Maybe Trump wasn't the target.

[kiranon]

Would like to see location of all those who were shot.

[0rganism]

1. maybe democracy was the target all along

Our "free" press seems to have declared it DOA

[Kid Berwyn]

34. Democracy is their target.

Me the Donald their kkking.

[Wounded Bear]

2. I do know that 150 yards is near point blank range for that rifle...

[TwilightZone]

5. Not for a nervous, distracted, or inexperienced shooter.

There are reports he was kicked out of a high school rifle club for being a horrible shot.

[Attilatheblond]

47. Maybe he's been practicing since high school

And maybe, if reports of him being bullied for years are accurate, he wanted to show bullies his new trick: taking out the Bully In Chief.

[FBaggins]

12. That's a bit of an exageration

The rifle can be quite precise at that distance - by which I mean that a bench-rested rifle would create a very small grouping of shots assuming there wasn't much wind. But I don't think we've heard yet whether this one was equipped with a scope.

It wouldn't be a difficult shot for someone with a reasonable amount of training. But just being an "enthusiast" doesn't guarantee any particular skill level.

[Irish_Dem]

15. Internet says a couple of months practice and it should be an easy shot at that range.

????

[TwilightZone]

16. And the internet is always right.

As I noted above, he was kicked out of a high school rifle club because he was such a horrible shot that they considered him a danger to others. They were right about the latter but not in the way they probably expected.

There are lots of other factors that the internet probably didn't consider. Nerves, distractions, equipment issues, and the like.

[Irish_Dem]

19. Obviously that is why I am asking the question.

And asking for opinions.

[wnylib]

28. I read that he was not a member who got kicked out.

He was never accepted in the first place because during trials he did not meet their standards.

That was in high school. He was 20 years old at the time of the shooting, 2 years after graduation. So he had at least 3 years to practice.

[FBaggins]

18. And that's almost exactly what I said

The part missing here is that a teenager playing with daddy's AR-15 periodically (even firing off hundreds of rounds) - isn't necessarily getting any useful practice.

I'm decades removed from formal training... but I remember that our unit had kids with their own rifles at home who had to "unlearn" bad habits before they were even marginally competent... while we also had guys who had nothing to unlearn, that became pretty competent in a few days of range work.

[Irish_Dem]

20. Yes it is easier to train a virgin brain.

Well known in ed/psych.

[Kaleva]

39. I wouldn't disagree with that

[Irish_Dem]

42. If you are going to take the most important shot in your life

wouldn't you practice ahead of time?

[Kaleva]

58. When was the rally at Butler first announced?

As far as I can tell, it wasn't first announced until a s short while ago. Far less then 2 months

[Irish_Dem]

63. Good question.

One of our DU members lives in the area, and followed everything closely out of curiosity
and desire to keep track of what was going on. I am going to ask him.

[Irish_Dem]

67. Another DUer who lives in the area just said about two weeks

notice is what he recalls prior to the rally.

So you are exactly right.

The shooter did not have much time to prepare.

[Kaleva]

69. Thanks for finding out!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

53. Back in my Army days I was able to hit a target at that distance using iron sights

Trump is lucky the kid was a shitty shot.

[Irish_Dem]

54. Yes it was not a hard shot.

Trump lucked out.

[FBaggins]

65. One point of consideration

The target did move his head just as the round would have been fired. Most commenting here are imaging normal range-target shooting. But understanding how a target is moving in relation to your aim point is a skill that a hunter might develop... but a kid who shoots at cans or stationary targets never will.

[sarisataka]

66. It has been said he was a poor shot

But was close to hitting Trump's head. If he hadn't turned that last bit he would have been hit in the right rear quadrant of his skull at a shallow angle. It may not have been fatal, but would have been a serious injury

[yagotme]

75. Way too many factors for this situation, and some will never be known.

1. The AR system is generally capable of good accuracy off the shelf, no tinkering required. Fully capable of a hit at that range.

2. Ammunition used? Reportedly bought 50 rd box of ammo, 50 rd packs aren't usually the top of the line stuff.

3. Supposedly had a red dot aiming device on rifle, takes practice to use well, dot would cover up approx. 2/3 of target at that range.

