Op-Ed: President Obama, Drop Out Of 2012 Race, November 15, 2010
...I'm making a point here about candidates getting undermined by members of their own party.
Joe Biden isn't the first, although this generation did take it up a notch with the ageist demagoguery.
Obama's 2012 campaign manager, Jim Messina, makes several good points in 2023 which we can apply to the present hysteria over one bad debate performance.
(excerpt)
A lot of Democrats romanticize the 2012 Obama campaign. But if you were there, you know it was a knock-down, drag-out battle — not just with Republicans, but with bad media narratives. One such narrative hit us on Nov. 3, 2011, when the New York Times Magazine published an analysis giving Obama a 17 percent chance to win reelection. When that magazine hit my desk, I knew it was trouble. Not because I believed it, but because of the anxiety it would stir up. Immediately, we had donors, elected officials, and my Mom absolutely freaking out. We couldn’t get supporters to rallies. People were calling for me to be fired.
...we have an early poll screaming doom and gloom for a Democratic incumbent. Yes, we are officially in the Democratic bedwetting era for the 2024 presidential election. But here’s some advice from someone who’s been here before: Don’t panic. Here’s why. Early polls are unreliable
___Silver’s 2011 analysis did not age well: A year later, Obama wiped the floor with Mitt Romney. But Silver wasn’t alone. In this publication, polling done a year out had Obama tied with Romney in 10 battleground states; we ended up winning 9 of them. In December 2011, a Gallup poll had Obama losing to Romney by 5 percent across 12 battleground states; we won 11. Bill Clinton trailed about this same time in his reelection cycle. A year before a presidential election, it is just too early to get an accurate read on how the people will actually vote. There are a few reasons for this.
The people who take the time to answer pollster questions right now are already politically engaged. They are either die-hard partisans or trying to make a point. But swing voters aren’t tuned in yet and may not decide who to back until very late, and they are the ones who will decide this election.
read more: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736
...2012, again:
The Democrats' overwhelming defeat in the midterm elections leaves President Obama with difficult choices ahead. Patrick Caddell has some advice: He should declare himself a one-term president, and spend the remainder of his time in the White House focusing on national problems, not campaigning.
JENNIFER LUDDEN, host:
Now, the Opinion Page. During the 2008 election, you could hardly get through a day without hearing someone, somewhere shouting: Yes, we can. Well, President Obama did win. But now, halfway through his term, some are asking not can he do it again, but should he even try.
Political commentator Patrick Caddell says no. In this weekend's Washington Post, he co-wrote the op-ed "One and Done" with Douglas Schoen. To be truly great, they argued that President Obama should drop out of the 2012 race and spend the next two years focused on the many issues facing America.
LUDDEN: So it's been two weeks now since the overwhelming defeat of the Democratic Party in the midterms. They clearly - one could say many Americans are dissatisfied with this administration. You argued that Mr. Obama would actually improve his credibility by dropping out of the 2012 race. Explain that.
Mr. CADDELL: Well, Doug and I, what we argued was that it's a very special moment. The president was elected with the promise to bring the country together and to change the way Washington has done business. In many ways, people feel he has failed that. The elections were - let's face it. As a Democrat, I have to admit, there were a vote of no confidence in the president and in the congressional party.
more: https://www.npr.org/2010/11/15/131334551/op-ed-president-obama-drop-out-of-2012-race
Patrick Caddell was a political commentator. He was also a pollster and senior adviser to President Jimmy Carter.
more:
Nearly half of US voters don't want Obama in 2012
According to the Quinnipiac University poll, 49 percent of those surveyed said a `no' to Obama in 2012, while 43 percent said he should have a second term.
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the polling institute, said staunch Democratic Party members still support Obama, "but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain".
https://www.deccanherald.com/world/nearly-half-us-voters-dont-2530643
...here's Jim Messina again:
"You can’t predict what hasn’t happened yet. Think of all the election-shattering news that happened in the year before. In 2008, the subprime bubble popped, cratering the economy. In Obama’s reelection, the economy rebounded and then Hurricane Sandy hit, focusing attention on the president’s empathy and effectiveness in a crisis. In 2016, we all got sick of the phrase, “But Her Emails!” and in 2020, a global pandemic turned the election on its head. Next year, what will it be? Will Trump go to prison? It’s possible. (Can you campaign from behind bars?) I wouldn’t even call these October surprises — you can almost guarantee that something big and unexpected will happen."
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