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[Blue Cape]

This message was self-deleted by its author (Blue Cape) on Tue Jul 16, 2024, 04:30 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Music Man]

1. I actually think it took a turn after the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal.

The numbers plummeted immediately in August 2021, and they've never returned: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

[Groundhawg]

8. this

[Lonestarblue]

44. And the media absolutely hammered him over the withdrawal.

They rarely, if ever, mentioned that Trump had signed the agreement for withdrawal and had authorized the release of 5,000 Taliban fighters before he left office. Those fighters made the difference in the push to unseat the Afghan government. The Post especially was relentless.

[delisen]

55. I think it was up to us to get this information out

We know the media will not do it on its own

Going forward we need for the administration, and others to explain in advance .

[Hope22]

59. It was talked about plenty.

Low information/ FOX viewer Americans will never hear the message. Please explain who ‘us’ is!

[Hope22]

56. This times 1000!

When TSF brought that up at the debate I thought Biden was dumbfounded to answer. Joe…you have 60 seconds to clarify why you handled the withdrawal so poorly with both hands tied behind your back? Please explain…too late…too bad! TSF is a dangerous kind of crazy!

[elleng]

2. No doubt polling is critically flawed.

[Ms. Toad]

3. The economy, as a whole, is not the basis on which people living paycheck to paycheck make their decisions.

Paychecks have not gone up as quickly as groceries and rent. When people's paychecks aren't covering the bills anymore, how healthy the stock market is for other people's money is just not relevant.

We have to find a way to address that reality - rather than acting puzzled that people who aren't making ends meet can't see the bigger picture.

[Ms. Toad]

6. You were commenting on why Biden is unpopular, since the economy is good.

I explained one of the main reasons - and the fact that you (and you're not the only one) can't even acknowledge it as a possibility is a problem that we need to remedy if we have any hope of winning over the many people whose answer to the question "are you better off now than 4 years ago" is honestly "no," from the perspective of the family's pocketbook.

[Ms. Toad]

10. And that is a serious problem.

We can't afford to continue to tell people that what they are experiencing in their lives is not real.

[Johnny2X2X]

62. Real wages are higher since before Covid too

I get it that not everyone has gained, there are still people struggling, but it's less people than who were struggling under Trump.

Inlation is hard to deal with without emotion. It's an emotional issue. Because people see that things cost more, they feel helpless, it feels like something inflicted on them. So those people are likely to ignore the fact that their incomes went up more than the costs of things did. Yet, for the majority of Americans, this is what happened.

[MichMan]

65. Retirees didn't receive 25% wage increases

Yet that is how much we are affected by higher prices. Maybe I should go out and start working again somewhere.

[Demsrule86]

68. And you think the president who didn't have the votes can somehow fix that? There was a cost of living raise.

[MichMan]

75. I'm constantly told here that income increases more than made up for any inflation

and everyone has extra money they didn't have before.

Inflation is up nearly 25% and no, my COLA increases in SS were nowhere near that amount.

[PatSeg]

82. And even if people have more money in their pocket,

it doesn't necessarily feel like it when they go grocery shopping and see very high prices.

Like you, my COLA increases did not keep up with inflation, but the stimulus checks I received pushed me far enough ahead, that I'm not feeling the inflation as much as some. I am most definitely better off than I was four or five years ago. Actually most people I know are better off.

I've heard on TV several times that when polled, people say they are doing well economically, but they believe the rest of the country isn't and that is because it is what they hear on television and from republican politicians.

[Johnny2X2X]

69. Retirees saw health care costs rise too quickly

So they've been hit harder by inflation because of that. Social Security cost of living increases were robust, but a lot of retirees came out behind. This is why Dems are working so hard to increase social security in the face of the Republican Party's all out blitz to slash it.

And yes, is Trump gets his way, you'd be forced back to work.

[DVRacer]

74. Across the Federal Government

Although costs have risen 25% the total Cost of living adjustment for all federal payments has increased 17.8% make the math work. This would include those on SS SSDI SSI and Veterans benefits that’s a lot of people who are being left behind. The other issue for them is it takes 12 months to get the adjustment, so as prices rose rapidly in 2022 during the year it wasn’t until 2023 they got increased amount. By then they were already falling behind with the inflation rate of 2023 piling up.

[Tree Lady]

25. Thats what I am hearing from everyone

that all bills and food have gone way up so telling people the economy is better is meaningless to them. Its not what they see.

I personally have been transferring money from savings at the end of every month for food for over a year and thats on top of budgeting a extra $100 a month for it.

[Ms. Toad]

76. Thank you for sharing your personal experience.

I have been observing and hearing this from folks inclined to support Trump - but far more recently I have been hearing it from friends who oppose Trump, as well.

