One way Judge Merchan could handle sentencing:

[Irish_Dem]

1. He could put Trump on probation with conditions.

2. Violations of those conditions would mean Trump goes to prison.

3. This puts the jail keys in Trump's hands.

4. Trump decides if he goes to prison or not.

ETA: This is possibly win win.
Trump either violates the probation conditions and goes to jail.
Or he follows the rules for once in his life and we get a break from his bad behavior.

[unblock]

1. I think this is a fairly likely scenario.

He has defamed Carroll more than once, and violated the gag order more than once.

He'll certainly test the limits of the probation conditions.

[Irish_Dem]

2. If Merchan will not jail Trump, it is the only fair option.

Yes Trump will most likely violate the conditions of probation.

[Salviati]

53. And let him know in no uncertain terms, that the sentencing is the warning.

Any attempt to test the boundaries by this habitual line stepper will be met with instant revocation of probation. There will be no further warnings.

[Irish_Dem]

66. Yes the conditions have to be in writing and made public.

The judge has to ask Trump directly if he has read the conditions and understands them.
And Trump has to say yes verbally and sign the document.

[durablend]

63. And then cue the further outrage from the right

"WHO THE HELL DOES THE JUDGE THINK HE IS?!?!?"

[Irish_Dem]

70. They would be angrier if Merchan jails Trump.

[jmowreader]

119. I can't be worried about "anger from the right"

If Judge Merchan puts him in jail they'll be angry.

If he puts Trump on probation they'll be angry.

I am almost certain that if the government declared Trump innocent of all his federal charges, ordered Governors Hochul and Kemp to pardon him for his state charges, imprisoned every elected Democrat nationwide, abolished abortion, abolished taxes, declared that turning the public schools into madrassas didn't violate the First Amendment, and declared Trump president for life they'd still be pissed. Being pissed is the default condition for any Republican.

[tavernier]

135. Nailed it.

[Eliot Rosewater]

3. If this country elects him even just by electoral college after this

I will have to start looking up the rules about Canada and Australia, because it just simply won’t be safe to live here.

[Walleye]

4. I was just reading the Canada doesn't allow convicted felons into the country. That might be a good choice

[Captain Zero]

46. Trump WILL NOT be allowed in Canada from this point forward. Biden should use it.

Trump persona non grata, either as president or as a "businessman", because of his felony convictions.

What other countries have that rule for visitors?

Biden should use that in the campaign.

[Old Crank]

57. Here you go.

Where Trump can't go.

https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/countries-that-dont-allow-felony-convictions-travelers

[usaf-vet]

65. Thanks for the list.

[mountain grammy]

107. How strange.

Russia is not on the list. There ya go donnie! All that wonderful vodka. maybe you'll learn to drink

[NanaCat]

85. I'm sure they'll allow a waiver if he must be in Canada

For some reason. As POtuS.

People like him always get exceptions.

[onenote]

115. Not just people like him: diplomats, entertainers, sports figures

The decision typically is made on a case-by-case basis

[intrepidity]

6. Safe in what way?

I think I understand but want to be sure.

[unblock]

16. We've already made plans.

My daughter and I are eligible for citizenship in Austria, ironically, owing to my mother and grandparents escape from fascism there.

Israel is theoretically a possibility as well, but that never seems overly safe....

[kairos12]

45. I'm afraid at this point

I have to paraphrase Groucho and say I would never go to a country that accepts Americans.

[erronis]

48. Very wise restriction!

And I don't like visiting countries that have a lot of them, either. Of course, the Brits and Scandinavians, and now the Russians are everywhere.

[mountain grammy]

109. Now that's someone I wish was still here

love that quote, so funny cause, well......

[BonnieJW]

55. I'm already making those plans

Toronto. I have friends there
My youngest daughter and I will move there and live together until she establishes herself in a new job. Eventually my other 2 daughters will join us with their families. I will also transfer my funds to a Canadian institution since no on can predict what will happen to financial institutions in this country.

[Eliot Rosewater]

73. Yes, rarely talked about but our investments will possibly turn to shit in a short amount of time.

The only alternative to moving is hoping CA could become an independent state and live there.

