My way-too early 2024 projection

[ColinC]

Based on a rough idea that states where polling is around 50/50 and have an abortion amendment on the ballot, they will give Biden a slight edge in the actual vote. If Democrats keep Biden as their nominee, I strongly feel we have something like this to look forward to:


https://www.270towin.com/maps/0JpA9

[MOMFUDSKI]

1. I don't think anyone realizes the power of

the women come Roevember

[WarGamer]

3. Look at the recent abortion votes in States...

Plenty of GOP women voted to save abortion rights but will pull the lever for a GOP candidate.

[ColinC]

4. They will overwhelmingly support abortion rights and pull the lever for GOP candidates

And a few will vote for Democratic candidates while Democratic turnout in those states will reach a record high: That is what makes the difference. It worked for Bush to an extent in 2004 with the anti gay marriage proposals. It will likely work for us even better.

[WarGamer]

2. So your theory is... polling is 100% off.

[ColinC]

5. No. More like 40%

https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/election-polls-are-95-confident-but-only-60-accurate-berkeley-haas-study-finds/

[lees1975]

7. I think its off by at least that much.

It has been through most of this election season. They're not even in the ballpark in a lot of statewide elections.

[ColinC]

8. Yeah. I mean there's a lot of places where despite polls, you can probably reasonably say it's around 50-50 and others

Where he is probably well above 50% in likely support.

[MOMFUDSKI]

6. Ask Prof. Licht what he thinks of polling

at this point in time

[Polybius]

9. I doubt we win FL

I also think we're gonna lose at least one state that we lost in 2020. Most likely is GA and/or NV.

[ColinC]

11. NV has an abortion amendment so I think we win it fairly comfortably

Fl also has an abortion amendment, which I think will be a lot closer than 2020 -and I think we can squeak by. But if we win it, it will be very close.

I’m not confident about Georgia at all though. I think it might be close but that’s about it.

[Polybius]

13. If Trump were smart, he'd pick Gov. Brian Kemp as his VP

But we all know that he's not smart at all.

Hate to say it, but Kemp is popular there.

[ColinC]

14. The impression I get is Kemp hates Trump

Along with most of the GOP political establishment there -I think. That might go in our favor to an extent.

[Wednesdays]

10. I agree, Florida is within reach

As is North Carolina.

It will all depend on what happens in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

There will be only one poll that matters in 2024. If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's as simple as that.

[ColinC]

12. I am not confident about NC since they don't have an abortion amendement. But it could be very close.