**Donald Trump's Hopes of Black Support Stung by New Poll** (Pew Research Center)

[hlthe2b]

A new poll has suggested Donald Trump will not garner significant support from Black voters in November's presidential election.--snip--

Ahead of this vote, some reports and polls have suggested there has been racial realignment, with Black voters, who traditionally support the Democratic Party opting to vote for the Republicans instead.

But new research from Pew Research Center suggests otherwise. A survey shows 83 percent of Black voters favor the Democratic Party, a three percent decline from 1994 when 86 percent aligned in this way.

On the other hand, 12 percent support the Republican Party. This marks a one percent decline from 1994 when 13 percent supported the party.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-s-hopes-of-black-support-stung-by-new-poll/ar-BB1locSO?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LSJS&cvid=085a5951b44b412caa55908c60a93c40&ei=76

Guess the condescending "gold sneaker campaign" and attempts to garner the "mug shot sympathy vote" aren't working...

[rurallib]

1. Makes me think of JC Watts father's comment on blacks and Republicans

Mar 1, 1999 — A black man voting for the Republicans makes about as much sense as a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.” –J.C. Watts Sr., the father of ..

[BaronChocula]

12. What I think happened to J.C. Jr.

He was so smitten by the admiration of all those white nationalist Sooner boosters at Oklahoma that he drank their Kool-Aid.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Direct link to the Pew site:

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisan-coalitions-methodology/

An impressive sample size of 10,000 respondents, including 1200 Black respondents (MOE +/- 3.9% - pretty good for a polling subgroup)

[Lovie777]

3. And yet.....................

J.C. Watts is a Republican.

[hlthe2b]

5. Umm. rurallib's comment was about JC Watt's FATHER. n/t

[LiberalFighter]

17. There are stupid whites too. Probably a lot more than blacks.

[yardwork]

4. This is not a surprise.

Btw, I think the news source inaccurately quoted Pew on the percent of decline.

[Jrose]

6. Women, People of Color, LGBTQ people, Muslims and Jews...

Last edited Thu Apr 11, 2024, 07:39 AM - Edit history (1)

...and the many millions of Americans who want to keep our democracy strong...will join forces and reelect Biden!

[whathehell]

25. ---------

Correction: Not "non- Christians" -- non- Right Wing Christians. Mainstream Christianity is still the predominate religion in this country, and it includes many, if not most, of the groups you've listed. That said, it might be best to stop conflating the two.

[Jrose]

32. I see your point. I've changed this post to focus on the religious groups

that are the most attacked and alienated by maga-publicans.

[shrike3]

7. Ya think?

It seems like every election cycle I hear this -- blacks voters are turning Republican -- and it never happens. Sheesh. Media and GOP never learn.

[Sky Jewels]

9. It's wishful thinking on the media's part.

They love them some “Bad News for Dems!” narratives.

[calimary]

16. They're desperate for a horse race.

Dear God are they dealt for a horse race! They think it’s good for ratings. For me, it’s only good for an Alka Seltzer.

[LiberalFighter]

18. Maybe the media should report more on the good Republicans do?

[markodochartaigh]

21. "Maybe the media should report more on the good Republicans do?"

Do stations even still have static?

[SoFlaBro]

8. Black people don't like the fucking Orange Wet Bag of Boiled Owl Shit.

[twodogsbarking]

10. Didn't he kill one of the only people of color who endorsed him?

[niyad]

13. Actually, that idiot killed himself with his own stupidity, but dementia j.

cockroach (KO's latest name for TRAITOR**) certainly helped.

[twodogsbarking]

14. And then there is the late Ben Carson.

[niyad]

15. .ummmm, idiot carson is not deceased. .well, the body anyway. .

the mind went lonnnnnnnng ago!

[hlthe2b]

19. You are confusing him with Herman Cain (dead of COVID-19 after attending a Trump rally)

Ben Carson is alive.

[twodogsbarking]

22. Herm is the one. My bad.

[hlthe2b]

20. Herman Cain (died of COVID-19 after attending a very ill-advised Trump rally early on)

[twodogsbarking]

23. I screwed up. Sorry.

[Aristus]

24. I wish they had buried him in "Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan."

Wherever that is...

