Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw, new AP-NORC poll finds

[Big Blue Marble]

This is a very troubling poll that indicates our party is disarray:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll, sharply undercutting his post-debate claim that “average Democrats” are still with him even if some “big names” are turning on him.

The new survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted as Biden works to salvage his candidacy two weeks after his debate flop, also found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that he has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February.

The findings underscore the challenges the 81-year-old president faces as he tries to silence calls from within his own party to leave the race and tries to convince Democrats that he’s the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump. The poll was conducted mostly before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It’s unclear whether the shooting influenced people’s views of Biden, but the small number of poll interviews completed after the shooting provided no early indication that his prospects improved.


https://apnews.com/article/biden-trump-poll-drop-out-debate-democrats-59eebaca6989985c2bfbf4f72bdfa112

[Etherealoc1]

1. More BS polls

[realtruthflavor]

37. I would not discount a poll from the AP/NORC

They are one of the higher quality polling outfits around.

[True Dough]

53. Welcome to the DU!

So you put just as much stock in this AP poll, surely:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219171697

[Eliot Rosewater]

86. Putin trolls are everywhere. We have to realize that.

They are also here at Democratic Underground.

Pushing this idea that we all want to replace Biden is a maga Putin operation.

[Big Blue Marble]

104. Are you saying the Adam Schiff is a Putinist?

2/3 of Dems are dupes for Putin? And loyal DU's who have been here for decades are
trolls for Putin?

[Ocelot II]

2. Funny how a couple of weeks of the media constantly harping on a single event

can overcome 20+ subsequent events in which Biden showed his competence and his command of facts and issues. They have created this FUD. Now people believe it.

[ITAL]

5. That's kind of what I think

I have no doubt the poll is accurate. But it's also because people are freaking the hell out because they don't think Biden can win (I know some people in real life like that!)....and that's largely because of the never ending dooms day talk.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

13. These numbers have been like this for a long time.

This is from February 2024

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-americans-on-biden-age/story?id=107126589

This is from September 2023

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/09/05/biden-age/

Like it or not, people have been saying this for a while. The debate provided a spark, but the tinder was already there.

[BaronChocula]

21. Thank you

Context, people. Context.

[uponit7771]

34. Thx, M$M is full of assholes

[wnylib]

44. No, people do not believe it. I call BS on the poll.

And why do the polls show up here? Trying to persuade Biden backers to change their minds or give up in discouragement?

Ain't gonna happen.

[BComplex]

85. Totally agree with this post!

[Eliot Rosewater]

89. Like I said in another post, Putin trolls are everywhere

They hate our country. They hate our democracy and they hate us.

[shrike3]

16. Gee, we've got our own Nostradamus.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

4. By comparison, less than 10% of Democrats in Congress have called on Biden to drop out.

(Others may be thinking it, but haven't said so publicly.)

In any case, this shows it isn't an "elites"-fighting-the-people situation. And it's not a recent thing, either. Polls have shown people have had this attitude towards both Biden and Trump for a long time.

[lees1975]

9. I highly suspect any poll with that high of a percentage of Democrats thinking Biden should drop out

is phony and unverifiable. Something is messing with the numbers, and it's not poll responses.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

17. If you don't like that one, there are plenty of others.

I linked some in my comment above.

Like it or not, a lot of people, including Democrats, feel this way. Our job is to convince them that it's a secondary concern after real issues. Denying that these voters exist, or that they don't have these worries, isn't helpful.

[jmbar2]

28. It's a very small sample - around 1200

Then they are citing subsamples of younger voters. I question the validity of it.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

36. 1200 is enough for a national poll. It's not about the sample size, but the p score.

And margin of error is about 3.5% which is pretty standard (good for election polls, actually).

[jmbar2]

82. Seems too small for such a diverse set of voters as in the Dem party

If you break that into subsets by age, SES, ethnicity, rural/urban, seems too small for such high diversity population.

[Bitbit]

70. Thank you

The MOE is 3.8%.
It’s not a very accurate poll of the entire country.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. Well, it's a web survey of about 500 adults who self identify as Dems, MOE +/-5.8%

Make of that what you will.

[wnylib]

48. +1000

[Renew Deal]

7. I wonder what the percentage is at DU

[Ocelot II]

8. Actual people or bots and trolls?

[Renew Deal]

12. People like to pretend it's only bots and trolls

[Ocelot II]

22. How do you know they aren't?

[Renew Deal]

25. You never really know

But some have been here a long time. Also, with the numbers being around 65%, it's inevitable.

[Goodheart]

97. I'm wondering why people here would think bots and trolls would bother with DU.com?

This is not a mainstream place. These posts reach, what, .1 % of voters? This is not Facebook or twitter. Almost zero people here would switch away from voting Democratic, so why expend any energy here at all?

