizard
(12,549 posts)Most Republicans support Putin over Biden. The source of this anti American sentiment lies at the feet of Russian propagandist Rupert Murdoch and his Pox News propaganda operation .
question everything
(47,537 posts)Mister Ed
(5,944 posts)One thing I've learned late in life is that you can't reason someone out of something that reason did not lead them into.
There's an extremely effective psy-ops effort afoot on social media, and once it's taken root, facts will do little to dislodge it.
Many young people now believe that Biden himself is in command of the Gaza bombardment, and trying to dissuade them of this is like trying to reason with my MAGA-cultist brother-in-law.
Lonestarblue
(10,084 posts)A vote against Biden would be perceived as a protest against his support of Netanyahu and the ongoing murder of innocents in Gaza. Such voters might not vote for Trump either, but leaving the presidential choice blank could help Trump win. Im not sure Bidens advisers are thinking about the perception that it is US bombs being used to murder women and children.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)Biden's response has consistently been that he is horrified by both the death of thousands of Palestinians and the innocent Israelis who died on October 7. He had a considerable part of his national security team working on every possible ceasefire plan. In recent days, including the SOTU, he expressed disagreement with Netanyahu.
Even before this, Biden has been more candid in support of a Palestinian state and against illegal settlements than any previous President. On the other hand, Trump and Pompeo changed US policy to say we don't have an opinion on whether any settlements are illegal.
I agree that this puts him in a bad position politically and I do think that he should have at leased abstained on the ceasefire resolution. However, one thing they know that I don't is whether doing so would make Netanyahu double down, making it harder to get aid in and actually speeding up the bombing. Consider that the UN resolution alone would not stop the fighting. It would make Israel feel persecuted and a victim especially, as they would note, they didn't start this.
Politically, consider how quickly the problem on the left would become a bigger problem in the center by being seen as abandoning Israel.
anamnua
(1,119 posts)former9thward
(32,082 posts)The Israelis made Jerusalem the capital. Ever since the founding.
Response to Ocelot II (Reply #1)
B.See This message was self-deleted by its author.
B.See
(1,292 posts)(meaning the Palestinians) is what he said.
That's because Trump doesn't give a fuck. Doubt that? Ask the KURDS.
"Finish the problem": Trump's answer on Gaza shows he's "even worse" than Biden on Israel -Salon
"Trump is a big fan of war crimes, especially against Muslims," The Intercept's James Risen writes
NYC Liberal
(20,136 posts)be rebuilt better. These people hate Trump but think he should win because once things get so bad, there will be a revolution that will end all our problems.
Its by no means a new mentality. A lot of people voted for Nader in 2000 with this idea.
TheKentuckian
(25,029 posts)murder Jews.
They don't give a flying fuck about Palestinians any more than does Hamas.
If Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, or their beloved Hamas was directly absolutely liquidating them they wouldn't even say so much as boo.
It is all about the genocidal "cause".
brush
(53,872 posts)and neither Netanyahu or Hamas are cooperating, meanwhile Palestinians keep dying from IDF bombs.
Big Blue Marble
(5,150 posts)So the blame Netanyahu first argument only goes so far.
brush
(53,872 posts)Tell 'em to research his Plan 2025.
BootinUp
(47,194 posts)to support Israel in the year 2024. And those are some really fucked up earths.
stopdiggin
(11,371 posts)And it should be acknowledged that Biden has been trying to urge deescalation - for a solid period of time now. If that argument doesn't cut it - that probably just places a certain unpersuadable faction out there in the "my way or the highway" crowd. It's unfortunate, but there really isn't much point in expending a lot of effort in changing a clearly entrenched point of view.
usonian
(9,898 posts)Please read through these threads and posts. They are not long and contain arguments really appropriate for young people.
Start here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218767575
Bernie Sanders Tells Progressives Why They Must Vote For Joe Biden
My daughter's response was WOW
More
https://democraticunderground.com/1016374137
The Case for Biden
and in some detail:
https://democraticunderground.com/1016374164
14 College, Young Voter Groups Endorse Biden-Harris, Campaign Starts 'Students for Biden-Harris'
I spell out the dystopian GOP vision there.
and here, if you like:
Young people (mentioned above) no doubt sense the dystopian alternative, having seen its affects
especially on school massacres and LGBTQ+ persecuting and the GOP war on women.
Here's the list I share with young people. Steal it and share it.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18754657
Your alternative dystopian future.
Government dictates what you read, your religion and your private life. Period trackers mandatory, and report to the government.
More welfare for the rich.
Americans pitted against each other along lines of race, color, religion, gender, sexuality, and income. Vilification of blacks, Jews, Muslims, lgbtq+ , homeless, and women of strength, with increasing violence, even murder against them.
Private health care companies deny needed treatments to save money. (Death panels are here!)
The wealthy pay even less in taxes.
Every civil right is eroded by clown judges living in the 18th century rewriting the constitution.
Worker's rights and benefits reduced in order to create greater profits for businesses.
Safety nets removed, so that homeless, and jobless people are left to die on the streets.
More, more, more of culture war.
GUNS, everywhere, with no limitations or requirements. Kids get them freely.
