The Proposed Toxic Marriage Between RFK Jr. and the Libertarian Party Could Hurt Trump

[LetMyPeopleVote]

If Bob aka RFK Jr. gets the Libertarian nomination, Bob will be on the ballot in more states.

Link to tweet

https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/the-proposed-toxic-marriage-between

But despite this implosion, the Libertarian Party’s main selling point to RFK Jr. is that it is qualified for ballot access in more states than any other alternative party. The party will likely be automatically on the ballot of about 35 states. Petitions in the remaining states will likely get it closer to the mid 40s, though reaching all 50 (as the party did in 2016 and 2020) is probably out of reach, the party’s pronouncements to the contrary notwithstanding.

The allure of this ballot access prize for an unaffiliated independent like Kennedy is understandable. Thus far, Kennedy has qualified in only a handful of states for the general election ballot. In other words, even if he had a well-funded and well-organized effort, as an independent, Kennedy would likely manage to get on fewer state ballots than as the Libertarian Party nominee......

Many have assumed that given the Kennedy name and left-of-center background, he poses a threat to Biden. He’s certainly much more interested in attacking Biden than his other presumptive opponent, reliably pulling his punches when asked about Trump.

But there are reasons to doubt RFK Jr. in 2024 would be good for Trump. Kennedy has now firmly ensconced himself in the populist right, pandering to culture warriors and the MAGA-inclined with his anti-woke, anti-vax, pro-gun, and border enforcement messaging. Hence, it’s not clear how many potential Kennedy voters would have Biden as their second choice. Moreover, running as a Libertarian candidate would make him even more harmful to Trump given that that label reliably tends to pull more votes from Republican candidates than from Democrats.

Polls at this point can be misleading, too. For complicated reasons, third party candidates almost always poll much better than they ever actually perform. Simply prompting voters with the option increases how respondents select it. Moreover, his appeal to Democrats is going to be eroded further if more prominent third-party or independent options, who are genuinely more to the left than him, such as Cornel West and Jill Stein, are on the ballot. Indeed, polls of Wisconsin voters by the respected Marquette University Law School found that Kennedy pulls more support from Republicans than Democrats when Stein and West are offered as alternatives.

TFG was at this convention to try to keep Bob from being the Libertarian nominee

Please remember to not to refer to Bob as anything other than as Bob

Link to tweet

[CousinIT]

1. I could see that. I have libertarians in my family. I still refer to them as MAGA because..

...they are. Libertarians are Republicans who don't want to admit it. They are as clueless and grievance-driven as MAGA, with no difference.

They most always vote for the Libertarian: Ben Carson last time, I think. They'll vote for RFKJr, write in a name, or not vote.

I am embarrassed to be related to them. Ugh.

[Blue Owl]

2. Steve Bannon's legacy