[Walleye]

5. He has to be punished, not indulged

I would like to see his travel restricted, they would take that one all the way to the Supreme Court

[Irish_Dem]

18. I agree, but Merchan has indulged Trump and said he is aware of his presidential status.

[ancianita]

50. He has. But that's changed. Now he also knows that tsf's got no other status but that of a convicted felon.

Merchan is also likely aware that when considering sentencing, tsf's breaking gag orders over 10 times offsets anything tsf's done as a candidate to earn positive consideration.

[Hugin]

59. The core of Justice in the United States is focused on "Reform"...

and not Punishment.

If I remember correctly, Ben Franklin was largely responsible for the situation.

I know “Reform” in the same sentence with Trumpanzees makes me laugh too.

[NanaCat]

86. Standard probation automatically restricts travel

Everyone on probation needs permission from a probation officer to leave a particular jurisdiction. Different places do it differently, but the boundaries are usually at the county or state level.

I'm sure he'll get it for any travel he needs to do for campaigning.

[leftieNanner]

7. Immediately to prison if he violates!

No hearings. No appeals.

[Irish_Dem]

20. Right, I hope Merchan does not keep giving Trump sternly worded warnings.

[NanaCat]

87. I do hope you realise that a quick trip to jail

Is already SOP for violations of probation.

Really.

[leftieNanner]

103. Yes.

I just hope they don't continue to bend over backwards to coddle him

[onenote]

116. No due process?

I thought DUers were supporters of the Constitution.

[bluestarone]

8. GREAT thoughts here!!

I like it! EDIT to add I hope the judge reads DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND General discussion!!

[Irish_Dem]

26. "Hey your honor judge, I am at leisure to give you any help you need."

[NanaCat]

89. He doesn't need to do that

I realise not everyone is a lawyer, but some things about our legal system would amount to general knowledge if people paid attention to even their telly shows.

Existing probation rules cover nearly all of the things people are 'demanding' here, like travel restrictions and fast trips to the nick if they violate terms of probation.

One would think after the literally millions of hours of top-watched cop shows and courtroom dramas, much of it based in actual US jurisprudence, that Americans would know these very basic elements of how probation works.

But clearly not.

[Conjuay]

143. Some of us don't watch TV

And if we do it isn't to see some tedious police "drama".
If I don't hear someone like David Attenborough narrating, I'm not watching.

[AnrothElf]

9. I think Trump is very likely to get jail time.

Cohen already got 3 years for his participation in this *exact same crime*. He wasn't even the leader.

IANAL but I'll be surprised if he doesn't get the full 4 years.

Judges have a lot of discretion when sentencing -- within the dictates of the law, of course. He can take the totality of Trump's entire life into account. Including 10x+ violations of the gag order.

That's not punishing him again for the same crime. It's taking those 10 violations into account along with the rest of Trump's life as patterns of behavior.

Trump's lack of remorse by itself could prompt Merchan to impose jail time. Then throw the rest of his miserable life on the pile?

I think he'll go to prison.

[pandr32]

12. He is clearly unfit for society.

I think he will receive a prison sentence, too. He deserves one. The judge can see he is a raging menace who has no remorse whatsoever. I am thinking two-three years and then probation.
Merchan is not going to let him skate.

[AnrothElf]

19. Cohen got 3 years for his mere participation in the crimes Trump was found guilty of...

You know for a fact that prosecutors are going to lean heavily on this fact. It's precedent, and precedent weighs heavily during sentencing: "How were other felons in similar circumstances sentenced for these crimes?"

Cohen's standing right there. Not just similar circumstances... but the SAME circumstances.

Would Merchan sentence the leader of a criminal conspiracy to less time than one of his minions? If Cohen served 3 years for following Trump's orders, how many years should Trump get for GIVING those orders?

You better believe the prosecutors will be hammering this point home, and Merchan will have to consider it.

Just sayin'... I'll be surprised if Merchan doesn't throw the fucking book at him.

[onenote]

14. The crimes Cohen was guilty of committing each had longer maximum sentences than the charges against Trump.

And the main charge against him was tax evasion based on his having concealed more than $4 million in personal income from the IRS.