4. Shooter training/skill: High school, poor shot, (at least bad enough to not make team) we know he had been practicing since then, but how much, and how seriously? One can "practice" by going out and blowing off rounds, but that won't help you become a more accurate shooter. An unknown.

5. Shooting position: prone, usually the best position, but on a hot roof with little protection from the heat, causing mental distraction. Roof had low grade slope, peak wasn't very high, so a good rest wouldn't have been readily available, as the bottom of the magazine would be sitting on the roof, not the forearm on the peak, which would have been the ideal.

6. Mental state: He has in his sights the former President of the United States, a crowd of people, security/LE looking for him, had already been spotted by crowd and LE, probably knows counter snipers are searching for him, so he has to shoot accurately, and quickly. To an inexperienced shooter, you usually only get one of these, unless Fate intervenes. He fires 2 rounds at first, small pause, then 3-5 more (depending on reports). I believe the 1st 2 were aimed directly at TSF, as the photos from NYT show, and one most likely grazes his ear. His heart would have been racing (not ideal for accuracy), shots hurried, and no one knows what was going through his mind at that moment. Another unknown.

1,2 and 3 above, the shot could have very well been made by a shooter with fairly limited training, with a good rest. 4 and 6, add uncertainty/unknowns into the mix. Some people are naturally good shots, need little training, and some others NEVER "get it". Don't know where the shooter falls in to this line.

[Irish_Dem]

78. Excellent summary.

I agree, and the mental state compounded all the other weaknesses.

Despite all of this however, he came within about an inch of killing or seriously disabling Trump.

[yagotme]

79. Thank you.

All the prescribed elements were there for a kill shot. TSF may have actually saved his own life by turning his head to the right, putting the center mass of his head to the side, and making the ear the center. The shooter is the unknown, and he may have just gotten lucky with 1 shot. 1 shot close, 1 shot in contact, the rest, who knows? I'm sure an accurate assessment can be made after the scene is fully processed, but you never know if/when that may be released. The man that was killed, was in the general line of sight to TSF, but I'm guessing he wasn't being directly aimed at, just a result of quick spray and pray shooting.

[Irish_Dem]

80. So there was luck on both sides.

I don't know if we will ever get all the details right.

It is an ongoing investigation, and the SS may not want to give out details
that could help a future assassin.

[yagotme]

81. Yup. Failures all around, good luck, bad luck.

I'm sure that day will be studied by historians for years to come.

[Irish_Dem]

82. Yes indeed.

I think LE, SS, protective services will use this case as a teaching example for a long time.

[yagotme]

83. Definitely a "What not to do" teaching aide. nt

[Irish_Dem]

84. If I was teaching the class, I would have all students

each write an essay about all the mistakes.

Starting with the planning stage right up to the press conference by the SS director afterwards.

[yagotme]

85. Single space. 4 pages.

I could probably do that, lol.

[Irish_Dem]

86. We don't know the half of it.

So probably 8 pages if based on all the facts.

[yagotme]

87. Yup. nt

[stopdiggin]

23. Not buying that.

You're talking people that are above average - and have a good deal of experience. And that narrows down the pool a good deal. NOT a 'piece' of cake shot (as some are implying)

[sarisataka]

29. Not quite point blank

But definitely short range. On the Known Distance range the closest we fired was 200m.

[orthoclad]

3. Any other time we'd be seeing

lots of forensics: injury reports like what cut his ear, bullet casings, spent bullets.
Why is there such a dearth of facts?

[Wingus Dingus]

7. Crooks had someone there with him, from a video I saw on here from TMZ

but the poster removed it (can't remember who it was). A female voice screaming "Crooks what are you doing? Get down!" and other voices in the crowd behind the building where Crooks was positioned. I have not been able to find that since. Maybe it was AI or a hoax, but it gave me the impression he was with others. Edit to add: seems weird that we have no information by now.

[ScratchCat]

55. No, that's not correct

The people who took that video were on CNN last night and they played the video dozens of times. A woman is screaming the name "Ross" and is saying "get over here". Other people can be heard saying unintelligible things, but the woman is clearly calling to someone named "Ross".

