Trump gets no boost from shooting, loses ground to Biden per Morning Consult

[ucrdem]

"Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost," Newsweek, Published Jul 16, 2024

Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point with 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The findings also reveal that Trump's lead has narrowed slightly since the firm's previous survey, conducted between July 12 and 14, which put Trump two percentage points ahead with 44 percent to Biden's 42 percent.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-no-poll-boost-after-assassination-attempt-us-election-1925680

Oh nos, he's melting !!!

[Tarzanrock]

1. Let's see what "boost" the Turd gets after the Milwaukee Coronation and Royal Hate Fest

It will be interesting to see what "boost" the Turd gets following his Royal Hate Fest and Coronation in Milwaukee.

[ucrdem]

6. I've been wondering too, but I just put the reply in the wrong place.

So long story short: I don't think it will change a d@mn thing. JD Vance doesn't expand the appeal; in fact he makes it even less appealing,

[Bengus81]

35. Do they love his mini pad or not? Haven't seen polling on that..........

[oldsoftie]

2. Once again, meaningless. Show us the battle ground states.

And yes, I'm going to beat that horse every time because THOSE ARE THE ONLY POLLS THAT MATTER
Why do people spend money on this nonsense.

[HarryM]

4. Not many polls matter

At this point in time

[oldsoftie]

25. Also true; lets look again in Oct

[Wednesdays]

38. There will be only one poll that matters in 2024

If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's as simple as that.

[ucrdem]

8. Amazing battleground-state poll of 18-34 year olds.

This appeared in US News earlier in the week; naturally they completely ignored what it shows -- Biden WAY ahead -- and instead gave it some wacko Trump-mumble headline:



US News, July 11, link: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-07-11/poll-rfk-jr-bests-trump-but-biden-suffers-more-in-a-wider-race

[SunSeeker]

10. Wow, so that's why Trump called RFK Jr. trying to get him to drop out?

But I am appalled that 27% of young people would vote for RFK Jr.

[hueymahl]

20. I'm not

I work with mostly young people. They are mostly repulsed by both parties - they feel they can’t trust anything either side says (a great opportunity for Democrats, btw). Kennedy is a protest vote for them.

Btw, these are not my beliefs, but just anecdotal from what I have been told.

[oldsoftie]

26. I've seen the same. The "cool" candidate. nt

[Bengus81]

36. They say that literally every election............

Same ole,same ole....

[Self Esteem]

34. It should be the exact opposite. Trump is absolutely aided by RFK Jr. in this poll.

Even if he drops to third among this demographic, RFK Jr. pulls more from Biden than Trump here. Without RFK Jr., Biden leads Trump by nearly 20 points, which is probably similar to the margins he saw in 2020 (he won the 18-29 vote by 24 points in 2020, so not hard to assume expanding it to 34 knocks that margin down to 20ish) but with RFK Jr., that margin drops to 12 points. And this is likely to be Biden's biggest demographic margin-wise.

The only way Trump is boosted by RFK Jr. dropping out is if he thinks RFK Jr.'s votes will go to him - but this poll clearly shows they go to Biden more if he's not in the race.

[SKKY]

14. Now, if we could just get this demographic to actually vote, we would be in good shape.

[yardwork]

23. What a ridiculous headline!

"Biden suffers more" but he's still way ahead!!

And I love "some wacko Trump-mumble headline." Keep saying that!

[Self Esteem]

33. I don't think it's ridiculous.

It's always about margin with these things.

In 2020, Biden won the 18-29 vote 60-36, or by 24 points. Granted, this is a poll of 18-34 year olds, so I'm sure the margin he won of that demographic would be a bit smaller in 2020 (no data exists that I can find) but he likely still won it by 20 points.

Assuming he did, when you factor in RFK Jr., his lead over just Trump goes from around +20 in 2020 to +12.

That's eight-points worse than he did in 2020.

Take RFK Jr. out and the margin is 59-41, or 18 points, likely the same, or very similar to 2020.

Trump is absolutely aided by RFK Jr. being in this poll as it neutralizes Biden's largest demographic, even if he comes in third because RFK Jr. is pulling more support from Biden than Trump here (in this poll, Biden's percentage goes from 59% to 37% and Trump's goes from 41% to 27%).

[oldsoftie]

27. UGH Kennedy. Really wonder where those would go if he were OUT

Thank you for that poll; that age group is about 60% of registered voters.

[hueymahl]

18. 100%

National polls that make us feel good are just mental masturbation. I guarantee Biden’s campaign is not focusing on national polls.

[Cha]

3. BooHoo...

Last edited Wed Jul 17, 2024, 03:03 PM - Edit history (1)

.. All That "fist power" for Nothing

[ucrdem]

7. Oh but all is forgotten in believer land.

Trump has managed to turn his entire party into a bunch of head-bobbling moonbats. It's scary. Plus they instantly believed the shooter was a card-carrying Antifa member devoted to reelecting Joe and Kamala.

It never ends does it!? Mahalo Cha!

