SLATE: Trump and Biden Should Both Be Terrified of the Third-Party Vote

[WarGamer]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/03/rfk-jr-third-party-cornel-west-jill-stein.html

I don't get the DOOM-CASTING from reliably LEFT Democratic sources.

Other than Perot, it has been at least a century since a third-party candidate had a realistic chance at becoming president, and that won’t change this year. But Kennedy’s outsider campaign has to worry the Biden camp.

For one thing, Kennedy is polling better than any third-party candidate in a generation, sitting at 15 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of a three-way race as of March 11. Those numbers are almost certainly soft, but there’s no getting around the enduring (and I would argue unfathomable) appeal of the Kennedy brand and the fact that dissatisfaction with the two major-party nominees is so broad that it seems as if you can throw any famous last name out there and hit double digits. The fact that Kennedy SuperPAC American Values 2024 spent $7 million on an ad during the Super Bowl suggests that the campaign intends to go all the way to November.

It is no longer particularly far-fetched to think that Donald Trump’s restoration is possible—perhaps even more likely than not, given President Joe Biden’s dreadful polling numbers as of Monday. Those polls, already a fairly accurate snapshot of what is likely to happen in November, get more predictive by the day from here on out. But thus far, most analysis of the election has focused almost exclusively on the two widely disliked elderly men who are all but assured of claiming the Democratic and Republican nominations, especially after their romps through the Super Tuesday contests. But a number of other candidates and parties are in the process of getting on November’s ballot, and for the first time in almost 20 years, one of them is consistently polling in double digits. That’s to say nothing of the independent organization No Labels, which has yet to identify a standard-bearer after getting spurned by Sen. Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan, a former Republican governor of Maryland; No Labels announced on Friday that it would press forward with its presidential bid. The combination of historic unpopularity for the major-party nominees, the presence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling well enough to get into the televised debates, and an unusually large slate of other third-party candidates could make this the wildest, most unpredictable presidential election in living memory.

[Kingofalldems]

1. Bad things about Democrats.

[WarGamer]

2. Hmmmmm

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Which is why Dem dark money PACs must destroy Kennedy

If 2024 margins are similar to 2020’s, all it would take is for RFK, Stein and No Labels each to peel off 2,000 Biden voters in AZ, GA and WI (easily done with 5 million + votes in each state), and Trump wins.

BTW, I dont think RFK is on the ballot in more than a handful of swing states.

AZ, GA, HI, NV, NH, UT so far. Can he get on enough ballots to mathematically win 270 EV’s if he wins every state?

Doubtful.

The main purpose of his campaign is to flip GA and AZ and perhaps WI or NV to Trump or create a tie so the house.

[WarGamer]

4. Many other States, like MI just ask for signatures... 30k and he's in.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. All the more reason to completely destroy him now. Nt

[WarGamer]

7. Or just tie him to Trump.

point out the GOP funding of his campaign.

Make it impossible for him to get votes of anyone on the Left. Then he hurts Trump more.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. I would prefer to see him bankrupt, unemployable, divorced and driven from public life

To serve as a warning for anyone else who would seek to enable fascism to destroy America.

[TwilightZone]

6. Several things wrong with that reasoning.

There is certainly a threat, but I think "should be terrified" is mostly hyperbole. But then...Slate.

Third party candidates almost always start strong, then fade. There's little reason to believe the RFK Jr. won't do the same, especially as more people learn that he's an anti-vax, conspiracy theorist, loon running a vanity campaign.

Kennedy is not at +15. He's at +12.9. Two of the three most-recent polls have him in single digits. The coming weeks will start to demonstrate if he has any staying power. He may drop out of debate contention before there are even any debates scheduled.

Also, as the election draws closer, I think many voters who might have otherwise supported Kennedy and the others as a protest vote will come to grips with the consequences of this election and vote accordingly. Not all, of course, but a significant chunk, especially Kennedy supporters.

"The fact that Kennedy SuperPAC American Values 2024 spent $7 million on an ad during the Super Bowl suggests that the campaign intends to go all the way to November."

No, it doesn't. Haley spent more than $100 million and she's out. If his support drops significantly, as it almost certainly will, his financial support will also wane.

West and Stein are vanity candidates. While they pose a potential threat in close states, they're also known quantities.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. All he and the other third party nuts need is just 2,000 votes apiece in AZ, GA, and WI

And Trump wins, assuming 2024 margins are close to 2020’s.

[TwilightZone]

14. They need net votes, not total votes.

That also presumes that Stein and West voters would have voted for Biden if they were not in the race. I'm not sure that's entirely true, but for the sake of argument, let's say they would have. If that's the case, they need to be accounted for, but I don't think there's much we can do to sway them that wouldn't already be done.

There doesn't seem to be a consensus yet on where RFK's votes will come from. Some polls indicate that more are coming from Trump than Biden. Others say the opposite. Kennedy would need to draw more Biden voters than Trump ones to be a problem for Biden in those states. I think he's going to appeal more to right-leaners, but that's just an educated guess, based on his views and who his target audience appears to be.

[womanofthehills]

15. According to the latest GA poll - 3/12 Emerson Poll

Not good news but it’s still early.

Biden vs Trump - Biden 42, Trump 46

Add in Stein, West & Kennedy

Stein 1, West 2, Kennedy 5
- Biden 37, Trump 44



https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/georgia

[SWBTATTReg]

10. Here we go again w/ the SCREAMING headlines 'Terrified'! Good grief, tone it down, it's nothing like that.

Good grief, are news outlets that desperate for readers/clicks?

[WarGamer]

11. News outlets... online, TV cable... all of them are desparate.

There's NOTHING that a writer or host or guest won't say for ratings.

[SWBTATTReg]

12. I swear, you got that right! When I see headlines like this, I run away!

[WarGamer]

13. Every talking head that claimed the CO Ballot case was a slam dunk should wear a Dunce hat ON AIR.