[Wingus Dingus]

71. OK you might be right.

[orthoclad]

70. Very weird indeed

Lots of what pro wrestlers call kayfabe - the heroic posing, the high drama, the God-saved-me crap.
All theater. Very little dry fact.

[rzemanfl]

10. Facts are being withheld. I don't know why.

Could be a blame game between locals and Secret Service.

[greatauntoftriplets]

21. The police would have a press conference.

Something stinks about this.

[global1]

26. How Soon After JFK Was Shot - Did We See Pictures Of The Gun Oswald Supposedly.....

used?

I seemed to recall seeing a picture of a balding guy with glasses holding up the said gun/rifle over his head at the police station.

I thought it was very soon after they recovered the gun/rifle in the Texas School Depository.

[John1956PA]

33. The evening of November 22, 1963.

I watched the television coverage of the man holding up the rifle for the press to see it in the police station. The television images of that fateful day are permanently cast in my memory.

[orthoclad]

68. That was 60 years ago

this is the instant twixxer age

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

4. Diagram of the shooting

Last edited Mon Jul 15, 2024, 02:35 PM - Edit history (2)

https://images.wsj.net/im-979968/social

The spectators who got shot were in the stands in the lower right corner of the image.
Edit: Per other poster, witness says the person killed was in the space between the shooter and trump.

[rzemanfl]

8. The ear bullet could have also hit someone in the stands.

Is there a count of the number of rounds the shooter fired?

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

9. I've heard/read 8

But haven't seen that definitively confirmed by LE yet.

[rzemanfl]

14. All they have to do is count the spent brass.

[John1956PA]

35. I am thinking seven.

A fusillade of three, a pause, and finally a fusillade of four.

If you play the video clip of the event, you can count the shots for yourself.

I think that the fifty-year-old male who was killed by a shot to his head died from a round fired in the first fusillade.

As an aside, I will note that I was watching a YouTube live stream of the rally when the event occurred.

[rzemanfl]

56. Didn't the authorities fire at least one shot to kill the shooter?

There probably were more.

[John1956PA]

57. When listening to the audio of the video clip, I think that I hear seven sniper shots and then . . .

. . . the louder, final shot by the counter-sniper.

[rzemanfl]

60. A little bit of information from the authorities would be nice.

I read here that there was a cop on the roof when the shooting started.

[John1956PA]

62. My theory is that the sniper got off three shots, then the LEO popped up from the ladder.

Then, I think the sniper turned his rifle toward the LEO, who immediately retreated down the ladder. Then, I think the sniper resumed firing. He got off four more shots, and then he was killed by the counter-sniper.

[wnylib]

31. An eye witness who was next to the guy that was killed

said in an NBC interview that the deceased man was in the line of shooting between the shooter and Trump.

[ok_cpu]

36. Thats where one of the papers (can't recall which)

diagrammed the victims and blood on the bleachers. Low on the bleachers to trump's right, between him and the shooter.

Not jumping to conclusions while being investigated, but seems reasonable for one well-aimed shot and then several more quickly when he realized he missed. Especially if lowering his aim to follow trump to the ground.

[John1956PA]

40. On edit, I am removing the original content of this reply.

ON EDIT: I stand corrected. As stated in the post below, the doctor and the head-shot victim were positioned between the sniper and Trump.

[wnylib]

41. Yes, he did say specifically that the deceased man

was between the sniper and Trump. I remember because the interviewer questioned him after he said it to be sure that she understood. He repeated it.

His reference to the deceased man being in the crossfire between Trump and the sniper begins around 5:00 and continues to 5:45 in the clip.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/witness-trump-rally-describes-seeing-person-died-shot-head-rcna161744

[John1956PA]

43. Thank you for correcting me. I watched the video again.

You are correct. The doctor and the head-shot victim who was next to him were between the sniper and Trump.

Thanks again for correcting me.

[fishwax]

44. Am I wrong to be surprised that Secret Service or local law enforcement didn't already have someone up on that roof?

When I first saw the layout I was really surprised. I mean, I guess I'm used to events in more crowded urban areas, where there are roofs everywhere and it would be much harder to secure them all. But here it's all open field with just one cluster of roofs behind the stage and one cluster off stage right. It would seem to me like that would be something almost automatic to cover. But I'm not remotely an expert.

