Meanwhile in the Atlantic approaching the Caribbean

[malaise]

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[Deuxcents]

1. Mother Nature could care less about debates or elections..she just does her own thing..

All eyes here are focused on this season..take good care

[Marcus IM]

3. Her own thing is being influenced by human activity. The Fla Straights and Caribbean basin waters are at record temps.

Sitting here in the SE coast of Florida is pretty nerve-racking.

Buy, hey! IT'S TRUCK MONTH!!

[malaise]

5. Isn't that the truth

Get you truck

[Marcus IM]

2. Here's a good tracking site ...

You can choose models, but the default is the ECMWF model ...

https://www.windy.com/?25.754,-80.271,5


https://www.ecmwf.int

[Deuxcents]

4. I'm sitting in sw Florida so we can keep malaise company ⛈️

[Marcus IM]

7. I'm still feeling a bit of PTSD since Andrew.

I lived in S Miami-Dade.

Pretty close to The Crossings, the development that was totally destroyed and collapsed due to the shoddy construction.

Saw semi trucks and 10 ton roof A/C units tossed about like Tonka toys.

250,000 homes destroyed in a few hours. Hundreds of thousand more severely damaged.

Where I lived, power was out for 8 weeks.

There were roving gangs of home invaders.

My dental practice office was destroyed completely.

Cell phones then were Motorola brick phones, storm took the system out.

I get really nervous seeing incoming storms. Not just for me and surroundings, but for my family in Cuba.

[Deuxcents]

8. Andrew will be forever blazed in our memories. My cousins lived in what once was Perrine

They lost everything n had to relocate. We’re better educated with tech advances and the courage hurricane hunters have flying into these storms. Take good care

[Marcus IM]

9. TY. You too.

Same for Malaise.

[malaise]

10. Beryl is heading my way they say

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

[malaise]

21. Was Gilbert for me

Woke me up

[malaise]

25. Holy shit Beryl will now be a major hurricane

In the Windward islands

[Marcus IM]

28. Forecasters are worried about the speed of increase.

Was listening to an NPR interview with a NOAA hurricane expert who is worried about how fast a storm in the hot Caribbean can increase intensity.

As the global warming stands, a tropical depression can become a Category 5 within 48 to 56 hours!

Not enough time for proper preparation after a storm has formed.

The prediction models are better, but the speed of intensification has outpaced advance warning times.

Good luck to all in the zone.

[malaise]

36. Yes

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/06/29/hurricane-beryl-record-hot-oceans/74255415007/

[rurallib]

6. Time for Trump to swoop in with his Sharpie and save the day!

[Deuxcents]

11. Just upgraded to tropical storm Beryl .. watch out malaise and our DU friends at the Lake in Costa Rica

[malaise]

20. Watching

😀

[roamer65]

12. Here they come.

Good luck to all and stay safe.

Especially you, malaise!

[malaise]

22. We'll be lucky this time

Think it will pass south but if we’re wrong, at most it will be a Cat1 by then.

[LeftInTX]

13. Yikes! It's too early for this!

What???



It's forecast to be up to 50 KTs on July 2nd.

[malaise]

24. The one good thing

There’s no M for major hurricane with this one. We’ll get through whatever Beryl brings.

[LeftInTX]

30. Forecast to be a major when it passes the Antilles!

[malaise]

31. Yes that changed after my post

Major inthe Windward islands.

[ornotna]

14. Batten down the hatches malaise

It's headed right to you.

[malaise]

15. Not sure the environmental conditions in the northern Caribbean will let Beryl

Last edited Sat Jun 29, 2024, 10:24 AM - Edit history (1)

survive the distance but we’ll sure get lots of water. The European model is my guide.

Thanks - I’m preparing for whatever comes.

[Prairie_Seagull]

16. Now would be a great time for a little

vacation. Costa Rica maybe.

Everyone in it's path. Watch Your Shit!

[malaise]

17. I am actually booked to travel Thursday

for some family and fireworks😀😀
Go away Beryl.

[Prairie_Seagull]

23. I went through one of these in NC

many years ago. I was just a kid and we were on the outer banks and sure it started as exciting then the first big gust hits and then it gets terrifying. The outer banks was no place for man nor beast that day.

Hope your flight out is timed right.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

18. Nice map, unless you're sitting on the island of Jamaica, ...

... in which case, it's "uh-oh"

Run, malaise, run!

[malaise]

19. We're overdue but I don't think Beryl is our storm

I think Beryl will weaken and pass south of us.

Ready for whatever comes our way but by then it will be Cat 1 at most.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

26. A Cat 1 can blow the little umbrella out of your beach bar drink, ...

... but it's no Gilbert.

Good luck with it, anyway.

[malaise]

32. Agreed

Last edited Sun Jun 30, 2024, 06:51 AM - Edit history (1)

Good take here

[cachukis]

27. It's a seasonal thing. It will pass. Says no one who knows.

[republianmushroom]

29. Some low pressure areas, cometh.

It is the season.

[malaise]

33. This one is unbelievable for July 1

A Cat4 Cape Verde hurricane so early should frighten all of us.
Barbados and the Windward islands are going to be devastated.

[DoBW]

34. are you likely to lose power, internet?

got plan for water?

[malaise]

35. Looks like it will pass south of us as a Cat 2

There is enough water here for a minth. If it’s worse than I anticipate, we will lose power, cell service and land lines because the idiots are now connecting our land lines to the internet set up
I am still hoping to travel on Thursday. Not sure my aircraft will show. up Wednesday night. 😀.

[republianmushroom]

37. The will continue to come earlier, more frequent and stronger in the future. IMO

[malaise]

38. There's one behind it was a 70% chance

And if it survives that one could make the US mainland.