Minorities and women blamed for every imaginable blip.
Support of authoritarian regimes across the globe, who eagerly imprison, "re-educate", murder and commit atrocities on others.
Lies, hate speech and threats are welcomed on "social media" and given support by government officials.
Medical care and prescription drug costs skyrocket.
OH, AND A MERCILESS AND VICIOUS WAR AGAINST WOMEN.
PERSECUTION AND PROSECUTION FOR ASSERTING ANY RIGHTS AT ALL.
-----
I commented on this:
My daughter replied with a WOW to it, and I hope it convinces many others of what there is to lose, while Bernie and Kamala speak (to Joe) for all civilians brutalized by the war.
I am a techie and got on a sales team as the system engineer or sales engineer as its now called. Wanting to know more about the sales process, I read lots, and got one of those personal MBA degrees (the ones that you award yourself!)
Well, a lot of it had to do with persuasion. You cant reason with someone you just pissed off (Ive seen that in customers who werent notified of changes in the sales team) and you always look for common ground to set a baseline for discussions. It sometimes takes people a long time (or never) to understand these, and I am so proud that Bernie is working with Joe closely, if not in perfect agreement at all times. Together, they have gotten a lot of progressive legislation passed, and I see the same common ground being established with young people, who have the choice of two distinct futures, and can rely on Joe Bidens big heart to help all. He has demonstrated that in all the good he has done for people who voted against him.
mopinko
(70,235 posts)not sit on his hands and make a scene at the convention like he did in 16.
and he better get a grip on his followers.
samnsara
(17,636 posts)calimary
(81,507 posts)NoRethugFriends
(2,338 posts)NoSheep
(8,130 posts)I thought it was Hillary or Obama's fault
mopinko
(70,235 posts)and he never, not once, told the bros to cut it out.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)A simple google found this article where the head line says it all - He had a packed schedule of events. https://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-packs-schedule-with-campaign-stops-for-hillary-clinton-1475928002
In September, October and November of 2016, Sanders held 39 rallies in 13 states on behalf of Clintons campaign. He did 17 events in 11 states during the last week alone, they point out.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/477721-democrats-voice-concerns-over-sanders/
Please stop this Bernie bashing with no evidence.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 12, 2024, 03:58 PM - Edit history (1)
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,965 posts)Nice try, though.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)He had already critically wounded her by calling her corrupt. A refrain which Trump later took up. You may remember that interview but I remember them pelting her with coins in California.
By June she had already wrapped up enough Delegates for the nomination, without even the super delegates, but he was still go hard at her supposed "corruption." He was even a bit hypocritical because he floated the idea of the "super delegates" voting for him at the convention when he had been complaining about the super Delegates earlier.
Of course, it was said he wanted a seat at the platform but in my opinion he could've gotten that without damaging her more. She confronted him at that 1st debate and asked him to show when she had altered her votes and he didn't answer.
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,965 posts)Is there any evidence that he would have had a seat at the platform without the pressure? Especially given what the DNC did to try push him out? I don't think so.
And, lets not forget, that Sanders voters voted for Clinton in the general at a higher percentage than Clinton voters voted for Obama. He did his job. Better than she did her job for Obama.
edisdead
(1,957 posts)I only read critical items from him.
Oopsie Daisy
(2,675 posts)(thank you)
Response to NoRethugFriends (Reply #60)
traitorsgalore This message was self-deleted by its author.
NoSheep
(8,130 posts)Then young folks WOULD have no reason to vote for him
yardwork
(61,712 posts)betsuni
(25,638 posts)in the primaries and the Democratic platform. Some language changes (like "take on" and "fight for" and so on) is all I remember, not basic policies, same as 2016.
ecstatic
(32,733 posts)for all these various fractures that are emerging right before this election. It's exhausting. We need fast access to responses for every topic. My brain is fried after work.
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)He has no problem with atrocity.
He would "finish" it.
Joe is negotiating, bringing aid, telling Bibi there is a red line. Trump would encourage Bibi to mow them down without reservation.
But nice post you put together!!
usonian
(9,898 posts)Taking notes for the next version.
I know that brevity is important. It's a balance.
But one or two points should register strongly with each person.
More Hitler parroting. It seems deliberate but I don't think it will grow his "base".
BootinUp
(47,194 posts)It might be too much to expect the younger more naive among us to really comprehend the I/P situation, especially when that means separating propaganda and opinion from fact.
Stuart G
(38,448 posts)Stuart G
(38,448 posts)mucifer
(23,569 posts)edisdead
(1,957 posts)stopdiggin
(11,371 posts)it's a relatively straightforward and simple equation. If your relatives (or whomever) are not capable of processing that ... That's on them.
Sorry for your family situation - - but I don't have any more time for this.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
lostnfound
(16,191 posts)tazkcmo
(7,302 posts)Mariana
(14,861 posts)We only need the young voters because the majority of old people vote Republican.
stopdiggin
(11,371 posts)or working through issues. As I laid out, this is the 'my way or highway crowd' - and that mindset is neither persuadable nor open to anything like a larger picture, or process.
They do not have time for the complexities I grapple with and see in the world - and, as a result, I have no more time for them.