The voices of people who support Biden, for whom there is no question of politics influencing the statement should be a powerful wake-up call.

[Tree Lady]

86. The president needs to address this

just saying the economy is better and unemployment is down is not good enough if people can't afford food.

I like Joe and will vote for him no matter what but he needs to win over the people who aren't rock solid like we are here.

[Ms. Toad]

87. I've been saying that for months.

I get shocked looks from most Democrats when I do, as if they can't imagine that anyone isn't personally economically better off than they were 4 years ago. But until we stop telling people they aren't experiencing what they actually are experiencing, we aren't going to win them away from someone who is promising to solve all their problems.

Our messaging has to meet people where they are, not where we think they should be.

[DemocraticPatriot]

4. Too many citizens are helping to make these polling results

with a lack of accurate information or knowledge of about how the economy works...

I got 4.0's in macro and micro economics in college,
so it isn't me....

Basically, in America, if you don't like something, "blame the President!"

I don't like the Republican Party or Donald Trump,
so by all means, I blame President Biden !!!
(or at least, that is what the MSM is pushing all of us to do)

[Sea Wolf]

9. Michael Steele

Said it best on Nicole Wallace's show the other day. He told the "pundits" on the panel that all this Dem hand wringing & questioning of Biden over his debate performance is playing right into Trump's hands. He threw it right in their faces & he was right. Democrats are their own worst enemy & they are handing Trump a victory by throwing Biden under the bus.

[shrike3]

78. I'm with Michael Steele. All this handwringing will bite us in the behind.

[TwilightZone]

12. It's not just a polling issue. That's just an easy way to avoid the real issues.

I disagree that we can just wave away President Biden's stubbornly low ratings (or Trump's relatively-high approval, for that matter) as a polling issue. Some polls undoubtedly have issues, but it's exceedingly unlikely that every poll has been substantially off every time over several years.

A significant part of the problem is that some people simply don't pay attention, they're apolitical, they're apathetic, they're highly influenced by propaganda and misinformation and/or they're under- or misinformed. As both 2016 and 2020 proved, there are at least tens of millions of people who fall into one or all of these categories. This is nothing new. We've been fighting active misinformation and propaganda from the right since at least the Reagan years

As for the economy, for many people, that means nothing beyond their own households. It doesn't matter how well the economy is doing as a whole if they perceive - right or wrong - that it isn't helping them. It could be as simple as the price of groceries, which is without question much higher than pre-pandemic, as is the cost of most other goods and many services. If that's what people living paycheck-to-paycheck view as "the economy", they're not going to see the macro level.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

33. So that poll is correct

But all the others are not?

[Docreed2003]

64. This is a spot on assessment

[JohnSJ]

14. The answer is simple. The corporate media

[Sibelius Fan]

15. Simple: no other president in history has had to deal on a daily basis with

the candidate he trounced in an election lying through his teeth, creating an Earth 2.0 “reality” and having extensive media outlets ready to amplify those lies and promote that lying “reality” as if it was reality based, which it isn’t.

I doubt thar ANY president’s accomplishments would be able to break through a news media that is obsessed with covering the LOSER of an election and his constant whining and victimhood, rather than covering the policies of the winner, a media obsessed with earning ratings rather than reporting actual news.

[LymphocyteLover]

42. no doubt rightwing media has been completely rabid in their attacks on Biden since 2020 and all the constant

insane crap about the border that is largely Republicans fault, gets pushed onto Biden

[Silent Type]

16. That's an interesting spin, but who knows in an election where little makes sense?

[betsuni]

17. Republican voters think the economy is bad when there's a Democratic president.

Has nothing to do with reality.

[MichMan]

66. Let's be honest here

If Trump was president, we would be blaming him non stop for inflation and higher prices.

[Demsrule86]

70. Inflation is not high...and of course if Trump were president, I have no doubt we would be in a depression.

[Polybius]

72. It's not high?

[Demsrule86]

77. No it is not...read the financial news...there 2.49 % inflation which is historically low.

[Polybius]

80. 3.3%

Next update is July 11.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

[TexasBushwhacker]

88. Everyone should keep in mind that DEFLATION is even worse

People stop buying things because they expect prices to go down. People stop buying, manufacturers stop making. Then employees start being laid off.

[ITAL]

18. Biden's old

Seriously it plays into everything. A lot of people won't give him credit for anything that goes right because they don't feel like he's responsible for any of it. About 80% of the people I talk politics to think Biden is senile (and most of them are Democrats!), and that was before the debate.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

21. Senility.

I'm curious, did Biden's State of the Union address change their opinion temporarily?

[ITAL]

54. Sort of

But not really because he was reading off a teleprompter for 95% of it. People want more evidence of him thinking quick on his feet.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

89. Oh, I see.

Thanks for the reply.

