American climate migration is underway

[cbabe]

https://www.alternet.org/the-complex-contradictory-and-heartbreaking-process-of-american-climate-migration-is-underway/

The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway

Abrahm LustgartenandProPublicaApril 14, 2024

Another great American migration is now underway, this time forced by the warming that is altering how and where people can live. For now, it’s just a trickle. But in the corners of the country’s most vulnerable landscapes — on the shores of its sinking bayous and on the eroding bluffs of its coastal defenses — populations are already in disarray.

…

As the U.S. gets hotter, its coastal waters rise higher, its wildfires burn larger and its droughts last longer, the notion that humankind can triumph over nature is fading, and with it, slowly, goes the belief that self-determination and personal preference can be the driving factors in choosing where to live. Scientific modeling of these pressures suggest a sweeping change is coming in the shape and location of communities across America, a change that promises to transform the country’s politics, culture and economy.

It has already begun. More Americans are displaced by catastrophic climate-change-driven storms and floods and fires every year. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, the global nongovernmental organization researchers rely on to measure the number of people forcibly cast out of their homes by natural disasters, counted very few displaced Americans in 2009, 2010 and 2011, years in which few natural disasters struck the United States. But by 2016 the numbers had begun to surge, with between 1 million and 1.7 million newly displaced people annually. The disasters and heat waves each year have become legion. But the statistics show the human side of what has appeared to be a turning point in both the severity and frequency of wildfires and hurricanes. As the number of displaced people continues to grow, an ever-larger portion of those affected will make their moves permanent, migrating to safer ground or supportive communities. They will do so either because a singular disaster like the 2018 wildfire in Paradise, California — or Hurricane Harvey, which struck the Texas and Louisiana coasts — is so destructive it forces them to, or because the subtler “slow onset” change in their surroundings gradually grows so intolerable, uncomfortable or inconvenient that they make the decision to leave, proactively, by choice. In a 2021 study published in the journal Climatic Change, researchers found that 57% of the Americans they surveyed believed that changes in their climate would push them to consider a move sometime in the next decade.

Also in 2021, the national real estate firm Redfin conducted a similar nationwide survey, finding that nearly half of Americans who planned to move that year said that climate risks were already driving their decisions. Some 52% of people moving from the West said that rising and extreme heat was a factor, and 48% of respondents moving from the Northeast pointed to sea level rise as their predominant threat. Roughly one in four Americans surveyed told Redfin they would no longer consider a move to a region facing extreme heat, no matter how much more affordable that location was. And nearly one-third of people said that “there was no price at which” they would consider buying a home in a coastal region affected by rising seas. When Redfin broadened its survey to include more than a thousand people who had not yet decided to move, a whopping 75% of them said that they would think twice before buying a home in a place facing rising heat or other climate risks.

…more… long read…

[lark]

1. Climate is certainly a big consideration when buying a home in FL.

My sister is looking to move closer, but many of the open nice properties around here are close to the St. Johns river and may be unsafe in the future. She is staying away from those and of course avoiding any riverfront or close to the ocean property which limits her options. Houses on the St. Johns' in front of us have had the river move up a lot closer than it used to be and the creek behind houses on the ravine 2 miles from now now comes up much closer to the houses and in the worst 2 cases is now up near the actual houses. So glad we were smart enough to know to avoid water 40 years ago when we bought this house. We're at least 30 ft up from the river and across the road and have great drainage. We really thought about storms. The only thing we failed to consider enough was the huge oak trees on our property and all around us. We live in an old growth oak forest with at least 23 mature oaks on our 1/3 acre, and have to pull up and cut down small trees all the time or we'd have nothing but trees here.

We also moved to only one of 2 places on the coast in FL to not get hit with a hurricane in over 50 years. Jacksonville is on a big bay and the storms don't make that sharp turn and go on by and hit GA or usually NC. Tampa is the other - same reason, different coast.

[erronis]

2. A trickle of people that can afford to move to safer places will become a torrent of people

who just need to survive.

Add in many people from other places/countries who absolutely need shelter as the oceans rise and the land bakes.

[Hekate]

22. As the author points out, there are places that can't really be rebuilt, so survivors must move

Further building in the forested or chaparral areas of dry states may simply cease to be done. Flood plains, same thing. Whether it’s because people use their common sense, or because home insurance companies stop selling coverage and people are financially wiped out…. Welcome to the big city alternative.

