Pew pokes a hole in "Orangetan-loving Black voters" narrative

[struggle4progress]

April 13, 2024, 6:00 AM EDT
By Ja'han Jones

A new report from the Pew Research Center pokes a hole in the oft-repeated claim that a historic racial realignment is occurring within American politics, with nonwhite voters learning to love the GOP and Donald Trump.

In recent years — days, even — there’s been a seemingly endless deluge of news stories hyping up this purported realignment as fact. Trump and his allies have been touting similar claims as well (which seems like all the more reason to question them).

But you needn’t just take my word for it. Pew’s analysis of registered voters — based on hundreds of thousands of interviews conducted from 1994 through last summer — showed that while Democrats may have lost some support among nonwhite voters, any seismic shift in party identification is largely a figment of the media’s imagination ...

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/trump-black-voters-republicans-pew-report-rcna147645

[elleng]

1. 'a figment of the media's imagination .'

[JHB]

9. I think a more accuate decriptor, given the salacious obession with the idea...

...is the media's "wet dream."

[brush]

2. I've disputed such BS everytime I read that here...

as I'm African American and I would never think of voting for a republican, especially that MFer trump. And neither would any of my Black friends, acquaintances or family members.

It's disinformation trying to make Black people reconsider voting republican. We're not stupid. There are however, as in any ethnic group, some willing to sell out for a price...like those morons who are paid to stand on podiums behind orange Smelvis in camera view as he bloviates more bullshit.

[brooklynite]

6. "I'm African American and I would never think of voting for a republican"

You however are not typical, for the very reason that you spend time on a political, pro-Democratic website.

[brush]

7. i'm a typical Black man who associates with other Black people.

And I know much better than you how Black people think. Take it to the bank and don't fall for repug talking points.

[brooklynite]

34. You're not a typical Black man and I'm not a typical White man.

People who are politically engaged enough to be here in no way represent average voters.

When I became a Ward Committeeman in Philadelphia 45 years ago, one of the first lessons I learned was: "never assume that voter share the same opinions you do".

[Elessar Zappa]

42. Let's make a bet on what percentage of Blacks vote for Trump.

I bet, at most, he increases his support among Black males by one or two percentage points. And among black females, he won’t gain at all.

[brooklynite]

43. I don my think that's unreasonable..

But any shift towards Trump in a battleground State is a risk.

And I’ll point out the thrust of the OP is that the shift isn’t happening.

[Walleye]

52. I don't think the typical black man will want to have to deal with the typical black woman on this topic

I am a white woman, but I know how men can get stubborn

[NanaCat]

16. You're going to white-splain black culture

To a black person?

Really?

[Voltaire2]

19. .

[FHRRK]

35. Why yes of course

Some think that they are the arbitrator of all things Democratic and have appointed themselves King and Queens of DU.

I have pointed out many times, sometimes it is best just to STFU, they are just like mid level corporate managers who can’t help themselves and offer problems in every meetings. Solutions escape them, because solving issues would mean being able to work hard and coordinate with others.

[brooklynite]

37. So you're saying the only issue Black voters care about is racism?

In which case, what’s your explanation doubling his Black vote in 2020?

[erronis]

31. Really need a negative Rec for these types of comments.

[JohnSJ]

40. Sorry Brooklyn, but I don't think a white man is in any position to tell us what a

typical African American is or is not.

November will be interesting to see how the pollsters serve as an indicator of what will happen

[John Shaft]

45. Sometimes you have to push the brakes

on believing your own bullshit.

Humility can do wonders.

[Keepthesoulalive]

28. Thank you

For standing up to the bullshit. Unlike some people we won’t vote to slit our own throats.

[brush]

30. Exactly. Too much whitesplaining going on.

[Voltaire2]

3. NYT pitchbot: we talked to a 'black voter' who supports Trump

[dalton99a]

18. If they find two, headline becomes BLACK VOTERS REJECT BIDEN

[ananda]

4. A lot of false claims and narratives ...

are being orchestrated these days

[brooklynite]

5. Nobody has claimed that there's a "seismic" shift among African American voters....

There IS a shift however (both among African Americans and Hispanics) which may be enough in a tight election. That;s there significance.

[brush]

8. A shift to vote for a known white supremacist? Yeah, sure.

[brooklynite]

11. This is difficult for some people to accept...

….but African Americans voters are not monolithically driven exclusively by racism. They care about kitchen table issues like white voters do, and many rural African Americans re more socially conservative than those in Democratic cities.

[brush]

12. It's difficult for some to accept that polls are easily manipulated...

to yield the results sponsors want.

And what's with all the complaining and speculation about Black voters who vote Dem in the 80 and 90 percentile range when two thirds of white men are voting for trump, and a majority of white women are too.

Those are the voters who should be constantly disected, polled, complained about and scrutinized.

[brooklynite]

14. So its a good thing we can look at actual voting patterns.

2012 Obama 93 Romney 6
2016 Clinton 91 Trump 6
2020 Biden 87 Trump 12

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2020

Despite his racist tendancies, Trump doubled his African American vote in 2020 after 4 years as President.

[brush]

20. Still no complaints about the two thirds of white men...

and majority of white women voting for trump?

And the 80 and 90 percentile range of Black voters voting blue is still outdistances every other ethnic group. That's a positive, not a negative...even though I think it's low for typical Black men voters.

[brooklynite]

21. Not relevant to the discussion

"two thirds of white men and majority of white women" aren't an existing Democratic voting bloc who's shift could put a Biden win at risk.

[brush]

22. Do you not get that you're coming off like Susan Smith from back in the day...

blame the Black man? And I still don't buy your figures as other polls show different results than what you posted.