[C Moon]

23. Surprise! Trump's old, too!

[ITAL]

63. Yeah, and Democrats already hate Trump

But there are a whole lot of people who only voted for Biden in 2020 because they were scared of Trump. They were really concerned about Biden's age then, and are way more so now. They seize on any time he seems a bit befuddled. Hell, even my mother-in-law (a senior citizen herself) is in that camp. All she ever talks about regarding to Biden is wishing he'd step aside for someone younger ("like Jack Kennedy" to use her words).

[valleyrogue]

24. They don't even know what "senility" is.

It is ageism, pure and simple.

[Cosmocat]

38. It he wasnt old it would be something else

Al Gore got branded as s geek.

John Kerry got swift boated.

Howard Dean got screamed.

BHO had to give in and wear a gd flagpin cause they turned that into the biggest issue ever.

Hillary was a highly competent and decent person and was completely dehumanized.

Oh, and Donald Trump is three years older. I mean ...

[GoCubsGo]

39. It's not that he's old. It's that he's competent and boring.

He doesn't provide the ratings boon that came with his predecessor's freakshow. They want a shitshow, and he's not giving it to them, so they're doing everything they can to create one. Like still yammering on about that stupid debate four fucking days later. Had to shut those motherfuckers off again this morning because of it.

[Cosmocat]

48. That and leveling the playing field

Been seeing them do this my whole adult life - they go into the realm of absurdities to drag Ds because Rs are to bad and have so many actual problems with them, they have to force or pile on with things to, in their idiotic way of thinking, be "balanced."

As you noted, Joe is just a solid public figure, so they have to find SOMETHING to drag him down.

[GoCubsGo]

49. Yep. They want a horse race.

Horse races bring ratings/readership. If it means putting a hobble on one of the horses to get their race, that's what they'll do.

[Cosmocat]

67. Yep

And constantly dragging Ds is what they need to do.

[Kaleva]

19. Glad to hear you aren't going to change your vote because of the polls

Your comment:

" So making any decisions based on "data" will be making decisions with erroneous information."

[House of Roberts]

20. The opposition will always disapprove, which gets you close to 50%.

Then you have some who disapprove of the way Israel is being handled, some who disapprove of the way immigration is being handled, some who disapprove of the way climate change is being handled, and so forth. They might answer a poll one way, but they all still know Trump would be far worse on his best day than Biden would be on his worst day, and that will only come out when the real voting happens.

[carpetbagger]

22. Like most current heads of democratic governments.

Sunal, Trudeau, Macron are good examples, and recent changes of government in Italy and Poland.

[live love laugh]

26. Polls have been "flawed" long before Biden. It's who's reporting the polls and how that is the common denominator.

IOW it’s Republican-owned media that incessantly works to undermine Democrats locally and nationally while coddling or not f0ousing at all on Republicans’ failure to represent The People.

[RockRaven]

27. Americans are unhappy. Some for very good reasons. Some for nonsense

reasons. Some for real reasons, but ones which are internal not external as they seem to think.

And there is a long-standing tendency (my whole life anyway) for people to blame POTUS or "the government" for their unhappiness/problems.

Being an incumbent is always to be a punching bag, and more so as the geographical region/population which elects the office grows.

[rampartc]

28. the second possibility

is that mr biden has been hit with a firehose of false witness and 24/7 criticism from a guy who seems to have appointed himself "america's monday morning quarterback." a guy so failed in his own presidency that he must destroy the country to protect his own fragile ego..

but the criticism has a basis. economic statistics seem good, but the inequality inherent in out system is leaving many of these people behind,

[andym]

29. While the economy is good, prices and interest rates are high relative to the last decade

People go by that-- high interest rates mean high mortgage and cc rates. Many Americans overuse cc, so they are actually impacted a lot. That's why many folks think the economy is not good.
Fed cutting the rates in the fall will help.

[doc03]

40. I am 76, tell me how my fixed income has gone up the last two years?

[doc03]

45. I am getting more interest on savings but the reason is inflation. If I get 5% interest

I have to pay the tax on the 5% and it also makes a larger portion of my SS taxable therefore I gain nothing.
The COLA on SS does not fully compensate for the rate of inflation. I also have a pension plan that I receive no
COLA for. A while back I figured I have lost over $600 a month from inflation on my pension since I retired 14 years ago.

[doc03]

61. How many seniors have $200k in savings? nt

[MichMan]

73. So, if I have $1 million in cash, I shouldn't be concerned about the economy because of all the interest I am earning.

Good to know

[Mike Nelson]

31. Biden is...

... an excellent President, and he has a large "popular" following. Still, I see your point. I don't know, exactly... A President being "old" was not unusual before Kennedy. Sure, FDR was not "shown in his wheelchair," but the American people knew he wasn't Fred Astaire and elected him four times. Everyone liked his general Ike, too, after a massive heart attack.