[AnrothElf]

22. True. Cohen could've gotten much more than 3 years. Trump can get 4 max.

But judges look at the totality of the convict's life during sentencing. They look at the big picture.

And even if Cohen was convicted for different crimes, it was in the furtherance of the same conspiracy.

Just sayin' I think he'll throw the book at him. Obviously this is all speculation, and we will have to wait and see what actually happens, but that's my 2 cents.

[onenote]

23. Was the tax evasion part of the same conspiracy?

[jimfields33]

32. No. It was a business he had in Chicago

Totally separate from trump. I am unsure how the IRS found out though.

[getagrip_already]

102. Cohen wasnt convicted... he was railroaded into a plea deal

They basically gave him 48 hours to agree to plead guilty to those charges (the tax charges were bogus) or they would hit him and his wife with dozens of counts that could put them both away for decades.

The judge chose that sentance based on the charges he plead to.

According to Cohen, he had no choice if he wanted to keep his wife out of jail. They filed joint tax returns so she could be charged along with him.

[W_HAMILTON]

100. And Cohen pleaded guilty through a plea deal, whereas Trump was convicted by a jury.

Plea deals usually result in much more lenient punishments than jury convictions.

[Irish_Dem]

15. In the plan I outlined, Trump most likely gets jail time.

But the judge does it in stages.
First probation, then jail.
And Trump does it to himself.

I think it will go down easier with the most of the public.

[LymphocyteLover]

52. that's my guess... though I won't put a ton of money on it

[LetMyPeopleVote]

60. Martha Stewart got five months

Link to tweet

[Irish_Dem]

72. And she didn't complain and whine about it or point fingers.

She served her time like a grown up.
Helped fellow inmates learn marketable skills.
Then came out and put it behind her.
Rebuilt her career and knocked it out of the park.

[onenote]

117. Each of the crimes she was found guilty of had a longer maximum sentence than the crimes Trump was convicted of

In addition, Trump was found guilty of breaking one law, albeit multiple times. Stewart was convicted of breaking three different laws: conspiracy, obstruction, and making false statements.

And after she was convicted she issued the following statement that "I am obviously distressed by the jury's verdict but I continue to take comfort in knowing that I have the confidence and enduring support of my family and friends. I will appeal the verdict and continue to fight to clear my name. I believe in the fairness of the judicial system and remain confident that I will ultimately prevail."

Finally she fought, albeit unsuccessfully, to be sent to prison in Florida or Connecticut instead of Alderson, West Virginia.

[NanaCat]

92. LOL

Well, you keep thinking that remorse or any of that will matter.

The standard sentence for a first time offender convicted of a crime like this is probation and possibly fines. Remorse doesn't enter into it, really. Making sure the sentence sticks is what judges care about, and they won't risk getting one overtuned on appeal because they were harsher than the standard to one particular vexatious litigant.

Few judges believe that remorse drivel as it is. I mean, come on, judges see criminals every day and they know how many of them lie to their faces about remorse in the hopes of getting a lighter sentence. That's why most judges consider the serving of the sentence as the part that will do more to make them feel remorse, rather than the sentencing itself.

Judges aren't nearly as stupid about criminal behaviour as people seem to think.

Really.

[MOMFUDSKI]

10. He should get 30 days of incarceration for

violating the gag and then home confinement with a monitor

[onenote]

11. He's already been penalized for violating the gag order.

If based on alleged new violations, the DA would have to file a new motion based on those alleged violations, which would then trigger a hearing at which Merchan would have to conclude that the alleged behavior violated the gag order "beyond a reasonable doubt."

[bluestarone]

17. The judge could re-enforce them tho, right?

In his sentencing guild lines, along with Irish Dems suggestions, i mean.

[Irish_Dem]

28. I think the gag order is over when the trial is over.

I think new conditions would have to be set as part of the conditions of probation.

[getagrip_already]

101. I think the gag order is part of his bond conditions

And will last until his sentencing hearing.

That's what the people with law degrees on my little screen said. I don't know myself.

[Irish_Dem]

105. Yes the point is that new conditions will be set at the sentencing hearing.

Gag order may or may not roll over into a condition of probation.

[hlthe2b]

25. There were remaining alleged violations upon which Justice Merchan did not rule but rather

indicated he would address them at a later date (or presumedly the end of the trial).