[brooklynite]

23. I'm not "blaming" anyone...

...but neither am I ignoring data that I find inconvenient. My goal is winning elections, and understanding trends in the electorate is a good start.

As for my "figures", they're data results from the last three Presidential elections.

[brush]

24. There was a recent poll just last week that said there was no significant shift right of Black voters...

so we'll see what happens on election day, the poll that matters.

[brooklynite]

25. A campaign that waits to "see what happens on election day" invariably loses.

A campaign that identifies current trends and tries to address them has much better chances of success..

[brush]

26. Why ignore the Pew poll from last week that differs from the alleged shift you keep talking about?

[dsc]

27. exit polls have MOE and that change is likely within it

I can't be sure because even the source data doesn't mention it.

[Celerity]

15. Agree.

[John Shaft]

46. I'm a rural Black man.

Tell me what I'm most concerned about?

You can't make this shit up!

[brooklynite]

47. "I'm a rural Black man"

…..Who spends time chatting on a political discussion blog.

Therein lies the issue.

[John Shaft]

48. Black people can't read about politics?

What are you trying to say?

I sit in the barbershop. No one who looks like me is for TSF. No one like you is very often in those kind of rooms. The gentlemen I speak with are politically astute and get the vote out.

Are you assuming most Black people are uneducated criminals incapable of having political understanding?

Nice look.

Now tell me some more about Black folk.

[brooklynite]

49. I'm saying that MOST voters (Black or White) don't...

…nor do they watch hours of MSNBC. Opinions expressed here do not represent those of the electorate in general.

[Voltaire2]

54. He's on a roll and can't be stopped!

[erronis]

32. brush - you look like you've been around for a while. Don't feed the trolls.

They love wrestling in the mud.

[brush]

33. I know. Brooklnite is not really a troll as he's a regular.

IMO though, he believes too much in questionable polls.

[erronis]

36. And is fond of an argument.

Oh, well. Many of us are.

[brooklynite]

39. Would a Focus Group be more reliable?

We fielded a focus group of Black voters who are warming up to Trump after not voting for him in '16 or '20.

Donald Trump is polling better with Black voters than he used to, so we fielded a focus group of Black voters who are warming up to him...after not voting for him in 2016 or 2020. Ashley Allison, former Biden-Harris campaign official and CNN commentator, joins Sarah to discuss why some Black voters are souring on the Democratic Party.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8471004-taken-for-granted-with-ashley-allison

[brooklynite]

41. It's not "trolling" to challenge either conventional wisdom or orthodoxy...

…in furtherance of actually winning elections. It’s critical to understand actual voting patterns and trends and adjust your campaign strategy according.

[All Mixed Up]

53. The Pew poll shows a very slight shift to Republicans since 2020.

So either this poll is correct or it's not but if it's not correct, then we can't really use it to prove there isn't a slight shift.

But since I don't see anyone questioning this poll...Pew does show Democrats have lost support.

In their 2020 poll of registered voters, Democrats led Republicans 83-10 among registered voters. In this poll, it's now 83-12.

Very small increase but an increase.

Among Hispanics, in 2020 Democrats led 63-29. Now it's 61-35.

Republicans have made gains. Trump made gains in 2020 especially.

In 2020, Trump won 12% of the Black vote. In 2016, he won 8%.

So, right there is proof he can make gains.

Or was he not a white supremacist in 2020?

[Voltaire2]

10. Well done.

Indeed the phrase ‘seismic shift’ doesn’t appear in the article or the op or the numerous examples of the actual claims debunked by the pew report at the article.

[uponit7771]

13. False, the "shift" is not significant and hasn't gone up past recent GQP stats for black men or women

[SYFROYH]

17. "seismic shift in party identification" is a stawman position to knock over easily.

Party identification is a different issue from voting.

These data are from the BBC and it shows a shift (albeit not seismic) and these shifts can be enough to lose battle ground states.



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54972389

[Doc Sportello]

51. An interesting trend among these numbers

Is that Biden's losses in any group do not usually parallel dump's gains. The only ones they do are black women and Hispanic men. Among Hispanic women and Asian and other minorities there is a 5% and 4% gain for dump while little to no change for Biden. Pretty much the same among the other groups with less difference. Which to me means the added support for dump mostly isn't coming from former Biden supporters. Perhaps that is where ad buys should target. Just my take.

[brush]

29. What about the Pew Poll that doesn't agree?

[gulliver]

38. The article kind of stinks, but the Pew poll data is useful

I have two quibbles with the article. First, it doesn't address the importance of the downtick in Black support of the Dems (seen by following the link to the actual report in the article). Small is enough to lose elections. It's a concern.

Unfortunately and secondly, the article repeats a very unjust, gratuitous, and all-too-common broad-brush attack on men. It's not even black men. The article says, "I think there’s a story to be written about how men could be drawn in by Trump’s misogyny."

Smh. Write the article! The sentence by itself is lazy, grossly unjust, and vote losing.

I do appreciate the link to the Pew study. Interesting to see Hispanic and White voters giving us an uptick. I hope that becomes a trend.

[FakeNoose]

44. Won't all of this change when Obama campaigns for Biden this summer?

Obama has already done several fund-raising events and he's just warming up. The Obama effect on Black voters is real, and indeed on all Democrats. It's true he didn't do a whole lot in 2020 to help Biden, but no matter....

Pew Research is missing the whole point. What they should be looking at is this: Biden won 4 years ago with not much help from Obama. This year Obama is going to be out there campaigning and Biden will be invincible.

[Sympthsical]

50. That article is like 95% opinion piece

Some of the salient data.



There has been a shift in recent years. I do think the media stories are over-exaggerated. But that's what media do. It's not AMG Historic Realignment.

But it's enough to fuck with a swing state or two. That's what's important.