When we bought our home 7 years ago, I rejected seaside properties out of hand. Ultimately I fell for a house in a little valley, which barely missed being swept away by a major regional fire a few months after we moved in.

All of this is to say — in subsequent months and years our home insurance company has made it very clear that they are within an inch of bailing on the entire State of California. Thank you for your business, we must be going now…

If anything bad happens to our house, we won’t rebuild at our age. It’s a calculated risk. What makes me sad, though, is that my husband wants to leave the house to our daughter (a very good thing) , and if it should still be here she will not be able to insure it.

[erronis]

3. Please use the original source (ProPublica) when posting these articles

https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-migration-louisiana-slidell-flooding

I appreciate you bringing this to our attention, but original sources are best.

Even the AlterNet article did not link to the original ProPublica article - putting them in the same category as RawStory, etc. - aggregators and click-bait for advertising dollars.

[cbabe]

8. I tried but couldn't access. Thanks for original link.

[mahina]

33. Thank you!

I never click on Rawstory links and would have missed this. Aloha.

[progressoid]

4. Meanwhile Florida is third in the nation in possitive net migration growth.

[calimary]

30. Yikes! I saw a two-panel map of Florida a few months ago that

REALLY worried me. It was a current map alongside a map of what was expected in 50-or-more years. The lower third of the peninsula was actually a large island. The Panhandle was still part of the mainland but was completely separated by a large swath of Gulf of Mexico in between.

Scary. The whole middle of the state was completely underwater.

[not fooled]

5. Global warming refugee here

I just moved from frying pan SW AZ to the PNW, in large part to escape severe heat (secondarily to get out of a dingy, drab fourth-rate armpit of a town full of red don supporters).

The AZ heat gets noticeably worse every year, to the point that the winter vegetable season has been pushed back a month because of persistent high temperatures in the fall. Yet, shockingly, global warming denial runs rampant. Lots of LDS and other science deniers who can’t acknowledge what’s happening all around them. 🙄 My maggot former neighbor there actually told me that it would be a long time before global warming had any serious impact, so there’s no need to do anything about it mow. Of course he’s a faux watcher.

[PSPS]

6. Yes, the entire SW is in peril with the Colorado River drying up. Before too long there will be no water or electricity.

[Mme. Defarge]

9. A few years ago

I suggested to a friend that eventually Portland would become the major large city in the Pacific Northwest because of climate change since we’re not on the coast but on the confluence of two major rivers with good shipping and transportation infrastructure. Also, our water source is fairly reliable, though mountain snowpack does depend on the weather and fire season is becoming increasingly more perilous. However, our city and county governments need to get their merde together.

[calimary]

31. That's what we decided, too. Never been happier!

And we actually have a little snow in the winter! Added bonus!

[Retrograde]

13. There's a decent light rail in the Phoenix area

that runs from downtown through Tempe and out to Mesa (maybe farther, that's just the parts I've taken)

What bothers me about the Phoenix area is the desire to air-condition the outside with misting systems. Good thing the region has an abundance of water

[former9thward]

18. I am not sure I would say the light rail is decent.

There is just one line. So, if you are not going to anyplace by that one line it is useless. The line goes to the business district of the older section of Mesa but that is it. Mesa continues for many miles more to the east.

Despite what many think there is plenty of water for the populated areas of AZ. Water issues in AZ affect agriculture not people.

[Attilatheblond]

32. Folks in the Sulpher Spring Valley east of Sierra Visita would like a word re not affecting people

The water table (fossil water) has been lowered so much many, soon most, homes are dry. People can't afford the cost of drilling deeper to reach the water table now and they can't sell their dry homes.

Sure, it's a rural part of the state, but it is the agricultural pumping that has left little communities without water for homes. That may not seem important to big city folk, but it is the canary in the coal mine. Urban water will be gone all too soon. That's gonna cost millions of people.

[Warpy]

17. AZ is going to see net migration out

as first the exurbs and then the suburbs find themselves with little water. A lot of places out here are going to have to boecome considerably smaller to survive. West Texas farms will no longer be viable as the ground water dries up.

