What's Going On Reminds Me Of The Pa. Senate Race

[gab13by13]

We were told by top brass Democrats that Pa. needed to run a moderate candidate to win, that was Conor Lamb. John Fetterman blew that theory right out of the water.

I believe that the Big donors and top Democrats were shocked to see Joe Biden being a successful progressive president. I believe the big donors thought that Joe was more moderate and so now he must go. The tell is that Kamala Harris has been on fire on the campaign trail fighting for women's and minority, and worker's rights, sounding very progressive. She is also unacceptable to the big donors.

I am curious what Brooklynite's opinion is, he knows the top brass, but he has gone silent.

Is it really something so simple that Joe is too progressive?

[Ninga]

1. Joe was just as progressive in January as today.

Naysayers had plenty of time to front primary candidates.

[gab13by13]

2. Maybe so,

but there has definitely been an organized campaign to bring Joe down. My thread was an explanation if it was about tax cuts.

Last night Himes made it sound like it was just about polls, numbers, so does Plouffe.
Nancy Pelosi's weak response scared me.

I don't believe that Joe would lie about his health.

All I know is that it is Democrats who are bringing Joe down.

[Ninga]

4. I understand. The fix is in. There is such a strong

effort to bring him down that there is nothing the grassroots can do to save him. Tragic. Just tragic. I can’t believe how heartbroken I am about how vicious this has become.

[Amishman]

3. It's really about Trump and his competitiveness in the polls

We've been telling ourselves for four years or more that Trump was unelectable and if he ran again, we'd have a blue tsunami. So the tightness of the race is absolutely breaking a lot of brains.

So the kneejerk reaction is to blame Joe and think we need a better candidate. Add to this that Joe is middle left - a compromise. Progressives think a more progressive candidate would do better, Moderates think a more moderate candidate would do better.

Not to doom or derail, but if this election does end up being close, we need to do some serious introspection and understand why. It isn't just Joe that's polling tightly, all of our alternatives are about the same. This suggests the issue is with what we are offering overall and not specific candidates.

[yardwork]

6. Good post. I think it's a lot of factors.

I agree with the OP that big money donors tend to be more conservative. Most of them, as individuals, are not going to be particularly progressive. BUT I don't think that Biden's policies worry them. Biden has delivered: the economy is better, inflation is down, the market is still up. No recession.

It's the polls. It's the worry that Biden might lose to the monster.

The polls, in turn, reflect people's casual awareness of what they see on the news. And the MSM has been relentlessly tearing Biden down for years. The MSM wants Trump because Trump's crazy behavior sells papers, ads, and clicks.

Too many Americans are uninformed and misinformed.

[SamuelTheThird]

5. The alternatives floated are not moderates

The two non-Wh names most often suggested are Newsom and Whitmer. both progressives.

And everyone knows the person likeliest to get it were he to step down would be Kamala.

Maybe it isn't a conspiracy, maybe it's just people unsure what to do to win against trump.

[yardwork]

7. I agree.

I've said before I think that DU - and in many ways the Democratic Party - is more united now than in other times of crisis.

We simply haven't decided what to do. That's ok. We will.

[shrike3]

9. Where on my TV can I watch a united Democratic party?

Maybe I just can't find the channel.

We're tearing each other apart. We're making the Kevin McCarthy debacle look like a lovefest.

[yardwork]

10. I just disagree.

We, as individuals, are very worried. That's good! We finally agree that we have a common enemy and he's a real threat. We're exploring options and getting mad at one another but we are not tearing each other apart.

In 2016, we tore the party apart. This is different. We'll come together stronger.

[shrike3]

11. Not only are we tearing ourselves apart, we're making fools of ourselves.

We were supposed to be the sane party. Now look at us.

And wait 'til the media shifts gears. Joe dropping out would be a vindication of any part of the narrative they want it to be. "Joe is X. What did they know and when did they know it?" They've already tipped their hand, that's what it'll be.