(and they - many of them, and many quite publicly - have already told me the role they intend to play in November. and, with that in mind - 'Don't let the door hit ya' .. "
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,145 posts)They don't t want him, but they got him. It's up to them to make the case that he is making a bad situation much worse for Israel in the long run.
AloeVera
(946 posts)Not a popular opinion here, but the rot runs much deeper than this one man.
Nearly 70% of Israelis oppose ANY humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Less than 5% think the war on Gaza has gone too far.
Large majority support the expansion of the settlements in the West Bank.
Polls on Israeli attitudes towards "Arabs" show a distinctly dehumanizing, supremacist mindset. But don't need polls for that, read the nasty comments on social media.
This is the real problem and I don't see much hope as long as it's not addressed.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,145 posts)I've been following him for a long time and know the country didn't want him back in power. And then on his watch Hamas attacked and took hostages.
They are in a Catch 22. The kind of situation we may find ourselves in if the country goes fir the wannabe dic.
TheKentuckian
(25,029 posts)turn very sour on those that terrorize them for generations, multiple wars of aggression to wipe them off the globe, and openly call for their literal genocide to the moment.
Dehumanization?
Go and mingle with the Arabs and Persians in their bastions of freedom and liberty and see how human you get to be and for how long.
What is the deal with the coddling of these radical regressives and handwaiving their collective heinous and ultra authoritarian bullshit?
Left my ass, what is left about a bunch of terrorizing hardline theocrats that almost make Putin seem moderate?
AloeVera
(946 posts)The rest of your post is a shining example of the very demonization you shrug off.
I guess that makes it easier to blur the line between the authoritarian, theocratic leadership and the ordinary people who just want to live their lives, and have no say in who rules them. But it is they who are getting slaughtered and starved to death.
I don't care what your reasoning or justification is for this odious "war" at this point. It's way past time to reel Israel in.
mchill
(1,018 posts)They werent going to vote for Biden because he didnt support universal healthcare.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)betsuni
(25,638 posts)and soon many mindlessly repeated it too and the ACA became bad. The three words Medicare for All held very powerful magical powers.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)Mariana
(14,861 posts)GoodRaisin
(8,929 posts)mis-characterization of what Biden is doing.
KY_EnviroGuy
(14,494 posts)It has become a massive propaganda tool for every evil force on earth, which pays huge dividends with a tiny investment. It's being used to divide families and friends, communities and states by keeping the masses in constant confusion, deception and information overload.
Our minds simply cannot cope with exposure to every soul on the planet 24/7. There's nothing "social" about social media in my book, as I see "social" as face-to-face or at least voices over the phone.
Brainwash media would be a better term......
Thanks for sharing, Metaphorical. Hopefully, humanity can return to normal, sane behavior soon....
Think. Again.
(8,426 posts)Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)There was just a protest in NYC about a week ago that got no press, but did bring in 50K people, mostly young, who may not be as uninformed as the kids the OP is describing but who are furious with our policy toward Palestine.
And that was in NYC.
Hopefully they will vote rationally when the time comes, but the anger is out there.
Think. Again.
(8,426 posts)...are rightfully upset about the brutality in Gaza, but I suspect when it comes to choosing between Biden and trump, our young voters are much more on the ball than you're implying.
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 12, 2024, 09:43 PM - Edit history (1)
TheKentuckian
(25,029 posts)Genocide Joe anymore than they would someone they call.Chester the Molester.
You cannot go that far and come snapping back in a matter of months.
They are lost or absolutely full of shit and know they are but don't give a damn how many holes they punch in the lifeboat while they lie their asses off to keep up the charade only to personally swing back to end around their guilt while they lead the parade in the other direction.
Traitors.
Think. Again.
(8,426 posts)...will make them feel any more positive about voting Blue in November.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 12, 2024, 07:10 PM - Edit history (1)
Not the base.
lostnfound
(16,191 posts)Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)But you're right.
There are things we can do about this. Joe is obviously conscious of it and working on finding those things.
But according to the people in this thread, if someone is concerned about this, the correct course of action is to slap them, call them names, assume they're reacting to the generation that came before them rather than the situation they are seeing.
Oh, and deny them an education because education is just filling their heads with tarnation newfangled idears that we don't hold with.
What. The. Fuck.
Baltimike
(4,148 posts)Because THAT is the only alternative.
What Smelvis wants done with them. Hell, even left without his devices, what would Moscow Mitch and MTG want done with Palestinians?
If they're stupid enough to fall for that shit, they are indeed stupid enough.
Torchlight
(3,361 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 12, 2024, 07:56 PM - Edit history (1)
What are your kids telling you about trump?
On editt, thanks for the reminder strange email-guy... "Sounds really serious! Best of luck to you!"
betsuni
(25,638 posts)No common sense. A small child or animal can easily figure this out.
BannonsLiver
(16,468 posts)I dont think most of these kids really care one way or another about I/P when you get down to it. The protests are a popular scene like any other at that age.
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)BannonsLiver
(16,468 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 12, 2024, 05:43 PM - Edit history (1)
😉
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)That wouldn't go over well at all.
