Californians were scammed by high speed rail

[ripcord]

When high speed rail was proposed it was supposed to cost $33 billion to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles and be finished by now, that was all a lie.The reality is that they are hoping to finish a 171 mile section between 2030 and 2034, this small section will cost $35 billion then to finish the L.A. to Frisco route will cost an additional $100 billion with no estimate of completion.

The high speed rail line to Vegas is expected to complete their 212 mileine by 2027 with an estimated cost of $12 billion. I expect them to come close to these estimates as they have successfully built and are operating high-speed in the U.S.already. This line will originate at the Rancho Cucamonga Metrorail station so it will connect the High Desert to public transportation.

There will be a lot of questions when the Vegas line is up and running, hopefully they will lead to a complete audit and investigation into the California High Speed Rail Authority and this complete boondoggle.

[questionseverything]

1. We can't keep slow moving freight trains on the tracks

So I don’t understand the high speed push

[tinrobot]

2. Different tracks, for one.

[WarGamer]

3. some of us have been saying this all along...

[Yavin4]

4. Blame the NIMBYs. n/t

[stopdiggin]

5. sorry that this has become botched

Because I for one think that high speed rail has a lot to offer. (while the U.S. is well behind in rolling it out) Much, much rather spend my 5 (5+?) hours on a train - rather than snaking through security lines, praying the airline actually has a flight crew to crew my flight, and then subsequently sitting on the tarmac for hours - at some bedlam ridden airport.

To my way of thinking ... No contest!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

[ripcord]

6. That is why I highlighted both projects

One is being done right and the other is FUBAR.

[Wonder Why]

45. Totally different territory and way of thinkingl

Brightline doesn't face the NIMBYIES to Vegas. Brightline will put stations where it brings in the most money and buy up the surrounding area ahead of time to insure it. Lot fewer environmental issues. No dealing with cities and their politicians who will demand stations in their area before supporting it in Sacramento or DC. No need to sell the idea to every resident and promise everything to everybody. They're own money and skin are in the game.

I'll bet their pay scale is much lower.

[Joinfortmill]

52. Love high speed rail. We could take a lesson from other countries.

[Arthur_Frain]

7. How come this works elsewhere?

But not here? How come we can’t have nice things?

[Caribbeans]

11. For the last 30+ years

the United States of War has blown trillions on war, drones, surveillance?

Guess who does have the world's leading HSR



a little history

https://www.gov1.com/economic-development/articles/how-did-china-become-strong-in-high-speed-rail-MvZhPYgfL9d6eDX6/

Maybe there's another pipeline to blow up somewhere

[Voltaire2]

28. The Chinese HSR system is stunningly good. NT.

[Kaleva]

42. Not from what I've read

The system is very deep in debt and the system doesn't generate enough revenue to cover costs let alone make profit.

[Voltaire2]

43. I'm sure you think that is somehow relevant.

It's public infrastructure, not private enterprise. Under the Chinese system the distinction is frequently not clear cut. Anyway I don't care if the system is profitable. The train stations in the big cities were new, clean, easy to navigate for foreigners, and the train service was excellent.

[Kaleva]

46. There are problems

https://factsanddetails.com/china/cat13/sub86/item1848.html

[Voltaire2]

48. Ok. Many complicated human organizations 'have problems', probably all of them.

Our rail systems are utter shit, for example. The point is that from the perspective of a person using the Chinese HSR system, it is great.

[Kaleva]

44. China's HSR is a white elephant

It's getting worse by the year as the CCP mandates lines continue to be built. HSR in rural areas that don't carry enough passengers to cover costs.

[MichMan]

57. Unlike the US, China knows how to handle NIMBYs n/t

[ripcord]

12. We are getting high speed rail

Brightline the company building the route to Las Vegas runs high speed rail very successfully in Florida. The ballot measure for California's high speed rail project said 75% of the cost would be paid for by the federal government and private investors, not one dime of private money has been invested, if this is going to be such a huge success you think there would be people rushing to invest.

[Conjuay]

24. I question your contention it is successful in. FL

and only sections are high speed.