[former9thward]

20. That is not true.

There are water issues in AZ for agriculture. Not populated areas. AZ has long had laws which require developers to show they have at least 100 years of water before they can build in an area. People continue to arrive in AZ which is why their electoral votes keep going up compared with the north.

[not fooled]

26. The Wildcat Subdivision loophole

makes a mockery of the 100-year water requirement, at least where I fled from. As long as developers build 5 houses or less at a time, no need to meet subdivision requirements. So, of course, there are 5-house parcel splits being built on all over the armpit area I fled.

It’s a known massive loophole in AZ.

[former9thward]

28. Did you have water issues?

Regardless of so-called loopholes there have been no water shortage issues in populated areas.

[not fooled]

38. Per local well drillers and engineers

the water table is falling about a foot per year and salinity levels are rising. That’s not sustainable. So, it’s only a matter of time before wells have problems. IMO development interests are looting the aquifer for short-term gain.

[Attilatheblond]

34. Developers are not being honest re 100 years of water.

A dear friend has been fighting court cases where developers outright lie, and get away with lying because local boards are easy to convince. Lately, some of those fairly recent decisions have been forcibly overturned, but it is a constant (and expensive) battle to sue developers who lie to officials, and the officials who pretend they are not being lied to.

[not fooled]

40. Oh, yeah, that goes on

The armpit area I left was a sordid little cesspool of grifting by connected insiders, including local government officials. The county board of supervisors included the local roofer who did the roofs for developers whose projects he voted for, the sister of the biggest commercial real estate broker in the area, etc. ad nauseam. Add in no effective local media to cover what they do plus an ignorant, apathetic, disengaged populace and you get a recipe for a patch work sprawl of drab ugliness. Horrible place. Apparently the original white land stealers came from Louisiana and Mississippi. It’s the feudal old south in the desert SW. Blech.

[Warpy]

41. Agriculture responded to less Colorado River water by punping out ground water

Southern NM is also going to be in serious trouble, but the population is far lower.

[ret5hd]

25. "...a long time before global warming..."

so, uhmmm…fuck your grandkids, right? worthless little fucks anyway, right?

[not fooled]

27. Yeah, that about sums him up

Oh, this guy is immensely selfish. As long as his lifestyle is not inconvenienced or made more expensive, he’s fine with everything. Ignorant, dumb, and selfish.

[calimary]

43. I did notice, though, that two years ago we had 100+ degree temperatures for three days.

That was during the summer. Last summer, however. I counted 12 such days (where the temperature climbs up to and past 100).

[LisaM]

7. Maybe they shouldn't have moved in the first place.

I rarely go to Florida or Arizona (only for events like weddings or conferences) and I am appalled by the overuse of power. First, everyone drives. I don't recall seeing much transit in Miami or Orlando or Phoenix.

But next is the amount of air-conditioning! It's insane. No one tries to cool off with the time-proven methods of thick walls, shade, ceiling fans, and cross breezes. Nope. AC all the way, all day.

[former9thward]

23. It takes less power to AC those areas to a comfortable level than you think.

It takes more power to heat the north in the cold. So maybe you can heat only to 55 in the winter and AZ will turn down the AC a little. Will you go for that?

[LisaM]

35. I went ahead and looked up which states have the most power usage.

Number one is Texas, by a huge margin, then California, then Florida. After that, there is a significant drop off and fourth is Ohio for some reason.

Texas, California, and Florida are not northern states. Moreover, northern states aren't hot all year round, and usually only use heat between October and April.

Another issue is water. The Southwest doesn't have it. California has had a number of drought years (remember when people in Arizona and New Mexico wanted to pipeline water from the Great Lakes?)

[former9thward]

37. Wasn't your post about AC?

Yes, it was. Now you are trying to make it about power uses. Power demand comes from many sources. Manufacturing, agriculture, office buildings, urban infrastructure and everything else. I have homes in Mesa (Phoenix area) and Chicago. Both similar sizes. My utility bills for Chicago are far higher than Mesa. So, my offer still stands but people in the north won't take it.

[LisaM]

42. That was just an example of why people shouldn't necessarily all go to the South.

You likely moderate your AC use and of course I don't know what your heat source is, but every building I have been in in Phoenix (which I dislike anyway because the air is so dry) or Florida feels like a meat locker!

