The number of births continues to fall, despite abortion bans

[RandySF]

Births continued a historic slide in all but two states last year, making it clear that a brief post-pandemic uptick in the nation’s birth numbers was all about planned pregnancies that had been delayed temporarily by COVID-19.

Only Tennessee and North Dakota had small increases in births from 2022 to 2023, according to a Stateline analysis of provisional federal data on births. In California, births dropped by 5%, or nearly 20,000, for the year. And as is the case in most other states, there will be repercussions now and later for schools and the workforce, said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California who follows birth trends.

“These effects are already being felt in a lot of school districts in California. Which schools are going to close? That’s a contentious issue,” Johnson said.

In the short term, having fewer births means lower state costs for services such as subsidized day care and public schools at a time when aging baby boomers are straining resources. But eventually, the lack of people could affect workforces needed both to pay taxes and to fuel economic growth.




https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/number-births-continues-fall-despite-abortion-bans

[Skittles]

1. I'm betting affordability is playing into it

ya know?

[David__77]

2. When there's no right to housing, employment or higher education, it makes sense to me.

[BannonsLiver]

6. So basically how it's been since the country was founded then?

[David__77]

10. Yes.

People’s expectations have also evolved.

[Voltaire2]

3. Good. The whole planet needs fewer people.

The reduced supply of consumer-worker commodities is an oligarch problem.

[Freddie]

4. In some places, women are frightened of pregnancy

If something goes wrong, they’re SOL. I can imagine the number of voluntary sterilizations has skyrocketed.

[HAB911]

5. 100%

[Diamond_Dog]

8. Agree, Freddie. ++++

[Freethinker65]

7. Does this article assume no movement to other states from states where born?

Families move. Just because you were born, and possibly conceived, in one State doesn't mean you won't grow up in another. My so was born in Michigan and we, as a family, left when he was two. He grew up in Illinois.

[Voltaire2]

9. That's irrelevant.

The birth rate overall is in decline. Probably individual states were brought up merely to illustrate that the decline is widespread and not driven by a few huge states.

[Freethinker65]

12. The selected paragraphs in post seemed to emphasize how decreased birth rates affected individual States.

Of course, decreased birth rates affect the country as a whole. That is one reason we, and other countries, ought to encourage immigration.

The idea that banning abortion will lead to population explosions because women without that option will choose to breed quiverfuls was idiotic to begin with. American women don't want to be breeders. Most smaller families are a result of reproductive choices other than abortion. Taking away the abortion option not only endangers women that need the procedure to save their lives, but might actually lead to having smaller families as fewer families will take the risk of an unplanned pregnancy.

I know many families where abortion was available that actually lead to more unplanned pregnancies that were carried to term. Knowing the option was available lead to couples having more unprotected sex with knowledge if one became pregnant there was an option. Having the option didn't mean necessarily taking it, but it did lead to taking more risks that one might become pregnant.

[Mossfern]

11. I have four grown children

only one of them has 2 children of his own. The others see no reason to bring children into this world, They can't afford them and have other interests that would put a cramp on good parenting.

Conversely I do know people of my generation (b.1948) who put pressure on their kids to 'give them grandchildren' - some of those kids are miserable.

I didn't have children in order to have grandchildren.
I had a gas being a mom.

[XanaDUer2]

13. Let's see

Stagnant wages, unaffordable housing, crappy Healthcare, super expenses barely affordable childcare... why are birthrate s falling?

[haele]

15. Most US families haven't needed lots of children since the 1920's.

Lots of children were required in a more rural farm and family business model of economy. Also for the working poor - lots of surviving kids meant the family would have several incomes to make up for the unreliability of "at will" work. Lots of children growing into adulthood also helped the parents as they grew older; at least one child would typically be willing to take mom and dad in during their declining years. Either as a package deal as part of getting the family business, home or farm, or to provide live-in babysitting and household help with younger kids.
Middle/professional class and wealthy families did not need lots of kids to help out.
Modern technology, medicine, and the post-war boom pretty much removed the need for large families with working children.
My hypothesis is that the reduction in the need for a family to have children to provide additional workers for farm or business lead to the rise of the modern Teenager (I e., an extended childhood with reduced expectations and responsibilities) across all economic classes.

And the rise of the modern Teenager has led to the desire for smaller families, because modern teenagers (even if there's an economy of scale) are way more expensive on the family budget than they were back in my grandparents day.
Not to mention the total teen 'tude issue a lot of them have because they don't have to work the way they did in the past just for the family to survive from an early age.
Also, similar to the way children of the wealthy generally never had to, a lot more teens take advantage of the social concept they don't have to "grow up" until they get the first job they need to be responsible at to be able to live on their own. I know 60 and 70 year olds who still haven't grasped the concept of responsibility or that other people exist. Not the well known resentment of life still sucking in old age that people struggling often got, but an actual inability to identify that other people exist outside the "perpetual teen's" experience.

Just one component to the increase of smaller sized/child free family groups to consider.

Haele

[former9thward]

14. The global population rate is falling.

It has nothing to do with individual state abortion policies in the U.S.

Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed.


The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened.

Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.

In high-income nations, fertility fell below replacement in the 1970s, and took a leg down during the pandemic. It’s dropping in developing countries, too. India surpassed China as the most populous country last year, yet its fertility is now below replacement.

“The demographic winter is coming,” said Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, an economist specializing in demographics at the University of Pennsylvania. ​Many government leaders see this as a matter of national urgency. They worry about shrinking workforces, slowing economic growth and underfunded pensions; and the vitality of a society with ever-fewer children. Smaller populations come with diminished global clout, raising questions in the U.S., China and Russia about their long-term standings as superpowers.

https://www.wsj.com/world/birthrates-global-decline-cause-ddaf8be2