A pizza parlor guy who openly mocks the importance of global diplomacy has no business being anywhere near the White House.

Fortunately, he took himself out of the running, thereby doing global diplomacy, and the globe itself, a huge favor.

[0rganism]

28. If he hadn't already reproduced, he would have been a top contender for the Darwin award

His destiny walked the wide line between epic Greek tragedy and pathetic ass-kissing irony.

[Mr. Evil]

11. But, I guess TSF is retaining the psycho vote.

[underpants]

26. Black people have student debt too

[Cha]

27. Why Would Blacks Vote for Traitor to the USA, Rapist, Lying Full of SHit Asshole?

Thanks!

[All Mixed Up]

29. 1994 is a weird year to compare - so, let's compare to 2020.

1. Democrats took a hit in 1994 after having the presidency for two-years (and would get hammered in November's midterms that year).

2. At least since 2000, Democrats have historically had a larger advantage among Black voters than they did in the 1990s. In 1992, Clinton won 83% of the Black vote. In 2020, Biden won 87%. So, he saw a four-point increase in his totals. In 1996, Clinton won 84% of Blacks - so, still less than what Biden saw in 2020.

Knowing all that, let's take a look at the 2020 survey.

So, Republicans held a 53-42 edge among white voters in 2020. Now? 56-41.

That's not good.

Democrats have lost one-point and Republicans have improved by three-points. That's a four-point swing.

Of course, this is a poll and not actual voters. In 2020, though, Biden won 41% of white voters and Trump 58%.

So, Biden is hitting about the number his total was in 2020's actual votes, while Trump is doing two-points worse than he did in 2020.

Except the polling (done in July, 2020 instead of April) was off from the actual 2020 numbers. Trump did much better (+17) in actual votes than he did in the 2020 Pew poll (margin +11).

Among Black voters, the poll in 2020 had Democrats winning 83% and Republicans 10%.

Now? It's 83 to 12.

So, Republicans have actually seen a two-point increase here.

How does that compare to the 2020 race?

Well I already pointed out that Biden won 87% of Black voters - and Trump won 12%.

Biden did better (+75) in actual votes than he did in the 2020 Pew poll (margin +71).

With Hispanics, the poll in 2020 had Democrats winning 63% of and Republicans 29%.

Now? 61% to 35%.

Republicans have made gains here. Democrats lost two-points off their 2020 total and Republicans increased their total by six. That's a swing of eight-points. That's significant. That's the biggest difference of any of the demographics.

BUT in 2020, Biden won 65% of the Hispanic vote - Trump 32%.

So, Biden did worse (+33) in actual votes than he did in the 2020 Pew poll (+34) - but barely. It was only one-point off in the margins.

What does this mean? Democrats have lost support across the board. But it also could just be MOE fluctuation.

With that said, as close as 2020 was, if these losses hold, Biden is going to have a difficult time winning in November.

To summarize:

Democrats are doing four-points worse among white voters than in the 2020 poll.

Democrats are doing two-points worse among Black voters than in the 2020 poll.

Democrats are doing eight-points worse among Hispanic voters than in the 2020 poll.

Which I think probably balances out to the actual lead they see in the party identification overall (+1).

+1 ain't going to get it done.

If Biden wins the popular vote by one, he's likely losing reelection.

My final takeaway: these numbers don't show a dramatic shift but a shift nonetheless and that shift is very problematic unless it's corrected between now and November.

[Qutzupalotl]

30. And after everything that Trump did

to create fake AI-generated images of black people standing behind him.

[Takket]

31. but his people put out those AI generated shots of him with black people? Wasn't that enough?

What more to black people want??? Substance???????????????

[malaise]

33. Black peoples know a crooked Racist Con

when they see one. Only the lowest of the low African Americans will give him any time of day

[Johnny2X2X]

34. The GOP thinks black people are stupid

When he pardoned a few well known black people before the 2020 election, he thought that would be enough. People aren't stupid, they see how he villifies them constantly when talking about "inner cities". People know the code words Republicans use for them.

[BComplex]

35. Post removed by poster