Watch Out For The Polls

[gab13by13]

I guarantee we will see polls that claim the guilty verdict helped TSF, they will be lying.

The guilty verdict hurts TSF at the polls.

It would be like TSF saying his doctor results came back showing that he had syphilis but then my polls went up.

[Groundhawg]

1. I am not a pollster so i'm not qualified to make a statement like this.

[gab13by13]

3. You don't have to be a pollster,

just look for patterns. History usually repeats itself, not to mention TSF just got caught paying people to give him favorable polling.

Everything has to be staged for TSF.

[Groundhawg]

5. you do if you want to educate the public on polls.

[gab13by13]

6. How many times have polls underestimated how well the Democrat would do?

How many times have polls underestimated how well the Republican candidate will do?

Why is it that polls "almost always" overestimate how well the Republican is going to do?

I am looking at the races for the past year and a half and most polls have badly missed how the Democrat was going to do.

I am willing to learn why that is?

[stopdiggin]

12. which still says NOTHING

about the effect of the convictions on the polls
( other than the fact that you have forecast them - then discounted them - because, polls )

[Dave Bowman]

2. Syphilis would explain a lot.

When untreated:

"Early symptoms include mood disturbances such as irritability, personality changes, changes in sleep habits, and forgetfulness. Late symptoms include labile mood, memory and judgment impairment, confusion, delusions, and seizures. Psychiatric disease including depression, delirium, mania, and psychosis can also result."

[ThoughtCriminal]

4. Carefully chosen questions and population

"55% of respondents say the conviction on charges against Trump by a New York jury make them more likely to support the former President" *

* according to a survey of patrons in a rural Alabama diner.

[gab13by13]

7. Thank you, made me laugh out loud.

[gab13by13]

8. New Poll, Hot off the presses from the New York Post,

Independents in NY are shifting to TSF, Biden only leads TSF by 7 points.

Looking at history -

The last Republican to win New York was Reagan over Mondale by 8 points.
2016 Hillary over TSF by 22.5 points
2020 Biden over TSF by 23.2 points.

Boy oh boy I'm getting scared.

I will give anyone who wants to bet 8 points and I will take Joe for 100 dollars for charity. PM me if you believe the poll to be accurate and want to bet.

[keithbvadu2]

9. There are many polls... Pick the one you like and swear by it... Swear at the others.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. Don't watch the polls, watch the trends

I’m sure there are a ton of pollsters rushing to capture voter sentiment in the immediate aftermath of the verdict. These polls will produce lots of headlines, but I think it will be more useful and informative to wait about a month, then look back and see what the general trends have been (excluding outliers like the deeply flawed NYT, of course).

Say June 26, just before the first debate - look back and see what the trends have been.

Then, on the 27th comes the debate, and on July 11, sentencing, and on July 15, the convention. I, for one, will be very interested to see what the trends are leading into the convention, especially in the swing states.

This election could be in a very different place six weeks from now.

[PeaceWave]

11. CNN had Trump at +6 five weeks ago. Harvard/Harris reiterated that margin two weeks ago.

I'll be watching those two specific polls to see how they change in the weeks to come.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

[gab13by13]

13. +6 for the country?

Give me 5 points for 100 bucks for charity. PM me if you want the bet.

[Wednesdays]

14. There will be only one poll that matters.

See my sig line. And GOTV!