[Cha]

9. Yeah, that's why I pay less than ZERO

attention to them.. Helps the Sanity.

Places like faux Screws them UP and Does their thiking for them.... and the US M$M gives them an Assist.

We live in a Bizarre World and I think we're Doing good holding on Considering the Twilight Zone we live in.

Aloha

[oldsoftie]

28. EXCEPT at my conventions. nt

[ucrdem]

5. I've been wondering about that.

Night 1 was pure "He is the Alpha and Omega!" religious wingnuttery, plus Sean O'Brien piping up with his own "one tough SOB" applause lines. Barfalicious.

Night 2 was more abject groveling and @ss-kissing, though I frankly did not watch or listen to more than a few seconds.

Tonight is Hillbilly Elegy night which should be even more disgusting as King Prick gets the red carpet treatment.

Then of course Trump, saying who knows what. The most barfalicious night of all.

So my guess is: if someone doesn't already LOVE Trump and his fear-mongering friends, they won't find anything new here. Zero bounce.

Meanwhile Biden has kicked into full campaign mode and is giving speeches and TV appearances round the clock and actually telling us what we DON'T already know, namely his astonishing accomplishments,

So I think Joe will continue rising, as he usually does about this time. He might even get a boost from his own convention.


p.s. I notice Applegrove beat me to this article by 12 hours, my apologies. Good job sir and hats off to you Mr. Applegrove!
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219169228

[trusty elf]

11. ...

[Joinfortmill]

12. How can he be leading? Who are these people?

[ucrdem]

16. Biden is steadily picking up support.

Now he's underwater in four of six key swing states he won in 2020; a month ago, he was behind in 5, and in January he was behind in all six. So he just keeps surging and the debate apparently didn't slow him down, per Morning Consult, July 06, 2024:

Biden Has Lost Little Swing-State Support Following First Debate
Biden holds an advantage over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin

SWING-STATE ANALYSIS : KEY TAKEAWAYS:
* While the first 2024 presidential debate appeared to alarm some Democratic leaders, our surveys of swing-state for Bloomberg News show the matter has done little to change the underlying dynamics of the contest.

* In the aggregate, Biden continues to underperform Trump among each candidate’s respective 2020 voters and their own party bases, while the two presumptive nominees are splitting independent voters almost evenly.

* Within the individual states, Biden leads former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, cementing several months of slightly improved performance, but has no advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/swing-state-polling-july-2024

[underpants]

29. Yes he is. Consistently everywhere

Every recent poll I’ve seen nationally or in battleground states Biden is gaining.

[Joinfortmill]

31. Thank you.

[moniss]

13. I wonder if the media

and a few turncoats will admit that's quite good for a man who is supposedly "barely there".

[jaxexpat]

15. GOTV and we win every time. We outnumber the bastards and must be heard.

If election day were a national holiday (why the hell isn't it?) there would be no "conservative" party.

[underpants]

30. GOTV will be the key as always

[jaxexpat]

37. It's democracy's secret weapon.

[twodogsbarking]

17. My comments would be crass. Let us all have a great day.

[Crowman2009]

19. So doubling down on violent rhetoric, making wild accusations, and relying on bats*** crazy conspiracy theories ...

...doesn't help? Gee I wonder why?

[et tu]

21. unite and gotv/ roevember nt

[Fyrefox]

22. The assassination attempt changes NOTHING about Trump!

I was worried about what bounce, what political capital Trump would get out of the assassination attempt. Lord knows, Trump rode that horse for all that it was worth, even inferring that the Almighty had spared him! But Trump's supposed pleas for "unity" are just for Republican unity. He continues to be the same hate-spewing, divisive agent of chaos and opponent of democracy that he always was. I marvel daily that Trump has supporters at all. What jobs would you or I be able to secure or even appeal for if we were felons with 34 convictions?!

I'm normally a news hound, but I simply cannot stand to listen to too much of the Republican convention! I simply can't stomach the lies, the fear-mongering, the misrepresentations, the elevation of the unworthy, and the Trump-groveling that goes on there with practically every utterance...

[underpants]

32. Chaos is the key IMHO

People are tired of the chaos. Moms specifically are tired of it. They want stability for their kids and their kid’s friends. This weekend was chaos WITH gunfire and guns = GOP.

[Johnny2X2X]

24. Biden is winning

It's close, but Biden is still winning.

There's a narrative that it's a foregone conclusion Trump will win now. We need to fight that everywhere we see it.

[LizBeth]

39. My first thought is this will get him votes, then watching the Republicans for a day

my second thought was, people are/were so tired of the drama around Trump and this is just more of that. This was just a reminder how all the time you had this crap with Trump daily and people are exhausted. Still exhausted from four years ago and that it would not help him but remind people why they do not want them. Happy to see this.

[Dem4life1234]

40. Hard to feel sympathy for him. He encourages violence.

[Mad_Machine76]

41. Which is why

I can't understand the fevered grip of doomerism that has infected Democrats and progressives on social media and elsewhere. Methinks that they decided to leap off that cliff a bit too soon. Trump's VP pick won't help him much either.