[Goodheart]

83. Fingers in their ears, shouting LA LA LA LA LA

[Big Blue Marble]

15. It would be the reverse from what I see. N/T

[BlueCheeseAgain]

19. I'm guessing most people who think that are laying low or have been banned.

[Goodheart]

87. Bingo

[Goodheart]

58. Hard to tell when discussion is punished.

[IA8IT]

10. Should I answer every call I get?

[Renew Deal]

14. No, only mine

[IA8IT]

62. 1-???-???-???? do share!! Caller ID has said It's me calling. $5/month extra for that BS..CenturyLink

Done and gone with them. Told me nothing they could do about it.

[Xoan]

11. Don't catapult propaganda.

[Butterflylady]

18. Didn't look like that in Michigan.

[BaronChocula]

20. But they'll come around

when November is here and they'll realize that there's no Demo-Claus who'll arrive in a sleigh full of toys and goodies.

Not that I'm verifying the accuracy of this poll, but I'm curious as to why some Dems feel the need to push Biden aside. He's doing well as POTUS and he has a competent VP. I think some of the fear might be over what they think OTHER people are thinking rather than who they think is right for the job. They know that OTHER people are giving the side-eye to the competent VP for SOME reason or other and being scared into dropping their support.

I just don't get that.

[Big Blue Marble]

26. This is not the point that we need to face.

Of course, these people will vote for Biden. It takes more than Dems to elect
a president. When 2/3 of the base have lost confidence, we are not going to
win the Independents and low-information voters.

[shrike3]

29. So, what's the plan? I keep asking for one. Haven't heard back yet.

People apparently think if Biden drops out it'll be all better.

[edisdead]

38. Exactly! They have no plan.

[Big Blue Marble]

41. If the Party is imploding, and it seems to be,

We better come up with a plan and fast.

[shrike3]

43. Then do it. I'm tired of the party dithering around like this.

Republicans would never have allowed this to happen. They'd have either shut it down or gone to the White House and done the Nixon thing. Going to reporters and feeding the narrative is not helping. S#$t or get off the pot.

[shrike3]

71. Dithering and leaking to the media is not a plan.

They'd better get their shit together and fast. The Republicans would never have let this go on as long as it has.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

47. I mean, the plan is obvious. You and I may not agree with it, but it's obvious.

Run another candidate. Probably Kamala Harris.

[shrike3]

67. How? When? Are we going to do the mini-primary thing, like the NYT helpfully suggested?

And then what? What do we do about the media? Anyone who think they're going to go "Yay!" might as well clap their hands and believe in fairies, because all that'll happen is the narrative will go in a different direction. Media will take it as a sign that Biden really is incompetent and do the "what did Dems know and when did they know it?" There've already been hints. And what about the Heritage Foundation's threat to file lawsuits to keep Joe on the ballot? Some judge will take it. There's always a judge that will take it. And it will wind its way through the courts, wasting precious time. And you can bet some in the media will double back on themselves and say, "Did the Dems make a grave mistake?" So, the party will have to defend itself on that front.

The elite better be burning the midnight oil on this thing because it'll devolve into a mess quite quickly. They'd better be ready.

[Sympthsical]

23. It is incredibly strange how this space bucks widespread Democratic sentiment at this point

It's a little odd.

I don't know what it says, but . . . something.

2/3 of our own voters. And the numbers have been like this for a long time now. This is just a little worse. What was it a few months ago? Something like 54%.

We can't just pretend it doesn't exist. I think the current strategy is to brute force through it. Which, is a strategy. I don't know how helpful it's going to be in November. But it's clear the attempt is being made.

I don't know what the solution is - I truly don't. I'm still a Biden Remains person. But reality demands attention, too. I'm not going to lie to myself or anyone else that the situation isn't what it is.

[Self Esteem]

32. What an utterly bizarre take.

It is incredibly strange how this space bucks widespread Democratic sentiment at this point

This comment makes zero sense. You're going off polls when WE HAD A FUCKING PRIMARY WHERE OVER 14 MILLION DEMOCRATS VOTED FOR BIDEN TO BE THE NOMINEE.

It's absolutely absurd to claim a poll represents Democratic sentiment but an entire primary where Democrats could register their feelings is entirely ignored.

And you find THAT incredibly strange? Give me a break.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

40. There was nobody else to vote for in the primary.

It's not like Biden ran against Harris, Whitmer, or Newsom in the primary.

There's a reason Biden got fewer votes in 2024 (14.5M) than in 2020 (19M). It was a foregone conclusion.

[Self Esteem]

52. Bull.

Biden was the first Democratic incumbent to have a primary challenge from an actual sitting member of congress since Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Whether you liked him or not is irrelevant. He had a challenger and Democrats still chose Biden overwhelmingly when they could have registered frustration by voting for that congressman or even voting uncommitted.

