March Jobs Report crushes expectations, 303,000 jobs added, 3.8% UE

[Johnny2X2X]

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Wage growth still much higher than inflation at 4.1%. Joe Biden is a job creation machine.

January revised up 27,000 to 256,000. February revised down 5,000 from 275,000 to 270,000.

That's over 900,000 jobs added the last 3 months. Reminder, Donald Trump lost jobs during his term, but even before Covid hit, he was averaging just 166,000 jobs added a month.

THE ECONOMY IS BOOMING!!!

[bucolic_frolic]

1. This is why the Fed went hawkish yesterday

You don't need rate cuts in a booming economy.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Possibly

I think they're going to have to cut rates by June because the inflation data will demand it and the pressure to do so if the inflation data keeps improving will be too much not to.

The risk of course is an overheated economy that might fall back down to earth in 2025.

Politically, we get 2 rate cuts before Novemeber and it's going to be the strongest economy that any president has ever had to run for re-election on.

[BootinUp]

3. To me it read like speculation with no new inflation information.

We need to see actual inflation data.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. We just saw inflation data last week.

PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is 2.5%.

[BootinUp]

6. the current trend is somewhat murky due to recent data Jan/Feb where

Krugman says the recent data may just be a seasonal effect.

[BootinUp]

7. link to data for anyone

that might want to see it

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

[honest.abe]

4. To the Fed this is bad news.

No interest rate cuts.

[gab13by13]

8. Why no rate cuts

just because the fed presidents in Minneapolis and Richmond came out and did negative fed speak?

Look what that talk did to the market.

[Johnny2X2X]

20. We'll have rate cuts

Inflation data is the primary driver and it's been trending well.

Prediction, when the Fed does cut rates, the Rightwingers will cry foul that they're just trying to prop up the economy before the election.

[gab13by13]

21. I admit I have zero expertise in finance,

especially macroeconomics, so I have a question:

The Fed seems stuck on numbers such as 2.5% inflation target. Explain to me why a 3.0% inflation target may not be better?

Why the hangups on data? If the economy flourishes at 3% inflation is that a bad thing?

I certainly saw the effects of Fed speak saying that we shouldn't cut interest rates for 2024. (that was from the Minneapolis Fed president)

[Johnny2X2X]

23. History

So the Fed is going by history and historically 2.0% inflation leads to the most stability in growth and the job market.

Their preferred measure of inflation, PCE, is currently at 2.5%. But CPI is still just over 3%. The thing is, if we were just at 3% without having come down from 9%, the attitude would be much different. 3% inflation is no big deal unless you've recently had high inflation. If we were just seeing 3% for the first time, interest rates would be much lower.

For all the criticism Powell and the Fed have gotten, they may have hit this all just right. Not only did we avoid any recession, but we have robust growth with full employment and the best wage growth we've seen in generations. And what's more is the world economy is not doing as well, the US is doing better than everyone else, we aren't just riding the wave of a great world economy. The US economy is outgrowng China's right now for the first time in 30 years. When this is all said and done, Jerome Powell is going to be a legend. He'll go down as a genius and he'll have glowing chapters in economic textbooks written about him forever.

[PennRalphie]

9. This needs to be the message

The economy is absolutely booming. If any of you have traveled this Spring, you have seen the full airports, hotels, restaurants, cruise ships, amusement parks and everything else related to travel. People don’t spend all of this money unless they have it to spend. Every ad needs to scream the economy is booming. Everyone who wants a job has one and people are earning enough money to spend it on discretionary items. Keep preaching that, Mr. President and you will have a true landslide win in November.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. The media

The media has been negative aboutt he conomy for years now, even when it was improving. 1/2 the country thinks we're in a recesssion when we're seeing the best economic growth in decades. But I think the tide has turned, the media can't ignore how great the economy is looking and are starting to report on it.

The psychology of inflation is hard to overcome though. You can tell people the facts and they're still going to concetrate on only the negative. And people externalize the negative and internalize the positive. So people will say, "Prices are killing me, everything is 20% more expensive than a few years ago!" When you point out to them, "Yeah, but you're making 22% more in your paycheck." they won't see it that way, because that 22% is something they earned and made happen while the 20% price increases are something being done to them. It's a hard shell to get through. And even though someone is actually doing better, they're still going to complaion about prices.

[PennRalphie]

13. Vacation season

Will begin and the media will have no choice but report on the unbelievable number of Americans spending money to travel and have fun. Here in the Pittsburgh area they often report on the record number of passengers at our airport. They’ll have no choice but to continue reporting that. People will eventually realize the economy really IS booming, and to stop listening to doom and gloomers. Housing here is also on fire, but I realize that’s not the case everywhere.

[gab13by13]

15. The doom and gloomers

were the fed presidents from Minneapolis and Richmond who predicted no lowering of interest rates in 2024 which caused the market to tank.

Oil prices are up to $90 a barrel simply because of a possible war between Israel and Iran?

It seems to me that there are people in high places who want the economy to fail to help Trump and Bidenomics is still kicking their asses.

[jaxexpat]

19. The propaganda is thick against Biden's economy.

One would think suicide the latest popular recreational endeavor if they got their " facts" from the media message machines. Trump is still 24/7 stomping Biden on the "real" polls by their account. I've never seen such blatant stupidity racing through the masses.

[gab13by13]

14. Absolutely

the planes I flew on had no empty seats. I flew into Charlotte and it is expanding its airport.

[PennRalphie]

16. Charlotte airport is chaos

I have never witnessed the mass of people in one place ever. Not even at Disney. My wife loves those white rocking chairs, but the past two years, there’s been zero chance of sitting in one. I can see where the expansion is needed. Here in Pittsburgh, they’re building a brand new terminal. Should be finished next year. You don’t do those things unless your economy is on the rise.

The people of North Carolina must be able to see how well this economy is doing. Just by the airport traffic.

[maxrandb]

10. Morning Blow just spent 20 minutes

detailing how "this is bad for Joe Biden".

Some days, I just want to FUCKING give up!

Maybe fascism will bring down the price of groceries.

[Johnny2X2X]

12. Unreal

I'm sure they related it to the Fed.

And that's another thing people are twisted about, interest rates. Interest rates right now are not high, they are closer to normal than they were when we started raising them. This is what people buying houses had to count on for the previous several generations. A 7% interest rate on a home mortgage would be the envy of people buying houses in the 70s, 80s, or 90s.

George Bush and his buddies on Wall Street destroyed the economy and we had to lower interest ratews to near zero for over a decade to keep from a Depression. People got used to that, but it was not normal.

[gab13by13]

17. The fed caused the market to tank

because the fed presidents in Richmond and Minneapolis suggested no interest cuts in 2024.

I worry that the price of oil is going to be manipulated to go higher, it is already up to $90 a barrel and that won't help curbing inflation.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. Powell the day before said he still sees 3 rate cuts this year

Markets reacted to some people in the Fed disagreeing.

Markets have been on an incredible bull run, they were just lookng for any sign to sell off a little and lock in profits. Appears to be a temporary thing. The findamentals of the economy are rock solid, people are spending, people are working. And inflation is still trending in the right direction.

[gab13by13]

22. I asked you this question in a post above

but I will ask it again so you don't miss it;

Why the hang up on numbers/data? The goal is 2.5% inflation, but explain to me why a goal of 3.0% inflation may actually work better for the economy?

[Johnny2X2X]

24. Canada at 6.1% UE

Our closest neighbor and one of our top trade partnrs still struggling. Makes the Biden economy even more remarkable.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-unexpectedly-sheds-jobs-unemployment-125548603.html