Nate Silver gives Trump a 65% chance of winning.,..

[DemocratInPa]

Please Make all this make sense..

Link to tweet

[OnDoutside]

1. I presume because the polls are all over the place

he's aggregating them, and coming up with this number. I think it best to ignore it until September.

[WarGamer]

13. Looking at the polls...

Last edited Wed Jun 26, 2024, 08:53 PM - Edit history (1)

Swing States are a concern...

[BootinUp]

19. lol. Nt

[Kingofalldems]

22. Should we give up?

[WarGamer]

25. I won't...

I'll keep contributing and voting.

If you're considering "giving up", I'd say don't... just vote. It's all we CAN do.

[edhopper]

49. Should we ignore this?

[Mariana]

53. We should work harder.

[FarPoint]

57. Nate goes down the false equivalency path now...

I'm so sick of the media and pundit manipulation....

Vote Blue because your life depends on it!.

[bullimiami]

2. Poor Nate. He's a great guy and good at averaging polls. BUT

Garbage in Garbage out.

[Prairie Gates]

21. Counterpoint: he's a garbage guy

[elleng]

54. Right, and used to be better, as I recall.

[Cha]

3. 2916 When I see the name Nate Silver I'm not impressed anymore.

Link to tweet

I hope he's Wrong again this year

[Tribetime]

42. Yet he lost by 7 million popular vote and barely lost in a few key states

[Abnredleg]

4. 538 has it tied

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

[Tribetime]

44. Yes Biden had a nice lead after State of the Union

Hopefully again after the debate

[elleng]

55. Thanks

[pwb]

5. You trying to cheer us up with this?

Is this one of Vlad's polls?

[onecaliberal]

6. Vlad, is that you? This is pure propaganda.

[Torchlight]

7. "Anybody else not fretting over polls?"

"Polls is not getting watches. I can't stand that ...at all. Nothing about it and will not listen to the BS and lies. I will grab the highlights on here and X after. Anyone else with me?"

Context and priorities. Context and priorities can appear weak when faced with the vagaries of less than one week of poiltics.

[Johonny]

8. He basically assumes Kennedy only draws from Trump

Which would appear odd based on who is voting for him.

[JT45242]

9. Who gives a shit what Nate silver says

A couple more crazy rulings by the SCOTUS and even more people will realize that the entire rethugs party has to go.

The video I saw of the grandma saying if you aren't a straight white male they are coming for you us so true. There aren't enough of those for the convicted felon to win .

[BootinUp]

10. Patience, grasshopper. Nt

[ecstatic]

11. we are divided and his side is united and ready

to break the law on trump's behalf. They are radicalized and ready to cheat, lie, and steal.

[getagrip_already]

12. Nates an idiot - 538 even fired him

All he can do is average other people's bad work.

Averaging garbage doesn't give you an accurate prediction.

Might as well ask Alina haba.

[GoCubsGo]

15. Yes. He includes ALL polls in his averages.

Including all of the myriad of garbage polls the Republicans put out, which skew it big-time.

[DemocraticPatriot]

18. But this isn't a polling average-- more like his personal betting odds.

More prophecy than science.

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. That's what got him fired from 538

His unwillingness to exclude bad polls that were clearly conducted for the purpose of manipulating the averages.

[DemocraticPatriot]

17. This isn't any polling average, but a "percentage chance of winning" prediction---

in other words, something he pulled out of his ass....

[themaguffin]

14. Does this include fly by night GOP operative propaganda polls? Michigan high schooler polls?

[DemocraticPatriot]

16. That's not as big of a chance as he gave Hillary,

and she lost, so I won't sweat Nate.

[Kingofalldems]

20. And more----Bad Things About Democrats!

And pretty much on a daily basis too.

[DEM1955]

23. He is soooo wrong

trump is NOT winning anything except a boot up his ass.

[calimary]

28. Welcome to DU, DEM1955!

I hope you're right.

But we have to keep working to make it so. We have to keep working as though our COUNTRY depended on it. Because it does.

[Fiendish Thingy]

24. Has Been says what?

Ignore that jackass.

[calimary]

27. The numbers show Biden getting fucked the way Hillary did.

Biden's expected to win the popular vote (like she did in 2016) but lose the damned Electoral College. At least according to this forecast.

How soon can we finally DO AWAY WITH the damned Electoral College???????????

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. Here's Nate's prediction for Election Day 2016:

?w=657&quality=80&ssl=1

[TexasDem69]

35. He was one of the few who gave Trump any chance at all in 2016

[Celerity]

37. The Los Angeles Times nailed it.

The USC/L.A. Times poll saw what other surveys missed: A wave of Trump support

Here’s how the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll is different from the others.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html

Reporting from Washington —

For most of the last four months, the USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll has been the great outlier of the 2016 campaign -- consistently showing a better result for Donald Trump than other surveys did. In light of Tuesday’s election returns, the poll now looks like the only major survey to see the wave coming.

Most of the summer and fall, the poll’s results have been about 6 percentage points more favorable to the Republican than the polling averages. As of Tuesday morning, the poll’s final forecast for the election showed Trump leading by a little over 3 points, 46.8% to 43.6%.

The poll’s findings caused dismay — even outrage — among some readers, especially Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized The Times for running it.

But just as four years ago the poll was one of the few that did not underestimate President Obama’s support, it seems as though it may have been on its own in not underestimating Trump’s.

snip

[TexasDem69]

40. Good call

Anyone seen any polling from the Times on the current status of the Biden//Trump race?