[Irish_Dem]

29. Do you know what these alleged violations are?

I wonder if Merchan will address them?

[hlthe2b]

35. I don't have time to research, sorry, but I can recall it being reported in the transcripts in the

week or so before the Tuesday summations. Mention was made in MSM--either MSNBC or the news accounts I read during that time.

[Irish_Dem]

37. So there were more violations than we knew about at the time.

[hlthe2b]

38. At least allegations. On May 6 the prosecution sought to bring some of that up in cross of Trump IF he had

decided to testify.

[Irish_Dem]

40. Maybe it will come out at time of sentencing.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

54. Ugh. 310 pages in the transcript for May 6...

https://pdfs.nycourts.gov/PeopleVs.DTrump-71543/transcripts/5-06-2024.pdf

[onenote]

121. Nothing in the transcript suggests there are other alleged violations not yet ruled on.

There were three motions for Trump to be sanctioned for violating the gag order. The first cited 3 instances. The second cited 7 more. Those two motions were the subject of a hearing and an order finding beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump had violated the gag order 9 times and Merchan fined Trump $1000 per violation. On April 25, the DA moved for sanctions for one additional violation. That violation was addressed in a hearing and an order issued on May 6 imposing another $1000 fine and threatening imprisonment if there were additional violations. There have been no motions alleging additional violations and there is nothing in the May 6 transcript to suggest there had been.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

126. I searched it for "order" and only found a short discussion of those you point out.

I didn't read the whole thing.

In case anyone missed the links to the rest:
https://ww2.nycourts.gov/press/index.shtml
https://www.nycourts.gov/LegacyPDFS/press/PDFs/Trump-Verdict-Sheet.pdf
https://pdfs.nycourts.gov/PeopleVs.DTrump-71543/transcripts/
https://pdfs.nycourts.gov/PeopleVs.DTrump-71543/Evidence/
https://ww2.nycourts.gov/people-v-donald-j-trump-criminal-37026

[MOMFUDSKI]

42. As the days rolled by the press pointed out

the gag infractions

[Irish_Dem]

43. Yes we know about those. I thought maybe there were others we didn't know about.

[onenote]

122. The press alleging violations is meaningless. It is up to the DA to decide whether to seek a ruling from the court.

And the DA has not sought sanctions for any additional violations alleged by the press or by "experts" commenting on social media.

[onenote]

118. Who alleged these additional violations? Did the DA move for sanctions for these alleged additional violations?

Due process requires a hearing and a determination that the violation occurred beyond a reasonable doubt. I will be very surprised if Merchan cites alleged violations that the state didn't raise in a timely motion as a factor in sentencing -- he isn't supposed to be both prosecutor and judge.

[hlthe2b]

120. The prosecutors..and don't be condescending. I know quite well the issues.

[onenote]

123. I'd love to see a citation to where the prosecutors alleged additional violations of the gag order.

[hlthe2b]

124. So would I... Let me know when you find it. I heard it discussed on either MSNBC or CNN a week or more

ago. Each day's transcripts are hundreds of pages long, so happy hunting.

[onenote]

125. It was suggested that it came up in the May 6 transcript. A word search is quick and easy. And shows nothing.

Given how firm Merchan was in his warning on May 6 that additional violations could result in Trump ending up in jail, it would be very odd if the DA suggested there additional violations and the judge said nothing and no one reported it.

[hlthe2b]

127. No. I posted that. The prosecutors on May 6 brought up his cumulative violations as a topic they

wanted to (possibly) broach in any cross-examination of Trump as they contemplated the possibility of his testifying. This was in a bench hearing with the judge. I do not know if that was the date they brought up additional breaches/violations of the gag order or not or whether it was several days later. His repeated violations were pretty damned regular, but that would take extensive searches of his violative comments over several weeks--something I do not have time or intend to do--or to search thousands of pages of court transcripts. I told you what I heard discussed by the legal analysts in real-time after one of the several bench hearings at the end of the court day. Whether or not it was May 6 or days later, I do not know. Take it for what you will and believe whatever you wish.