[Wonder Why]

40. it's not HSR. Fastest speed is less than Acela though average may be higher.

[vanlassie]

21. Well, I live in the heart of California's Central Valley

and this is not a population of people who have experienced much travel, for starters. They don’t realize that many parts of the developed world have advanced transportation systems. They complained bitterly that a rail road track would literally destroy their rural way of life. They managed to force delays while the cost estimates naturally rose. Then they had more fuel for their fire. Complex issues about air quality are seemingly beyond their comprehension.
I choose to ride Amtrak back and forth to the Bay Area and it is good- certainly not great- mainly because rail freight rules and people have to pull over and give way. Very different from Europe and other sophisticated parts of the world.

[Retrograde]

8. And yet other countries

managed to do this decades ago.

[brooklynite]

10. Other countries don't make it as easy to hold things up in Court.

Most corridors don't have Government land for the ROW readily available.

[Wonder Why]

41. Shorter distance. Less anti-rail, fewer NIMBYies, less wasteful practices

and decades earlier. And so much more.

[brooklynite]

9. Building through empty desert is easier than building through developed farmland and cities.

Neither project will be successful, because neither project will provide a city to city link any time soon (how many high rollers will take an uber to RANCHO CUCAMONGA?)

[Johonny]

13. A lot

The highway between LA to Vegas is heavily traveled. People will ride this rail. Particularly come football season with the Raiders now in Vegas.

[ripcord]

14. High rollers were never the target

The important thing about Rancho Cucamonga is that it is a connection to the Metrolink system that will allow people from all over Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San bernardino and San Diego Counties to get to Vegas by train. They take the Metro train from local areas to where they are switch to high speed rail, this will take a ton of cars off the road on weekends and during the week people in the High Desert can take high speed rail to connect to the Metro for their commute taking even more cars off the roads.

[brooklynite]

15. I'm well aware of the commuter rail link (I'm a retired Transportation Planner)

But the HSR systems everyone lusts over go city center to city center.

[ripcord]

17. I will be happy taking a large number of cars off the road

The traffic from L.A. to Las Vegas on Raider game weekends was insane, I wouldn't be surprised if most of those people take the train, driving back from Vegas with a hangover sucks, not that I would know from personal experience. This might not be everyone's dream but it is practical and will probably be a very successful route.

[miyazaki]

16. Any info as to when they might link

Metrolink with the Coachella Valley?

[ripcord]

18. Unfortunately it looks like 10 years or more

https://la.urbanize.city/post/la-coachella-rail-line-nabs-5-million-federal-funding

[tinrobot]

20. You can take Metrolink from Downtown LA to Rancho Cucamonga.

Then transfer to Brightline.

And the small number of "high rollers" won't take this. It will, however, help those who can't drive or are smart enough to avoid the traffic nightmares known as I-10 and I-15.

[brooklynite]

22. And you can take Metro-North to New Haven to catch the Acela to Boston...

...but the appeal is catching it in midtown Manhattan;

[tinrobot]

50. Sure, but that connection was built 100+ years ago.

When land was cheap and rail was king. LA would have to find 40-50 miles of right of way through some of the most expensive real estate in the country. Not the same thing at all.

Brightline gives LA a foothold that can be improved in the future. With this, you'll be able to go 300+ miles from the beach to Vegas completely by rail. Sure, there's a transfer or two, but whatever.

So your criticisms are noted, but not very productive

[brooklynite]

53. One thing you learn in the planning biz...

…is that passengers HATE to transfer.

[tinrobot]

54. Do you also learn that right of ways are expensive...

...and local landowners are litigious?

[brooklynite]

55. Absolutely. Which is why I think BUILDING Brightline West will be easier than CalHSR...

...and both projects will have flaws limiting their appeal to riders.

nb: I actually prepared a seminar in 2022 on "The Future of High Speed Rail in America" (including these, Texas and Amtrak's NEC Vision). The gist of the presentation was: "don't get your hopes up".

