New A Rated Marquette Law Wisconsin poll - Biden 47% Trump 44%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Biden 47 Trump 44. Developing.

[LakeArenal]

1. Almost out of the margin of error!!

Tho I trust no polls.
I think Biden wins in WI for sure.
No more gerrymandered voter suppression.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. You have to double the MOE to get a clear picture

The MOE is the expected variation for each candidate , so a +/- 3 point MOE could mean a 6 point shift between both candidates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The MOE is a theoretical concept

And the further way from the reported results the further it is statistically further from the true.

[JoseBalow]

13. Lies, damned lies, and statistics

That was written on the board the first day I walked into my Applied Statistics course.

[33taw]

8. I am glad we are no longer gerrymandered, however, that will not impact a national election.

Gerrymandering only impacts races that have state districting. The only hope might be that more people will come out to vote on down ballot elections.

[LakeArenal]

10. I differ. The local gerrymandering is the reason they are able to remove ballot boxes and suppress the vote. 🗳️

The state legislature purges voters, remove polling places, place restrictive laws (like no water while you wait in line to vote), limit early voting, require restrictive voter ID, and I’m sure more.

These statutes stay in place for both local, state and Federal elections.

[33taw]

17. That is why I verify my status every election.

[pwb]

2. Joe loves Milwaukee.

Joe loves everybody. Do your own thing.

[senseandsensibility]

3. Woo Hoo!

[oasis]

6. The turning tide's in for Biden.

[calimary]

7. PLEASE, Dear God, let THAT trend continue!

[BaronChocula]

9. Though I often say "polls, schmolls"

this does fit a narrative that something called trump fatigue is happening. On the other hand, there is no such thing as Biden fatigue. While people have opinions of Biden, they aren't based on an onslaught of felonious deeds. the mtg party tried to make that happen with exhaustingly fruitless hearings on the so-called Biden Crime Family, but it just didn't stick.

Republicans are losers.

[LakeArenal]

11. Milwaukee has come a long way since 1950 where most republicans channel.

[KS Toronado]

12. If we taught critical thinking skills in grade school and high school

it would be Biden 90 TSF 10 today.

[Music Man]

14. I'm not seeing this poll yet.

538 has something posted today from Marquette: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

I see Biden leading 51-49 in a head-to-head matchup of likely voters. He loses to Trump by 2 when third party candidates are factored in.

Biden and Trump are tied at 50 with registered voters, and Biden is down by three in registered voters when third party candidates are factored in.

[Music Man]

15. OK, I think I see now:

Here's the actual link to Marquette's page: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2024/06/26/marquette-law-school-poll-survey-of-wisconsin-finds-biden-and-trump-tied-among-registered-voters-biden-51-to-trump-49-among-likely-voters/

I think I see the 47-44 lead in the likely voter poll. And 538 reports it as such because Biden leads 51-49 when "undecided" is not given as an option.

Unfortunately, if you scroll down, it shows Biden losing when third party candidates are factored in.

[Silent3]

16. Though it troubles me greatly that Biden isn't WAY ahead of someone as awful as Trump, I'm cautiously optimistic...

...that if the polls remain close, turnout will favor Biden and other Democrats, with abortion rights being one of the big motivators.

If we ever reach the sensible point of polls showing Biden having a comfortable lead, I'll feel much more comfortable.