[onenote]

128. The May 6 transcript is easily searched and there is nothing remotely resembling what you describe.

Not only is it word searchable but there is a word index. Searching the words violation, gag, contempt, cross, cross-examination.... you will find nothing at all indicating the prosecution wanted to broach cumulative violations of the gag order in any cross examination of trump if he testified. I'm not sure where you got the impression this happened, but it is clearly provable that it didn't.

[hlthe2b]

133. MSNBC blog references the dispute about Trump cross including violation discussion.

What Merchan’s latest gag order ruling shows about his handling of Trump’s case
Other defendants would have been jailed by now. Trump can’t plausibly argue, in the court of law or public opinion, that the proceedings have been unfair to him.
May 6, 2024, 2:16 PM MDT
Joran Rubin
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white-house/deadline-legal-blog/trump-trial-gag-order-jail-merchan-rcna150857

Indeed, Monday’s gag order ruling is the latest instance of Merchan not giving the prosecution everything it has asked for. On Friday, prosecutors argued that they should be able to cross-examine Trump on his then-most-recent gag order violations if he testifies. The defense argued that it would be unfair to bring that up in front of the jury. Merchan agreed, reasoning that it would be hard for the jury to look past the fact that the same judge presiding over the case had held Trump in contempt.

I believe the on-air reporting this day, discussed it. So it was discussed by media at least on this blog on May 6 but as I stated earlier it may well have been officially discussed in court earlier or later. If you want to keep searching, I was likewise following the daily NYT real-time blog transcripts and the CNN one occasionally as well or-- you can assume I am wrong. I remember the media discussion that referenced the bench conference. Nothing else. And the media did report that the prosecution advanced an argument for his violations to be discussed with the judge if Trump testified.

[onenote]

144. Thanks. This helps clear things up a bit. But it also confirms there was no discussion of new violations.

The transcript from Friday May 3 can be found here: https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/911fffbad09d3299/2fcaff60-full.pdf
The index indicates the pages where the gag order and the issue of Trump testifying is discussed: Pages 2035 - 2047 and 2243 - 2246.

That discussion focuses first on the scope of the gag order -- this is where the judge reminds Trump that the gag order doesn't prevent him from testifying. It then returns to the issue at the end of the day where the judge considers whether, if Trump testifies, the prosecution can bring up the court's ruling finding nine instances of Trump having committed gag order violations. This was before the court's ruling on Monday, May 6, finding one more violation and clarifying the scope of the gag order. The issue is whether evidence of the court's orders should be allowed as a means of attacking Trumps credibility as a witness or whether it would be unduly prejudicial to allow the jury to be told about those orders. Judge Merchan sided with the defense and declared that the prosecution, on cross if Trump testified, could not ask him about the contempt rulings.

At no point is there any suggestion that there are additional instances of contempt not addressed by the prior order finding nine violations and as previosly discussed, on May 6, the day the court ruled on the one remaining alleged violation, there was no discussion of any other alleged violations

And for what its worth, I did a word search of the transcripts for every day of the trial from May 3 until the end and there is no such allegation in any of those transcripts.

[H2O Man]

13. Very good.

Recommended.

[onenote]

21. The process in the case of an alleged probation violation

The probation officer notifies the court of an alleged violation. The judge may issue a bench warrant for the arrest of the person allegedly violating probation and/or will schedule a "Violation of Probation" hearing. If the court concludes probation was violated, the options include cancelling probation and reinstitution the original sentence; extending the period of probation, adding new conditions. Depending on the nature of the violation, New York judges can and often give someone a warning the first time they violate probation.

[Hugin]

24. +1

Lay it out there.

[Irish_Dem]

31. I assume Merchan will give Trump a couple of warnings before he jails him for probation violations.

And give him new conditions.

That would make it easier for the public to accept the process.

[Orrex]

62. Is "heave the offender into a live volcano" one of the options?

Should be.

[TexasTowelie]

27. I am hoping that Judge Merchan does put Trump in jail.

Last edited Sat Jun 1, 2024, 01:07 PM - Edit history (1)

The judge has essentially sacrificed his personal freedom when the trial began and regardless of the outcome due to the devotion of his MAGA cultists. It would be ironic for Trump to retain a greater degree of freedom than the judge.