[Xolodno]

19. Blame the GOP in California.

They sued over everything and I mean everything. They did everything in their power to run up the cost of this, even in GOP cities that wanted it. They even sued to route it through Gorman instead of Palmdale (which could connect to the Brightline project later) just so they could delay it, force another costly study that could have been used on the project, etc. They should have put a poison pill in the legislation, if your lawsuit delays and increases the cost of the project, then you have to eat the increase. That would have put a stop to a lot of lawsuits, instead, there was no incentive to not file a lawsuit after lawsuit, even though you know it would lose.

They rallied the people in between Fresno and Bakersfield, same people who put up signs that say "Food grows where water flows", don't believe there is ever a drought and just need more dams, piss and moan they have to allow rivers to flow through to the sea again, use up their entire allotment of water for their farms (as they always believe if they don't, they will get less next year), grow water intensive crops, etc. And used them to fight to stop every inch of development.

Now its stupid to not finish it as it will cost more to dismantle what they have done. The train is needed, you have people commuting from Bakersfield to LA for work now.

[dalton99a]

23. It'll cost 10 trillions when finished

[Auggie]

25. Money would have better spent on regional projects

SoCal and S.F. Bay Area, specifically.

[Zeitghost]

35. This is the correct answer

The money could have been used to improve regional lite rails, Amtrack, EV charging networks, and other green transportation projects. That would have made a real difference.

As it stands now, we are going to have a high speed rail from Shafter to Merced...

[Auggie]

38. I voted against it. Myopic Schwarzenegger was for it.

Thanks

[Initech]

26. In today's chapter of "why can't we have nice things in this country?"....

[DBoon]

27. Wong

High speed rail is entirely necessary. Highways and the airport system cannot handle the traffic between west coast urban areas.

Increase in costs is entirely due to NIMBYs obstructing public infrastructure. These same folks would oppose ANY public infrastructure improvements.

While you use the word "boondoggle", you present no evidence of corruption here.

Completing bot high speed rail projects is necessary for the future of California and of the west coast. The success of high speed rail in other countries proves this.

[Voltaire2]

29. It is classic FUD. I think people are mostly unaware that

they are regurgitating propaganda generated by agents of the plutocracy in order to defend their wealth and power. But perhaps I am overly optimistic about people.

[ripcord]

36. The proof of a boondoggle is the difference between the ballot measure authorozation and facts

The approved measure set a budget of $33 billion, the current estimate is $135 billion and climbing. The approved completion date was 2028, currently a 171 miles section is scheduled to be finished in 2030-2032 with no estimate for the entire project to be finished. And finally the ballot measure set a travel time of 2:40 minutes for a one way trip, now the high speed rail trains will be sharing track part of the route and there is no chance it will meet that time and with all the money being spent it isn't even true high speed rail.

[DBoon]

39. Same is true of any other large public works project

Cost is being driven up by the obstruction of landowners and other political opponents, not because of deception by the original proponents. Same would be true for expansion of major airports, the main alternative to high speed rail. If it is a boondoggle. it is because the opponents of this project have abused the legal system to slow construction.

High speed rail has proven its worth in many other countries. Its problems in the US are entirely political, and have nothing to do with technical issues or with the proven economics benefits of a completed system.

[MenloParque]

30. I was on board when it was originally proposed as a high-speed SF-LA rail. When they started talking Central Valley

That’s when things really got off the rails. I have no desire to go to either Fresno or Bakersfield.

[hunter]

31. The line from Bakersfield to Sacramento is going to be a megacity someday...

... possibly one of the wealthiest and most politically powerful regions of the U.S.A..

That future scares some people.

[demosincebirth]

32. It was a money pit from the start. As much as I admired Jerry Brown, he pushed

it from the start, as governor

[Jacson6]

33. I can get a plane ticket to SF from LA for $50

And be there in a hour. Why would I take a train that last for hours?

[hunter]

49. High speed rail is powered by electricity, not filthy jet fuel.

And it's a lot more comfortable.

The windows are bigger too.

[tinrobot]

51. It's not about LA-SF. It's about connecting those cities to the rest of the state.

Specifically, the Central Valley. It's about Bakersfield, Fresno, and all the cities in the middle to connecting either LA or SF. Those cities are still hard to get to without a car.

