Biden and Trump In Tight National Race

[applegrove]

Biden and Trump In Tight National Race

May 22, 2024 at 2:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 106 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/05/22/biden-and-trump-in-tight-national-race/

"SNIP.............

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump are locked in a neck-and-neck race with Biden receiving 48% support and Trump receiving 47% support.

When independent and Green Party candidates are added to the presidential matchup, Biden receives 41% support, Trump receives 38% support, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14% support, Jill Stein receives 2% support, and Cornel West receives 2% support.

...........SNIP"

[Blue Owl]

1. How much did tRump pay to skew this poll?

[WarGamer]

5. the Trump skewed polls were the online variety... like WABC or something

[duckworth969]

2. Uh, no

[applegrove]

6. But Biden is ahead.

[wryter2000]

3. Bogus. Ignore polls.

They haven't predicted anything for years. The only real data we have is actual voting, and Dems routinely outperform the polls. Sometimes by very large numbers. Watch election outcomes. Everything else is fluff.

[J_William_Ryan]

4. This is madness; unmitigated insanity.

President Biden should be far ahead in the polls.

Half of this country is clearly insane.

[anciano]

7. National presidential polls are meaningless....

presidential elections are decided in a handful of swing states by a relatively small number of voters.

[applegrove]

8. I agree but is shows Biden doing a bit better

so I think it helps.

[DemocraticPatriot]

9. Biden leads by 1, but you won't see this in the New York Times!

They only like the outliars... and the liars...

[Locutusofborg]

10. The NY Times has its own polling organization

The Siena College Poll. That's why you won't see Quinnipiac's results in the NY Times.
Here's the latest from Siena College: "The Good News for Biden in Our Battleground Polls"
An enduring group of voters prioritizes abortion over all other issues.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/us/politics/biden-battleground-polls.html

[DemocraticPatriot]

11. Because ONLY results from NYT/Siena are "news"??

[Rstrstx]

12. The poll is lining up with a lot about the race

What are the odds the NYT will be doing an article about this poll (hint: it’s an integer less than one).

I can’t remember the cross tabs of the NYT poll but this one looks like what we’ve been hearing:

Biden has a problem with younger voters but is doing well among older voters and whites with a college degree

People are unsatisfied with the way things are going in general (37-72) but much more satisfied with the ways things are going for them personally (54-33). Even 51% of Republicans are satisfied with how things are going for them personally. That is an underlooked point that may prove critical.

Black voters still immensely dislike Trump but 18% say they’ll vote for him

Latinos break for Biden by a small percentage (+5)

Immigration is a big issue to whites and Hispanics but only 2% of black voters

The economy is a big issue for younger voters but not so much for older voters

Preserving democracy is the 2nd most important issue behind the economy and clearly the most important issue for people 65+. Biden is ahead in that metric with every subgroup except Republicans and white men.

Abortion is not a terribly important issue, at 4% (this one I have issues with)

21% of voters say a Trump conviction makes them less likely to vote for him while 11% say it makes them more likely to vote for him

Their April poll had Biden and Trump tied, so a small but statistically insignificant rise for Biden

All of this jives with what pundits have been saying though they have been downplaying the preserving democracy and how well voters feel things are going for them, they seem to conveniently ignore those. If someone at the NYT penned an article about them they’d probably be shown the door.

Biden’s issues with certain demographics are real but I see his path to victory running through the traditional Blue Wall states of PA, WI and MI plus Omaha’s single electoral vote. That gets you to 270. Those places are heavy with older white and/or educated voters and the predominant minority are not Hispanics, groups Biden is doing the best with. Biden should be nailing those states down giving them whatever resources they need to bank every last vote. And except for NE those states are not run by Republicans from top to bottom. Focus like a laser in those places and if there are some leftovers maybe throw some scraps to NV and especially AZ since they have Senate races too.

[Prairie Gates]

13. If it says "tight race" that means Biden's ahead

If Trump was ahead, the headline would be Trump leads in National Poll.

[senseandsensibility]

14. I actually predicted that when I read the OP title

and was happy to be proven right.

[Prairie Gates]

15. This is getting close to the way people used to have to read PRAVDA

You don't read what it says but what it doesn't say.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

16. I though Biden had been behind Trump all along!

This is good news for me…. I was purposefully not watching the polls because it was nerve-wracking!