One thing to note is that SCOTUS is expected to render a decision about Trump's immunity in the J6 DC case by June 30. Meanwhile, the sentencing hearing for the New York case is on July 11 so the Judge Merchan will know whether the other cases will proceed to trial.

I think that Judge Merchan will give him a suspended sentence which is similar to being on probation, but it also specifies the length of time imprisonment Trump would face if he violates the conditions of probation. This allows Judge Merchan to "kick the can" and not be the judge that throws Trump in jail, but also appear to administer harsh punishment. I suspect that Judge Chutkan will receive the privilege of putting Trump behind bars.

[jimfields33]

34. Sacrificed his personal freedom?

It’s his job. He didn’t volunteer for it. He was voluntold.

[Irish_Dem]

41. I think this is about "personal safety."

Most people's jobs don't entail being physically threatened by an ex-president
who has a huge hostile cult following. And the judge's family was threatened as well.

[Sneederbunk]

30. Serving 60 days should be a condition of probation.

TSF definitely needs a taste of incarceration. Have it served immediately upon sentencing.

[Irish_Dem]

33. This would be good shock therapy and force Trump to focus.

[mackdaddy]

36. Trump should have to serve exactly the same sentence that Cohen served.

Including the 51 days of solitary confinement in a cell with a broken window.

Trump weaponized the DOJ with Barr's help. And a lot shorter than the 40 years he could get.

Actually this is shorter than what he could get for JUST the gag order violations.

[Irish_Dem]

39. Yes Trump should get at the minimum the same sentence, if not more.

I believe Cohen was in prison for three years.

And yes confinement for 51 days.

[Think. Again.]

44. Any conditions and the repercussions of violations of those conditions....

....such as the threat of jail time, should be made publicly clear at sentencing so there are no questions later and immediately enforced before his minions or the media have a chance to chime in.

[Irish_Dem]

67. Yes all in writing and made public.

There can be no doubt about any of it.

[ColinC]

47. The gag order demonstrates he is capable of following the rules

Albeit reluctantly. This could be a plausible scenario.

[Irish_Dem]

68. Only after stern warnings and a fine.

Trump did not follow the gag order right away.

Of course Merchan could give Trump repeated warnings about the probation violations too.

[ColinC]

91. ...only after stern warnings and a fine. Absolutely.

And the very clear reality he will go to jail if he didn’t. But that demonstrates two things to me: 1) he does not actually want to go to jail (as many believe is the case) and 2) if it is clear he will go to jail by not following the rules, he will absolutely follow the rules.

Now that he is a convicted felon, it may be more daunting the reality that if he doesn’t follow the rules, he will go to jail.

The likelihood is he still doesn’t believe jail is even a remote possibility because he is a special little baby, so he will continue to behave like he will not go to jail until it is impressed on him again he will go to jail.

[Irish_Dem]

93. I agree that he doesn't want to go to jail.

And he we saw that he could follow the gag order rules when the next step was prison.

That said, I am also of the opinion that Trump is decompensating in front of our eyes
and he is more out of control. So he may or may not be able to follow the rules.

Time will tell.

He will hate having to follow any rules.

[ColinC]

96. Might as well just send the sad sack to jail

Trying to hope he doesn’t get worse will only make things worse in my opinion…

Hopefully he gets sentenced to actual prison.

[Irish_Dem]

97. He may be going to prison one way or the other.

We just don't know the exact route yet.

[AdamGG]

49. Would Trump view violating the probation conditions and being given jail time

as a positive thing to motivate his base to turn out in record numbers to place him in the presidency to 'own the libs'?

Ultimately, Dump needs to be jailed for a longer period of time on the federal Jan. 6th and documents charges. This case should just be an appetizer.

[Irish_Dem]

71. We would find out if this is his goal.

If he goes out and directly disobeys the probation rules it looks like he wants to go to jail.

To raise money and get votes.

I am thinking that Trump really does not want to go to jail.

[LymphocyteLover]

51. Yeah, but he's going to break the rules and HE ALREADY BROKE THE RULES IN THE TRIAL

[Irish_Dem]

74. Yes, so Trump will go directly to jail, do not pass go.

[LymphocyteLover]

83. Praying!

[nakocal]

56. Jail is the ONLY thing that will work

to stop Trump from destroying the country.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

58. Here is a suggestion

Link to tweet

[Irish_Dem]

75. Very unlikely the judge will do this.

Merchan has shown respect for the office of president.

