New from 538

[videohead5]

Link to tweet

[stopdiggin]

1. thanks. (nt)

[ForgedCrank]

2. His response

the the nutjob shooter and the entire incident overall is what is helping.
Many could benefit by following Joe Biden's example rather than what they are doing, which is stoking conspiracy Q-level Alex Jones crap and fighting over glass v/s bullets.
Alert on me if you will, but I have sympathy even for Donald Trump and his family (not to mention the dead and injured) when something like this happens. That's how compassionate people feel without directives or guidance.
Now, can we get back to the winning formula and start focusing on policy? We have an election to win.

and for my unfortunately required disclaimer: this is a general statement, not directed at OP or any other individual.

[Think. Again.]

3. Go Joe!!! 🌊 !!!

[orangecrush]

4. Great news

[WarGamer]

5. 53% chance of victory... nice

[calguy]

6. As has been argued here before

None of the events of the past few weeks, from Joe's bad debate to trump being shot at, changes the overall race. Those Biden supporters who are questioning his age, while a valid concern, will not cause them to vote for trump. Biden beat trump in 2020, and trump's base has certainly not expanded since then.

I've reduced my news consumption the past few weeks because I'm tired of hearing it discussed over and over again. Fours years ago I would have hoped Biden would serve one term and pass the torch, but he decided to run for a second term, so I'll support him in that decision. It makes no difference whether or not I think Joe is too old. The older I've gotten, the wiser I've become, and I think the same is true for Joe.

Joe's been around. He knows what he's doing. Support him or face the wrath of another trump presidency.

[krawhitham]

15. trump being shot is not factored in yet, it will be lumped in with the convention bump that all parties always get

There is always a convention bump, and your lucky if you can keep 25% of the bump after a month

Between the shooting and the convention he will jump up for a bit, and talking heads will scream for Joe to quit again

The media is acting like this is their 1st election, polling always ebbs and flows. You can't panic every time it ebbs. Obama lost 5 points with his bad debate and Mitt was polling ahead for the 1st time. Two weeks later (before their 2nd debate) Obama's numbers had snapped back

Stay Calm and Carry On, polling always ebbs and flows

[calguy]

17. Exactly

Trump may... and I mean may, get a bounce after their convention, but then it's OUR turn to draw the distinctions and set the narrative. Once the campaign begins in earnest, all the bullcrap we're dealing with right now will be a distant memory. (I hope)

[karynnj]

35. I agree that a bounce may or may not happen

It is genuinely hard to predict. From memory, the only convention I remember that was actually negative was the GHWB hatefest, where Buchanan and Marilyn Quayle were the most sickening. Yet, in 2004, when the GOP was arguably even worse, think Zell Miler, PH bandaid, GWB did get a lift.

There supposed Unity convention would likely be more helpful, but I doubt Trump himself can contain or even recognize when he is spewing lies and hate ... witness his first TS post after speaking of unity. Unity .. it wasn't.

[ITAL]

38. Even that convention Bush had a bounce

I remember listening on the radio a day or two afterward that he closed the gap with Clinton overnight. Clinton quickly re-established a lead however and held it until the last few days when Bush again briefly closed to within the margin of error for a couple of days. The last weekend Clinton regained a lead outside the MOE and won comfortably.

[yardwork]

48. The media was not on GHW Bush's side that time.

I remember they hammered him relentlessly for breaking his "no new taxes" pledge and for calling issues "the vision thing."

Conservative columnists like George Will went after Bush - I remember he called him "Mr. Resume."

It's unusual for a sitting president to lose. With Carter and Bush, it was partly because the media turned on them.

[crud]

7. I had a thought about Biden being a rock in a sea of chaos...

that the shooting will help his pole numbers because he provides a safe haven, stability in these chaotic times. A desire to return to the days before TSF.

[SomedayKindaLove]

32. Safe haven is a key concept

Studies have shown people test more empathetic to others when they feel safe. Which is one of the reasons why the GOP works so hard in making people feel they are not safe.

[Quixote1818]

8. After a month of brutal news for our side. Nt

[dchill]

9. THIS IS NOT FITTING THE MEDIA NARRATIVE!

[Frank D. Lincoln]

10. They're shitting bricks.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

25. Fuck the media

Sick of all of them

[11 Bravo]

51. Fuck the media, there are "Democrats" right here at DU who will dispute this.

[fishwax]

11. we're on our way to winning ... keep up the good fight

[Johnny2X2X]

12. Biden is still the favorite

And I think he will open a significant lead before the end of the Summer.

