He has nailed nearly every presidential race. Here's what he thinks about Trump-Biden debate.

[Wicked Blue]

By Matt Arco | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The man who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections — including that Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton — has some thoughts about the recent debate.

...snip...

Allan Lichtman delivered the message on CNN, arguing despite the lackluster performance by Biden Thursday night, he’s the Democrats’ best chance at winning in November.

From Lichtman:
“All of these pundits and pollsters, and panelists that you see on all the cable channels and all the networks, have no track records in predicting elections. And if they come on and they claim they know how this debate is going to effect of elections, they have no idea. It’s sports talk radio. It may be entertaining, but it has no scientific basis,” he said.

And on the debate’s impact on the race?

“Zero. Debates are no predictive of outcomes. Hillary Clinton won all three debates, still lost. John Kerry won all of the debates, still lost. Barack Obama got trounced, 72%-20% in the poll, worse than Biden and want on to win,” he said. “Democrats’ really only chance to win, contrary to everything you’ve heard, is with Biden running.”

https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/06/he-has-nailed-nearly-every-presidential-race-heres-what-he-things-about-trump-biden-debate.html

(paywall)

[valleyrogue]

1. He is correct.

It simply isn't done to dump a sitting president who is the nominee for re-election. LBJ doesn't count because the reason he decided to not seek re-election had nothing whatsoever to do with other candidacies. It had to do with wanting to devote all his time to ending the Vietnam War with the Paris Peace talks, which Nixon through third parties sabotaged.

[geardaddy]

46. I agree

but Joe technically isn't the nominee until he officially gets in at the DNC.
BTW, I'm behind Joe 100%

[pwb]

2. Joe saved us from trump once I kind of

feel bad that he has to again, but he wants to. If it was another candidate besides Humpty Trumpty he would have made way.

[c-rational]

3. Thank you. I am Ridin with Biden!

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

4. Riding with Biden!

Stick with us.. we got your back!

[PatSeg]

5. Yep, absolutely

It would be insanity to switch candidates now and history confirms that.

[Tetrachloride]

6. zero predictive value ?? mere entertainment??

i disagree

[shrike3]

27. Then why didn't Hillary and Kerry win, if they mean so much?

[FBaggins]

35. Because it's ridiculous to refer to a debate simply in terms of "winning" or "losing"

Nobody picks a candidate on who is the best debater.

But nobody is worried about this debate in terms of policy positions or rhetorical flair.

Having said that... the premise itself is also incorrect. At least two or three presidential races were impacted substantially by a debate.

[shrike3]

48. So, people on this site know more than a man who's correctly predicted nine out of 10 election outcomes.

Including the one where Trump beat Hillary? I think I'll listen to them.

[Mike Nelson]

7. Interesting opinion...

... but I might take Hillary Clinton's "loss" out of the argument. Trump was legitimately elected, yes, but Clinton won the vote. For Bush-Kerry, I think the "War on Terror" helped the war-time President win. And, didn't Obama come back with a better debate performance? Maybe this should be the Biden model?

[Cosmocat]

9. Biden beat Ryan in the vp debate

To help turn it around

[rurallib]

23. incumbency is hard to beat

except for a total fuck up like Trump

[calimary]

8. "It's sports talk radio. It may be entertaining, but it has no scientific basis,"

That’s what I think, too. Just cheap gum-flapping and tongue-wagging. Those engaging in it are PAID to do so. Horse race, horse race, horse race. Or as we used to say in radio - keep the needle bouncing!

[iluvtennis]

10. Thanks for posting this. Adds to my store of positive vibes. nt

[Ford_Prefect]

11. "It's sports talk radio." "It's sports talk radio." "It's sports talk radio."

MSM steering the "vox populi" in whatever direction gins up the most emotional response. Sells lots of groceries, insurance, and soap.

[dlk]

12. Debates are designed for television and are not the least bit reflective of the job of the presidency

The one and two minute sound bites are misleading, at best, when demonstrating how someone will govern. We should wise up.

[oldsoftie]

13. He predicts using a "13 key" system. He with the most "keys" usually wins

Here's an article on him from spring. A few of these are debatable as to who' could claim them.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election

he usually makes his prediction in August.

[Joinfortmill]

14. Sing it, brother!!!

[DemocraticPatriot]

15. K n R

[orangecrush]

16. There it is.

[ananda]

17. This issue has been blown WAY out of proportion.

Like he said, it was just one debate,
and he didn't actually lose it.

He's doing better than ever.

[Demsrule86]

29. It seems to me it is mostly people who wanted someone else to run.

h

OH my stars pearl clutching and fainting.

[AncientOfDays]

19. I agree with Lichtman

Might be different if Biden had had a strong opponent in the primaries. But there is no ready alternative. Also, Biden got more done than any President since FDR and we should let him finish the job(s) he started.

[Dem4life1234]

20. Yes

Yes! Though I didn't think Obama did all that bad, he only didn't too well in one debate and that was the 2012. He simply said "uh" bit too much. Wasn't that debate after his grandma died?

[BaronChocula]

21. Lichtman is a beacon (no pun intended)

He doesn't usually make his predictions until August (I think), but he came out this spring saying (pre-prediction) that Biden was on track to win in November. I've been a little more at ease since I heard that, even with all of the noise since Thursday.

An I believe the one election he didn't call "correctly" was in 2000 and as far as I know, his Thirteen Keys to the White House system doesn't take into consideration tampering from SCOTUS conservatives.