He is not going to humiliate Trump this way with trash pick up.

It would also look vindictive and mean minded to the public and appellate court.

The Supreme Court would be furious and might even do what Johnson wants and step in.

[GPV]

112. Yeah, I figure he'll still be Teflon Don. Get the rich white collar treatment.

[Irish_Dem]

114. Yes he is going to get special treatment, this is certain.

We just don't know how special.

[Martin68]

61. I totally agree. Probation would take ammo away from his supporters, but he'd be guaranteed to break the conditions of

his probation, and he'd end up in prison anyway.

[Irish_Dem]

76. Yes exactly.

The cult could not complain about Trump getting probation.
They will be happy.

Then Trump puts himself in prison and the cult looks idiotic when they whine.

[Mr. Ected]

64. I'm afraid that's postponing the inevitable...and yet again undermining our system of criminal justice

The judge either plays into his/their hand or he does not.

A future probation violation would be handled with the same timidity as the enforcement of gag orders.

I don't want Judge Merchan to act any differently towards Trump than he would for another citizen similarly charged and convicted.

The ball has been in Trump's court since Day One. Giving it back to him at this point is an admission that the penal code doesn't apply to white men of a certain age and stature.

[Irish_Dem]

77. Yes postponing it is the major point. It is a slower descent into prison.

The cult will be happy with probation.
Trump then puts himself in prison

And appellate courts like things done in stages.

[C_U_L8R]

69. For a single felony, sure, a slap on the wrist, why not.

But this is THIRTY FOUR felonies. Plus repeated contempt, bad posttrial behavior and several pending federal trials. This guy is on freaking crime spree and the only effective and valid way to stop him is to sentence him to serious reform time in a penitentiary. Anything less is a travesty and a horrible precedent.

[Irish_Dem]

79. I agree, and with this plan Trump ends up in jail.

[calimary]

78. This wouldn't be a problem if I'd been given the keys...

Every time I see his damn face, in the back of my mind I hear chants of "Lock him up!"

[Irish_Dem]

80. Right quite a few of us would love the keys to put Trump in supermax.

Permanent solitary

[samnsara]

81. i want the judge to announce 'X amount of time in jail'....long pause so trump can wet himself..

..'suspended'...then the conditions but make sure trump knows if he effs up its to the slammer

[Irish_Dem]

82. This is good.

[NanaCat]

84. All probation has conditions

Regular reporting to a probation officer, not committing any crimes while out on probation, not leaving a jurisdiction without permission of the probation officer, etc etc.

That's part of the deal

Do you mean special conditions?

[Irish_Dem]

95. Well yes of course. Probation has automatic conditions.

The point is that they must be clearly spelled out to Trump and he must acknowledge he understands them.
The public must be informed of those conditions.
And yes there should be special conditions about protecting the jury and witnesses.
And the families of the judge and prosecutors.
And prohibitions about violence.

[Joinfortmill]

88. He should be under house arrest. One house only, Trump Tower.

[Irish_Dem]

98. Yes Trump Tower will be better.

But he still has servants waiting on him hand and foot.
And access to his drugs and hookers.

[bucolic_frolic]

90. Do they have Adult Day Care for felons? Nap time, story time, rant time? /nt

[Irish_Dem]

106. I am sure the Bureau of Prisons will get right on it.

[LLC]

94. I agree with this, but with one little addition

No McDonald’s hamberders.


Never, ever again.

[Irish_Dem]

99. Yep, only prison food which will go flying in the air.

[Gore1FL]

104. He's a contrarian.

He makes the statements that he makes for he waves it creates.

[Irish_Dem]

108. Yes Trump is oppositional and defiant.

That is why he is apt to break probation rules.

[Emile]

110. I heard Tump will have to do an intelligent test for his parole

officer.

[Irish_Dem]

130. A probation officer cannot administer an IQ test.

Nor can they evaluate dementia or mental status.

Unless they are also a trained mental health professional.