Overall, uncommitted received just 4% of the vote, which was actually less than the total received vs Obama in 2012 (5%). And Obama also received 6 million fewer votes in 2012 than Biden did in 2024.

[GumboYaYa]

63. And no debate...we were not able to see him perform in a high pressure setting.

When we did see him in a debate the performance was abysmal and that got a lot of people, myself included, very worried that he does not have the stamina to run an effective race against Trump. This poll puts a lie to the people who are saying it is the "elites" trying to get rid of Biden. Lots of regular Democrats are very worried because we know we have to win this election.

[Sympthsical]

49. We had a non-competitive primary

That is the plain objective truth widely recognized by everyone except those whose arguments it damages.

We must live within reality in order to make good choices. We cannot make wise choices when our working foundational arguments are predicated on unworkable besides-the-points that are irrelevant to the vast majority of the people one needs to persuade.

37 million Democrats voted in the primaries in 2020. 16.5 million voted in 2024.

Resting on that is not a strong suit.

[Walleye]

51. Well, one of these smart asses piping up now should've run against him then. If he's so weak.

[Self Esteem]

68. Don't pretend to speak truths when you make things up.

Biden was the first Democratic incumbent since Jimmy Carter in 1980 to face a primary challenge from an active member of congress. Maybe it was uncompetitive because the party overwhelmingly supported Biden?

Oh no. That couldn't be. But sure, despite multiple avenues to express their frustration with Biden as the nominee, either by voting for another candidate or uncommitted, Biden still won over 14 million votes (over six million more than Obama in 2012) and had a smaller percentage of uncommitted votes than Obama (4% to 5%).

But polls!

What a joke.

[MontanaFarmer]

66. Wasn't a real primary. The party bosses likely made certain of it.

I think Biden has been an incredibly consequential president. I also think he should have kept his word, been a transitional president, and not stood for re-election. I think he's going to lose to trump if he stays in. Flame away, if you want, but that's one guys opinion and I'm no bot.

[Self Esteem]

72. Are you kidding me?

Biden was the first incumbent since Carter to have an actual member of congress run against him in a primary.

But it wasn't a real primary? It was more real than any primary we've seen from previous incumbents going back to Clinton lmao

[BlueCheeseAgain]

33. What's going to happen is that most of our side's advertising will be attacking Trump.

With poll numbers like this, we don't want the focus to be on Biden in the way we wanted the focus to be on, say, Obama. And we'll have to hope that it's enough.

[Walleye]

59. Biden is only running to make certain Trump never gets back in the oval office. If the Republicans had somebody else.

Biden could step aside

[Calculating]

96. It's because they literally ban you or delete your post

If you post negative stuff

[unblock]

24. There are no apples to apples comparisons

People didn't want to see a rematch, so they're venting. Ana the media is fixating on Biden dropping out because they gave a Republican bias and they can stir up shit on our side, whereas they know Donnie will never drop out, period.

But there is no way to compare how Biden will fare compared to Kamala or anyone else. For the moment, maybe people want "someone else" just because they don't want a rematch and the age bs is an excuse to line for a different lineup.

But anyone else sounds good until you make a particular alternative the nominee and then the republicans and the media start dumping negative crap on the replacement nominee.

Believe me, Kamala or anyone else will get trashed and then respond poorly because they don't have the campaign infrastructure to respond properly.

Just asking "should he withdraw" is heavily biased against Biden because it doesn't make a true comparison and the implications clear.

[wnylib]

54. Well said.

[ChicagoRonin]

27. Let's take our own poll here

Who here has been polled by one of these major polling outfits and answered they want Biden to drop out?

And please, be civil.

Me: No and no.

[Alice B.]

30. No one's polled me.

Unless you count the bizarre, (possibly survey) ones I hang up on because I can't understand the caller and assume it's junk.

I WFH and live with an aging parent who lets the landline ring a lot before answering because they're convinced scammers give up after four rings.

[Bitbit]

94. Not me and

I use to get polled by about 5 reputable pollsters. Landline, cell and email. I always completed the entire survey. That stopped after trump won 2016. I still get calls but the first two questions end it.
Party?
Age?
They don’t poll senior Democrats anymore, IMO.

[Emile]

46. No one polled me.

[jalan48]

35. It's getting to be too late for Biden to withdraw. We'd have another Chicago fiasco without the protests outside.

[MistakenLamb]

39. white democrats*

its Biden Harris then Harris

if this party doesn’t honor the primary results and expects black Democrats to be their mules and stepped over it will the their absolute ruin

[bigtree]

42. bullshit

...'red wave.'

The primary polls, ffs.

Ignore the polls. We're going to nominate the best candidate in this race.

[edisdead]

45. It's because we are falling for it again.

But her emails all over again.