... I think the decision to "demonize" rather than "defeat" rivals has had an effect. Limbaugh, Gingrich, and FOX hosts perfected that... it's more difficult for any politician to be "popular" in today's environment.

... The "polls" are manipulated by the news. I recall all the polls stating how unpopular "Obamacare" was... but they didn't say a lot of the "nays" were people who AGREED with the concept, but didn't think it went far enough. Also, polls want to be correct... since they predicted Hillary Clinton would win, they were "wrong." But she did win the vote, so they were correct. Still, pollsters need to be considered correct - it's their job. How do you poll the Electoral College? Maybe oversample Republican/Conservative voters?

... Lastly, according to people I know, Biden is mainly "popular" because he is not Trump.

[SARose]

35. Folks are doing well where I live

Homes are selling.
Restaurants are packed every night not just Friday/Saturday.
Car lots are full.
Costco and Sam’s are packed during the middle of the week like Christmas.
Amazon, Fed Ex, UPS, and the Post Office are up and down my street all day long.
People gripe about grocery prices but they haven’t cut back. I see carts full leaving HEB everyday.
Farmer’s markets are booming, too.

People I know are Trumpers for one reason - he hates the same people they do. He spews vile things they think but won’t say out loud.

They don’t care if he lies and, frankly, they don’t care if he is a dictator. They want the Bible taught in schools; they want prayer in schools; they want “illegal aliens” deported.

More than anything they want Leave it to Beaver back.

[honest.abe]

36. I don't think it's just a polling issue.

Biden’s approval numbers are getting dinged by all sorts of issues, inflation, housing costs, Gaza, Ukraine, TikTok, and more. It’s not surprising at all his approval is low.

[Cosmocat]

37. Sorry

The polling isn't that wrong.

This country is simply that stupid.

I'm out here, there are a LOT of otherwise intelligent and decent people who have chosen to ingest right wing propaganda and swallow every bit of its complete bullshit.

[brooklynite]

47. Point 1. Biden's campaign team has never claimed an approval rating that high at any briefing I've attended...

Point 2. If Biden's approval was that high, his vote total would already be above 50% (some people will always vote for a candidate they don't "approve of" give the alternative). The Biden campaign has said this remains an extremely close race.

[LiberalFighter]

60. I consider Allred much better than Beto

Beto had a weird speaking pattern.

[Polybius]

90. "I see it as 48 B, 42 T, Kennedy and minor parties 10"

I wish I shared your optimism. I see it as T48, B48, minor Parties 4.

[Johnny2X2X]

51. Biden is the first president in generations where working people have made tangible gains

Real wages up since before Covid. UE rate at historic lows for such a long period has done more to increase wages than anything. And the lower quintile, the poor and the working poor, have seen the biggest gains. But you never hear about that, because everyone is obsessed with inflation.

What's more, the net worth of the bottom 50% in this country increased.



Real wages went up for the bottom 10% while they went down for the top 10%.



Do people realize the significance of this? The poor actually made up ground on the rich, I don't think that's been the case in my lifetime as a Gen Xer. All I've heard was that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Biden actually reversed that and no one heard about it.

[OldBaldy1701E]

52. Maybe it is because some of us are not solely interested in 'the economy'?

I know that it is the only reason we exist at all ( ), but maybe... just maybe... there are some that are fed up with greed and injustice fueled by the fact that the green god must be sacrificed to at all costs. Some of those 'sacrifices' are probably fed up with the entire thing.

[delisen]

57. Agreed. The US has put the economy over society.

An economy is a tool of a society not the other way around.

A country must be run for its people, the economy should be serving us but we are being shoved into the position observing the economy. It is not working.

[OldBaldy1701E]

84. Oh, it has worked for something like 460 people.

It has worked wonderfully.

[delisen]

85. The 460 comprise the Queen Bee of the American Hive

The rest of us being cast into the roles of drones and workers.

[Goodheart]

58. It's easy. It's about the price of gas, beef, cereal. Most Americans are low information by choice.

Short attention spans. No time for stuff like this. You and I who hang out on political sites are a minority.

[Polybius]

71. What about the everyday people I conversate with?

I think it comes down to charisma. Clinton had high level, which is why he was popular. Biden and most of us aren't on the same level, so the public doesn't see them that way.

Reagan was the flip side. He had bad policies but was charismatic and extremely comfortable in front of the camera, hence the high approval ratings. The average voter isn't as smart as we are.

[shrike3]

79. I like your assessment. Biden is not Obama or Clinton.

[LudwigPastorius]

83. One word: Inflation.

It's under control now, but it was briefly over 9% in 2022.

People got used to very low inflation over the past 30 years. The last time it was over 6% was during Poppy Bush's term.