[Ress1]

13. Extraordinary, despite the big money and media.

[littlemissmartypants]

14. Every little bit helps.

[doc03]

16. Meanwhile we have people on DU that bust their

ass to post every comment made that says Biden doesn't have a chance and we will lose the House and Senate. That serves no function other than driving down votes.

[Jazz Jon]

26. Trolls

I suspect those that you refer to are Trolls.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

27. You should go to the other one I visit

Nothing but chicken little diaries non stop since the Too Old crap started.

[Xavier Breath]

46. Out of curiosity, what's the other one you visit?

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

47. DK

[SoFlaBro]

39. A LITANY of pants-pissing posts and shitty hand-wringing and chicken little nervosa syndrome run fucking amok.

[TommieMommy]

18. Wonderful 👍

I hope and pray 🙏 he wins

[surfered]

19. Fingers crossed

[Emile]

20. Go Fighting Joe

[angrychair]

21. Again, I ask

Where is all this "we will be defeated" talk coming from with our Congress critters?!?
There is absolutely nothing in the public domain to support their position.

Starting to get a little uncomfortable because, I don't want to think it, it's starting to feel a lot like misogyny and racism because they don't want to take the chance that VP Kamala Harris becomes president.

[totodeinhere]

22. But Nate Silver still has Trump as the favorite. The Cook Political Report

also favors Trump. The fact that 538 narrowly favors President Biden is encouraging, but overall if you take into account a wide range of sources any objective observer would have to conclude that the race is essentially a toss up. I have maintained from day one that the election will be close and probably decided by a few thousand votes in a few swing states. But those who predict that Trump will win by a landslide are way off I think. Neither candidate will win by a landslide. The country is too closely divided for that to happen.

[SlimJimmy]

40. Cogent response. Bravo.

[valleyrogue]

44. You are discounting women. And Vance will be nothing but an MRA lightning rod

for women's anger. It won't be a tossup.

THIS is the wild card here, and few "experts" note the obvious that has been brewing since Dobbs.

[liberalla]

49. I know! It's like they had their memories erased and... women? what? huh?

what are you referring to?

Just watch! Women of all political stripes, races, ages, economic levels will show up!

[Firestorm49]

23. I'll believe it when I see it.

[ITAL]

24. Encouraging

It's best not to get too high or too low. A 53% chance of winning is better than a 25% chance, but it's still little better than a tossup. Still it's nice to see it trending toward Biden at the moment.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

28. I'm putting

538 in the Like column for now.

[Dem4life1234]

29. The ageism is disgusting

The ageism the media showed. I hope all the wonderful elders say fuck you media and mass vote for Biden!

[SomedayKindaLove]

33. I did see a poll

A month or two ago that showed the black vote was NOT leaving Biden and the real shift was people 65+ leaving Trump for Biden.

Can’t remember who did he poll but it was about the only optimistic one for Biden at the time.

[valleyrogue]

45. Women will, too.

All one has to do is look at what has happened with the states when abortion has come up for a vote.

Women are pissed off royal, and it is all across the political spectrum.

[SomedayKindaLove]

50. Yep. This is why I'm confident Biden will win

And the off year elections seem to suggest a Blue Wave in 2024.

[Wednesdays]

30. Awesome! But take nothing for granted. GOTV!

There will be only one poll that matters in 2024. If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's a simple as that.

[jmbar2]

31. Thanks for the uplifting note

[usonian]

34. The issues, the GIANT issues, the life and death issues have not changed one iota

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=19157636

Everything else is smoke and flak.

Just point them out to the person crossing state lines to get medical care, or fleeing state-deputized "border patrols"

I, for one, would like my social security payments to continue.

[tman]

36. Those numbers are not based on actual polls.

Take with a giant pinch of salt.

Just sayin'

[Mme. Defarge]

37. Formidable!

[BigDemVoter]

41. Thank you!

I needed just a little boost today!

[Backseat Driver]

42. Sounds good; I'd crawl to the ballot box to vote for "old" Joe - Ask him about that, and so are facism,

racism, and Christo-misogynistic zealots--but, hey, they're the working folks and I'm retired, white, and used to have mortgaged homes. Now I live to minimally make those in the 1% richer instead of balancing my life with being at-home living on some strange definition of love, LOL, family, what's left of that tree's leaves, and a little leisure at the pubic library...thank goodness, not much longer!

[czarjak]

43. Keep 'em on the down-low.

Where they belong.

[prodigitalson]

52. nice