Something I do not understand.

[tgards79]

Biden's strongest supporters right now in his battle to preserve his candidacy are progressives (like AOC) and Blacks (as in the Congressional Black Caucus). These demographic segments are also the reason why Biden trails in the polls. If young people, who I assume are disproportionately progressive, and Blacks were supporting Biden at "normal" historical levels, Biden would be leading in the polls and no one would be talking about his fate as a candidate. Can someone explain this ironic disconnect? Thanks.

I'm not criticizing anyone. I have an honest interest in understanding the answer.

[Wounded Bear]

1. I think part of it is that those demographics don't poll well...nt

[tgards79]

3. No, that's not it

There is no evidence of that at all. They poll fine. Harder to reach, but they ARE reached and also re-weighted if necessary.

[gab13by13]

2. I was wondering the same thing

Biden is getting a lot of love from progressives, not as much from moderates.

[dflprincess]

8. Sort of the opposite of 2020

Joe may have turned out to be more progressive than the moderates like.

[Mister Ed]

9. Or Joe may have turned out to be more progressive than the money likes. n/t

[Blue Owl]

4. Maybe the polls are bullshit

[tgards79]

12. You want to take that risk?

Not me!

[onecaliberal]

5. The polls predicted the red wave in the mid terms for months on end.

When we voted. What happened. No red wave. The fascist media are lying bastards. They need to be crushed into the ground after we put Biden/Harris back in the White House.

[tgards79]

11. That is inaccurate.

The polls, or rather those who analyze them, predicted the Dems would lose 15-20 seats. They lost 9. The PUNDITS predicted the red wave, based on history. Don't confuse the polls and the pundits.

[onecaliberal]

15. It's all fucking propaganda spread by fascists. Period

I’ve been voting for 4 decades. Never been polled. The polls are complete bullshit.

[jimfields33]

14. It sorta was a red wave as republicans got the popular vote. But the votes were not spread out enough.

That’s a good thing.

[GoreWon2000]

6. The polls consitently show this race a tie

It was a tie before the debate and it's a tie now. The Marist poll released yesterday showed a tie but with Biden now ahead by 2 points but still within the margin of error. This is showing that the dem base is sticking with Biden and it's undermining the anti-democracy elitist argument for removing him. The large, loud, raucous, diverse crowd in Detroit made it abundantly clear that they support Biden and they're ready to fight. Biden gave a great speech "The Reidout" showed the entire speech. I've learned through my own campaign experience that campaigns are rollercoasters and long, hard fights. This one is no exception.

[tgards79]

13. Not true

The poll aggregation show Trump +2-3 in national 2-way polls, +4-5 in 5-way polls, and leading in every swing state by +5 or more except Wisconsin and Michigan, where Biden is even in Michigan and Trump +2 in Wisconsin.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
http://www.borntorunthenumbersarchive.com/

Nate Silver:
Biden trails Trump by around 3 points nationally, which implies a poor position in the Electoral College. In fact, Biden’s Electoral College win probability is the lowest to date in our forecast, having slipped to about 1-in-4.

[GoreWon2000]

24. Friday Marist poll shows Biden up by 2

and the democratic party base is holding strong. My 20 years of campaign experience has always been that polls jump all over the place between now and election day. We've only just begun to fight. The word about Project 2025 is only just beginning to get out. There's a very long way to go until November. This race will come down to which side gets their voters to the polls. The Biden-Harris campaign is heavily investing in campaign infrastructure in battleground states while the money the magas are raising is going to pay tRumps legal bills. In the famous words of Yogi Berra, "it ain't over till it's over."

[Dlpger61]

7. Minorities are supporting Biden

The conversation should be why are so many white people voting for a convicted felon, rapist, lying conman that caused over 1 million deaths during his time in office? Please stop blaming minorities for this crap. No person with common sense should vote for someone like Trump. So if Biden loses the election it is not because minorities or people of color did not come out to vote him, it is because too many ignorant white people voted for Trump.

[onecaliberal]

16. THIS. That post is reicht wing talking points. But they're allowed here now.

You also don’t have to support the candidate.

[Hekate]

19. Fight back

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016381271

[Dlpger61]

20. That post is not

That post is speaking truth, you can believe it or not. So are you denying that millions of ignorant white people are not voting for Trump the convicted rapist, lying conman? I support Biden/Harris, I want you to understand the big problem seeing that you fail to do so.

[onecaliberal]

22. The patriarchy IS voting for Trump. You are reading it wrong.

[Dlpger61]

21. Not reict wing talking points

That post is speaking truth, you can believe it or not. So are you denying that millions of ignorant white people are not voting for Trump the convicted rapist, lying conman? I support Biden/Harris, I want you to understand the big problem seeing that you fail to do so.

[Hekate]

18. I think women of all races & ages are also supporting Biden. The more the news about what Dobbs really means

…gets out, the more women are utterly appalled.

[Beastly Boy]

10. Are we talking about something trending on social media or actual statistics?

[Hekate]

17. Inquiring minds would like to know...

But one thing’s for sure, he doesn’t really like our answers.

[LeftInTX]

23. Because they're apples and oranges

Congress is not the public.

Biden also worked to earn those recent congressional caucus endorsements. Hopefully, it will increase the public's support.

With the AA population, there is the issue of Gaza. There has been a thing that started in the early 60's with the Nation of Islam that carried over to the Black Panthers and Black Lives Matter that Palestinians = African Americans. It is also similar with progressive Latinos.

Additionally some white progressives are against Biden because of Gaza. We had someone resign because of Gaza.