Once they connect those up, that area will boom.

[stopdiggin]

56. perhaps the 2+ hours that are burned on security,

boarding, and sitting on the tarmac - and all the other lovely bits that grace today's 'air travel' experience?
(many would much rather take a stiff beating - although, granted, in large part as in so many other things - we've gradual accustomed ourselves to the abuse)

Riding the rails is, overall, 100 times less miserable and migraine inducing. And then of course there's the footprint ...

[republianmushroom]

34. You got that right.

Yup, totally, Californians were scammed by high speed rail

[mahina]

37. Honolulu is worse, rail-wise

(It was going to cost 5 billion !?! But now will cost 10 billion- and this is not borne statewide but is just a City and County of Honolulu cost, i.e. Oʻahu. Suuuucks.)

Honolulu Rail Is Still Waiting For The Feds To Release Large Chunks of Money
21
HART had hoped $125 million would quickly be released last year to help fund the $10 billion project but now expects that money won't arrive until December.
https://www.civilbeat.org/2023/08/honolulu-rail-is-still-waiting-for-the-feds-to-release-large-chunks-of-money/

The Honolulu rail authority’s long wait for some promised federal funding will likely drag on until the end of this year, which would be a year longer than the city expected.

Members of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation were presented with a financial update Thursday that disclosed that $125 million in federal funding — money HART officials expected to receive last December — will probably not arrive until this December.

City officials signed an agreement with the federal government in 2012 that called for $1.55 billion in federal funding to help finance the city rail line. However, $744 million of that federal money has been held up since 2014 as the Honolulu rail project suffered years of delays and gigantic cost overruns.

The $125 million is the first chunk of that $744 million, and the balance won’t be available until even later.

Rick Keene, deputy executive director and chief operating officer for HART, told the HART finance committee that even with that delay in federal funding, “we still have adequate cash flow, adequate anticipated balances to fund all of our expenditures.”

Last year HART won approval from the Federal Transit Administration for the city’s latest “recovery plan,” which spells out how the project will be completed.

The recovery plan included some major changes, such as halting the rail line at South Street. The original 2012 agreement called for the line to extend from East Kapolei beyond South Street to Ala Moana Center, but the city opted to truncate the line to cut costs.

The FTA accepted the city recovery plan on Sept. 30, raising hopes that the $125 million tranche of federal funding would quickly be released. But the FTA is requiring an amended “full funding grant agreement” be finalized between FTA and the city before it releases any of the long-awaited $744 million.

Ten months later, that full funding grant agreement still hasn’t been approved.

HART still needs to complete a number of steps to finalize the new grant agreement, including clearing a federal environmental “re-evaluation” of the so-called “Mauka Shift” of the rail guideway along Dillingham Boulevard, officials said.

The Mauka Shift involves slightly re-routing the rail line along Dillingham to avoid utilities in the area, which should help cut costs. HART plans to submit the documentation required for that environmental re-evaluation to the FTA this month, according to a written update on the project.

Keene told the HART finance committee on Thursday that the transfer of that $125 million to HART might be delayed even longer, and could slip into early next year.

HART expects to receive the next $250 million in federal funding next year. The FTA is requiring that the city award a contract for construction of the final three-mile segment of elevated guideway through the city center and the last six rail stations before FTA will release that money.

The city rail project was expected to cost about $5.2 billion when the full funding grant agreement was signed in 2012, and construction was supposed to be completed by 2020.

Since then the anticipated cost of the project has ballooned to nearly $10 billion including interest charges, and completion of the shortened rail line is now expected in spring of 2031. The first half of the rail line — nearly 11 miles — opened on June 30.

[honest.abe]

47. We have same issue here in Maryland. The Purple Line light rail costs have more than doubled from initial estimates.

However I dont believe we were scammed. A big part of it were NIMBY homeowners filing law suites that delayed everything from starting over a year. That added enormous cost upfront which then ballooned over time. The other issue was major complications building a rail through dense urban areas. I would say those estimating the cost were at fault here since they should have been aware of this but in a bidding contest, bidders tend to be overly optimistic to come out the winner.