Because:
betsuni
(25,638 posts)Now I/P is being recycled as the new Vietnam. It worked so quickly this time, though, practically overnight. Grievances make one hip and cool. Yes, yes, yes, stick it to establishment squares mommy and daddy, we are all impressed with your originality and "passion."
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)so many innocent people is not a petty grievance, and with those I have spoken to it has nothing to do with being hip or cool.
Not everything younger people do is a reaction to older people. Most are living their own lives.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)qwlauren35
(6,150 posts)Our government supports Israel, sends money to Israel, supplies weapons to Israel and is silent on their nuclear capabilities.
I think it is reasonable to object to that.
With that said, I truly believe that if this war ends, we can regain these votes.
I also think that the humanitarian aid we send to Gaza is something Biden can take credit for.
TheKentuckian
(25,029 posts)Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)Mariana
(14,861 posts)What happened to their common sense? Why can't they figure it out?
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)betsuni
(25,638 posts)expensive education? No it is not. If someone pays obscene amounts of money for a college degree and doesn't learn basic research skills, critical thinking skills, learns to think for themselves, mindlessly believes conspiracy theories, it's money wasted and elitist, what they imagine Democrats are and hate them for. Duh.
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)samnsara
(17,636 posts)..tell them know you are all moving to Canada if trump is re elected and they can only take what fits in the car.
Have your kids look at what we would have had under Gore..all the things their generation would like.......cheap affordable SOLAR ENERGY!
I remember a bunch of friends voted for Nader against Gore....and they REALLY regretted it saying they should never have casted a protest vote during a Presidential election.
MichMan
(11,977 posts)Cuthbert Allgood
(4,965 posts)Seems like conflicting messages.
MistakenLamb
(538 posts)i am sure you wouldnt stand for alt right MAGA Gran, the same should be for a in your own words a pro Hamas one
Habitation
(5,644 posts)tic-tok-Tic-Tok-TIC-TOK
hear that sound america?
JustBeGood
(3 posts)He's transgender and does not like Biden - solely based on Gaza. He won't vote for Trump - thinking 3rd party.
He actually said "Israel attacked itself to start a war." This is what social media is saying. It's scary.
He's transgender and may put Trump in the Whitehouse. I told him I'd try and sneak him food through the chain link fence at the camp he's sent to. He doesn't get how dangerous it is.
lindysalsagal
(20,733 posts)and I ask him, what? You think voting for the gangster is going to help your interests? They really think writing in someone is "sending a message that they're vewry vewry unhappy." No human will ever see their' Message." fools.
OneGrassRoot
(22,920 posts)with their "fuck you if you tell me to 'vote blue no matter who' at this point. I'm not voting in national elections at all any more." They have no reply to the fact that Trump will be a nightmare for both domestic (something they don't seem to care about any more) as well as foreign policy (their sole focus at this time). I might add that these are progressives from 40 to 70 with various racial and ethnic identities. This was my core group of online friends since the early 2000s. Then the Hillary-Bernie kerfuffle happened and there was a continued divergence to the point we now find ourselves. Certainly the younger generation who are engaged (albeit maybe not getting info from the most reliable sources) are anti-Biden due to him not completely breaking with Israel.
But my opinion after observing for years is that there is a nihilistic contingent on the left who look for reasons to try to destroy Democrats. I think they hate people who "should" be on their side 100% because we share a similar worldview more than the right-wingers who don't remotely have the same worldview. It used to be primarily white people who expressed this left-wing nihilism. Now the nihilism is more diverse, though I do think there are various levels of privilege involved in these groups.
It's hard for me to completely understand how members of the LGBTQ+ community or Muslims or non-Russian immigrants and any number of other groups targeted for destruction by MAGA don't recognize the very direct danger they are in with a Trump presidency. It's not speculation. Maybe they don't care about their own safety for any number of reasons but are they truly considering the millions of others who are more vulnerable than they may be who will be destroyed? That's both here and abroad.
To me it just feels like the anger after the 2016 primaries has snowballed into irrationality for some. Plenty of reasons why we all get frustrated and angry with the Democratic Party but, to me, there's no comparison to what we all face with MAGA.
ETA: This is strictly my experience and observations. Others no doubt have very different impressions and experiences.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)That's why the viciousness since 2016.
"Radicals want fundamental FDR-style change, and believe that requires a revolution. Liberals want FDR-style change and believe that requires continuing incremental change, although occasionally we can manage a big increment like the 1964 Civil Rights Act. So the two sides differ mainly on strategy. ... Liberals do view the conflict as a matter of strategic difference, but the radicals do not. They are sure it's not about strategy. They see liberals as immoral and hence their enemy. ... Why do radicals make such a mean-spirited mistake, which only holds back the very causes they most care about?
"Stunning overconfidence leads to the three damaging mistakes ... : 1. Rejecting compromise -- to seek a revolution. 2. Purity testing -- to vilify those who disagree. 3. Slanderous myths -- to defeat the Democrats. ... Radicals reject compromise for two reasons (1) they think getting the whole pie is the only 'righteous' thing to do, and (2) they believe rejecting half the pie makes getting the whole pie more likely. Unfortunately, it never seems to work out that way. Most people learn this lesson quickly. Why don't the radicals? In part, the answer is stunning overconfidence.