[Wicked Blue]

30. Oddly enough, Lichtman and I were colleagues with the same newspaper

Last edited Sun Jun 30, 2024, 09:24 PM - Edit history (1)

around 30 years ago. I was a beat reporter and he was a contributer who came in once a week to hand in his politics column. It was no more than a nodding acquaintance, if that.

[BaronChocula]

42. Wow

What was the paper?

[Wicked Blue]

47. The Montgomery Journal

in Rockville Maryland. It was a decent liberal paper covering Montgomery County. Unfortunately it no longer exists.

It was sold around 2004,along with other papers in the Journal group. These were "replaced" by the Washington Examiner, which is owned by an extremely right-wing company.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Examiner

[BaronChocula]

49. I've had many stays in Montgomery Co

My parents lived there from 85-91 (Burtonsville) and all my sisters gravitated there at one time or another. Still have 3 sisters out of 4 in MD.

[Wicked Blue]

50. We lived in MoCo from 1990 to 2023

in Derwood.

[BWdem4life]

22. non-paywall link

https://archive.ph/cFJ8m

[Wicked Blue]

24. Thanks!

I subscribe to NJ.com / The Star-Ledger but had no idea how to get past its paywall.

[Tertullian]

25. I am Ridin wit Biden.

Word up.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

37. Ridin wit Biden.

I love that!

[FakeNoose]

51. This one is from 2020 (or maybe earlier?)

Ridin' with Biden

[The Unmitigated Gall]

26. The only guy to ever beat the shitflinger. I'm sticking with him. nt

[doc03]

28. We don't have any other choice, we knew age was going to be an issue. I am

relieved nothing more serious has happened yet, when a person is 81 years old it could be much worse.
I am 76 years old, at my age your health can change overnight. That goes for anyone, but the odds are not good
at 76 or 81. Same goes for Trump he could be a vegetable tomorrow.

[llmart]

31. I was just thinking about how you rarely, if ever...

we hear the media go on and on about TSF's age. It's not like he's the sort of person most people would say, "Boy, he really looks ten years younger than his age". Or, "He's really fit for his age". He looks crappy in my opinion.

I blame the media. There was barely a thing said the time they had to rush the fat orange blob to Walter Reed by whisking him into a limo quickly. Did we ever get the truth about why? No. If I remember correctly, they bought the lie that he was just going for the second half of his annual physical. What a crock of bullshit that was.

[doc03]

32. I think if his cult saw him as he really is with pasty white skin and bald as

a Q ball, they would drop him in a minute.

[llmart]

33. Another thing I've thought about...

Most presidential candidates go out into the crowds and shake hands and smile and talk to the children, etc. etc. That's where the phrase "pressing the flesh" comes from. I don't believe I've ever seen him at one of his rallies (confession here - I don't watch more than a minute of any of them) after it's over, go out into the crowds of "adoring fans" aka cult members, and smile and shake their hands and talk with them. Maybe he doesn't want them to see him close up, though I think it's more of the "they're beneath me and I wouldn't want to touch any of them" case.

[doc03]

34. Next debate Joe should show up with one those Big Ass barn fans. No he dont

Interact with his cult, he finds them stupid and discusting.

[Wicked Blue]

39. I've read that tfg has a serious germ phobia

and refuses to shake hands.
Not that anyone in their right mind would want to.

[llmart]

43. His "germ phobia" doesn't extend to...

grabbing women by the "p...." though, now does it? Or raping women. No fear of germs in those close encounters.

I call more b.s. on his so-called germ phobia. He just doesn't want to mingle with the "little people", you know, the ones who are beneath him and that's just about anyone. He's one, big fraud in everything. He's a seriously damaged person.

[chowmama]

36. If we dump Biden, we lose.

The Democratic Commitee will replace him with a 'play it safe' white male. Harris will find herself in a back room, hearing "It's just not your time." And we'll lose most of the female votes and most of the minority votes. The margin is just too damn close.

It's going to be hard enough to convince them to go with Harris in 2028.

[Farmer-Rick]

38. Thank you for posting this

It's what I was trying to get at but couldn't quite put my finger on it....besides, it required a lot of research. Glad Allan Lichtman already did the research.

Winning debates won't win you the presidency.

I mean it's great when your candidate comes off well, but that's no guarantee of winning the election.

If you ask me both came off a bit poorly. Biden with his horseness and the convicted felon with his never ending stream of hyperbolic lies. It wasn't a win for the felon. It wasn't a win for Biden. But it's not the end of the road for either candidate.

[Stinky The Clown]

40. I'll go with Lichtman. I'll stick with Biden.

[Cha]

41. I like Allan Lichtman's'

analysis on the debate.

Just Hope he has positive things about Pres Biden as it gets closer to the Election!

TY

[DFW]

44. A friend, one with a LOT more experince in the thick of D politics than any of us will ever have, told me this:

"I think it’s overblown by self important pundits. We will know more by the end of next week given the short attention span of the public and the press."

That sounds like a wise, measured assessment to me.

[LeftinOH]

45. Allan Lichtman has a YouTube page. I look forward to each new post.

[ecstatic]

52. might be true because who exactly would take his place?

The country is too racist and sexist to go all in with VP Harris.

I asked my brother for his thoughts on Gavin Newsom. He didn't recognize the name but when I said he was the governor of California, he immediately had something to say about how Newsom had destroyed California, etc etc.

So the rightwing is 10 steps ahead of us in smearing our potential fallback candidates. It might be harder to get everyone on board for Newsom than Biden because he will be blamed for everything CA state legislators have done.

With Biden, the age is really the only complaint. The rest of the complaints are based on lies that can hopefully be debunked.

[Linda ladeewolf]

53. Stick with Biden.

Biden is the only chance we have. A bad debate means zip.