CNN Post Debate Poll - TFG 49% Biden 43%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Last edited Tue Jul 2, 2024, 01:35 PM - Edit history (1)

In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/politics/cnn-poll-post-debate/index.html

[peppertree]

1. This too shall pass

Let's keep in mind: Four months is a small eternity in campaign politics.

[Renew Deal]

2. A sex scandal passes

But people need to be convinced you can do the job.

[Silent Type]

3. Interestingly, that has been the split for 5 months. It hasn't budged. Polls in swing states

are the key.

[Deek1935]

21. Polls mean absolutely nothing right now. Nothing. They have no predictive value of who wins in November.

[Silent Type]

38. OK. I'll review them, rather than waiting on the final poll on Nov 5.

[Mike Nelson]

4. Guessing the...

... question was about who did better in the debate? I agree with the 49%, but I am 100% voting for Biden.

[JohnSJ]

7. I don't think so. I think it has to do with this

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/01/biden-democratic-support-shaken-debate-poll/74263208007/?gps-source=AFPTNRIDN121977&utm_source=impact&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=121977&utm_content=1164263&irclickid=SVGxws3JHxyPTBCUSO1QY2vxUkC0JxwpRTfn1o0&irgwc=1

[BigDemVoter]

34. But the question remains. . .

If they are core Democratic supporters, who else are they going to vote for? Biden IS our candidate. . . . Like him or not, they don't have a choice, and I think if someone counts as a "core supporter", they would understand the urgency of voting Democratic.

[JohnSJ]

36. They may not vote because they think it doesn't matter.

[Amishman]

51. Or independents not voting because they don't like either

We need to remember that indies are a huge and growing mass of voters.

[Silent Type]

42. If only core Democrats were enough to win this election. Don't think it's enough.

[TheRealNorth]

47. Biden's gamble is that he will appeal to independents.....

To offset any defections on the left. That debate performance hurt his chances with independents based on the polling I have seen.

[JohnSJ]

5. That is what I think I saw steve kornacki talking about, but only caught the tail end of it. This is not good

and we cannot ignore it.

I believe the polling has its problems for various reasons, but they are accurate in measuring trends, and post debate the trends do not favor us.

We are going to have to come to terms relatively quickly that some type of corrective action needs to be taken if the trend continues while we have time.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

6. Ya know what?

Fuck that noise.

[JohnSJ]

11. We can't. If the trend is going against us, that cannot be ignored, and they need to find some antidote to

reverse it while there is still time.

[Deek1935]

17. We are four months away from the election, polls mean absolutely nothing right now, and so just chill please.

[JohnSJ]

24. They are an indicator, not an absolute, and we ignore them at our own peril. but I can tell you right now, I do not

believe the powers in the Democratic power are ignoring them.

[emulatorloo]

25. Good point. Normal voters are not paying that much attention during summertime. Only weirdos like us.

[Silent Type]

43. Polls are the best predicter we have at this point. I'm not ignoring them. But it's your right to.

[Deek1935]

14. Polls don't mean diddly shit right now, and debates are not predictive of presidential elections. Please just chill.

[emulatorloo]

18. It is the same as their last poll though. No change from debate.

Link to tweet

?t=IPv9Sm6QNzcllMJmhIn5aQ&s=19

Obviously we have still have work to do though. GOTV

[Lovie777]

37. What are the odds in exact poll in April?................................

hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Nothing changed.......................

makes me wonder

[Mountainguy]

32. Non-response bias

[honest.abe]

8. That's probably outside the MOE.

Things are starting to snowball.

[Deek1935]

16. Polls mean NOTHING right now, and debates are not predictive of presidential outcomes.

[iluvtennis]

33. Exactly. Majority of ppl don't pay attention to presidential

election until the fall.

[Silent Type]

45. Historically debates haven't meant much. But this wasn't your typical historical debate.

[FBaggins]

35. It's well outside the MOE... but it isn't a change

The President needs to win the popular vote by 3-4 points to win. So six points down is really nine points from victory. Well outside MOE

But it’s also unchanged from multiple previous CNN polls … indicating no impact from the debate - which is awfully positive news

[FloridaBlues]

9. I think we all expected a small dip in polling. Unfortunately the tv pundits and journalists

Aren’t going to let this story go away. I believe the more trump gets exposed in his rants we will see Dems and others give more support back to Biden.
If dems keep fighting amongst ourselves republicans will sit back and enjoy the show.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. The reason for calling for an early debate

was to trigger a bump in the polls. That was plan A. May plan B (whatever our team agrees on) be more successful.

[FloridaBlues]

59. It will be. The republican convention is coming up soon

Perhaps a 3 Day dose of what republicans will do if they take control plus the orange man himself speaking will wake up more Americans to not vote for them.

[triron]

10. Do not underestimate the stupidity of the American voter.

[DemocratInPa]

12. I am really concerned for the first time in months that Trump is...

going to win...

I have been preparing for the possibility for months, but the last week for the first time I have come to the term that it is probably going to happen and Dems will only have themselves to blame. We continue to eat our own.

When Trump takes rights away, I better not see any non-Biden supporting Dem complaining

[TheRealNorth]

49. If Biden loses....

It will be because independents didn't vote for him.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

13. Gee

The station whose "moderators" claimed it's not their job to fact check that POS can go piss up a rope.