"For example, a radical may be absolutely sure that Medicare for All is the best policy. But the kicker is that they think this is so obvious that everyone can see they are right. So if someone disagrees, that person can't be mistaken -- because 'everyone knows what is right.' And if they are not mistake there is only one possibility left -- they are evil."
Steven Stoft, "How Democrats Win, Resisting Dark-Side Radicalism"
Now the focus has shifted to foreign policy, same irrational hatred.
OneGrassRoot
(22,920 posts)And I observe the same. Its very black-and-white thinking which is understandable in youth; maturity usually allows for complexities. Not so in this certain group of people.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)because of that stunning arrogance. It's a shame.
Response to OneGrassRoot (Reply #55)
traitorsgalore This message was self-deleted by its author.
DemocratInPa
(355 posts)I have 2 in college, my son voted in his first election in 2020 and phone banked for Biden.. My daughter is voting in her first election this year.
My son is saying he is not voting cause of Biden sending weapons to help Israel murder innocent people, and said he is sorry he voted for him in 2020.
My daughter has said cause of Gaza and other issues she may skip this election as her first.
Hear broken if they do this, but I worry there are millions other young people out there thinking the same and it would hurt Biden big time.
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)will vote for Biden but they're not sure about their friends. Next, I'll work on them to try and persuade their friends.
intheflow
(28,504 posts)Along with their "alt-left" grandmother? If so, none of them are left, or even left-leaning. No one agrees with another person 100% of the time, but given the choice, ALWAYS vote for the lesser of two evils.
Irish_Dem
(47,444 posts)Divide liberals.
Set up Biden.
dalton99a
(81,599 posts)It was clearly preplanned.
Irish_Dem
(47,444 posts)With the intent to set up Biden and divide liberals.
That was the plan from the onset.
It has been a very successful plan.
budkin
(6,717 posts)The choice will be clear.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)If they vote third party or dont vote, their futures will be horrible.. much much worse than now.
Scrivener7
(51,018 posts)many in this thread and tell those who have this concern that they're morons and uninformed (they're neither), and then we call them names and kick them around the block a few times, we may not have a lot of success winning their hearts and minds.
bluestarone
(17,055 posts)Ukraine will go down to POOTY, and Hamas will control Israel! (that's my thoughts)
All Mixed Up
(597 posts)The 2020 election was painfully close. I know people will point to the popular vote but that's irrelevant. Biden only won because of 45,000 or so votes across three states: Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.
That's the margin of 2020.
So the question that should be asked is which candidate has lost more support over the last four years?
Certainly neither Biden or Trump have increased their support.
But it does appear Trump has done a better job holding onto his support from four years ago.
Where things get tough for Biden isn't necessarily his losing support to Trump. I don't think he will. But losing support to third party candidates or just to voting.
Most my friends group who voted Biden (even if begrudgingly) in 2020 have vowed not to vote for him in 2024. We've had fights like you, but they won't budge. Biden lost their vote by backing Israel unconditionally (or so they think).
I mention Trump. Their response is that they don't support Trump, either. Even if I point out that not voting Biden indirectly supports Trump, they say it's not their concern. They won't be scared into voting Biden.
It'll be tough to win a lot of these voters over. Still plenty of time but it's why I'm not getting on board with the idea that Biden is going to run away with this election. It'll be close no matter what but he's struggling in states he won last go around and that is going to be tough for him to overcome without shoring up fully those who voted for him in 2020.
If Biden loses just a couple points off his 2020 total to third party candidates, Trump wins without ever expanding his totals from 2020.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)All Mixed Up
(597 posts)Complacency brought on my incumbency, where a certain amount of voters aren't happy with the current state of the country and therefore less motivated to fight for it. Couple that with the fact Biden doesn't have the same base of support or enthusiasm like an Obama (similar to Hillary) and you can see why things are tough.
Biden isn't cool. Voting Biden isn't cool. I think Obama was able to overcome a lot during his tough reelection because younger voters still liked him. They thought he was cool.
Hillary and Biden don't get that luxury and unlike 2020, Trump Hate might not be enough with him being out of power the last four years.
If I'm Biden, I'm revoking sending anymore money to Israel until they have a strategy that isn't just leveling Gaza. Then I'm looking domestically at what EOs or whatnot can be done to motivate younger voters. Maybe reschedule marijuana..
I also think his tiktok ban is going to hurt him among younger voters without actually winning over support from anyone.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)There are a few million people in Israel, most of them Jewish, and if the world stops supporting them they will be annihilated immediately.
I don't agree with what Netanyahu is doing and neither does Biden, but this is a genuinely complex situation. There are no easy simple solutions, which is why Hamas was armed and encouraged to viciously attack Israel, putting in motion this predictable response by Netanyahu, in an effort to get Trump reelected.
Democracy requires discipline and courage. If we give into knee jerk simplistic thinking we will have a dictatorship.
All Mixed Up
(597 posts)So, if he doesn't, then he's got to start planning for a loss in November. I think a lot of people underestimate how much anger there is toward Israel right now.
Fair or not, he'll own it. That's just how it is.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)You shouldn't believe everything you read on social media.