[uponit7771]

59. I am surprised and will never ever trust the SS no matter who is in office. That was a LOS, high point with a flat top

... that was left to local law enforcement.

That's crazy ... no freakin way

[Blue Cape]

50. That angle does not line up with the ear injury.

At all.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

61. How does it not?

The shooter was in an elevated position to his right. He was shot in the right ear and he turned his head towards the right immediately before the first shot.

[Walleye]

6. It did seem like the guy was more interested in a mass shooting event than an assassination

He probably would’ve shot more people if the Secret Service hadn’t finally brought him down.

[TwilightZone]

17. Not necessarily.

He missed his presumed primary target. There's no known reason (yet) to believe the follow-up shots weren't targeting Trump, as well.

[WarGamer]

27. He didn't miss... Trump turned his head.

[Hugin]

11. That's one of my alternative scenarios...

Trump got in the way of yet another mass shooter attracted by where they knew a crowd would be. He was just another gun violence victim. Take a number blow hard.

[Polybius]

13. So out of 1,000's of people, Trump is only one of three to get hit?

What would the odds of that be? Almost like saying "Maybe JFK wasn't the target.'

[Quixote1818]

24. Yes! This post makes zero sense and the shooter was a 20 year old

Incel with no scope. These conspiracy posts are driving me crazy.

[Blue Cape]

52. Where did you see no scope?

[Quixote1818]

73. Sorry, I forgot to respond to this

I heard a Democratic congress woman say this and it was talked about on a few videos. I Googled it and wasn't having luck until I asked ChatGPT and this is what it said:

Did Thomas Matthew Crooks have a scope on his AR-15 rifle?
ChatGPT

Searched 3 sites

Thomas Matthew Crooks did not have a scope on his AR-15 rifle during the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. The rifle he used was a DPMS Panther Arms-produced AR-15-style rifle, which was equipped with a standard 16" barrel and chambered in 5.56×45mm NATO​ (The Independent)​​ (Wikipedia)​. Although he was seen using a golf rangefinder while scoping out the rooftop location before the shooting, there is no evidence indicating that the rifle itself was equipped with a scope​ (Wikipedia)​.

[stopdiggin]

25. yep. pretty useless, even as speculation. (nt)

[sarisataka]

22. Maybe he always did target shooting

Every Saturday at the fairgrounds. He was just following his routine and thought he could shoot around the rally...

Seriously, I wonder if there is a shark left in the ocean that has not been jumped.

[Ocelot II]

32. Maybe all the sharks have been electrocuted by boat batteries.

And maybe that's why so many people are jumping them this morning. They're just floating and immobile, really easy to jump.

[iemanja]

30. Remember that post someone did about conspiracy theories

It was very thoughtful. You should read it.

[Maru Kitteh]

37. Christ on a pogo stick.

[FakeNoose]

38. Well ... John Hinkley Jr. didn't want to kill Ronald Reagan either

He just wanted to be famous and impress Jodie Foster. So he shot the President.
Hinkley did get famous I supposed. And he spent the rest of his life in prison.

What's the story with Lee Harvey Oswald? Did he really kill JFK or was he set up to take the fall by the real assassins (who might have been Cuban emigres)?

[FBaggins]

45. One correction there

Hinkley has been out for almost a decade now.

[FakeNoose]

49. OK ... I failed to google that

Thanks for the correction

[brooklynite]

48. How would the shooter know who was in the seats behind Trump?

Trump was the only person guaranteed to be there.

[anglesphere]

51. So the shooter's plan was to...

...wait until the no name(s) he really wanted to shoot at were at a Trump rally with SS agents, swat teams and a host of other security personal around?

I think it's a safe bet he was aiming for TCF.

[BrightKnight]

64. Perhaps his ear was the target or perhaps he hit the ear in error.

Trump’s reaction was kind of weird. M

[usedtobedemgurl]

74. If I was trying to kill someone else....

It would have been easier to do it at fireman's home or work (or whoever's home who was the target. Seems like there would be a lot less security in other places and you might not have to die.

[yagotme]

76. You need to watch Jack Reacher.

Then you will know...

[polichick]

77. Yes, it's ridiculous that the victims' positions have not been made clear...

And that there has been no info on Trump’s injury.