Young people: increasingly diverging politically, women becoming more liberal, men move towards more conservative views

[Celerity]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/changing-fortunes-drive-young-womens-votes-left-and-mens-right-c7tqcndgd

https://web.archive.org/web/20240403032034/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/changing-fortunes-drive-young-womens-votes-left-and-mens-right-c7tqcndgd



Young people are increasingly diverging politically, with women becoming more liberal and men more likely to be conservative, researchers have revealed. Two decades ago there was little difference between men and women aged 18 to 29 when asked to place themselves on a scale of one to ten signifying “very liberal” to “very conservative”. But an analysis of 20 wealthy countries carried out by The Economist discovered that by 2020 the gap had grown to 0.75 on the scale. The gap between men and women in Britain was 0.71. The study found that young men in 2020 were only slightly more likely to describe themselves as liberal than as conservative, with a gap of only two percentage points. However, young women were much more likely to lean to the left than the right, with a gap of 27 percentage points. In all the large countries examined by the magazine, young men were more conservative than young women. The gap between the sexes was roughly twice the size of the gap in opinion between people with and without a degree in the same year.

Alice Evans, a senior lecturer in the social science of development at King’s College London, said the change was driven by several social factors. They included a more feminised public culture, economic resentment, social media bubbles and the impact of cultural entrepreneurs. Evans, who is writing a book called The Great Gender Divergence, told The Times: “Rising university enrolment has motivated increased competition. It means that not all men can get to the top — and men care about getting to the top. “We also know that, simultaneously, many young women are choosing to stay single, so it’s also harder for young guys to attract girlfriends. Both of these things, which men really care about, have become so much harder and that is triggering resentment.” That resentment, Evans argued, is causing some young men to harden their attitudes against certain groups, such as women and foreigners.

This can mean they are more likely to turn their support to right-wing parties, have the opinion that women’s rights have gone too far or be attuned to extreme social media personalities such as Andrew Tate. Meanwhile, women continue on in today’s “culturally liberalising” society, where it is more acceptable than ever not to marry or start a family. Researchers at The Economist used the European Social Survey, America’s General Social Survey and the Korean Social Survey to examine 20 rich nations, including the UK. The study found that young men were more anti-feminist than older men, contradicting the popular notion that each generation is more liberal than the previous one.

Figures from the Financial Times in January showed a 25-point gap in the UK between increasingly conservative young men and progressive female contemporaries. Germany showed a 30-point gap, while in Poland last year almost half of men aged 18 to 21 backed the hard-right Confederation party, compared to a sixth of young women. In the United States, women aged 18 to 30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male contemporaries, a gap that took only six years to open up. Evans said that due to Brexit and the unpopularity of the present Conservative government, young men in Britain were less likely to be driven to the extreme right politically. But, she added: “Certainly in other European countries, young men are more likely to turn to the far right.”

snip

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Incel fever wonders why they're alone

[Diamond_Dog]

2. Many young men

Are less college-educated and out-earned by their female contemporaries and they don’t like it one bit. Add that many young women aren’t interested in getting married and having a bunch of kids. They just can’t keep us down any more!

[hlthe2b]

9. So many horror stories of DV and divorce--why would these women NOT consider having children on their own?

If they can afford a live-in au pair or have family members to help then they have options that do not necessarily include these men. Not exactly the "romantic" ideal that so many grew up on, but... (and no, I'm not advocating anything except that part of becoming an "adult" is to consider the future and its repercussions and I see young women increasingly doing so).

[Lovie777]

3. Gosh..........................

same story different day and the outcome from recent elections say otherwise.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Sky Jewels]

4. Male insecurity is historically the cause of most trouble in this world.

It has caused untold wars and is also the driving force behind the stupid and misogynistic Big Three Middle Eastern-originated monotheisms, which feature only male magical beings as the primary characters, particularly Yahweh/God/Allah, the cruel asshole grand poohbah sky wizard who is toxic masculinity personified. Men were so insecure that they had to make up these idiotic myths to reinforce that only males could be powerful, omnipotent magical beings who rule the entire universe. Women have been paying the price for century after century.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. I reject the blanket characterization of the headline, at least for young voters in the US

Show me the data.

In the US, the data has shown repeatedly that under 30 voters, regardless of gender support progressive policies and politicians 2 to 1 over conservatives.

This trend has only strengthened as more teens reach voting age.

[Celerity]

8. 2022 exit polls (and this was post Roe v Wade being overturned)

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house/20

Men

Women

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. Here is the data without gender segregation:

?w=640

2022 Voters 18-29 supported Dems over Republicans 68-31 (more than 2 to 1).

Although the 2022 margin shrank from the 2018 margin (and turnout declined), post-Dobbs it increased dramatically between 2020 and 2022. My recollection is that 2 to 1 margin has been sustained in the special and local elections since the 2022 midterms.