All Mixed Up
(597 posts)yardwork
(61,712 posts)Some we know about - sanctions on West Bank settlers, other pressures - and some we can't know. I trust that Biden and his administration are doing the best they can in this difficult situation that we did not create.
All Mixed Up
(597 posts)Torchlight
(3,361 posts)fi
Basic LA
(2,047 posts)The kids see the unbearable suffering & cruelty being perpetrated on our dime. They are ashamed & outraged, just as our generation was at the napalmed villages in Vietnam.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)The U.S. was at war in Vietnam. We are not at war with anybody right now.
We support allies all over the world. We can't control everything they do.
Young people protested the war in Vietnam because they didn't want to be drafted. Full stop. This childish effort to cosplay protests of yesteryear when nobody in the U.S. is being drafted is just silly.
Silly and childish.
Basic LA
(2,047 posts)It went beyond the draft. Now what's being drafted is our tax dollars, sent to kill, maim, & starve innocent children. That's not self defense. That's annihilation. We should all be marching in the streets. It's silly & childish to poo poo this abomination.
yardwork
(61,712 posts)There will be a lot more abominations, on a scale many can't imagine, if this foolishness leads to Trump being reelected.
Basic LA
(2,047 posts)But this "foolishness" is dripping with blood. It has to stop now before Trump becomes the beneficiary. (As Nixon was over Humphrey back in our day.)
Qutzupalotl
(14,331 posts)Look at all the elections since. We are outperforming polls because the likely voter model has shifted. Women are more motivated than ever.
Not true. Trump's support has decreased since his indictments and will decrease further upon convictions. Primary results suggest about 1 in 6 Republican primary voters will not support Trump in the general. Biden's support in the primaries is much more solid. Third-party candidates like Kennedy are drawing more support from Republicans than Democrats.
Trump has already lost that much, according to primary results and exit polls.
Trump is having a lot of what appear to be TIAs. People are leaving his speeches while he's still rambling about nonsense. The RNC will funnel all their funds into Trump's legal judgements, leaving downballot candidates to rely on third party contributions. So I'm not as doom-and-gloom as some here.
All Mixed Up
(597 posts)For one, what non-Biden Democrats do is irrelevant because they're not running national campaigns vs Donald Trump (maybe just the idea of MAGA). In reality, Trump has out-performed polling both times he's been on the ballot (2016 and 2020). Both elections indicate that Trump does better than Generic Republicans and why going off polling that doesn't include Trump as a candidate means nothing.
As for the primary results, again irrelevant or at least an incomplete understanding of the data.
Trump's opposition in the primaries are largely tied to Democratic voters crossing over and voting Haley. These are voters who were never going to vote Trump.
In closed primaries, like Texas as an example, Trump is running away with the nomination.
Also, general election polling pretty much consistently shows Trump at his 2020 total, or far closer to it than Biden. And it's much worse when third party candidates are added.
Look at Georgia. In the latest Emerson poll, Trump leads by four when it's a two-person race. But when third party candidates are added, Trump's lead jumps to 7.
I get it. Polls suck. But these margins are big. If they were narrower, I'd buy that polling is too erratic to be taken at face value.
But three Georgia polls have been released the last few weeks with Trump +7 in every one involving a multi-party race. This isn't just polling being off, it would have to be off by a major amount.
And I know there is a narrative that polling was off significantly in 2022. Not true.
Just look at Oz vs Fetterman.
The final polls had Oz up .5 (but there were polls that had Fetterman up).
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/pennsylvania/
So polls were off by five points on average.
And that was the high-end - yet still below Biden's margin vs Trump in Georgia.
In other close states in 2022, the polls were correct in Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
And Georgia:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2022/georgia/walker-vs-warnock-runoff
And off by only 2 points in Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/nevada/
That doesn't even get into the generic ballot in 2022 which matched the total national vote pretty accurately:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
Biden definitely has some work to do.
Qutzupalotl
(14,331 posts)Polls suck, so you cite
more polls?
Fetterman had a stroke, so he and his pre-election polls are hardly indicative. Exit polling showed Dobbs still drove the majority of his support, so my point stands. Dobbs energizes women.
Clearly not true. Not all states were open primaries. And she still won 19% of Republicans in Virginia.
If Biden is in trouble, it certainly is not reflected in primary results.
But since you like polls:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/where-will-nikki-haley-s-supporters-go-now-that-she-s-dropped-out/ar-BB1jqkuv
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/haley-voters-almost-twice-as-likely-to-vote-for-biden-than-trump-poll/ar-BB1jwuTN
Before you pounce yes I am aware we are talking about the share of Haley voters, not all Republicans. But the fact that some Republicans are so disgusted with Trump that they will vote for Biden indicates that Trump is in trouble.
The high command of Team Trump ought to be concerned about unifying the Republican Party, GOP strategist Karl Rove, a key adviser to former President George W. Bush, said on Fox News as Super Tuesday results were being tallied.
There is nothing Trump can do to convince some Republicans to back him, though.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/i-could-never-vote-for-donald-trump-some-haley-voters-spurning-gop-nominee/ar-BB1jDjoT
All Mixed Up
(597 posts)I was being sarcastic about polls sucking - you know, going off what you said about polls being wrong.
