Please ask the following "Presidents" what they think about polls: Dewey, Dukakis, Kerry, Romney, and Hillary Clinton.

[Deek1935]

If polls meant anything predictive, especially this far out, Thomas Dewey, Mike Dukakis, John Kerry, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton all would have been Presidents.

Forget polls right now. Of course there was going to be a TEMPORARY post-debate dip especially with all this chatter and sowing of division about Biden, pushing a bullshit narrative about him being so in crisis and in trouble and bla bla bla bla.

If we stay together, support our nominee, and train the fire on The Orange Rapist we will win.

[Silent Type]

1. Polls are the best we have, trust the science and look at multiple polls. If one is behind the worst candidate in

history (trump), one has to adjust their campaign strategy.

Biden appears to be getting out there now, and maybe it will produce positive results among the voters that will decide this election.

I guarantee Biden's team looks at internal polls every day. Hope movement shows up in major polls soon.

[W_HAMILTON]

9. Meaningless polls aren't all we have.

We could actually be talking about policy differences, comparing accomplishments, etc. -- you know, actually substantive matters rather than polls that have not only shown to not be predictive, but to be flat out wrong.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Polls arent meant to be predictive. They're meant to be snapshots.

[BootinUp]

12. Talk about blinders

Here is an idea. Go back and look at other recent elections 3 to 6 years and see what are the factors in our favor. DO THEY STILL APPLY?

[Silent Type]

14. Sorry, I'm not going dream my way into another election like 2016.

[BootinUp]

15. You can do whatever you like, I will try

Using all the information available to me to understand the race.

[Silent Type]

17. I'm doing the same. Main thing I'm stuck on right now is we are running against the worst candidate ever, and still

likely behind.

[BootinUp]

19. Poll respondents will eventually catch up

Many have been ignoring the race as much as they can. Many of Trumps supposed supporters will not show up (my prediction of how it will go). Trump has a ceiling of support that is lower than Biden’s ceiling.

[Silent Type]

20. Hope so. Some marginal Democrats might not show up too. Undecideds might skew

toward trumpsters afraid to admit it, and we haven’t even gotten to October surprises.

[Deek1935]

22. Relying on polls this far out is falling down a rabbit hole coated in bullshit. They are PREDICTIVE of NOTHING.

[Silent Type]

24. So is sticking your head in the rabbit hole.

[radius777]

29. +1. Polling data - especially the polling averages - are a fairly reliable metric

and they are showing us behind for months now, even before the debate. The president's approval rating and right/wrong direction also are big ones. The betting markets also a pretty good predictor, as they are taking in all info, both official and unofficial. The markets have had us behind for a long time now, with the gap widening.

The base of each party always thinks that the other party/candidate is so bad that 'obviously' it will be easy to win the election. But swing voters and independents don't view the world via a partisan or ideological lens. And they are more affected by political performance and personality traits. The polls show that age is a big concern for them, which has only grown since the debate.

[Silent Type]

23. Yeah, right.

[Walleye]

2. I don't trust polls that much, it's like horse racing, go by past performances

Joe Biden has won nine times in general elections and lost none. Trump has run twice and lost one and never once had the majority of the people on his side. I don’t know if anything major has changed.

[Doc Sportello]

3. At this point in 1988, Dukakis was up 17 points over Bush1

Per Lawrence O'Donnell last week.

[Silent Type]

6. Was that before or after Dukakis didn't look so cool in the tank photo? Superficial I know, but that is

how too many people decide how to vote nowadays.

[Doc Sportello]

7. Perhaps you could google that

Lots of things happen in a campaign. Point is, which I thought was obvious, is that polls can be way off, especially at this time of year. But if you want to have a rock solid belief in them, go ahead.

[Silent Type]

8. What if the polls are wrong and we are further behind?

[Doc Sportello]

10. OMG!!!!

Here's what you can do: step away from the computer till election day, go to your local Democratic headquarters and dedicate all of your free time to electing Joe Biden and local Democrats. I know it's not as much fun as handwringing on here but your time will be much better spent.

[Silent Type]

13. What makes you think I'm not working for a Democratic victory? So, you don't think polls could be wrong the other way?

[Doc Sportello]

16. So you're multitasking?

Posting numerous times on here in between licking stamps, etc? If not, better Google the headquarters and get on with the real work.

Hey maybe dump is ahead by 17 points and we can post pics of dump riding in a big truck. Or maybe Joe is ahead by 17 points. Or maybe Selma Hayek is going to ask me to marry her - after her divorce of course. Oh these maybes are fun. Sorry not a handwringer but you do you.

[Silent Type]

18. LOL.

[W_HAMILTON]

11. Even more of a reason for us not to give a damn about them.

[Deek1935]

25. You don't know how American presidential elections actually work. In the end people vote on

presidential GOVERNANCE while in office. The big picture over time. Polls don't mean a fucking thing. Totally non-predictive especially this far out. Actual predictive key factors are whether we are in an election year recession, foreign policy success, domestic policy change, party unity, incumbency, etc.

You seem to have swallowed the "polls polls polls" fallacy. They are momentary snapshots, have lag time factors, have margins of error and other flaws, and are therefore non-predictive.

In 2016 ALL the polls showed Hillary winning the EVE of the election. The PRINCETON polling consortium had her at a 99% chance of winning. How did that work out?

[Silent Type]

28. That's my opinion, although I am not a self-proclaimed expert in elections like you.

[OhZone]

4. Democrats have been way out performing polls the last few cycles

[BannonsLiver]

5. Yeah! You tell 'em!!1

[former9thward]

27. Not true.

On this date Clinton was about 4 points above Trump in 2016. She finished about 3 points above Trump. She did not win in the electoral college because of a failure of her campaign to have campaign events in the upper Midwest.