Could Trump theoretically be disqualified from running in 2024? (Probably not, but fun to think about)

[democrattotheend]

No, I'm not talking about his convictions. I'm talking about the 22nd amendment.

The plain text of the 22nd amendment is as follows:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

Note that the first sentence says no person shall be elected more than twice, regardless of whether they serve both terms (or either) they were elected to. Most likely "elected" for this purpose means chosen by the electoral college, but since Trump claims he won the 2020 election and even sent his own "electors", I think the argument could be made that unless and until he concedes the 2020 election to Joe Biden, he is ineligible to run in 2024 because he's term limited. Probably wouldn't hold up in court, especially with this court, but I would really like to hear someone ask Trump about it. If, as he claims, he's already been elected to the office of President twice, how is he eligible to run again?

[Polybius]

1. That's my least favorite Amendment anyway

Clinton and Obama would have easily won their third terms.

[democrattotheend]

2. I'm not so sure about that

Presidents who aren't running for reelection often get a boost in popularity in their final year. Gore "lost" in 2000 in part because of "Clinton fatigue." IDK if Clinton himself would have won another term. Obama probably could have, but his approval rating went way up in his final year because a lot of people hated both of his potential replacements. I don't think he would have wanted a third term though, TBH.

I am not a big 22nd amendment fan either and think it's kind of unnecessary, since it's pretty rare that any president has the popularity, health, and desire for a third term (there's a reason nobody even tried for one until 1940), but I would love to see it used to trap Trump in a debate or interview.

[Polybius]

7. Well, look at it like this

Clinton's approval went up after the impeachment, and never went down. He was more popular than Gore, who barely lost (even if he won, it was hyper close). I believe Clinton wins Florida outright.

Obama beat a strong candidate in 2012. I love Hillary, but her negatives were high. Much higher than Obama's.

On the flip side, Reagan wins in 1988 easily, but no worries for us. He would be no worse than Poppy Bush, and maybe no Iraq.

[democrattotheend]

8. I don't think Reagan would have been able to run or win in 1988

He was popular enough, but due to his health I doubt he would have run, and if he had he'd have probably faced questions like the ones Biden is facing now.

[Polybius]

9. His health was largely hidden

He was also able to make a decent speech at the Republican convention in 1992, and even made an appearances until 1994. I don't think he would be facing the questions that Biden is now until around 1991 or 1992.

Also, you said two term Presidents tend to get popular at the end. Not W Bush. His approval was historically low in 2008.

[democrattotheend]

3. I'm not so sure about that

EDIT: Deleted accidental duplicate reply.

[Deuxcents]

4. So..if TSF wins this election, it's only for one term? My bet is he's not gonna win but..

If he should, the SC will find a passage in the Project 2025 Bible and give him the green light

[democrattotheend]

6. There's no question Trump can only serve one more term

Unless the 22nd amendment is repealed, Trump cannot run in 2028 if he wins this year. That's clear cut. I understand that he has already said he wouldn't run in 2028, which is irrelevant because he can't under current law.

What I'm saying is, one could make the argument that he is ineligible in 2024 if, as he claims, he actually won the 2020 election. Since the 22nd amendment says "no person shall be elected more than twice", if he won in 2016 and 2020, he can't be elected in 2024, even though he never served the second term he claims he was elected to. I would love to see a reporter or debate moderator ask him how he is eligible to run if he actually won the 2020 election, as he claims.

[Jersey Devil]

5. Easy way around that for Trump

After his 2nd term he can simply have one of his kids run and promise to be his/her chief of staff, wink, wink.