But let's jump right into what you have to say!
Huh? You seem to be debating two points here or did you forget to finish a thought?
For what it's worth, 45% of Oz voters said abortion should at least be legal in most cases according to exit polls. So, there are plenty of Republicans voting for anti-choice candidates despite believing in a woman's right to choose.
On top of that, of those who voted in Pennsylvania, Biden had a 54% disapproval rating - including 43% who strongly disapproved. To put that into perspective, on Nov. 8, 2022, Biden's average disapproval nationally was at ... 54%. So, Pennsylvania aligned exactly with Biden's disapproval nationally. Today? His disapproval is 56%. His approval is even worse. On election day, 2022, it was 42% and now it's 40%. So, Biden went from a -12% in approval/disapproval to -16% currently. That means today, despite the contrary, Biden's approval/disapproval is four-points worse than in November 2022.
And guess what? On Nov. 8th, 2022, the day of the midterms, Biden and Trump were tied in the polls.
Today? Trump leads by three-points (almost exactly the margin Biden's approval/disapproval has dipped since then). You know, it's like maybe he lost support (like I said initially).
If Biden is in trouble, it certainly is not reflected in primary results.
By that logic, Biden is in trouble in Minnesota because 28% of Democratic voters voted for someone other than Biden.
I mean, if we really want to get deep in the weeds of this: losing 20% to Uncommitted doesn't look so good as to losing 20% to an actual real-life candidate who's put time and money into campaigning.
And yet in the same poll, in a four-way race, Biden only leads Trump by one-point.
The margins? Biden 38, Trump 37, Kennedy 15.
Going off the 2020 national results, where Biden scores 51% of the national vote to Trump's 47%, Biden is 13 points worse nationally than he did in 2020 and Trump is doing 10 points worse.
Like I said: Biden appears to have lost more support than Trump at this time. The poll you link to pretty much proves my point. Thank you.
At the end of the day, the tangible numbers we have to go on point to Biden doing worse overall to his 2020 total than Trump.
I don't think that really is up for debate. You can tell me that you don't necessarily believe it and that the polls are potentially very wrong, and that's fine, but with the data we have: Biden is struggling shoring up his support.
In the average of polls in a multi-person race, Biden is at 38% and Trump 41%. And that's the average.
Now if you want to question those polls, that's fine. But you can't say they're wrong. You can say you disagree with them. But in head-to-head data, with what we have to go on in reference to Biden and Trump, Biden is doing 13 points worse than he did in 2020 on average and Trump, according to the averages, is only doing six-points worse.
With how narrow 2020 was, the fact Biden only won Wisconsin by 20,682, Georgia by 11,779 and Arizona by 10,457 (for a total of 43,000), there's reason to be worried.
We focus on national polls but the state polls are even worse.
Again, they could be off.
But going back to the end of October 2022 to election day 2022, Fetterman led six polls, Oz led six polls and there was one tie (and if I go back before that, Fetterman leads in pretty much every poll).
My point? There were data points you could look to that suggested Fetterman was well-positioned.
Right now in Pennsylvania? The last poll Biden led in was January when you factor in a three-way race.
It's even worse in Arizona. The last poll Biden led in Arizona was back in April, 2023.
Trump leads Biden by an average of 5 points there currently.
Wisconsin? Biden hasn't led in a poll since October. The last two polls? Trump +3 and Trump +4. It's worse when you factor third party candidates. Trump's lead jumps to an average of 4 points.
Michigan is much the same way: Biden hasn't led in a poll since October. In a two-person race, he trails on average of 3.6 points.
But let's take a look at Michigan since that is a state most think Biden might be vulnerable the most of the states he won because of the Gaza conflict.
Biden's average polling in a two-person race is 42.6%. He won Michigan with 50.5%.
Trump's average polling is 46%. Trump won 47.7% in 2020 there.
So, Trump is doing about 1.7 points worse. Biden is doing about 8 points worse.
Why is Biden doing worse? Because of what I said initially: he has lost more support compared to 2020 than Trump did.
I don't think he's losing his support to Trump. I do think he risks losing it to a third party.
And guess what? Trump won Michigan with 47% of the vote in 2016.
Or basically where's polling now.
That's the concern if you're Biden's camp. He has to figure out a way to win over some very frustrated voters. And you can say Roe will do it - and maybe it will - but it's not showing in the polls right now. A lot of these voters are saying it doesn't matter.
Like I said, polling could be off. But polling wasn't that off in 2022 and while Democrats have won a lot of special elections, most have been won in Democratic-leaning districts. You know, like Tom Suozzi a few weeks ago.
Polling had him winning. He did win by a larger margin than polls indicated. But polls did say he was going to win. And we don't quite know the end margin because New York takes FOREVER to finalize their totals (right now, the only numbers I can find were from 93% reporting).
But New York's 3rd congressional district is a lean-Democratic district. Yes, Santos carried it in 2022 but Suozzi won this district back in 2020 over Santos 56-39.
It's a district Biden carried by ten-points in 2020.
It's a swing-lean Democratic district.
I don't know how much you can go off those results.