[Ford_Prefect]

10. IN the North West we're already seeing the effects of this. One effect has been radical reduction in affordable housing.

Last edited Sun Apr 14, 2024, 09:38 PM - Edit history (1)

People currently moving here have the means to afford higher cost housing so the market has gone there. This has several effects on affordability. One is that lower cost housing is being bought off the market, whether it is rental or owned, and being renovated to sell upmarket to the new arrivals. Another is that as more housing is built it is aimed at the new arrivals at mid to upper middle prices, or more. A side effect is that not only do folks who need less expensive housing to rent, or buy, have nothing available in the local market, traditional options such as low rent houses or trailer parks are being removed from the area by developers who can afford to buy them out for projects and to build more expensive homes.
Another significant effect is that rents for housing or for trailer lots has gone up remarkably.

Another effect has been the cost of living for everyone here has gone up as more people move here. One feature which has not been addressed is that the environmental refugees do not realize that we have fire seasons and drought on a regular and increasing basis. The more of them moving here put pressure on the limited water supply along with turning precious open land into housing tracts as well as adding to the already questionable septic load on the land and rivers. It does not help that the County Commissioners were elected with the substantial backing of Developers, real estate firms, and banks who see planning and zoning of any kind as a threat to "their" profits.

[not fooled]

11. Oh, yeah

PNW affordability is definitely declining—To find something I could afford, I had to go way out in the boonies.

And, global warming is taking a toll here as elsewhere—local hay farmers had a bad time of it last year because of drought. And, a neighbor who’s a climate researcher said the surrounding forests will burn within 30 years. Having said that, it’s still a lot better and more livable here than in SW AZ.

[former9thward]

12. Polls are one thing, reality is another.

The NE and upper Midwest continue to suffer population losses and the South and Southwest continue to gain.

[NickB79]

15. And the South and Southwest are seeing insurance rates skyrocket

Or carriers pulling out altogether due to climate risks.

Sooner or later a tipping point will occur, where insurance becomes unaffordable no matter what bailouts are tried. Then people will scramble to sell, realize their property is worth a fraction of what they paid now that it's uninsurable, and a mass real estate crisis will hit. It will make the 2007 housing crash look like a hiccup.

And there is no government stopgap program large enough to prevent this.

[former9thward]

16. Insurance rates are rising everywhere.

Adjustments will be made and there will be programs because politicians always react to where the votes are. And the votes are where the population continues to go.

[NickB79]

39. The scale of property value to be lost is in the trillions

Just from sea level rise alone.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/weather/coastal-flooding-sea-level-rise-study-intl-hnk/index.html

Throw in drought, wildfire, flooding, and it's as I said: there is no way the US government can create programs to cover this, no matter what the voters want. People still aren't wrapping their minds around the scale of what's coming. It's not an exaggeration to say that climate change will render large parts of the planet literally uninhabitable for humans, and will kill billions. It's a mass extinction event the likes of which the planet hasn't seen in 65 million years.

[Brenda]

21. Yep. Denial is a real thing.

Or perhaps some have a reason for wanting to pass along incorrect information.

Either way, it's a runaway train coming soon to America.

[Retrograde]

14. Companies such as Redfin are part of the problem IMHO

they are in business to sell houses, whatever kind they can make quick money out of, and give no thought to designing for the local environment. Building companies want quick profits, and don't bother to take the time to see what's practical in a give area: they just plonk the same design down on lots across the country.

[erronis]

24. Glad you mentioned Redfin - all of these companies really want to have housing churn.

Nothing better than targeted fear and misinformation to boost profits where they want.

[Brenda]

19. Been talking about that for years here, often to dismissals.

People are in deep denial. It's going to be absolute chaos by 2030.

[Chainfire]

29. Texas and Florida are both growing in population like wildfire.

South Carolina, in the heat and on the water rounds out the top three.

As a 72 year Florida Man I can tell you that I aint about to migrate to the cold zones. I solved one big problem when I dropped my homeowner's insurance, those bastards can't get to me any more. Now if I could figure out a solution to the MAGAot population, I would be in paradise.

[Backseat Driver]

36. A town talked about in the article, Slidell, LA, just four days ago hit by

tornado in Southern coastal part of outbreak, straight line winds, and torrential flooding rain.