Surveys of young voters on policies, rather than partisan or candidate support continue to show overwhelming support for progressive policies.

Remember: the 2024 pool of young voters is drastically different than the pool of young voters in 2018 or 2020, as 4 million 18 year olds have become eligible to vote every year since 2020- that’s 16 million new young voters.

[Celerity]

12. but the point is there IS a gender-based divergence manifesting itself, in the 20 nations surveyed, the US included

Removing gender from the figures removes the very data that shows the gender divergence.

Look at my age cohort (25 to 29, I had just turned 26yo a couple of weeks before the 2022 midterms):

Women in my age cohort voted +53 Democratic

Men in my age cohort voted only +10 Democratic

That is a massive 43 point gap.

Broaden it out to 18-29 yos:

Women in the 18 to 29yo cohort voted Democratic +46

Men in the 18 to 29yo cohort voted Democratic +11

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. But that breakdown is at odds with the non-gender-segregated data

Assuming an approximate 50/50 split among the electorate, the +11 margin for men and +46 margin for women in your survey averages to a +28 margin for the entire age group, regardless of gender, which is significantly lower than the +37 margin obtained by Pew.

See what I’m getting at?

While there may indeed be measurable differences in Democratic support between young men and young women, the difference may be overblown in the survey you quoted.

I guess comparing the sample size between Pew and the other survey you quoted might help clarify things.

Edit: it appear the CNN survey sampled about 1,000 fewer men than women.

[Celerity]

15. The divergence is clearly there, we can ague to what exact level, but it is stark.

I see it ALL the time in my personal 18 to 34yo (majority) social set, internationally-based (including many Americans, both those living there and also expats living all over the globe).

I feel absolutely confident in saying that, on balance, young men have drifted more to the RW than my fellow young women have, to a fairly significant degree.

[Fiendish Thingy]

16. Is it significant enough that Dems shouldn't target young men for GOTV?

I’m not sure the data is showing a shift stark enough to support that strategy, especially if the young men targeted for GOTV are urban, college educated POC.

[Celerity]

17. non sequitur

Is it significant enough that Dems shouldn't target young men for GOTV?

No one is remotely suggesting that, in fact I advocate for the opposite.

[Fiendish Thingy]

18. Then what is the significance?

Just trying to nail down what the point of all this data is.

My point has been that young voters are the greatest untapped reservoir of predictable votes for Democrats, far more predictable than “economically anxious” white boomers in swing state diners, whom consultants seem to continue to recommend wasting resources on rather than increasing turnout of young voters.

[Celerity]

20. the point is we have work to do

[jcgoldie]

6. oooo

[Sympthsical]

7. An inevitable result of tribalistic identitarian politics

But I'm tired of discussing the reactionary social politics that have rendered everything so toxic. There's no point. The ideology now has the pigmentation of religion, and people do not get reasoned out of their religion.

We're just going to enjoy this for another generation or so until people learn there is no destroying the other side of whatever topic we're on about today. We're all in this together, and we can either strive to work together, or we can drag each other down into the Pit.

Right now, as a society and as political movements based on tribalism, we're choosing the Pit.

Enjoy, everyone. It's going really well so far.

[angrychair]

11. So equity and inclusion have limits?

It's about privilege. Specifically, male privilege. More likely than not, white male privilege.

I'm so damn sick and tired of a bunch of crybabies that are mad that the girl didn't want to date them and mad the black guy got the promotion.
Get over yourself. Stop complaining. Equity, by definition, will impact the privilege you have enjoyed your whole life. Be a better human.

[Oneironaut]

14. People are getting crazier bc they're more isolated.

Everything is online now. No need to talk to human beings, half of them being female. You can even order food and have it silently delivered without human contact, a notion that would have been laughed at 2 decades ago.

Naturally people (especially young men) get lonely and look for attention online in the worst places.

This is all a mistake. Humans aren’t supposed to be atomized this much. It’s causing radicalization, anti-social behavior, and depression. I’m afraid for the future.

[Elessar Zappa]

19. That's a strange trend.

Usually young people are more liberal, including men although not to the extent women are. I’m pretty sure in my own generation (millennials) that the majority of 18-24 voted for Obama. But maybe I’m wrong, I can’t recall if I’ve ever seen the exact breakdown.

[radius777]

21. European definitions of liberal and conservative

differ from ours, so I'm not sure what to make of these studies, other than there is an ideological gender divide of some kind that is growing. The shift amongst young men seems to be more towards an anti-establishment and authoritarian right - not towards traditional conservative right. Some of these shifts historically would be viewed as left wing (ie, protectionism, isolationism, etc) or simply fascist (nativism, ethnonationalism).