I would refuse to do so if I were Trump.
His IQ score is not necessary for sentencing.

[Emile]

136. MSNBC were talking about it. I'm

sure a mental health professional would administer the test for the parole officer. The parole officer will release the findings to the judge to determine his sentence.

[Irish_Dem]

137. This should be very interesting. If I were Trump I would refuse to do it.

And the judge is opening up a huge can of worms that may be a problem for him.

[Emile]

139. Do you think he has that option to refuse a court order?

[Irish_Dem]

140. Yes of course he does: he is rich, male, white and special.

He and his attorneys can take it to appeals court and delay for some time.
He can rightly argue that it has nothing to do with sentencing.
And that it will hurt his campaign.
The SC may agree with him.

Trump can also screw around and play games with the psych testing.
The psychologist cannot make him answer the questions, take the tests, or cooperate.
Or he can give nonsense answers and play games.

The judge does not need this information to sentence Trump.
I believe the judge is making a big mistake if he goes this route.

[Emile]

141. I think it's common practice in NY for

convicted felons to have a psychological test.

[Irish_Dem]

142. "A psychological test."

There are many psychological tests. I wonder which one.

[onenote]

145. You're assuming the court will order such an evaluation. They won't.

From the relevant New York statute regarding pre-sentence investigations:

"Physical and mental examinations. Whenever information is available with respect to the defendant's physical and mental condition, the
pre-sentence investigation must include the gathering of such information. In the case of a felony or a class A misdemeanor ... the court may order that the defendant undergo a thorough physical or mental examination.

In other words, Trump can submit a doctor's report to satisfy a pre-sentencing investigation unless the court orders a separate evaluation. And the court isn't going to order such an evaluation as part of the pre-sentence investigation of someone convicted of a non-violent, financial crime.

[Emile]

146. Judges order psychiatric evaluations

to determine whether the convicted felon is capable of understanding the charges against them. From what I understand this is fairly common. I'm not assuming anything, this was a discussion I heard on MSNBC.

[onenote]

147. I'm not assuming either: I checked with my law firm partners who handle white collar crimes in New York

They confirmed that persons convicted of non-violent, financial crimes are not routinely given psych exams. Where such exams are given, it typically involves a case where the defendant has been convicted of a drug or alcohol related crime, a crime of violence, and/or has a history of confinement or treatment for mental health issues.

[Emile]

148. Judge Juan M. Merchan runs a mental health court.

So who knows. . .

[Straw Man]

111. Trump will undoubtedly violate.

Then, when incarcerated, he and his supporters will scream "Unfair!"

I'm tempted to say just cut to the chase and lock him up immediately. MAGATS will never admit that he is lying in the bed that he himself made. Giving him a chance might look better to those who are neutral, but I don't know how many "neutrals" are still out there.

[Irish_Dem]

131. The judge might want to send Trump to jail in stages.

This is more than fair for the appellate court.
And better optics for the public.

[liberalla]

113. I like this suggestion.

[TBF]

129. I think it's likely it will be probation and/or house arrest -

I can't imagine making the Secret Service sit in jail with him for a real sentence. It's just a very awkward situation.

Not that I wouldn't like to see him rot, but I have a feeling they will be more pragmatic.

[Irish_Dem]

132. The SS can just turn over custody to the Bureau of Prisons.

Should not be a problem for either side on that point.

And they can find a secure facility that meets all requirements.

We are the richest country in the history of the world.
With vast resources.

I think we can manage to figure out how to put one man in jail.

If the officials say it cannot be done, they are lying to us and playing games.

[TBF]

149. Cool - I didn't know they could do that.

I did know Eugene Debs ran for president from jail, but he wasn't a former president. Of course he was a democrat, and then a socialist with his vast union accolades. Republicans are only too happy to jail leftists, but heaven help us if we try to jail one of them.

[Buns_of_Fire]

134. TCF won't make it five steps outside the hearing room

before he violates some provision of the order. Then they can just turn him around, lead him back inside, and immediately turn him over to the jailers. Shortest probation in history!

[Irish_Dem]

138. Merchan will do the stern lecture routine a couple of times first.

It is all going to be performative for the appellate court.
Then Trump eventually gets the correct consequence.