Never mind Biden can obviously do the job since he has been and IS doing the job. But no…. That isn’t enough. We can’t to cast him aside for an innamed person who we don’t know can actually do the job.

We are falling for Republican and media tricks once again.

[Goodheart]

50. As I've said, DU is not reflective of the many Democrats I talk to in real life.

I don't doubt that poll for a minute.

[budkin]

57. Same

I'm among them.

[Goodheart]

60. Be careful saying such things here.

[budkin]

64. I'm over it at this point n/t

[Goodheart]

74. As am I, really

[realtruthflavor]

75. The Democratic Party is not a cult. All opinions are welcome. nt

[Miami Blue]

55. I call BS

[c-rational]

56. I tried to alert this post but the button does not work. At this stage this is less than pointless.

[Goodheart]

65. Gee...

Let's all hide in our bubble, shall we?

Some of us actually appreciate information, pleasant or not.

[Emile]

93. I don't appreciate propaganda designed to rip apart

the democratic party 3 1/2 months away from the election.

[Goodheart]

101. I doubt that's what you're actually seeing.

In any case, nobody can or should tell you what or what not to appreciate. But it seems many here are trying to deny that privilege to others. As for myself, I appreciate being informed.

[Emile]

102. I appreciate my primary vote being counted!

[Walleye]

61. So how many that were polled want Trump to step aside. I guess we'll never know.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

91. There's another OP with that number.

Around 60%

[Walleye]

95. After Nikki Haley's embarrassing, degrading speech and endorsement last night, I don't know what to say

[droidamus2]

69. Its easy

When they only asked the question 'should he drop out' it is easy for those that never backed him in the first place to say yes. I bet if they asked the followup question of 'how would you replace him at this point and with who'. Considering it is questionable that even Kamala Harris could just take over the Biden team and money anybody else would be starting at ground zero. Either we all get behind Biden at this point or we are looking at least 4 more years of Fat Donnie

[Big Blue Marble]

90. It is not so easy as to say we should all get behind Biden.

Many in the base have lost confidence. And that matters. They will vote for Biden,
without enthusiasm.The danger id that no one else will.

[Doodley]

73. This poll seems about right. Most people I know (Democrats) support Joe, but think a younger candidate would

communicate the message better and relate to younger voters.

[Big Blue Marble]

98. That is what I am hearing as well.

They will of course vote but are questioning his ability to win.

[AKwannabe]

76. I call BULLSHIT!

Fuck this info

[Abstractartist]

78. Hahaha

Don’t believe any poll about democrats right now. Hmmmm let’s see how this goes…

Question 1. Are you a Democrat?
Yes or No
Question 2. Do you think President Biden should drop out? Yes or No
Question 3. Are you lying?

[Liberal In Texas]

79. If the AP tells me that the sun is going to come up tomorrow...

etc. fill in your own metaphor.
That "News" service was once a legitimate news organization. Now they're a subtly biased right wing propaganda disseminator. So much so that awhile back they were the contracted top-of-the-hour news broadcast on Sirius/XM channel 127 - the progressive channel - and they got so biased and snarky about Democrats they got dropped by the programming people on Sirius/XM. When they were still on, I wanted to throw things at my radio when the AP "news" came on. Mostly I just changed the channel.

So this poll? Take it was a truck load of salt.

[calimary]

80. Nobody asked me.

[liberalmuse]

81. He is our nominee.

He will not and should not step aside. Fear will do us in. How about getting behind him and working like hell to make sure he wins? The naysayers have less than nothing to offer.

[travelingthrulife]

84. This is really shameful reporting

Classic propaganda

[wryter2000]

88. Jesus, will this never stop?

They spend years talking about how old he is and then, viola, when they poll voters, voters say he's too old.

[Eliot Rosewater]

100. Like for years, no DECADES mocking Hillary Clinton's comment about not staying

home and baking cookies, and that’s all it took to convince millions of people that should know better to either not vote for her or to bash her relentlessly.

She would’ve been the most progressive AND LIBERAL president of all time and she would’ve been absolutely fantastic !

[hamsterjill]

92. And I say yet again...

I wasn’t polled. Was anyone here polled?

Anyone know of anyone who was polled?

[Sunsky]

99. What the heck is wrong with us?

We had a whole primary for this? The msm is relentless. I don't trust any of their polls.

[VMA131Marine]

103. And how many of those who want Biden to drop out ...

Will vote for Trump instead.

The phrasing of the question is important and the reality is that Biden is still the Dems best chance to beat Trump. It’s easy to answer the question of whether Biden should drop out in isolation but Imagine if the question had been phrased including the statement “even if this means Trump will win.”

The simple mechanics of replacing Biden at this point are near impossible and the sooner we drop this line of thought the better.

It will be interesting to see if Trump gets any kind of bounce coming out of the convention; I’m thinking he stays flat at best.