538 has Biden up

[Brainstormy]

NEW:
@FiveThirtyEight
- Presidential Election Forecast (updated July 12)

Chance of winning
🟦 Biden: 51%
🟥 Trump: 49%

Electoral College
🟦 Biden: 271 🏆
🟥 Trump: 267
——
Swing States Projected margin

• Michigan - 🔵 Biden +1.8
• Wisconsin - 🔵 Biden +1.1
• Pennsylvania - 🔵 Biden +0.6
• Nevada - 🔴 Trump +1.1
• Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1.7
• Georgia - 🔴 Trump +1.8
• North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +2.4

[madaboutharry]

1. Can someone explain to me what all the hysteria has been about?

Is the real reason the fear he will die in office and then VP Harris will become president? Is that what this really is about?

[JustAnotherGen]

3. I think so

But we have a lot of Democrats with cultural conditioning we have to contend with.

[Conjuay]

5. no, he wants the rich

to pay their fair share and not be welfare recipients.

Crazy idea, right?

[madaboutharry]

6. Yeah, that too.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. I don't believe

Trump is going to win Arizona or Georgia.

[rurallib]

4. Wasn't the big schmoe over there just saying

Biden should drop out about two weeks ago?

[Bok_Tukalo]

7. NE-02 just got a lot more important

WI, PA, and MI just puts in it Congress and that’s a Trump wins 26-24.

Although 25-25 is a possibility.

[BWdem4life]

8. Nevada will not swing to Trump.

JMO of course, but there's no recent history to suggest it will. GWB carried it by very small margins and it hasn't swung red since - even though tRump was an incumbent in 2020. So, why would anything change this time around?

Also I think PA will not be as close as current polls show. Can't imagine a popular incumbent losing his "home state".

Wisconsin is the big question mark, IMO. That's why the Gross Old Party is holding their convention there. Razor-thin margin in 2020, but the power of incumbency will hopefully hold the line. If not, and GA and AZ swing back, then we lose.

I'm optimistic that won't happen.