First post debate poll and its reaction will be very interesting.

[Funtatlaguy]

The pundits are saying that Monday morning will have the release of at last one post debate poll (probably just national numbers with no state polling).

I’ve seen speculation on what is expected anywhere from the race staying at status quo of 42-42% in polls where third party candidates and “undecided” are included to Trump getting a 3-7% bump.

Not sure what I expect.
But I think I’d be ok with a 3% bump.
A 7% bump would make me sick 🤢.

[DarthDem]

1. There have already been two

One has Biden up. Both show movement toward Biden.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Really? Where? Please provide links. Thanks. 😊

[Abnredleg]

3. Here you go

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

[Qutzupalotl]

5. Last updated June 25. Oops, edited, see below.

They speak about the debate in future tense.

On edit: I'm wrong. The top two polls were taken the day after the debate, they just didn't update the article.

[Funtatlaguy]

6. Yes, unfortunately, that information is all pre debate.

Polling outfits are presumably “out in the field” this weekend and will release those results this Monday.

[Qutzupalotl]

8. My mistake.

The article was last updated June 25, but the two polls at the top are indeed post-debate.

That's good!

[WarGamer]

12. Look again. 538 updated their typo.

[Silent Type]

4. Hoping first major polls indicate debate didn't hurt Biden, like polls show trump didn't get hurt by 91 indictments.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. The rules for what affects Trump and Biden are quite different.

[getagrip_already]

9. Repeat after me - polls are garbage

They are media coin of the realm. They can determine exactly what they are intended to show when designed.

Outliers are not mistakes, they are by design.

The media knows they will drive eyeballs. They tilt them to drive ratings. They are not honest attempts to Guage election outcomes this far in advance.

Garbage.

[Funtatlaguy]

10. True. But the media love to use them to form their narrative

and to perpetuate a horse race, that may or may not.

[getagrip_already]

11. Exactly - which is why we should watch them dispassionately

But not get wrapped up all around our axill every time the nyt, or Rasmussen, or even quin comes out with an off flavor poll.

At their very best, they are a point in time snapshot of a very narrow group of the population. Dems have become very difficult to poll, and magats very easy. That is the opposite of 2016.

Look at them, discuss them. Don't believe them. Good or bad. They aren't accurate.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. I say a temporary 1 or 2% bump for Trump.

But it won’t last.