[Mariana]

50. Yes he did.

I don't know why so many people go on as if they think 71.4% actually means 100%.

[LiberalFighter]

30. I don't put any stock in his forecast

[Silent Type]

32. The Economist "Predictive" model had trump favored 2 out of 3 odds several weeks ago. Now, it's 3 out of 4.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president

This is for Electoral College, not popular vote. Hope tomorrow helps.

[Doodley]

33. I hope the debate has a good impact in Biden's direction.

[TexasDem69]

34. I'd say closer to 50/50 but it wouldn't surprise me if Trump won

Of the swing states Trump lost in 2020 he’s going to win at least Georgia and probably Arizona. That puts Trump at 262 electoral college votes. I’m feeling pretty good about PA, MI and WI for Biden and if he wins those plus the one vote in Nebraska then Biden is reelected. But anyone who thinks Trump doesn’t have a real chance hasn’t been paying attention for the past 8 years.

[tavernier]

36. It. Is. June.

[Celerity]

38. Early voting starts in some States in 85 days.

[tavernier]

43. And we desperately care about them wanting to care like we do

Right Now!!! But they don’t and they won’t until they finish their summer vacations, school shop for the kids, and settle in for fall adult time. Trust Joe with the message, trust Trump to screw up everything he touches, be patient. Think and speak good thoughts.

[Celerity]

45. I am not desperate in regards to any facet of my life, politics included.

[Polybius]

58. That's way too early

September voting is absurd imo.

[roamer65]

39. An EC win for Dump and popular vote win for Biden would be the end of the republic.

Last edited Thu Jun 27, 2024, 11:10 PM - Edit history (1)

We cannot endure another one.

[Demsrule86]

41. Nate has an agenda...and the polls have been up for Biden lately. I predict Joe Biden wins easily in November.

Nate Silver idea of Biden leaving ticket is 'ridiculous'

The Hill
https://thehill.com › elections › 4686729-democrat-jare...
May 26, 2024 — Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said in a Sunday interview that pollster Nate Silver's suggestion that President Biden leaves the presidential ...

Nate Silver gives Donald Trump 66% chance of beating ...

Washington Times
https://www.washingtontimes.com › news › jun › nate-s...
49 minutes ago — In his first 2024 presidential election model, the political-statistics guru gave the presumptive Republican nominee a 65.7% chance of winning ...
Missing: replaced ‎| Show results with: replaced

It's time for the White House to put up or shut up

Silver Bulletin | Nate Silver | Substack
https://www.natesilver.net › its-time-for-the-white-hous...
Feb 19, 2024 — If you'd asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald ...

What % chance in 538/Silver's model would convince you ...

Reddit · r/fivethirtyeight
70+ comments · 1 month ago
Nate Silver has floated the idea that if the polls get worse for Biden in the run up to the convention, he should be convinced to not run.
If Biden can't run a normal campaign, he should step aside
Nov 15, 2023
Nate Silver: At some point criticism of Biden from ... - Reddit
Jul 11, 2022
Which party should replace its candidate -- Democrats or ...
Jun 25, 2024
Nate Silver: As our model launches, either Biden or Trump ...
Jun 26, 2024
More results from www.reddit.com

Top pollster suggests it may be time for Biden to drop out of ...

New York Post
https://nypost.com › 2024/06/10 › us-news › pollster-n...
Jun 10, 2024 — Pollster Nate Silver warned Monday that President Biden's approval ratings are so low that it may be time for him to reconsider seeking ...

Nate Silver says it's risky for Dems to nominate Biden

Politico
https://www.politico.com › news › 2023/11/13 › biden-...
Nov 13, 2023 — President Joe Biden meets with Indonesian President Joko Widodo in the Oval Office. Joe Biden and his aides have worked to quell bed-wetting ...

Will Biden be removed from the election ticket? Nate Silver ...

Quora
https://www.quora.com › Will-Biden-be-removed-from...
No, Biden won't be “removed” from the election ticket. Nate Silver certainly has a right to his opinion, but I think his suggestion that ...
8 answers

·

39 votes:
If he truly and honestly cared about the USA he definitely would. Just like Ruth bader ...

Nate Silver

X · NateSilver538
270+ likes · 1 month ago
The question is whether by August, the Hail Mary could become the least-worst option for Ds. Probably not if polls say what they do right now, ...

Nate Silver's 2024 Election Model Wildly Diverges From ...The infamous data journalist says Trump has a 66-percent chance of winning. The site he founded completely disagrees.

Yahoo News Singapore
https://sg.news.yahoo.com › nate-silver-2024-election-...
17 hours ago — Polling data guru Nate Silver, often trashed for his worst predictions, on Wednesday declared Donald Trump to be the overwhelming favorite ...
People also ask

https://www.google.com/search?q=Nate+silver+says+biden+should+be+replaced&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS1002US1002&oq=Nate+silver+says+biden+should+be+replaced&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTE0MjgwajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Sibelius Fan]

46. No

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[marble falls]

47. Fuck Nate. He's not all that accurate.

[Aepps22]

48. Donate

These models are just that, models. We have to donate and GOTV. Anything less won't work

[OAITW r.2.0]

51. And Nate flames out with this phantasmical projection.

[elleng]

52. Who wins, Silver or Lichtman???

[Polybius]

59. We'll find out in August

That's when Alan gives his final prediction.

[Stuart G]

56. The "shit committee" which I"m a member of doesn't give a "SHIT' about "Nate Silver."

[Diraven]

60. There is no way Kennedy will get 8%

Third parties typically do much worse during actual elections than what the polling predicts.