"One group" ditching Trump: Independents

[marmar]

(Salon) Donald Trump's allies have insisted that his criminal conviction in New York would actually help him in the campaign, arguing that the public would buy the former president's claim that the prosecution amounted to political persecution. But a new poll raises serious doubts about that prediction and suggest Trump has lost ground among independent voters since the verdict came down.

A Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll released Monday found that 22 percent of respondents said that Trump's conviction is important to how they will vote and makes them less inclined to support the former president, compared to just 6 percent who said the conviction affects how they plan to vote and makes them more likely to support Trump.

Trump's recent conviction had a similar result among independent voters, with 21% reporting it made them less likely to support him and factored into their voting plans. That percentage is notable given that even minor shifts in independent and swing-voters could sway the election if the race is close.

Such a shift also isn't surprising given what researchers know about "notoriously unpredictable" independent voters, according to Thom Reilly, a professor of public affairs at Arizona State University and co-director of ASU's Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy. ...............(more)

https://www.salon.com/2024/06/19/it-doesnt-take-a-big-swing-expert-says-one-group-ditching-over-conviction--independents/

[et tu]

1. independents plus are a large voting group

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/01/12/voters-who-identify-as-independents-skyrocket---as-democrats-and-republicans-dwindle/

i posted about this before~

[Rocknation]

2. You can't "ditch" what you never had, duh dot com

Last edited Wed Jan 21, 2026, 12:58 AM - Edit history (5)

Independents are the reason why Romney lost to Obama:




And the reason why DuhDon should be expecting to lose the popular vote for the third time in a row. From 2016:



From 2020:


One thing DuhDon is truthful about is getting more votes than any other incumbent U.S. presidential candidate in 2020. What he isn't truthful about is Biden also getting more votes than any other incumbent U.S. presidential candidate in 2020!


Rocknation

[oldsoftie]

7. I try to point out that "not voted" number to all who think Biden couldn't get 81M

1/3 of eligible voters STILL didnt vote

[groundloop]

3. His conviction makes no difference to how I'm going to vote

There was obviously a zero percent chance of me voting for the orange asshole and his conviction hasn't changed that. I always wonder about those surveys.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Independents and Progressives are the main unknowns

How many will ditch Trump, how many will stay home.

[CaptainTruth]

5. I wonder how many Rs will leave POTUS blank.

It seems like there are a bunch of Rs who don't like Trump but may not be able to bring themselves to vote for Biden. I'll be interested to see the data on how many voters leave the POTUS choice blank.

[oldsoftie]

8. I know 3 personally. And undervotes are what cost him the LAST election

Hopefully it'll be a bigger number this time.

[DownriverDem]

6. Good

However I will never get how so many folks still support him. I vote the issues. I will not vote to take away my rights. I will not vote for a convicted felon.

[oldsoftie]

9. Fox News & talk radio. For the ones who aren't cult members anyway.

I know seemingly normal people who simply dont watch anything but Fox so they believe al their shit

[William769]

10. It took a kick in the teeth to get more Independents, but it was worth it.

[SomedayKindaLove]

11. Saw a poll somewhere that people 65 and older are leaving Trump in droves

They think he’s wack.

[ificandream]

12. I've been thinking all along that independents would abandon him. I hope the media has been underestimating how many.

I think it will be a big big shift.