I'll be taking another victory lap if/when that happens.

[yardwork]

12. My advice: stay mad. Stay skeptical .

We lost in 2016 because too many Democrats stayed home, or voted third party out of pique. We were complacent. We didn't take Trump seriously as a threat.

Two months ago this board was full of handwringing and fussing about Biden. He's not doing this, he should be doing that. There was whining and veiled threats not to vote.

We're not seeing that now. Everybody woke up.

[shrike3]

13. Okay, if you're talking about the rank and file, that's one thing.

Definitely happening.

[shrike3]

8. In what world will the media roll over and play lapdog?

They've already tipped their hand. "Kamala Harris has a lot to answer for." Already said on one of the news shows. They will continue to attack, albeit with a different narrative. "When did (insert name) know, and when did they know it."

IOW, Joe stepping down will be considered a vindication of the narrative: He's old, he's demented, he has Parkinson's, take your pick. And so they will go after The Coverup. They think they're in Watergate 2.0.

[SamuelTheThird]

14. Sure, but that might not gain traction

Traction with the people needed to win- the double haters. They want a younger alternative to both candidates. Even if people think there's a cover-up, perceived shady actions are not really deciding this election. If they were, Trump would already be finished.

[shrike3]

16. If the media tears him/her apart, it won't matter how young he/she is.

Removing a candidate at this juncture is risky at best, suicidal at worst. Then there are the lawsuits already planned by Republicans to keep Biden on the ballot. You think it's a mess now? Watch.

[SamuelTheThird]

18. Well, Biden is now losing the battleground states

That means-

A. All the state polls are wrong. And Biden wins. We know Biden's team wanted the debate so early because they hoped it would put them ahead of Trump. So, what are we to believe here?

B. The state polls are right. Trump not only becomes President, but endangers Congressional races. This not only affects the US, but the future of the entire planet.

C. Biden is able to turn this around. Maybe focusing more on Project 2025 can do it. So far talking about democracy generally being in peril has not worked. Jan 6 should have made him disappear, but it didn't. So, Id love to hear what is going to turn all this around. There's another debate in Sept. What if it plays out like the last one?

D. Biden actually pulls out a win. You don't have to study acturial tables to see he may not make it another 4 years. Kamala as President needs approval from Congress to appoint a VP. See what a mess that could be?

[shrike3]

19. What's the plan for when the Heritage Foundation sues in all the battleground states

to keep Biden on the ballot? Some judge will take it. And then it'll wind its way through the courts. And gets to the Supreme Court -- what fun. And meanwhile, the ballots will be in limbo.

Since you apparently have vast political knowledge, you must have a plan.

[karynnj]

20. The counter is that in terms of GOVERNING Biden is continuing to lead well

I do not expect this to be like second term Reagan, where after the fact it was clear he was not the one leading. In Biden's case, he personally has been involved with both the Middle eastern mess and China to name two intractable problems.

The economic course taken by this administration was and is a different approach. Other than Biden's long term adviser Jared Bernstein there were few economists who thought it could work ... and it did. He is currently the chair of Biden's counsel of economic advisors, having been on that board throughout the Biden years and having been on the transition team. Bernstein was an adviser to VP Biden in the Obama years, where he was often seen as a progressive voice vs the more centrist Obama advisors.

Only recently has Biden spoken about how these policies, which he referred to as expanding the economy from the bottom up rather than the Republican trickle down was something he did which most prominent economists said would not work.

[Grown2Hate]

15. For what it's worth, in the average of polls up to election day, Fetterman was BEHIND Oz

47.4% Oz to 46.9% Fetterman (-0.5%).

Fetterman won the election 51.2% to 46.3% (+4.9%).

I feel (HOPE?) that's about how this race plays out.

Democrats have been overperforming the polls since Roe, consistently.

Not saying we put our heads in the sand, or that there isn't work to do, but it's been a very consistent pattern for 2 years now.

[brooklynite]

17. I've gone silent about what?