Ultimately, the polls indicate Biden has lost more support than Trump. The question at the end of the day will be how much more. Biden can afford to lose support. Trump can't. But Biden also had a very narrow win in 2020 where turnout was extremely high and people extremely motivated to vote.
I don't see that motivation as of now.
At least toward Biden.
Hopefully that changes between now and November. I think it can. But Biden has to be proactive with his messaging. If he keeps doing what he did last week, he'll likely motivate more and more voters.
But it would be foolish to ignore the warning signs of the polls. Right now, they're telling us a huge chunk of Biden 2020 voters are not sold on him just yet.
BannonsLiver
(16,468 posts)10/10
Elessar Zappa
(14,077 posts)I bet Biden will get over 60% of young people to vote for him. Hows that?
iluvtennis
(19,875 posts)they also understand the bigger picture of how dangerous TSF is -- they are voting for Biden.
pstokely
(10,530 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 12, 2024, 10:40 PM - Edit history (2)
maybe you can cast a protest vote in NY, CA, or AL but not WI
iluvtennis
(19,875 posts)Bluesaph
(717 posts)See it amongst my 20-30 somethings and their friends. Quite scary.
Happy Hoosier
(7,393 posts)And how they think Trump being President is going to help Palestinians?
MenloParque
(512 posts)Im seeing more and more of these types in Northern California. Of course complete with Palestine decals on their 4x4s. Whats dangerous is a lot of these fuckers have tik toks and young men follow these gun worshipping douches. Things are really odd right now in San Francisco even with young girls of color wearing pro gun apparel. Whats going on?!! The US needs Joe!!
yardwork
(61,712 posts)Childishness, emotional knee jerk responses, a sense of superiority and entitlement accompanied by resentments.
betsuni
(25,638 posts)Bannon:
"I believe we will destroy the Democratic Party as a national institution. You'll have the progressive party. A populist uprising of Hispanics, African-Americans and working class people."
Uygur:
"But maybe the left-wing and the right-wing should consider uniting on economic issues against corporate rule. We agree a lot more than people realize on those issues."
Transform Trump Republicans (or a third party) into the working class, anti-war progressive party. All about hating the Democratic Party.
themaguffin
(3,826 posts)IcyPeas
(21,910 posts)that is unbiased and that they will believe?
Best_man23
(4,907 posts)If the Tik-Tok generation thinks Inmate P01135809 will treat the Palestinians better, they will have bigly buyer's remorse coming their way if their vote 3rd party or don't vote at all.
Response to Metaphorical (Original post)
traitorsgalore This message was self-deleted by its author.
TheKentuckian
(25,029 posts)has been normalized since the first war and every war since for thousands of years.
The thought that there is anything else is a delusion completely unsupported by history or even logic.
How do these mystical civilian safe wars even work, especially one where one side practices the use of human shields and hostage taking?
They need to read some history and comprehend warfare.
These twits seem to have never dealt with any that actually meant them harm and "fighting" means arguing.
The most conflict they have any understanding of is some hitting between siblings in the third seat of mom's SUV which is why they can be bullied to the point of suicide from some bullshit on the internet that they can end by logging out.
Soft, ignorant, and stupid.
maxsolomon
(33,400 posts)My Millenial daughter thinks Biden is complicit in genocide. Can't be swayed; thinks the US should shitcan our 75-year alliance with Israel. She's quite well-read on the Nakba, etc. She's still going to vote for him.
My Gen Z NYC niece thinks Biden is complicit in genocide. She's in NYC, so she can do whatever the hell she wants (when she was in SF, she voted for Nancy Pelosi's Progressive opponent). She can't be swayed off this position, either.
My Gen Z MA & OH nieces are Jewish and went on Birthright in Israel last summer. If they'd gone this year they might have been at that festival. Pretty sure they think Israel has a right to exist and will vote for Biden.
littlemissmartypants
(22,819 posts)Walk away like you can't be bothered. Maybe that will start their wheels turning in their brains.
Otherwise, I've got nothin'. Good luck! ❤️
pstokely
(10,530 posts)or do they live in a solid Blue or Red state and feel safe casting a protest vote? do they care about other issues?
pstokely
(10,530 posts)or are they in a solid Red or Blue State?
TexasDem69
(1,836 posts)Not to mention Democrats buying into this propaganda. Israel is a democracy, one of the few in the Middle East, and one of a handful of the U.S.s dependable allies. Hamas is solely responsible for the deaths in Gaza, and Hamas must accept full responsibility.
OutNow
(868 posts)Hubert Humphrey lost in 1968 because he supported the war in Vietnam. So we got Nixon. A horrible result. Well, here we are again folks. Biden may lose the election because he supports Israeli genocide in Gaza. Hopefully we won't have a rerun of 1968. The obvious solution is to stop supporting the right wing Israeli government's genocide in Gaza.
Yes the Republicans are evil, etc. etc. etc. and must not be allowed to win in November. But attacking young people's desire to support the Palestinians is a losing strategy. I heard the same crap in 1967/68 - the Vietcong were communists, they must be defeated to stop the spread of communism, blah blah blah.
It's not young people that are the problem. It's Biden's policy that is the problem. He can change the policy.