President Biden is supposed to spend his debate time correcting that lying sack of crap? Who did they poll? Some randos in the restroom?

[tman]

15. Post debate noise. I'll worry if in 30 days, there's no reversal.

Biden can turn this around.

Yesterday was a good start.

[Thrill]

23. Blind Optimism

I admire your positivity though

[tman]

40. Nothing close to blind optimism

I just think we should give Biden some time before engaging in blind panic.

Compared to some of the Biden loyalists here, I would say I'm pretty objective.

Biden has to turn things around.

[JohnSJ]

29. Tell that to the Democratic voters and politicians who are publicly expressing concern. Forget the media and even the

polls, if within our own ranks we cannot keep it together, we are screwed

[tman]

44. Concern is warrented..

Which is why I say he can turn it around.

Do you suggest we give President Biden no time to try and do so?

[JohnSJ]

55. I am not suggesting any such thing. Problem is from all indicators the media is not going to stop on this, especially

since some have actually called the media out on their coverage of it. They take it personally I believe, and will double down on it.

This will be up to the party leaders and President Biden to decide the corrective action necessary

[asm128]

19. See the following

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219091673

[pwb]

20. So we are ahead.

It is opposite world.

[Freethinker65]

26. People hadn't seen much of Biden. He had received little media exposure pre-debate

People expected to see the Biden they remembered during his decades of public service. Instead, people that tuned in saw a lackluster performance. Biden appeared older than they pictured him in their mind from previous years. Biden seemed a bit lost or confused (perhaps actually conflicted as to if he should try to respond to the question asked by moderators or attempt to correct Trump's lies, but regardless, the optics were horrible). Biden didn't fight back against Trump in a vigorous manner like they believe they would have.

So how does Biden recover. If that really was a one off incident (or one of 15 to 20 over 500+days...reported to sound alarming, but honestly if I spaced out from illness/exhaustion/stress only that many times in over 500+ days, I would be quite happy with myself), Biden needs more exposure so people can see he actually is the same qualified competent honest guy they voted for to return sanity and stability to the country. If Biden is unable to do that, then something is really wrong.

[RJ_MacReady]

28. we need to get ahead of this

President Biden is going to have to double his efforts. No scripted speeches either people need to see him speak off the cuff and even take unscripted questions, im sorry but prepared speeches are not going to cut it. Simple plugging out ears and hand waving away the concern is a fatal mistake. Yes the media is hyping this up but unfortunately people are largely uninformed and ignorant. The casual voter is being bombarded with "Biden is too old and can't speak" nonsense. The party needs to stop panicking and get everyone on board as well. Pretending this will simply pass is also a huge mistake.

[jimfields33]

54. I was hoping he was going to take questions last night

I’m stunned at how the team didn’t have the president take questions from the press. It was a perfect opportunity and could have started a different discussion at how awesome he did. Lost opportunity in my opinion.

[RJ_MacReady]

60. he needs a new campaign team

They instead should be encouraging him to take questions and make unscripted speeches. Townhalls would be best at this. Taking unscripted questions and answering them in his own words. It's both personal and shows he is still competent. This hide and wait until it goes away approach is...deadly.

[BComplex]

30. CNN...'nuff said.

[emulatorloo]

31. "identical to the results of CNN's last national poll on the presidential race in April"

Link to tweet

CNN poll on the question before getting to Biden replacements: how much impact did the debate have?

“voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s last national poll on the presidential race in April”

[shrike3]

56. I've heard that the poll numbers haven't budged for months. Strange.

[LakeArenal]

39. The next day Biden gave the usual great speech.

Why not focus on that and every other past speech.

Oh yea…..

[budkin]

53. Because the debate is the thing most people watched

That's why it was so devastating.

[LakeArenal]

57. So it's done. It's done. Move on.

Stop focusing on the past and promote the future.

The next day he gave a great speech as he always done.

If they don’t watch politics then they didn’t watch that debacle. It was the least viewed debate.

“Nearly 48 million people watched the Trump-Biden debate on TV, but that's nothing compared to previous election years
Alice Tecotzky Jun 28, 2024, 3:41 PM ET

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Donald Trump and Joe Biden debating on a television screen

Emily Elconin, Reuters”


“Last night's presidential debate attracted 47.9 million viewers across networks, according to early Nielsen numbers, making it the most-watched non-sporting event of the year. Still, audience numbers paled in comparison to previous years.”

[Lovie777]

41. RWers sure want Pres Biden out.................

24/7

[The_Counsel]

46. CNN's Job Is Done, I Guess...

...and the rest of the "news" media won't shut up about Biden's "bad performance."

He's still not the convicted felon who wants to be king, but no matter.

[Wednesdays]

48. There will be only one poll that matters in 2024

If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's as simple as that.

[4139]

50. That poll was taken too soon after the debate, When emotions were still high

Need to wait for polls taking this week
into next week, After the emotions have settled

[budkin]

52. The debate was a disaster

Now we are seeing the fallout.

[beaglelover]

58. This is not good news. In June 2020, Biden was UP 9 points over Trump in the same poll.

CNN has interesting and good news with polls for Trump vs Harris.